Looking back on biodiversity change: lessons for the road ahead

Divergent alpha and beta diversity trends of soil nematode fauna along gradients of environmental change in the Carpathian Ecoregion

There is a significant lack of research on how climate change influences long-term temporal trends in the biodiversity of soil organisms. Nematodes may be specifically adequate to test soil biodiversity changes, because they account for ~80% of all Metazoans and play key roles in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we report on the first synthesis study focused on temporal trends of nematode fauna over a period of 14 years (1986-1999) across the Carpathian Ecoregion. We provide new evidence that wetter conditions associated to global change contributes to driving nematode diversity at genus/family level. We observed opposite trends in soil nematode alpha diversity (increase) and beta diversity (decrease) consistent across ecosystem types and soil horizons, providing strong evidence for the influence of climate change on soil biodiversity at large spatial scales. An increase in the community functional uniformity along with a decline in beta diversity indicated more homogenous soil conditions over time. The Soil Stability Index (metric devised to assess soil homeostasis based on the functional composition of nematode communities) increased over time, indicating a decline of soil disturbances and more complex soil food webs. Our results highlight the importance of nematodes as powerful indicators of soil biodiversity trends affected by multiple facets of environmental change in long-term soil monitoring.

Understanding and counteracting the denial of insect biodiversity loss

Biodiversity loss is occurring globally with negative impacts on ecosystem function and human well-being. There is a scientific consensus that diverse environmental and anthropogenic factors are altering different components of insect biodiversity, with changes occurring at all levels of biological organisation. Here, we describe how uncertainty around specific trends and the semantics of 'decline' in relation to insect biodiversity have been leveraged by denialist campaigns to manufacture doubt around the insect biodiversity crisis. Disinformation is one of the biggest threats to social cohesion and environmental integrity globally. We argue that scientists, academic institutions, policymakers, and journalists must combat denialism by relying on robust research, supporting efforts to communicate scientific uncertainty more effectively, and build consensus on the global impacts of insect biodiversity loss.

The global human impact on biodiversity

Human activities drive a wide range of environmental pressures, including habitat change, pollution and climate change, resulting in unprecedented effects on biodiversity1,2. However, despite decades of research, generalizations on the dimensions and extent of human impacts on biodiversity remain ambiguous. Mixed views persist on the trajectory of biodiversity at the local scale3 and even more so on the biotic homogenization of biodiversity across space4,5. We compiled 2,133 publications covering 97,783 impacted and reference sites, creating an unparallelled dataset of 3,667 independent comparisons of biodiversity impacts across all main organismal groups, habitats and the five most predominant human pressures1,6. For all comparisons, we quantified three key measures of biodiversity to assess how these human pressures drive homogenization and shifts in composition of biological communities across space and changes in local diversity, respectively. We show that human pressures distinctly shift community composition and decrease local diversity across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Yet, contrary to long-standing expectations, there is no clear general homogenization of communities. Critically, the direction and magnitude of biodiversity changes vary across pressures, organisms and scales at which they are studied. Our exhaustive global analysis reveals the general impact and key mediating factors of human pressures on biodiversity and can benchmark conservation strategies.

Distribution, species richness, and relative importance of different plant life forms across drylands in China

Studies on plant diversity are usually based on the total number of species in a community. However, few studies have examined species richness (SR) of different plant life forms in a community along large-scale environmental gradients. Particularly, the relative importance (RIV) of different plant life forms in a community and how they vary with environmental variables are still unclear. To fill these gaps, we determined plant diversity of ephemeral plants, annual herbs, perennial herbs, and woody plants from 187 sites across drylands in China. The SR patterns of herbaceous plants, especially perennial herbs, and their RIV in plant communities increased with increasing precipitation and soil nutrient content; however, the RIV of annual herbs was not altered along these gradients. The SR and RIV of ephemeral plants were affected mainly by precipitation seasonality. The SR of woody plants had a unimodal relationship with air temperature and exhibited the highest RIV and SR percentage in plant communities under the harshest environments. An obvious shift emerged in plant community composition, SR and their critical impact factors at 238.5 mm of mean annual precipitation (MAP). In mesic regions (> 238.5 mm), herbs were the dominant species, and the SR displayed a relatively slow decreasing rate with increasing aridity, which was mediated mainly by MAP and soil nutrients. In arid regions (< 238.5 mm), woody plants were the dominant species, and the SR displayed a relatively fast decreasing rate with increasing aridity, which was mediated mainly by climate variables, especially precipitation. Our findings highlight the importance of comparative life form studies in community structure and biodiversity, as their responses to gradients differed substantially on a large scale.

