Projected climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: more than species numbers

A link between evolution and society fostering the UN sustainable development goals

Given the multitude of challenges Earth is facing, sustainability science is of key importance to our continued existence. Evolution is the fundamental biological process underlying the origin of all biodiversity. This phylogenetic diversity fosters the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change, and provides numerous resources to society, and options for the future. Genetic diversity within species is also key to the ability of populations to evolve and adapt to environmental change. Yet, the value of evolutionary processes and the consequences of their impairment have not generally been considered in sustainability research. We argue that biological evolution is important for sustainability and that the concepts, theory, data, and methodological approaches used in evolutionary biology can, in crucial ways, contribute to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We discuss how evolutionary principles are relevant to understanding, maintaining, and improving Nature Contributions to People (NCP) and how they contribute to the SDGs. We highlight specific applications of evolution, evolutionary theory, and evolutionary biology's diverse toolbox, grouped into four major routes through which evolution and evolutionary insights can impact sustainability. We argue that information on both within-species evolutionary potential and among-species phylogenetic diversity is necessary to predict population, community, and ecosystem responses to global change and to make informed decisions on sustainable production, health, and well-being. We provide examples of how evolutionary insights and the tools developed by evolutionary biology can not only inspire and enhance progress on the trajectory to sustainability, but also highlight some obstacles that hitherto seem to have impeded an efficient uptake of evolutionary insights in sustainability research and actions to sustain SDGs. We call for enhanced collaboration between sustainability science and evolutionary biology to understand how integrating these disciplines can help achieve the sustainable future envisioned by the UN SDGs.

Bowler D, Hof C. Global change impacts on bird biodiversity in South Asia: potential effects of future land-use and climate change on avian species richness in Pakistan

Evaluating the impact of future changes in land-use and climate on species communities, especially species richness, is one of the most important challenges of current research in ecology and conservation. The impact of environmental changes on species richness depends on its sensitivity (i.e., how strongly a given level of change influences the ecological community) and its exposure (i.e., the amount of change that occurs). To examine the sensitivity, exposure, and potential impact of future environmental conditions on bird communities, we compiled data on bird species richness for Pakistan-a neglected region in macro- or country-scale studies. Since bird species richness strongly varies across seasons due to the seasonal occurrence of migratory species in winter, we compared both wintering (migratory plus resident species) and breeding (resident species only) bird richness. We found breeding and wintering species richness to be sensitive to temperature, precipitation and rainfed cropland by being positively related to these factors. Exposure varied regionally, with projected temperature changes being most profound in northern regions while the strongest projected precipitation changes occurred in central and southern regions. The projected impact of future environmental change were highly heterogeneous across the country and differed between the wintering and breeding communities. Overall, the most negatively impacted region was projected to be the Khyber Pakhtunkha province in the North of Pakistan, due to reductions in precipitation and rainfed cropland, resulting in a projected negative impact, especially on wintering species richness. By highlighting the regional and seasonal bird communities most at risk, our findings provide useful information for policy makers to help devise new policies for mitigating negative impacts of future environmental changes on birds within Pakistan.