Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) 'On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies'

A More Flexible Reliability Model Based on the Gompertz Function and the Generalized Integro-Exponential Function

This work presents a new distribution that allows modeling data from a random variable with non-negative values. The new family is defined by a stochastic representation of a scaled mixture of a random variable with a Gompertz distribution (G) and a random variable with a uniform distribution on the interval (0,1). The result of this gives rise to a new random variable with a Slash Gompertz (SG) distribution that is more flexible than the Gompertz distribution, that is, it better models atypical data, presenting tails heavier than the Gompertz distribution. The density and some general properties of the resulting family are studied, including its moments and kurtosis coefficient. The inference of the parameters is carried out using the method of moments and maximum likelihood. Finally, illustrations of particular cases of this family are shown, adjusting in this case two sets of real data and estimating the parameters by maximum likelihood, where it is verified that this new family of distributions fits the reliability function better than the distributions of Gompertz (G), Slash Birnbaum Saunders (SBS), Slash Weibull (SW), and Gompertz-Verhults (GV).

Exactly solvable SIR models, their extensions and their application to sensitive pandemic forecasting

The classic SIR model of epidemic dynamics is solved completely by quadratures, including a time integral transform expanded in a series of incomplete gamma functions. The model is also generalized to arbitrary time-dependent infection rates and solved explicitly when the control parameter depends on the accumulated infections at time t. Numerical results are presented by way of comparison. Autonomous and non-autonomous generalizations of SIR for interacting regions are also considered, including non-separability for two or more interacting regions. A reduction of simple SIR models to one variable leads us to a generalized logistic model, Richards model, which we use to fit Mexico's COVID-19 data up to day number 134. Forecasting scenarios resulting from various fittings are discussed. A critique to the applicability of these models to current pandemic outbreaks in terms of robustness is provided. Finally, we obtain the bifurcation diagram for a discretized version of Richards model, displaying period doubling bifurcation to chaos.