Traits related to distributional range shifts of marine fishes

In the context of global change, reviewing the relationships between marine fish traits and their range shifts is required to (1) identify ecological generalizations regarding the influence of traits on range shifts at a global scale and (2) investigate the rationale behind trait inclusion in models describing those relationships. We systematically searched for studies on marine fish assemblages that identified distributional shifts and analyzed the relationship between fish traits and these shifts. We reviewed 29 papers and identified 11 shift type characterizations and 41 traits, noting significant variation in measurement methods and model types used to describe their relationships. We identified global trait redundancies in the relationship between fish traits and latitudinal range shifts. These trends are related to the fishes' latitudinal range, trophic level, water column habitat, body size, size-at-settlement, growth rate, and larval swimming ability. The first four traits, along with fish bottom habitat, biogeographic affinity, diet, and thermal affinity, also showed significant relationships across four ways to characterize horizontal range shifts of fish species. The significance of these traits suggests their relevance in range shifting, regardless of the analyses conducted, biogeographic realm, and range shift type. However, trait redundancies require further consideration, mainly because some traits show opposing relationships in different studies, and important biogeographic research gaps limit global generalizations about the trait-range shift relationship. Half of the studies analyzed provided a rationale for 23 out of 41 traits. We also provide guidelines for future work to better understand the influence of traits on fish range shifts.

The Anthropocene and the biodiversity crisis: an eco-evolutionary perspective

A major facet of the Anthropocene is global change, such as climate change, caused by human activities, which drastically affect biodiversity with all-scale declines and homogenization of biotas. This crisis does not only affect the ecological dynamics of biodiversity, but also its evolutionary dynamics, including genetic diversity, an aspect that is generally neglected. My tenet is therefore to consider biodiversity dynamics from an eco-evolutionary perspective, i.e. explicitly accounting for the possibility of rapid evolution and its feedback on ecological processes and the environment. I represent the impact of the various avatars of global change in a temporal perspective, from pre-industrial time to the near future, allowing to visualize their dynamics and to set desired values that should not be trespassed for a given time (e.g., +2 °C for 50 years from now). After presenting the impact of various stressors (e.g., climate change) on biodiversity, this representation is used to heuristically show the relevance of an eco-evolutionary perspective: (i) to analyze how biodiversity will respond to the stressors, for example by seeking out more suitable conditions or adapting to new conditions; (ii) to serve in predictive exercises to envision future dynamics (decades to centuries) under stressor impact; (iii) to propose nature-based solutions to the crisis. Significant obstacles stand in the way of the development of such an approach, in particular the general lack of interest in intraspecific diversity, and perhaps more generally a lack of understanding that, we, humans, are only a modest part of biodiversity.

Increased resilience and a regime shift reversal through repeat mass coral bleaching

Ecosystems are substantially changing in response to ongoing climate change. For example, coral reefs have declined in coral dominance, with some reefs undergoing regime shifts to non-coral states. However, reef responses may vary through multiple heat stress events, with the rarity of long-term ecological datasets rendering such understanding uncertain. Assessing coral reefs across the inner Seychelles islands using a 28-year dataset, we document faster coral recovery from the 2016 than the 1998 marine heatwave event. Further, compositions of benthic and fish communities were more resistant to change following the more recent heat stress, having stabilized in a persistent altered state, with greater herbivory, following the 1998 climate disturbance. Counter to predictions, a macroalgal-dominated reef that had regime-shifted following the 1998 disturbance is transitioning to a coral-dominated state following the 2016 heat stress. Collectively, these patterns indicate that reef systems may be more resilient to repeat heatwave events than anticipated.

