The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa

Whole genome molecular analysis of respiratory syncytial virus pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Free State province, South Africa

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most predominant viral pathogen worldwide in children with lower respiratory tract infections. The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and resulting nonpharmaceutical interventions perturbed the transmission pattern of respiratory pathogens in South Africa. A seasonality shift and RSV resurgence was observed in 2020 and 2021, with several infected children observed. Conventional RSV-positive nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from various hospitals in the Free State province, Bloemfontein, South Africa, from children suffering from respiratory distress and severe acute respiratory infection between 2020 to 2021. Overlapping genome fragments were amplified and complete genomes were sequenced using the Illumina MiSeq platform. Maximum likelihood phylogenetic and evolutionary analysis were performed on both RSV-A/-B G-genes with published reference sequences from GISAID and GenBank. Our study strains belonged to the RSV-A GA2.3.2 and RSV-B GB5.0.5a clades. The upsurge of RSV was due to pre-existing strains that predominated in South Africa and circulating globally also driving these off-season RSV outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic. The variants responsible for the resurgence were phylogenetically related to pre-pandemic strains and could have contributed to the immune debt resulting from pandemic imposed restrictions. The deviation of the RSV season from the usual pattern affected by the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need for ongoing genomic surveillance and the identification of genetic variants to prevent unforeseen outbreaks in the future.

Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 Among Children and Adolescents Enrolled in Acute Respiratory Infection Sentinel Surveillance in South Africa, 2020-2022

BACKGROUND

Identifying children at risk for severe COVID-19 disease from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may guide future mitigation interventions. Using sentinel surveillance data, we aimed to identify risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalisation among patients aged ≤ 18 years with respiratory illness.

METHODS

From April 2020 to March 2022, patients meeting study case definitions were enrolled at four outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) and five inpatient severe respiratory infection (SRI) surveillance sites and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Each ILI clinic shared a catchment area with its corresponding SRI hospital. Potential risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalisation were analysed using multivariable logistic regression by comparing inpatient versus outpatient SARS-CoV-2 cases.

RESULTS

Of 4688 participants aged ≤ 18 years, 4556 (97%) with complete PCR and HIV data were included in the analysis. Among patients with ILI and SRI, 92/1145 (8%) and 154/3411 (5%) tested SARS-CoV-2 positive, respectively. Compared to outpatients, hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 cases were associated with age < 6 months ([adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 8.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.7-24.0] versus 1-4 years); underlying medical condition other than HIV [aOR 5.8, 95% CI 2.3-14.6]; laboratory-confirmed Omicron BA.1/BA.2 or Delta variant ([aOR 4.9, 95% CI 1.7-14.2] or [aOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.1-7.3] compared to ancestral SARS-CoV-2); and respiratory syncytial virus coinfection [aOR 6.2, 95% CI 1.0-38.5].

CONCLUSION

Aligning with previous research, we identified age < 6 months or having an underlying condition as risk factors for SARS-CoV-2-associated SRI hospitalisation and demonstrated the potential of sentinel surveillance to monitor COVID-19 in children.

Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa

Background

The South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates reduced circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 seasons. Here, we use a mechanistic transmission model to project the rebound of RSV in the two subsequent seasons.

Methods

We fit an age-structured epidemiological model to hospitalization data from national RSV surveillance in South Africa, allowing for time-varying reduction in RSV transmission during periods of COVID-19 circulation. We apply the model to project the rebound of RSV in the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Results

We projected an early and intense outbreak of RSV in April 2022, with an age shift to older infants (6-23 months old) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. In March 2022, government alerts were issued to prepare the hospital system for this potentially intense outbreak. We then assess the 2022 predictions and project the 2023 season. Model predictions for 2023 indicate that RSV activity has not fully returned to normal, with a projected early and moderately intense wave. We estimate that NPIs reduced RSV transmission between 15% and 50% during periods of COVID-19 circulation.

Conclusions

A wide range of NPIs impacted the dynamics of the RSV outbreaks throughout 2020-2023 in regard to timing, magnitude, and age structure, with important implications in a low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) setting where RSV interventions remain limited. More efforts should focus on adapting RSV models to LMIC data to project the impact of upcoming medical interventions for this disease.