The erroneous signals of detection theory

Integrating animal behaviour into research on multiple environmental stressors: a conceptual framework

While a large body of research has focused on the physiological effects of multiple environmental stressors, how behavioural and life-history plasticity mediate multiple-stressor effects remains underexplored. Behavioural plasticity can not only drive organism-level responses to stressors directly but can also mediate physiological responses. Here, we provide a conceptual framework incorporating four fundamental trade-offs that explicitly link animal behaviour to life-history-based pathways for energy allocation, shaping the impact of multiple stressors on fitness. We first address how small-scale behavioural changes can either mediate or drive conflicts between the effects of multiple stressors and alternative physiological responses. We then discuss how animal behaviour gives rise to three additional understudied and interrelated trade-offs: balancing the benefits and risks of obtaining the energy needed to cope with stressors, allocation of energy between life-history traits and stressor responses, and larger-scale escape from stressors in space or time via large-scale movement or dormancy. Finally, we outline how these trade-offs interactively affect fitness and qualitative ecological outcomes resulting from multiple stressors. Our framework suggests that explicitly considering animal behaviour should enrich our mechanistic understanding of stressor effects, help explain extensive context dependence observed in these effects, and highlight promising avenues for future empirical and theoretical research.

Integrating sensory ecology and predator-prey theory to understand animal responses to fire

Fire regimes are changing dramatically worldwide due to climate change, habitat conversion, and the suppression of Indigenous landscape management. Although there has been extensive work on plant responses to fire, including their adaptations to withstand fire and long-term effects of fire on plant communities, less is known about animal responses to fire. Ecologists lack a conceptual framework for understanding behavioural responses to fire, which can hinder wildlife conservation and management. Here, we integrate cue-response sensory ecology and predator-prey theory to predict and explain variation in if, when and how animals react to approaching fire. Inspired by the literature on prey responses to predation risk, this framework considers both fire-naïve and fire-adapted animals and follows three key steps: vigilance, cue detection and response. We draw from theory on vigilance tradeoffs, signal detection, speed-accuracy tradeoffs, fear generalization, neophobia and adaptive dispersal. We discuss how evolutionary history with fire, but also other selective pressures, such as predation risk, should influence animal behavioural responses to fire. We conclude by providing guidance for empiricists and outlining potential conservation applications.

The evolution of eavesdropping on heterospecific alarm calls: Relevance, reliability, and personal information

Interceptive eavesdropping on the alarm calls of heterospecifics provides crucial information about predators. Previous research suggests predator discrimination, call relevance, reliability, and reception explain when eavesdropping will evolve. However, there has been no quantitative analysis to scrutinize these principles, or how they interact. We develop a mathematical framework that formalizes the study of the key principles thought to select for eavesdropping. Interceptive eavesdropping appears to be greatly affected by the threat faced by caller and eavesdropper, as well as presence of informational noise affecting the detection of calls and predators. Accordingly, our model uses signal detection theory to examine when selection will favor alarm calling by a sender species and fleeing by an eavesdropping receiver species. We find eavesdropping is most strongly selected when (1) the receiver faces substantial threats, (2) species are ecologically similar, (3) senders often correctly discriminate threats, (4) receivers often correctly perceive calls, and (5) the receiver's personal discrimination of threats is poor. Furthermore, we find (6) that very high predation levels can select against eavesdropping because prey cannot continuously flee and must conserve energy. Reliability of heterospecific calls for identifying threats is thought to be important in selecting for eavesdropping. Consequently, we formally define reliability, showing its connection to specificity and sensitivity, clarifying how these quantities can be measured. We find that high call relevance, due to similar vulnerability to predators between species, strongly favors eavesdropping. This is because senders trade-off false alarms and missed predator detections in a way that is also favorable for the eavesdropper, by producing less of the costlier error. Unexpectedly, highly relevant calls increase the total number of combined errors and so have lower reliability. Expectedly, when noise greatly affects personally gathered cues to threats, but not heterospecific calls or detection of predators, eavesdropping is favored.