What Determines the Probability of Discovering a Species? A Study of the Completeness of Bryophyte Inventories in Tianmushan National Nature Reserve (Zhejiang, China)

Knowing the total number of species in a region has been a question of great interest motivated by the need to provide a reference point for current and future losses of biodiversity. Unfortunately, obtaining an accurate number is constrained by the fact that most species remain to be discovered, due to the imperfect detection of species in the field collection or because of temporal turnover in species composition. Here, to understand the inventory completeness at the local scale, we studied the temporal dynamics in the species richness and composition of bryophytes in Tianmushan National Nature Reserve. We used β-diversity to measure the temporal variation and analyzed the species attributes of newly discovered species collected this time. Furthermore, we evaluated our sampling strategy to measure sampling effect and estimated the species that remain to be discovered. We found that total β-diversity was largely driven by turnover. The analysis of species attributes showed that epiphytic species dominate the newly recorded species in both the narrow and wide elevational range species. Further, if only one of the methods was adopted, 26%-29% of the newly discovered species would be missed, and we inferred that there are likely are 185 bryophytes yet to be discovered. Our results indicate that when the same effort was made, an appropriate sampling methodology is crucial to accelerate newly recorded species discovery. Further, the results of our study highlight that species temporal turnover should be considered when assessing the completeness of species inventories at the local scale.

Slower but deeper community change: Intrinsic dynamics regulate anthropogenic impacts on species temporal turnover

Understanding the mechanisms behind biodiversity dynamics is central to assessing and forecasting anthropogenic impacts on ecological communities. However, the manner in which external environmental drivers act in concert with intrinsic ecological processes to influence local temporal turnover is currently largely unexplored. Here, we determine how human impacts affect multiple metrics of bird community turnover to establish the ecological mechanisms behind compositional change. We used US Breeding Bird Survey data to calculate transect-level rates of three measures of temporal species turnover: (1) "short-term" (initial rate of decline of Sørensen similarity), (2) "long-term" (asymptotic Sørensen similarity), and (3) "throughput" (overall species accumulation rate from species-time relationship exponents) over 2692 transects across 27 regional habitat types. We then hierarchically fit linear models to estimate the effect of anthropogenic impact on these turnover metrics, using the Human Modification Index proxy, while accounting for observed species richness, the size of the species pool, and annual environmental variability. We found broadly consistent impacts of increased anthropogenic pressures across diverse habitat types. The Human Modification Index was associated with greater turnover at long timescales, but marginally slower short-term turnover. The species "throughput" (accumulation rate) was not notably influenced. Examining anthropogenic impacts on different aspects of species turnover in combination allows greater ecological insight. Observed human impacts on short-term turnover were the opposite of existing expectations and suggest humans are disrupting the background turnover of these systems, rather than simply driving rapid directed turnover. The increased long-term turnover without concurrent increases in species accumulation implies human impacts lead to shifts in species occurrence frequency rather than simply greater arrival of "new" species. These results highlight the role of intrinsic dynamics and caution against simple interpretations of increased species turnover as reflections of environmental change.

Local heterogenisation and regional homogenisation linked to habitat loss induced by dams in riparian forests of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Riparian forests are crucial for biodiversity, but dam construction for hydroelectric power disrupts these ecosystems, causing habitat loss and altering river dynamics. Our study investigates the impacts of dams on tree diversity in the southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We sampled trees along riverbanks and uplands across 15 dam-affected fragments, analysing the relationship between habitat loss (i.e. loss of riparian zones by permanent flooding due to dam filling), elevation difference, fragment size, and dam implementation time with alpha and beta diversity using mixed models and redundancy analyses. Habitat loss had a more significant impact on beta diversity, leading to shifts in species composition and reduced uniqueness of communities as the impact's intensity, spatial extent, and duration increased. Alpha diversity only increased in response to local elevation differences between plots located on uplands and riverbanks. Our sampling design can be applied to other inadequately monitored systems to provide insights into beta diversity, a component often neglected in dam licensing and mitigation processes. Our findings reveal a transient local heterogenisation, transitioning into regional homogenisation due to dam-induced habitat loss in riparian forests of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Multidecadal changes in coastal benthic species composition and ecosystem functioning occur independently of temperature-driven community shifts

