Spring arrival of the common cuckoo at breeding grounds is strongly determined by environmental conditions in tropical Africa

Climate change is associated with asynchrony in arrival between two sympatric cuckoos and both host arrival and prey emergence

Matching the timing of spring arrival to the breeding grounds with hosts and prey is crucial for migratory brood parasites such as cuckoos. Previous studies have focused mostly on phenological mismatch between a single cuckoo species and its hosts but information regarding climate-driven mismatch between multiple sympatric cuckoo species and their hosts and invertebrate prey is still lacking. Here, we analysed long-term data (1988-2023) on the first arrival date of two declining migratory cuckoo species and their 14 migratory host species breeding in sympatry and prey emergence date in Tatarstan (southeast Russia). We found that the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus; wintering in Africa) generally arrived on breeding grounds earlier than the oriental cuckoo (Cuculus optatus; wintering in southeast Asia and Australia). Both cuckoos have advanced their arrival dates over 36 years but less than their hosts, potentially resulting in an increasing arrival mismatch between cuckoos and their hosts. Moreover, cuckoo arrival advanced less than the emergence date of their prey over time. These observations indicate that climate change may disrupt co-fluctuation in the phenology of important life stages between multiple sympatric brood parasites, their hosts and prey with potential cascading consequences for population dynamics of involved species.

Combining remote sensing and tracking data to quantify species' cumulative exposure to anthropogenic change

Identifying when and where organisms are exposed to anthropogenic change is crucial for diagnosing the drivers of biodiversity declines and implementing effective conservation measures. Accurately measuring individual-scale exposure to anthropogenic impacts across the annual cycle as they move across continents requires an approach that is both spatially and temporally explicit-now achievable through recent parallel advances in remote-sensing and individual tracking technologies. We combined 10 years of tracking data for a long-distance migrant, (common cuckoo, Cuculus canorus), with multi-dimensional remote-sensed spatial datasets encompassing thirteen relevant anthropogenic impacts (including infrastructure, hunting, habitat change, and climate change), to quantify mean hourly and total accumulated exposure of tracked individuals to anthropogenic change across each stage of the annual cycle. Although mean hourly exposure to anthropogenic change was greatest in the breeding stage, accumulated exposure to changes associated with direct mortality risks (e.g., built infrastructure) and with climate were greatest during the wintering stage, which comprised 63% of the annual cycle on average for tracked individuals. Exposure to anthropogenic change varied considerably within and between migratory flyways, but there were no clear between-flyway differences in overall exposure during migration stages. However, more easterly autumn migratory routes were significantly associated with lower subsequent exposure to anthropogenic impacts in the winter stage. Cumulative change exposure was not significantly associated with recent local-scale population trends in the breeding range, possibly because cuckoos from shared breeding areas may follow divergent migration routes and therefore encounter very different risk landscapes. Our study highlights the potential for the integration of tracking data and high-resolution remote sensing to generate valuable and detailed new insights into the impacts of environmental change on wild species.

Significantly Earlier Spring Migration in Most Bird Species at the Eastern Limit of Europe

The first arrival dates of 31 species of migrant birds in the Tatarstan Republic of Russia were monitored for the 34-year period from 1989-2022. Trends in first arrival date were evaluated using regression against the year value. Patterns in arrival data with respect to species traits (habitat, migration distance, body weight, etc.) were evaluated using redundancy analysis. Relationships between first arrival dates and Tatarstan temperatures were also evaluated using regression methods of first-arrival date on monthly mean temperatures. Almost all (28 of 31) species revealed a significantly earlier migration arrival date; however, associations between arrival patterns and species traits were equivocal. Warmer temperatures were significantly associated with earlier arrival in 26 of the 31 species, but the relationship was insufficient to explain the average 11-day advance in species. For these species and in this location only the timing and location of arrival are well recorded; the exact wintering areas and migration routes, and the timing of these phases are less well understood. When these become better known, an investigation of the influence of environmental conditions (including temperature) on departure timing and passage timing and speed is recommended.