How honey bees make fast and accurate decisions

Honey bee ecology demands they make both rapid and accurate assessments of which flowers are most likely to offer them nectar or pollen. To understand the mechanisms of honey bee decision-making, we examined their speed and accuracy of both flower acceptance and rejection decisions. We used a controlled flight arena that varied both the likelihood of a stimulus offering reward and punishment and the quality of evidence for stimuli. We found that the sophistication of honey bee decision-making rivalled that reported for primates. Their decisions were sensitive to both the quality and reliability of evidence. Acceptance responses had higher accuracy than rejection responses and were more sensitive to changes in available evidence and reward likelihood. Fast acceptances were more likely to be correct than slower acceptances; a phenomenon also seen in primates and indicative that the evidence threshold for a decision changes dynamically with sampling time. To investigate the minimally sufficient circuitry required for these decision-making capacities, we developed a novel model of decision-making. Our model can be mapped to known pathways in the insect brain and is neurobiologically plausible. Our model proposes a system for robust autonomous decision-making with potential application in robotics.

Signal detection models as contextual bandits

Signal detection theory (SDT) has been widely applied to identify the optimal discriminative decisions of receivers under uncertainty. However, the approach assumes that decision-makers immediately adopt the appropriate acceptance threshold, even though the optimal response must often be learned. Here we recast the classical normal-normal (and power-law) signal detection model as a contextual multi-armed bandit (CMAB). Thus, rather than starting with complete information, decision-makers must infer how the magnitude of a continuous cue is related to the probability that a signaller is desirable, while simultaneously seeking to exploit the information they acquire. We explain how various CMAB heuristics resolve the trade-off between better estimating the underlying relationship and exploiting it. Next, we determined how naive human volunteers resolve signal detection problems with a continuous cue. As anticipated, a model of choice (accept/reject) that assumed volunteers immediately adopted the SDT-predicted acceptance threshold did not predict volunteer behaviour well. The Softmax rule for solving CMABs, with choices based on a logistic function of the expected payoffs, best explained the decisions of our volunteers but a simple midpoint algorithm also predicted decisions well under some conditions. CMABs offer principled parametric solutions to solving many classical SDT problems when decision-makers start with incomplete information.

The conditional approach to evaluating detection performance

In many applied single-point Yes/No signal-detection studies, the main interest is to evaluate the observer’s sensitivity, based on the observed rates of hits and false alarms. For example, Kostopoulou, Nurek, Cantarella et al. (2019, Medical Decision Making, 39, 21–31) presented general practitioners (GPs) with clinical vignettes of patients showing various cancer-related symptoms, and asked them to decide if urgent referral was required; the standard discrimination index d′ was calculated for each GP. An alternative conditional approach to statistical inference emphasizes explicitly the conditional nature of the inferences drawn, and argues on the basis of the response marginal (the number of “yes” responses) that was actually observed. It is closely related to, for example, Fisher’s exact test or the Rasch model in item response theory which have long been valuable and prominent in psychology. The conditional framework applied to single-point Yes/No detection studies is based on the noncentral hypergeometric sampling distribution and permits, for samples of any size, exact inference because it eliminates nuisance (i.e., bias) parameters by conditioning. We describe in detail how the conditional approach leads to conditional maximum likelihood sample estimates of sensitivity, and to exact confidence intervals for the underlying (log) odds ratio. We relate the conditional approach to classical (logistic) detection models also leading to analyses of the odds ratio, compare its statistical power to that of the unconditional approach, and conclude by discussing some of its pros and cons.

Mismatch Between Risk and Response May Amplify Lethal and Non-lethal Effects of Humans on Wild Animal Populations

Human activity has rapidly transformed the planet, leading to declines of animal populations around the world through a range of direct and indirect pathways. Humans have strong numerical effects on wild animal populations, as highly efficient hunters and through unintentional impacts of human activity and development. Human disturbance also induces costly non-lethal effects by changing the behavior of risk-averse animals. Here, we suggest that the unique strength of these lethal and non-lethal effects is amplified by mismatches between the nature of risk associated with anthropogenic stimuli and the corresponding response by wild animals. We discuss the unique characteristics of cues associated with anthropogenic stimuli in the context of animal ecology and evolutionary history to explore why and when animals fail to appropriately (a) detect, (b) assess, and (c) respond to both benign and lethal stimuli. We then explore the costs of over-response to a benign stimulus (Type I error) and under-response to a lethal stimulus (Type II error), which can scale up to affect individual fitness and ultimately drive population dynamics and shape ecological interactions. Finally, we highlight avenues for future research and discuss conservation measures that can better align animal perception and response with risk to mitigate unintended consequences of human disturbance.