Rising global temperatures are often identified as the key driver impacting ecosystems and the services they provide by affecting biodiversity structure and function. A disproportionate amount of our understanding of biodiversity and function is from short-term experimental studies and static values of biodiversity indices, lacking the ability to monitor long-term trends and capture community dynamics. Here, we analyse a biennial dataset spanning 32 years of macroinvertebrate benthic communities and their functional response to increasing temperatures. We monitored changes in species' thermal affinities to examine warming-related shifts by selecting their mid-point global temperature distribution range and linking them to species' traits. We employed a novel weighted metric using Biological Trait Analysis (BTA) to gain better insights into the ecological potential of each species by incorporating species abundance and body size and selecting a subset of traits that represent five ecosystem functions: bioturbation activity, sediment stability, nutrient recycling and higher and lower trophic production. Using biodiversity indices (richness, Simpson's diversity and vulnerability) and functional indices (richness, Rao's Q and redundancy), the community structure showed no significant change over time with a narrow range of variation. However, we show shifts in species composition with warming and increases in the abundance of individuals, which altered ecosystem functioning positively and/or non-linearly. Yet, when higher taxonomic groupings than species were excluded from the analysis, there was only a weak increase in the measured change in community-weighted average thermal affinities, suggesting changes in ecosystem functions over time occur independently of temperature increase-related shifts in community composition. Other environmental factors driving species composition and abundance may be more important in these subtidal macrobenthic communities. This challenges the prevailing emphasis on temperature as the primary driver of ecological response to climate change and emphasises the necessity for a comprehensive understanding of the temporal dynamics of complex systems.

Abundance-diversity relationship as a unique signature of temporal scaling in the fossil record

Species diversity increases with the temporal grain of samples according to the species-time relationship (STR), impacting palaeoecological analyses because the temporal grain (time averaging) of fossil assemblages varies by several orders of magnitude. We predict a positive relation between total abundance and sample size-independent diversity (ADR) in fossil assemblages because an increase in time averaging, determined by a decreasing sediment accumulation, should increase abundance and depress species dominance. We demonstrate that, in contrast to negative ADR of non-averaged living assemblages, the ADR of Holocene fossil assemblages is positive, unconditionally or when conditioned on the energy availability gradient. However, the positive fossil ADR disappears when conditioned on sediment accumulation, demonstrating that ADR is a signature of diversity scaling induced by variable time averaging. Conditioning ADR on sediment accumulation can identify and remove the scaling effect caused by time averaging, providing an avenue for unbiased biodiversity comparisons across space and time.

Towards a standardized framework for AI-assisted, image-based monitoring of nocturnal insects

Automated sensors have potential to standardize and expand the monitoring of insects across the globe. As one of the most scalable and fastest developing sensor technologies, we describe a framework for automated, image-based monitoring of nocturnal insects-from sensor development and field deployment to workflows for data processing and publishing. Sensors comprise a light to attract insects, a camera for collecting images and a computer for scheduling, data storage and processing. Metadata is important to describe sampling schedules that balance the capture of relevant ecological information against power and data storage limitations. Large data volumes of images from automated systems necessitate scalable and effective data processing. We describe computer vision approaches for the detection, tracking and classification of insects, including models built from existing aggregations of labelled insect images. Data from automated camera systems necessitate approaches that account for inherent biases. We advocate models that explicitly correct for bias in species occurrence or abundance estimates resulting from the imperfect detection of species or individuals present during sampling occasions. We propose ten priorities towards a step-change in automated monitoring of nocturnal insects, a vital task in the face of rapid biodiversity loss from global threats. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring'.

A concept for international societally relevant microbiology education and microbiology knowledge promulgation in society

