The 'algebra of evolution': the Robertson-Price identity and viability selection for body mass in a wild bird population

The missing fraction problem as an episodes of selection problem

In evolutionary quantitative genetics, the missing fraction problem refers to a specific kind of bias in parameters estimated later in life that occurs when nonrandom subsets of phenotypes are missing from the population due to prior viability selection on correlated traits. The missing fraction problem thus arises when the following hold: (a) viability selection and (b) correlation between later-life traits and traits important for early-life survival. Although it is plausible that these conditions are widespread in wild populations, this problem has received little empirical attention. This may be natural: the problem could appear intractable, given that it is impossible to measure phenotypes of individuals that have previously died. However, it is not impossible to correctly measure lifetime selection, or correctly predict evolutionary trajectories, of later-life traits in the presence of the missing fraction. Two basic strategies are available. First, given phenotypic data on selected early life traits, well established but underused episodes of selection theory can yield correct values of evolutionary parameters throughout life. Second, when traits subjected to early-life viability selection are not known and/or measured, it is possible to use the genetic association of later-life traits with early-life viability to correctly infer important information about the consequences of prior viability selection for later-life traits. By carefully reviewing the basic nature of the missing fraction problem, and describing the tractable solutions to the problem, we hope that future studies will be able to be better designed to cope with the (likely pervasive) consequences of early-life viability selection.

The magnitude of selection on growth varies among years and increases under warming conditions in a subarctic seabird

Because of ongoing rapid climate change, many ecosystems are becoming both warmer and more variable, and these changes are likely to alter the magnitude and variability of natural selection acting on wild populations. Critically, changes and fluctuations in selection can impact both population demography and evolutionary change. Therefore, predicting the impacts of climate change depends on understanding the magnitude and variation in selection on traits across different life stages and environments. Long-term experiments in wild settings are a great opportunity to determine the impact of environmental conditions on selection. Here we examined variability in the strength of selection on size traits of nestling black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in a 25-year study including a food supplementation experiment on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Using mixed effect models, we examined the annual variability of stage-specific and resource-specific selection gradients across 25 years. We found that (a) larger and heavier hatchlings were the most likely to survive during early ontogeny, (b) non-food supplemented younger nestlings in a brood experienced the strongest selection, and (c) warmer conditions increased the magnitude of selection on nestling mass and affected non-food supplemented and second-hatched nestlings the most. Our results suggested that variable resource dynamics likely caused some of the changes in selection from year to year and that warming conditions increased the strength of selection on subarctic seabird growth. However, our experimental manipulation revealed that local environmental heterogeneity could buffer the selection expected from broader climatic changes. Consequently, understanding the interactive effects of local conditions and general changes in climate seems likely to improve our ability to predict future selection gradients.

Selection and the direction of phenotypic evolution

Predicting adaptive phenotypic evolution depends on invariable selection gradients and on the stability of the genetic covariances between the component traits of the multivariate phenotype. We describe the evolution of six traits of locomotion behavior and body size in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans for 50 generations of adaptation to a novel environment. We show that the direction of adaptive multivariate phenotypic evolution can be predicted from the ancestral selection differentials, particularly when the traits were measured in the new environment. Interestingly, the evolution of individual traits does not always occur in the direction of selection, nor are trait responses to selection always homogeneous among replicate populations. These observations are explained because the phenotypic dimension with most of the ancestral standing genetic variation only partially aligns with the phenotypic dimension under directional selection. These findings validate selection theory and suggest that the direction of multivariate adaptive phenotypic evolution is predictable for tens of generations.

Do the ages of parents or helpers affect offspring fitness in a cooperatively breeding bird?

Age-related changes in parental phenotypes or genotypes can impact offspring fitness, but separating germline from nongermline transgenerational effects of ageing is difficult for wild populations. Further, in cooperatively breeding species, in addition to parental ages, the age of 'helpers' attending offspring may also affect juvenile performance. Using a 30-year study of a cooperative breeder with very high rates of extra-pair paternity, the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus), we investigated the effects of maternal, paternal and helper ages on three measures of offspring performance: nestling weight, juvenile survival to independence and recruitment to the breeding population. Mothers with a longer lifespan had offspring with higher juvenile survival, indicating selective disappearance, but the effect of maternal age on juvenile survival was of similar magnitude but negative. For extra-pair offspring, there was no evidence of any effect of the ages of either the genetic sire or the cuckolded 'social' father. However, for within-pair offspring, there was a positive effect of paternal age on juvenile survival, which we suggest may be driven by sexual selection. There were positive associations between the average age of helpers attending a nest and two of the three aspects of offspring performance; these effects were stronger than any of the effects of parental age. In general, the multiple associations between offspring fitness and the ages of adults around them appeared to be driven more by age-related changes in environmental effects than by age-related changes in the germline.