Temperament, Plasticity, and Emotions in Defensive Behaviour of Paca (Mammalia, Hystricognatha)

Simple Summary

The paca (Cuniculus paca), a Neotropical caviomorph rodent, provides the most sought-after game meat in all its range, and it therefore faces high hunting pressure and consequent poor welfare. The species is categorised as having a conservation status of “least concern” and appears resilient to over-hunting by humans, which may be related to individuals’ behavioural characteristics. To investigate this, we submitted captive pacas to temperament (personality) tests designed to assess individual responses to short challenges and to evaluate individuals’ emotional states. Our results showed that paca with a “restless” temperament performed more abnormal behaviour and less exploratory behaviour in a test of defensive behaviour, which elevations in faecal glucocorticoid metabolites indicated to be stressful. Plasticity in defensive behaviour was inferred from changes in behavioural responses and apparently rapid adaptation to different levels of risk. Our results suggest that individual differences and consistency of behavioural responses displayed by paca toward challenges may reflect a generally flexible and successful defensive behavioural response that underpins the paca’s survival, despite the threat of overhunting throughout its range.

Abstract

Within a species, some individuals are better able to cope with threatening environments than others. Paca (Cuniculus paca) appear resilient to over-hunting by humans, which may be related to the behavioural plasticity shown by this species. To investigate this, we submitted captive pacas to temperament tests designed to assess individual responses to short challenges and judgement bias tests (JBT) to evaluate individuals’ affective states. Results indicated across-time and context stability in closely correlated “agitated”, “fearful” and “tense” responses; this temperament dimension was labelled “restless”. Individual “restless” scores predicted responses to novelty, although not to simulated chasing and capture by humans in a separate modified defence test battery (MDTB). Restless animals were more likely to show a greater proportion of positive responses to an ambiguous cue during JBT after the MDTB. Plasticity in defensive behaviour was inferred from changes in behavioural responses and apparently rapid adaptation to challenge in the different phases of the MDTB. The results indicate that both temperament and behavioural plasticity may play a role in influencing paca responses to risky situations. Therefore, our study highlights the importance of understanding the role of individual temperament traits and behavioural plasticity in order to better interpret the animals’ conservation status and vulnerabilities.

Reward and punisher experience alter rodent decision-making in a judgement bias task

The influence of affective states on decision-making is likely to be complex. Negative states resulting from experience of punishing events have been hypothesised to generate enhanced expectations of future punishment and ‘pessimistic’/risk-averse decisions. However, they may also influence how decision-outcomes are valued. Such influences may further depend on whether decisions at hand are germane to the rewards or punishers that induced the affective state in the first place. Here we attempt to dissect these influences by presenting either many or few rewards or punishers of different types (sucrose vs air-puff; 50 kHz vs 22 kHz ultrasonic vocalisations) to rats, and investigating their subsequent decisions in a judgement bias task that employed sucrose and air-puff as decision outcomes. Rats that received many sucrose pellets prior to testing were more risk-averse than those receiving many air-puffs. Ultrasonic vocalisations did not alter decision-making. Computational analysis revealed a higher weighting of punishers relative to rewards (in agreement with findings from a separate behavioural task) and a bias towards the risk-averse response following pre-test sucrose compared to pre-test air-puff. Thus, in this study reward and punisher manipulation of affective state appeared to alter decision-making by influencing both expectation and valuation of decision-outcomes in a domain-specific way.

The Hidden Talents Approach: Theoretical and Methodological Challenges

It is well established that people living in adverse conditions tend to score lower on a variety of social and cognitive tests. However, recent research shows that people may also develop 'hidden talents', that is, mental abilities that are enhanced through adversity. The hidden talents program sets out to document these abilities, their development, and their manifestations in different contexts. Although this approach has led to new insights and findings, it also comes with theoretical and methodological challenges. Here, we discuss six of these challenges. We conclude that the hidden talents approach is promising, but there is much scope for refining ideas and testing assumptions. We discuss our goal to advance this research program with integrity despite the current incentives in science.

The evolution of conspecific acceptance threshold models

How do organisms balance different types of recognition errors when cues associated with desirable and undesirable individuals or resources overlap? This is a fundamental question of signal detection theory (SDT). As applied in sociobiology, SDT is not limited to a single context or animal taxon, therefore its application can span what may be considered dissimilar systems. One of the applications of SDT is the suite of acceptance threshold models proposed by Reeve (1989), which analysed how individuals should balance acceptance and rejection errors in social discrimination decisions across a variety of recognition contexts, distinguished by how these costs and benefits relatively combine. We conducted a literature review to evaluate whether these models' specific predictions have been upheld. By examining over 350 research papers, we quantify how Reeve's models (Reeve 1989 Am. Nat. 133, 407-435 (doi:10.1086/284926)) have influenced the field of ecological and behavioural recognition systems research. We found overall empirical support for the predictions of the specific models proposed by Reeve, and argue for further expansion of their applications into more diverse taxonomic and additional recognition contexts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Signal detection theory in recognition systems: from evolving models to experimental tests'.

