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AbdusSalam SS, Agocs FJ, Allanach BC, Athron P, Balázs C, Bagnaschi E, Bechtle P, Buchmueller O, Beniwal A, Bhom J, Bloor S, Bringmann T, Buckley A, Butter A, Camargo-Molina JE, Chrzaszcz M, Conrad J, Cornell JM, Danninger M, de Blas J, De Roeck A, Desch K, Dolan M, Dreiner H, Eberhardt O, Ellis J, Farmer B, Fedele M, Flächer H, Fowlie A, Gonzalo TE, Grace P, Hamer M, Handley W, Harz J, Heinemeyer S, Hoof S, Hotinli S, Jackson P, Kahlhoefer F, Kowalska K, Krämer M, Kvellestad A, Martinez ML, Mahmoudi F, Santos DM, Martinez GD, Mishima S, Olive K, Paul A, Prim MT, Porod W, Raklev A, Renk JJ, Rogan C, Roszkowski L, Ruiz de Austri R, Sakurai K, Scaffidi A, Scott P, Sessolo EM, Stefaniak T, Stöcker P, Su W, Trojanowski S, Trotta R, Sming Tsai YL, Van den Abeele J, Valli M, Vincent AC, Weiglein G, White M, Wienemann P, Wu L, Zhang Y. Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories. REPORTS ON PROGRESS IN PHYSICS. PHYSICAL SOCIETY (GREAT BRITAIN) 2022; 85:052201. [PMID: 35522172 DOI: 10.1088/1361-6633/ac60ac] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2021] [Accepted: 03/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Fruzsina J Agocs
- Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 0HE, United Kingdom
- Kavli Institute for Cosmology, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0HA, United Kingdom
| | | | - Peter Athron
- Department of Physics and Institute of Theoretical Physics, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, People's Republic of China
- School of Physics and Astronomy, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia
| | - Csaba Balázs
- School of Physics and Astronomy, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia
| | | | - Philip Bechtle
- University of Bonn, Physikalisches Institut, Nussallee 12, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
| | - Oliver Buchmueller
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| | - Ankit Beniwal
- Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3), Université catholique de Louvain, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Jihyun Bhom
- Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow, Poland
| | - Sanjay Bloor
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Torsten Bringmann
- Department of Physics, University of Oslo, Box 1048, Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
| | - Andy Buckley
- School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Glasgow, University Place, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Anja Butter
- Institut für Theoretische Physik, Universität Heidelberg, Germany
| | | | - Marcin Chrzaszcz
- Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow, Poland
| | - Jan Conrad
- Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, AlbaNova University Centre, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jonathan M Cornell
- Department of Physics, Weber State University, 1415 Edvalson St., Dept. 2508, Ogden, UT 84408, United States of America
| | - Matthias Danninger
- Department of Physics, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby B.C., Canada
| | - Jorge de Blas
- Institute of Particle Physics Phenomenology, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom
| | - Albert De Roeck
- Experimental Physics Department, CERN, CH-1211 Geneva 23, Switzerland
| | - Klaus Desch
- University of Bonn, Physikalisches Institut, Nussallee 12, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
| | - Matthew Dolan
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Dark Matter Particle Physics, School of Physics, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | - Herbert Dreiner
- University of Bonn, Physikalisches Institut, Nussallee 12, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
| | - Otto Eberhardt
- Instituto de Física Corpuscular, IFIC-UV/CSIC, Apt. Correus 22085, E-46071, Valencia, Spain
| | - John Ellis
- Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King's College London, London WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom
| | - Ben Farmer
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
- Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia
| | - Marco Fedele
- Institut für Theoretische Teilchenphysik, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, D-76131 Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Henning Flächer
- HH Wills Physics Laboratory, University of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TL, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew Fowlie
- Department of Physics, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
- Department of Physics and Institute of Theoretical Physics, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, People's Republic of China
| | - Tomás E Gonzalo
- Department of Physics and Institute of Theoretical Physics, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, People's Republic of China
| | - Philip Grace
- ARC Centre for Dark Matter Particle Physics, Department of Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
| | - Matthias Hamer
- University of Bonn, Physikalisches Institut, Nussallee 12, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
| | - Will Handley
- Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 0HE, United Kingdom
