Carbohydrate-insulin model: does the conventional view of obesity reverse cause and effect?

Physiologic Adaptation to Macronutrient Change Distorts Findings from Short Dietary Trials: Reanalysis of a Metabolic Ward Study

An influential 2-wk cross-over feeding trial without a washout period purported to show advantages of a low-fat diet (LFD) compared with a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) for weight control. In contrast to several other macronutrient trials, the diet order effect was originally reported as not significant. In light of a new analysis by the original investigative group identifying an order effect, we aimed to examine, in a reanalysis of publicly available data (16 of 20 original participants; 7 female; mean BMI, 27.8 kg/m2), the validity of the original results and the claims that trial data oppose the carbohydrate-insulin model of obesity (CIM). We found that energy intake on the LCD was much lower when this diet was consumed first compared with second (a difference of -1164 kcal/d, P = 3.6 × 10-13); the opposite pattern was observed for the LFD (924 kcal/d, P = 2.0 × 10-16). This carry-over effect was significant (P interaction = 0.0004) whereas the net dietary effect was not (P = 0.4). Likewise, the between-arm difference (LCD - LFD) was -320 kcal/d in the first period and +1771 kcal/d in the second. Body fat decreased with consumption of the LCD first and increased with consumption of this diet second (-0.69 ± 0.33 compared with 0.57 ± 0.32 kg, P = 0.007). LCD-first participants had higher β-hydroxybutyrate levels while consuming the LCD and lower respiratory quotients while consuming LFD when compared with LFD-first participants on their respective diets. Change in insulin secretion as assessed by C-peptide in the first diet period predicted higher energy intake and less fat loss in the second period. These findings, which tend to support rather than oppose the CIM, suggest that differential (unequal) carry-over effects and short duration, with no washout period, preclude causal inferences regarding chronic macronutrient effects from this trial.

Breaking down silos: the multifaceted nature of obesity and the future of weight management

The continued global increase in the prevalence of obesity prompted a meeting at the Royal Society of London investigating causal mechanisms of the disease, 'Causes of obesity: theories, conjectures, and evidence' in October 2022. Evidence presented indicates areas of obesity science where there have been advancements, including an increased understanding of biological and physiological processes of weight gain and maintenance, yet it is clear there is still debate on the relative contribution of plausible causes of the modern obesity epidemic. Consensus was reached that obesity is not a reflection of diminished willpower, but rather the confluence of multiple, complex factors. As such, addressing obesity requires multifactorial prevention and treatment strategies. The accumulated evidence suggests that a continued focus primarily on individual-level contributors will be suboptimal in promoting weight management at the population level. Here, we consider individual biological and physiological processes within the broader context of sociodemographic and sociocultural exposures as well as environmental changes to optimize research priorities and public health efforts. This requires a consideration of a systems-level approach that efficiently addresses both systemic and group-specific environmental determinants, including psychosocial factors, that often serve as a barrier to otherwise efficacious prevention and treatment options. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Causes of obesity: theories, conjectures and evidence (Part I)'.