Host size and proximity to diseased neighbours drive the spread of a coral disease outbreak in Hawai'i

Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk: A new product for early warning and management

Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near-real-time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program. This product produces weekly forecasts for a moving window of 6 months at a resolution of ~5 km based on quantile regression forests. The forecasts show superior skill at predicting disease risk on withheld survey data from 2012 to 2020 compared with predecessor forecast systems, with the biggest improvements shown for predicting disease risk at mid- to high-disease levels. Most of the prediction uncertainty arises from model uncertainty, so prediction accuracy and precision do not improve substantially with shorter lead times. This result arises because many predictor variables cannot be accurately forecasted, which is a common challenge across ecosystems. Weekly forecasts and scenarios can be explored through an online decision support tool and data explorer, co-developed with end-user groups to improve use and understanding of ecological forecasts. The models provide near-real-time disease risk assessments and allow users to refine predictions and assess intervention scenarios. This work advances the field of ecological forecasting with real-world complexities and, in doing so, better supports near-term decision making for coral reef ecosystem managers and stakeholders. Secondarily, we identify clear needs and provide recommendations to further enhance our ability to forecast coral disease risk.

Recent advancements in coral health, microbiome interactions and climate change

Corals are the visible indicators of the disasters induced by global climate change and anthropogenic activities and have become a highly vulnerable ecosystem on the verge of extinction. Multiple stressors could act individually or synergistically which results in small to large scale tissue degradation, reduced coral covers, and makes the corals vulnerable to various diseases. The coralline diseases are like the Chicken pox in humans because they spread hastily throughout the coral ecosystem and can devastate the coral cover formed over centuries in an abbreviated time. The extinction of the entire reef ecosystem will alter the ocean and earth's amalgam of biogeochemical cycles causing a threat to the entire planet. The current manuscript provides an overview of the recent advancement in coral health, microbiome interactions and climate change. Culture dependent and independent approaches in studying the microbiome of corals, the diseases caused by microorganisms, and the reservoirs of coral pathogens are also discussed. Finally, we discuss the possibilities of protecting the coral reefs from diseases through microbiome transplantation and the capabilities of remote sensing in monitoring their health status.

Reconstitution and Transmission of Gut Microbiomes and Their Genes between Generations

Microbiomes are transmitted between generations by a variety of different vertical and/or horizontal modes, including vegetative reproduction (vertical), via female germ cells (vertical), coprophagy and regurgitation (vertical and horizontal), physical contact starting at birth (vertical and horizontal), breast-feeding (vertical), and via the environment (horizontal). Analyses of vertical transmission can result in false negatives (failure to detect rare microbes) and false positives (strain variants). In humans, offspring receive most of their initial gut microbiota vertically from mothers during birth, via breast-feeding and close contact. Horizontal transmission is common in marine organisms and involves selectivity in determining which environmental microbes can colonize the organism's microbiome. The following arguments are put forth concerning accurate microbial transmission: First, the transmission may be of functions, not necessarily of species; second, horizontal transmission may be as accurate as vertical transmission; third, detection techniques may fail to detect rare microbes; lastly, microbiomes develop and reach maturity with their hosts. In spite of the great variation in means of transmission discussed in this paper, microbiomes and their functions are transferred from one generation of holobionts to the next with fidelity. This provides a strong basis for each holobiont to be considered a unique biological entity and a level of selection in evolution, largely maintaining the uniqueness of the entity and conserving the species from one generation to the next.

Spatial and cross-seasonal patterns of coral diseases in reefs of Taiwan: high prevalence and regional variation

Although research on coral diseases is increasing worldwide, it remains limited in Taiwan. Taiwan is located at the Tropic of Cancer and contains both tropical and subtropical reefs. We conducted spatial and cross-seasonal surveys in Taiwan in 2018 and identified 7 types of disease and nondisease lesions and 6 potential factors influencing coral health. The overall mean prevalence of disease and nondisease lesions varied considerably across the reef regions, and host susceptibility differed among the coral taxa. The overall mean prevalence of disease and nondisease lesions was highest in Kenting (mean ± SEM: 8.58 ± 1.81%) and lowest on the Southern Islands (2.12 ± 0.73%). Although the prevalence of diseases did not differ significantly between the seasons, cyanobacteria-related diseases-including black band disease (BBD), BBD-like syndrome, and other cyanobacterial syndromes-were slightly more prevalent in autumn than in spring. Furthermore, 3 of the potential factors influencing coral health (i.e. turf algae, bioeroding sponges, and coral bleaching) were strong predictors of disease and nondisease lesion prevalence. These results advance our understanding of coral disease ecology in Taiwan and highlight the need for further research on the correlations between diseases, hosts, and environment.