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Microbes are all pervasive in their distribution and influence on the functioning and well-being of humans, life in general and the planet. Microbially-based technologies contribute hugely to the supply of important goods and services we depend upon, such as the provision of food, medicines and clean water. They also offer mechanisms and strategies to mitigate and solve a wide range of problems and crises facing humanity at all levels, including those encapsulated in the sustainable development goals (SDGs) formulated by the United Nations. For example, microbial technologies can contribute in multiple ways to decarbonisation and hence confronting global warming, provide sanitation and clean water to the billions of people lacking them, improve soil fertility and hence food production and develop vaccines and other medicines to reduce and in some cases eliminate deadly infections. They are the foundation of biotechnology, an increasingly important and growing business sector and source of employment, and the centre of the bioeconomy, Green Deal, etc. But, because microbes are largely invisible, they are not familiar to most people, so opportunities they offer to effectively prevent and solve problems are often missed by decision-makers, with the negative consequences this entrains. To correct this lack of vital knowledge, the International Microbiology Literacy Initiative-the IMiLI-is recruiting from the global microbiology community and making freely available, teaching resources for a curriculum in societally relevant microbiology that can be used at all levels of learning. Its goal is the development of a society that is literate in relevant microbiology and, as a consequence, able to take full advantage of the potential of microbes and minimise the consequences of their negative activities. In addition to teaching about microbes, almost every lesson discusses the influence they have on sustainability and the SDGs and their ability to solve pressing problems of societal inequalities. The curriculum thus teaches about sustainability, societal needs and global citizenship. The lessons also reveal the impacts microbes and their activities have on our daily lives at the personal, family, community, national and global levels and their relevance for decisions at all levels. And, because effective, evidence-based decisions require not only relevant information but also critical and systems thinking, the resources also teach about these key generic aspects of deliberation. The IMiLI teaching resources are learner-centric, not academic microbiology-centric and deal with the microbiology of everyday issues. These span topics as diverse as owning and caring for a companion animal, the vast range of everyday foods that are produced via microbial processes, impressive geological formations created by microbes, childhood illnesses and how they are managed and how to reduce waste and pollution. They also leverage the exceptional excitement of exploration and discovery that typifies much progress in microbiology to capture the interest, inspire and motivate educators and learners alike. The IMiLI is establishing Regional Centres to translate the teaching resources into regional languages and adapt them to regional cultures, and to promote their use and assist educators employing them. Two of these are now operational. The Regional Centres constitute the interface between resource creators and educators-learners. As such, they will collect and analyse feedback from the end-users and transmit this to the resource creators so that teaching materials can be improved and refined, and new resources added in response to demand: educators and learners will thereby be directly involved in evolution of the teaching resources. The interactions between educators-learners and resource creators mediated by the Regional Centres will establish dynamic and synergistic relationships-a global societally relevant microbiology education ecosystem-in which creators also become learners, teaching resources are optimised and all players/stakeholders are empowered and their motivation increased. The IMiLI concept thus embraces the principle of teaching societally relevant microbiology embedded in the wider context of societal, biosphere and planetary needs, inequalities, the range of crises that confront us and the need for improved decisioning, which should ultimately lead to better citizenship and a humanity that is more sustainable and resilient.

ABSTRACT

The biosphere of planet Earth is a microbial world: a vast reactor of countless microbially driven chemical transformations and energy transfers that push and pull many planetary geochemical processes, including the cycling of the elements of life, mitigate or amplify climate change (e.g., Nature Reviews Microbiology, 2019, 17, 569) and impact the well-being and activities of all organisms, including humans. Microbes are both our ancestors and creators of the planetary chemistry that allowed us to evolve (e.g., Life's engines: How microbes made earth habitable, 2023). To understand how the biosphere functions, how humans can influence its development and live more sustainably with the other organisms sharing it, we need to understand the microbes. In a recent editorial (Environmental Microbiology, 2019, 21, 1513), we advocated for improved microbiology literacy in society. Our concept of microbiology literacy is not based on knowledge of the academic subject of microbiology, with its multitude of component topics, plus the growing number of additional topics from other disciplines that become vitally important elements of current microbiology. Rather it is focused on microbial activities that impact us-individuals/communities/nations/the human world-and the biosphere and that are key to reaching informed decisions on a multitude of issues that regularly confront us, ranging from personal issues to crises of global importance. In other words, it is knowledge and understanding essential for adulthood and the transition to it, knowledge and understanding that must be acquired early in life in school. The 2019 Editorial marked the launch of the International Microbiology Literacy Initiative, the IMiLI. HERE, WE PRESENT: our concept of how microbiology literacy may be achieved and the rationale underpinning it; the type of teaching resources being created to realise the concept and the framing of microbial activities treated in these resources in the context of sustainability, societal needs and responsibilities and decision-making; and the key role of Regional Centres that will translate the teaching resources into local languages, adapt them according to local cultural needs, interface with regional educators and develop and serve as hubs of microbiology literacy education networks. The topics featuring in teaching resources are learner-centric and have been selected for their inherent relevance, interest and ability to excite and engage. Importantly, the resources coherently integrate and emphasise the overarching issues of sustainability, stewardship and critical thinking and the pervasive interdependencies of processes. More broadly, the concept emphasises how the multifarious applications of microbial activities can be leveraged to promote human/animal, plant, environmental and planetary health, improve social equity, alleviate humanitarian deficits and causes of conflicts among peoples and increase understanding between peoples (Microbial Biotechnology, 2023, 16(6), 1091-1111). Importantly, although the primary target of the freely available (CC BY-NC 4.0) IMiLI teaching resources is schoolchildren and their educators, they and the teaching philosophy are intended for all ages, abilities and cultural spectra of learners worldwide: in university education, lifelong learning, curiosity-driven, web-based knowledge acquisition and public outreach. The IMiLI teaching resources aim to promote development of a global microbiology education ecosystem that democratises microbiology knowledge.