Signal detection: applying analysis methods from psychology to animal behaviour

Conspecific acceptance thresholds (Reeve 1989 Am. Nat. 133, 407-435), which have been widely applied to explain ecological behaviour in animals, proposed how sensory information, prior information and the costs of decisions determine actions. Signal detection theory (Green & Swets 1966 Signal detection theory and psychophysics; SDT), which forms the basis of CAT models, has been widely used in psychological studies to partition the ability to discriminate sensory information from the action made as a result of it. In this article, we will review the application of SDT in interpreting the behaviour of laboratory animals trained in operant conditioning tasks and then consider its potential in ecological studies of animal behaviour in natural environments. Focusing on the nest-mate recognition systems exhibited by social insects, we show how the quantitative application of SDT has the potential to transform acceptance rate data into independent indices of cue sensitivity and decision criterion (also known as the acceptance threshold). However, further tests of the assumptions underlying SDT analysis are required. Overall, we argue that SDT, as conventionally applied in psychological studies, may provide clearer insights into the mechanistic basis of decision making and information processing in behavioural ecology. This article is part of the theme issue 'Signal detection theory in recognition systems: from evolving models to experimental tests'.

An ecological framework of neophobia: from cells to organisms to populations

Neophobia is the fear of novel stimuli or situations. This phenotype has recently received much ecological attention, primarily in the context of decision making. Here, we explore neophobia across biological levels of organisation, first describing types of neophobia among animals and the underlying causes of neophobia, highlighting high levels of risk and uncertainty as key drivers. We place neophobia in the framework of Error Management Theory and Signal Detection Theory, showing how increases in overall risk and uncertainty can lead to costly non-responses towards novel threats unless individuals lower their response threshold and become neophobic. We then discuss how neophobic behaviour translates into population and evolutionary consequences before introducing neophobia-like processes at the cellular level, where some phenomena such as allergy and autoimmunity can parallel neophobic behaviour. Finally, we discuss neophobia attenuation, considering how a sudden change in the environment from dangerous to safe can lead to problematic over-responses (i.e. the 'maladaptive defensive carry-over' hypothesis), and discuss treatment methods for such over-responses. We anticipate that bridging the concept of neophobia with a process-centered perspective can facilitate a transfer of insight across organisational levels.

The Cognitive Ecology of Stimulus Ambiguity: A Predator-Prey Perspective

Organisms face the cognitive challenge of making decisions based on imperfect information. Predators and prey, in particular, are confronted with ambiguous stimuli when foraging and avoiding attacks. These challenges are accentuated by variation imposed by environmental, physiological, and cognitive factors. While the cognitive factors influencing perceived ambiguity are often assumed to be fixed, contemporary findings reveal that perceived ambiguity is instead the dynamic outcome of interactive cognitive processes. Here, we present a framework that integrates recent advances in neurophysiology and sensory ecology with a classic decision-making model, signal detection theory (SDT), to understand the cognitive mechanisms that shape perceived stimulus ambiguity in predators and prey. Since stimulus ambiguity is pervasive, the framework discussed here provides insights that extend into nonforaging contexts.

Prey Responses to Exotic Predators: Effects of Old Risks and New Cues

Exotic predators can have major negative impacts on prey. Importantly, prey vary considerably in their behavioral responses to exotic predators. Factors proposed to explain variation in prey response to exotic predators include the similarity of new predators to familiar, native predators, the prevalence and diversity of predators in a prey's past, and variation in a prey's innate ability to discriminate between predators and safety. While these factors have been put forth verbally in the literature, no theory exists that combines these hypotheses in a common conceptual framework using a unified behavioral model. Here, we formalize existing verbal arguments by modeling variation in prey responses to new predators in a state-dependent detection theory framework. We find that while some conventional wisdom is upheld, novel predictions emerge. As expected, prey respond poorly to exotic predators that do not closely resemble familiar predators. Furthermore, a history with more abundant or diverse native predators can lessen effects of some exotic predators on prey; however, under some conditions, the opposite prediction emerges. Also, prey that evolved in situations where they easily discriminate between safe and dangerous situations can be more susceptible to novel predators.