Ecological Factors Mediate Immunity and Parasitic Co-Infection in Sea Fan Octocorals

The interplay among environment, demography, and host-parasite interactions is a challenging frontier. In the ocean, fundamental changes are occurring due to anthropogenic pressures, including increased disease outbreaks on coral reefs. These outbreaks include multiple parasites, calling into question how host immunity functions in this complex milieu. Our work investigates the interplay of factors influencing co-infection in the Caribbean sea fan octocoral, Gorgonia ventalina, using metrics of the innate immune response: cellular immunity and expression of candidate immune genes. We used existing copepod infections and live pathogen inoculation with the Aspergillus sydowii fungus, detecting increased expression of the immune recognition gene Tachylectin 5A (T5A) in response to both parasites. Cellular immunity increased by 8.16% in copepod infections compared to controls and single Aspergillus infections. We also detected activation of cellular immunity in reef populations, with a 13.6% increase during copepod infections. Cellular immunity was similar in the field and in the lab, increasing with copepod infections and not the fungus. Amoebocyte density and the expression of T5A and a matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) gene were also positively correlated across all treatments and colonies, irrespective of parasitic infection. We then assessed the scaling of immune metrics to population-level disease patterns and found random co-occurrence of copepods and fungus across 15 reefs in Puerto Rico. The results suggest immune activation by parasites may not alter parasite co-occurrence if factors other than immunity prevail in structuring parasite infection. We assessed non-immune factors in the field and found that sea fan colony size predicted infection by the copepod parasite. Moreover, the effect of infection on immunity was small relative to that of site differences and live coral cover, and similar to the effect of reproductive status. While additional immune data would shed light on the extent of this pattern, ecological factors may play a larger role than immunity in controlling parasite patterns in the wild. Parsing the effects of immunity and ecological factors in octocoral co-infection shows how disease depends on more than one host and one parasite and explores the application of co-infection research to a colonial marine organism.

Evaluating the small-scale epidemiology of the stony-coral -tissue-loss-disease in the middle Florida Keys

Along the Florida reef tract, stony-coral-tissue-loss disease (SCTLD) has caused extensive mortality of more than 20 scleractinian coral species. The pathogen is unknown, but its epizoology indicates that the disease, facilitated by water currents, has progressed linearly along the tract, affecting reefs at the scale of hundreds of kilometers. To inform ongoing disease mitigation efforts, we examined the small-scale spatial and temporal epidemiology of SCTLD. We established a series of sites in the middle Florida Keys at offshore and inshore locations that had not yet shown signs of SCTLD. We then conducted high-frequency monitoring from February 2018 through September 2019 and documented the onset of SCTLD and its progression through the sites. SCTLD was first observed at one site during early February 2018 and by early March 2018 all sites showed signs of the disease. A dynamic multistate model suggested that disease transmission was independent of coral density and found little evidence of a positive association between a colony showing signs of SCTLD and the condition or distance to its neighboring colonies. The model did, however, indicate that the probability of a colony showing signs of SCTLD increased with increasing colony surface area. These results are consistent with the water-borne transmission of a pathogen that progressed rapidly through the survey area. However, by the end of our survey the progression of SCTLD had slowed, particularly at inshore sites. Many affected colonies no longer exhibited progressive tissue mortality typical of the disease, suggesting the existence of differentially resilient colonies or coral communities, meriting their use for future coral rescue and propagation and disease research. These results are useful for refining ongoing SCTLD mitigation strategies, particularly by determining when disease rates are sufficiently low for direct intervention efforts designed to arrest disease progression on individual coral colonies will be most effective.

Case-control design identifies ecological drivers of endemic coral diseases

Endemic disease transmission is an important ecological process that is challenging to study because of low occurrence rates. Here, we investigate the ecological drivers of two coral diseases-growth anomalies and tissue loss-affecting five coral species. We first show that a statistical framework called the case-control study design, commonly used in epidemiology but rarely applied to ecology, provided high predictive accuracy (67-82%) and disease detection rates (60-83%) compared with a traditional statistical approach that yielded high accuracy (98-100%) but low disease detection rates (0-17%). Using this framework, we found evidence that 1) larger corals have higher disease risk; 2) shallow reefs with low herbivorous fish abundance, limited water motion, and located adjacent to watersheds with high fertilizer and pesticide runoff promote low levels of growth anomalies, a chronic coral disease; and 3) wave exposure, stream exposure, depth, and low thermal stress are associated with tissue loss disease risk during interepidemic periods. Variation in risk factors across host-disease pairs suggests that either different pathogens cause the same gross lesions in different species or that the same disease may arise in different species under different ecological conditions.