A test of Conserving Nature's Stage: protecting a diversity of geophysical traits can also support a diversity of species at a landscape scale

Conserving Nature's Stage (CNS) is a concept from conservation planning that promotes the protection of areas encompassing a broad range of enduring geophysical traits to provide long-term habitat for diverse species. The efficacy of using enduring geophysical characteristics as surrogates for biodiversity, independent of non-geophysical features and when considering finer resolution area selections, has yet to be investigated. Here, we evaluated CNS using 33 fine-scale inventories of vascular plant, non-vascular plant, invertebrate or vertebrate species from 13 areas across three continents. For each inventory, we estimated a continuous multidimensional surrogate defined from topographic and soil estimates of the surveyed plots. We assessed surrogate effectiveness by comparing the species representation of surrogate selected plots to the representation from plots picked randomly and using species information. We then used correlation coefficients to assess the link between the performance and qualities of the inventories, surroundings and surrogates. The CNS surrogate showed positive performance for 24 of the 33 inventories, and among these tests, represented 28 more species than random and 83% of the total number of species on average. We also found a small number of weak correlations between performance and environmental variability, as well as qualities of the surrogate. Our study demonstrates that prioritizing areas for a variety of geophysical characteristics will, in most cases, promote the representation of species. Our findings also point to areas for future research that might enhance CNS surrogacy. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Geodiversity for science and society'.

Climate-driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas

Given the current environmental crisis, biodiversity protection is one of the most urgent socio-environmental priorities. However, the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), the primary strategy for safeguarding ecosystems, is challenged by global climate change (GCC), with evidence showing that species are shifting their distributions into new areas, causing novel species assemblages. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate PAs' present and future effectiveness for biodiversity under the GCC. Here, we analyzed changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of plants associated with the Neotropical seasonally dry forest (NSDF) under GCC scenarios. We modeled the climatic niche of over 1000 plant species in five representative families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) of the NSDF. We predicted their potential distributions in the present and future years (2040, 2060, and 2080) based on an intermediate scenario of shared socio-economic pathways (SSP 3.70), allowing species to disperse to new sites or constrained to the current distribution. Then, we tested if the current PAs network represents the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities. Our results suggest that GCC could promote novel species assemblages with local responses (communities' modifications) across the biome. In general, models predicted losses in the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities of all the five plant families analyzed across the distribution of the NSDF. However, in the northern floristic groups (i.e., Antilles and Mesoamerica) of the NSDF, taxonomic and PD will be stable in GCC projections. In contrast, across the NSDF in South America, some cores will lose diversity while others will gain diversity under GCC scenarios. PAs in some NSDF regions appeared insufficient to protect the NSDF diversity. Thus, there is an urgent need to assess how the PA system could be better reconfigured to warrant the protection of the NSDF.

Global monitoring for biodiversity: Uncertainty, risk, and power analyses to support trend change detection

Global targets aim to reverse biodiversity declines by 2050 but require knowledge of current trends and future projections under policy intervention. First, given uncertainty in measurement of current trends, we propose a risk framework, considering probability and magnitude of decline. While only 11 of 198 systems analyzed (taxonomic groups by country from the Living Planet Database) showed declining abundance with high certainty, 20% of systems had a 70% chance of strong declines. Society needs to decide acceptable risks of biodiversity loss. Second, we calculated statistical power to detect trend change using ~12,000 populations from 62 systems currently showing strong declines. Current trend uncertainty hinders our ability to assess improvements. Trend change is detectable with high certainty in only 14 systems, even if thousands of populations are sampled, and conservation action reduces net declines to zero immediately, on average. We provide potential solutions to improve monitoring of progress toward biodiversity targets.