Predator-Prey Interactions in the Anthropocene: Reconciling Multiple Aspects of Novelty

Ecological novelty, when conditions deviate from a historical baseline, is increasingly common as humans modify habitats and communities across the globe. Our ability to anticipate how novelty changes predator-prey interactions will likely hinge upon the explicit evaluation of multiple forms of novelty, rather than a focus on single forms of novelty (e.g., invasive predators or climate change). We provide a framework to assess how multiple forms of novelty can act, alone or in concert, on components shared by all predator-prey interactions (the predation sequence). Considering how novelty acts throughout the predation sequence could improve our understanding of predator-prey interactions in an increasingly novel world, identify important knowledge gaps, and guide conservation decisions in the Anthropocene.

Risk allocation: acute and chronic predator exposure have contrasting effects on Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia) singing behaviour

Increasing the danger posed by predators may cause prey animals to alter their behaviour. For example, they may be more vigilant and so feed more slowly. Breeding male Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia (A. Wilson, 1810)) spend much time in conspicuous, loud song, which is an important behaviour for territorial defense and for mate attraction. We measured their singing behaviour in relation to both chronic (active Cooper’s Hawk (Accipiter cooperii (Bonaparte, 1828)) nest nearby) and acute (playback of hawk calls) predator exposure. We found that proximity to a Cooper’s Hawk nest had little or no influence. In contrast, the response to acute exposure was strong and immediate: Song Sparrows reduced the song rate and the proportion of time spent singing, lowered perch height, and increased concealment. The decline in the amount of song during the few minutes following playback attributable to the acute exposure was 34.6%. We analyze these results in light of theories about how animals adjust risk taking in response to predation danger. Given that the numbers of their predators have risen steadily for the past few decades and affect the level of singing, we consider the implications for trend estimates of songbird populations based on surveys using auditory methods.

Quorums enable optimal pooling of independent judgements in biological systems

Collective decision-making is ubiquitous, and majority-voting and the Condorcet Jury Theorem pervade thinking about collective decision-making. Thus, it is typically assumed that majority-voting is the best possible decision mechanism, and that scenarios exist where individually-weak decision-makers should not pool information. Condorcet and its applications implicitly assume that only one kind of error can be made, yet signal detection theory shows two kinds of errors exist, 'false positives' and 'false negatives'. We apply signal detection theory to collective decision-making to show that majority voting is frequently sub-optimal, and can be optimally replaced by quorum decision-making. While quorums have been proposed to resolve within-group conflicts, or manage speed-accuracy trade-offs, our analysis applies to groups with aligned interests undertaking single-shot decisions. Our results help explain the ubiquity of quorum decision-making in nature, relate the use of sub- and super-majority quorums to decision ecology, and may inform the design of artificial decision-making systems.

Editorial note

This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).

The "Clinician's illusion" and the epidemiology, diagnosis and treatment of depressive disorders

BACKGROUND

Depression often occurs in association with stressful events. However, people with depressive disorders may experience episodes in response to minor stressors or "out of the blue." Similar episodes can occur in people who do not have a disorder in response to severe events. This plurality of symptom patterns, occurring as it does in the absence of precise demarcation from normality has led to controversy over how depressive disorders should be defined, how common they are, and when treatment should be offered. Much of the controversy, however, may be illusory, arising from a tendency to view depressive disorders as defects or disease processes (the "clincian's illusion"). Avoiding the illusion involves understanding depression as a defense rather than a defect and requires consideration of aspects of signal detection theory and the associated "smoke detector" principle. This perspective may help to understand aspects of depressive disorders that are otherwise puzzling and controversial.

METHODS

In this paper, implications of signal detection theory and the "smoke detector principle" are explored: (1) conceptually, (2) using calculations performed in a spreadsheet and (3) using an agent-based model. Depressive episodes are conceptualized or represented as all-or-nothing phenomena activated in response to stressful life events. These events occur in an environment that also includes variable levels of baseline stress, creating a signal detection problem. The agent-based framework allows interaction with the environment as agents attempt to achieve an ideal level of adaptation.

RESULTS

The smoke detector principle, if valid, may explain otherwise puzzling and controversial features of the depressive disorders, such as their lack of precise demarcation from normality, the role of life events and stressors and their patterns of prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Signal detection concepts help to avoid the "clinician's illusion" in which aspects of functioning of the body's defenses are mistaken for a disease entity or defect. These principles emphasize inevitable difficulties that are encountered in attempts to conceptualize depressive disorders without reference to the environment in which they occur, and without addressing possible stochastic (randomly varying) elements. Because of the "clinicians illusion", current research priorities, as well as diagnosis and treatment strategies, may be flawed.