Monitoring the fabric of nature: using allometric trophic network models and observations to assess policy effects on biodiversity

Species diversity underpins all ecosystem services that support life. Despite this recognition and the great advances in detecting biodiversity, exactly how many and which species co-occur and interact, directly or indirectly in any ecosystem is unknown. Biodiversity accounts are incomplete; taxonomically, size, habitat, mobility or rarity biased. In the ocean, the provisioning of fish, invertebrates and algae is a fundamental ecosystem service. This extracted biomass depends on a myriad of microscopic and macroscopic organisms that make up the fabric of nature and which are affected by management actions. Monitoring them all and attributing changes to management policies is daunting. Here we propose that dynamic quantitative models of species interactions can be used to link management policy and compliance with complex ecological networks. This allows managers to qualitatively identify 'interaction-indicator' species, which are highly impacted by management policies through propagation of complex ecological interactions. We ground the approach in intertidal kelp harvesting in Chile and fishers' compliance with policies. Results allow us to identify sets of species that respond to management policy and/or compliance, but which are often not included in standardized monitoring. The proposed approach aids in the design of biodiversity programmes that attempt to connect management with biodiversity change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Economic factors underlying biodiversity loss

Contemporary economic thinking does not acknowledge that the human economy is embedded in Nature; it instead treats humanity as a customer that draws on Nature. In this paper, we present a grammar for economic reasoning that is not built on that error. The grammar is based on a comparison between our demand for Nature's maintenance and regulating services and her ability to supply them on a sustainable basis. The comparison is then used to show that for measuring economic well-being, national statistical offices should estimate an inclusive measure of their economies' wealth and its distribution, not GDP and its distribution. The concept of 'inclusive wealth' is then used to identify policy instruments that ought to be used to manage such global public goods as the open seas and tropical rainforests. Trade liberalization without heed paid to the fate of local ecosystems from which primary products are drawn and exported by developing countries leads to a transfer of inclusive wealth from there to rich importing countries. Humanity's embeddedness in Nature has far-reaching implications for the way we should view human activities-in households, communities, nations and the world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions

This issue addresses the multifaceted problems of understanding biodiversity change to meet emerging international development and conservation goals, national economic accounting and diverse community needs. Recent international agreements highlight the need to establish monitoring and assessment programmes at national and regional levels. We identify an opportunity for the research community to develop the methods for robust detection and attribution of biodiversity change that will contribute to national assessments and guide conservation action. The 16 contributions of this issue address six major aspects of biodiversity assessment: connecting policy to science, establishing observation, improving statistical estimation, detecting change, attributing causes and projecting the future. These studies are led by experts in Indigenous studies, economics, ecology, conservation, statistics, and computer science, with representations from Asia, Africa, South America, North America and Europe. The results place biodiversity science in the context of policy needs and provide an updated roadmap for how to observe biodiversity change in a way that supports conservation action via robust detection and attribution science. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Detecting parallel polygenic adaptation to novel evolutionary pressure in wild populations: a case study in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

Populations can adapt to novel selection pressures through dramatic frequency changes in a few genes of large effect or subtle shifts in many genes of small effect. The latter (polygenic adaptation) is expected to be the primary mode of evolution for many life-history traits but tends to be more difficult to detect than changes in genes of large effect. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were subjected to intense fishing pressure over the twentieth century, leading to abundance crashes and a phenotypic shift toward earlier maturation across many populations. Here, we use spatially replicated temporal genomic data to test for a shared polygenic adaptive response to fishing using methods previously applied to evolve-and-resequence experiments. Cod populations on either side of the Atlantic show covariance in allele frequency change across the genome that are characteristic of recent polygenic adaptation. Using simulations, we demonstrate that the degree of covariance in allele frequency change observed in cod is unlikely to be explained by neutral processes or background selection. As human pressures on wild populations continue to increase, understanding and attributing modes of adaptation using methods similar to those demonstrated here will be important in identifying the capacity for adaptive responses and evolutionary rescue. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.