- Kavli Institute for Cosmology, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0HA, United Kingdom
| | - Julia Harz
- Physik Department T70, James-Franck-Straße, Technische Universität München, D-85748 Garching, Germany
| | - Sven Heinemeyer
- Instituto de Física Teórica UAM-CSIC, Cantoblanco, 28049, Madrid, Spain
| | - Sebastian Hoof
- Institut für Astrophysik und Geophysik, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Friedrich-Hund-Platz 1, D-37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - Selim Hotinli
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| | - Paul Jackson
- ARC Centre for Dark Matter Particle Physics, Department of Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
| | - Felix Kahlhoefer
- Institute for Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology (TTK), RWTH Aachen University, Sommerfeldstraße 14, D-52056 Aachen, Germany
| | - Kamila Kowalska
- National Centre for Nuclear Research, ul. Pasteura 7, PL-02-093 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Michael Krämer
- Institute for Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology (TTK), RWTH Aachen University, Sommerfeldstraße 14, D-52056 Aachen, Germany
| | - Anders Kvellestad
- Department of Physics, University of Oslo, Box 1048, Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Farvah Mahmoudi
- Université de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS/IN2P3, Institut de Physique des 2 Infinis de Lyon, UMR 5822, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France
- Theoretical Physics Department, CERN, CH-1211 Geneva 23, Switzerland
| | - Diego Martinez Santos
- Instituto Galego de Física de Altas Enerxías, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Gregory D Martinez
- Physics and Astronomy Department, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States of America
| | | | - Keith Olive
- William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, United States of America
| | - Ayan Paul
- Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Notkestr. 85, 22607 Hamburg, Germany
- Institut für Physik, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, D-12489 Berlin, Germany
| | - Markus Tobias Prim
- University of Bonn, Physikalisches Institut, Nussallee 12, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
| | - Werner Porod
- University of Würzburg, Emil-Hilb-Weg 22, D-97074 Würzburg, Germany
| | - Are Raklev
- Department of Physics, University of Oslo, Box 1048, Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
| | - Janina J Renk
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
- Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, AlbaNova University Centre, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Christopher Rogan
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, United States of America
| | - Leszek Roszkowski
- National Centre for Nuclear Research, ul. Pasteura 7, PL-02-093 Warsaw, Poland
- Astrocent, Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center Polish Academy of Sciences, Bartycka 18, PL-00-716 Warsaw, Poland
| | | | - Kazuki Sakurai
- Institute of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, ul. Pasteura 5, PL-02-093 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Andre Scaffidi
- Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Torino, via P. Giuria 1, I-10125 Torino, Italy
| | - Pat Scott
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | | | - Tim Stefaniak
- Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Notkestr. 85, 22607 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Patrick Stöcker
- Institute for Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology (TTK), RWTH Aachen University, Sommerfeldstraße 14, D-52056 Aachen, Germany
| | - Wei Su
- ARC Centre for Dark Matter Particle Physics, Department of Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
- Korea Institute for Advanced Study, Seoul 02455, Republic of Korea
| | - Sebastian Trojanowski
- National Centre for Nuclear Research, ul. Pasteura 7, PL-02-093 Warsaw, Poland
- Astrocent, Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center Polish Academy of Sciences, Bartycka 18, PL-00-716 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Roberto Trotta
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
- SISSA International School for Advanced Studies, Via Bonomea 265, 34136, Trieste, Italy
| | - Yue-Lin Sming Tsai
- Key Laboratory of Dark Matter and Space Astronomy, Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210033, People's Republic of China
| | | | - Mauro Valli
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Irvine, California 92697, United States of America
| | - Aaron C Vincent
- Department of Physics, Engineering Physics and Astronomy, Queen's University, Kingston ON K7L 3N6, Canada
- Arthur B McDonald Canadian Astroparticle Physics Research Institute, Kingston ON K7L 3N6, Canada
- Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, Waterloo ON N2L 2Y5, Canada
| | - Georg Weiglein
- Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Notkestr. 85, 22607 Hamburg, Germany
- Institut fur Theoretische Physik, Universitat Hamburg, Luruper Chaussee 149, 22761 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Martin White
- ARC Centre for Dark Matter Particle Physics, Department of Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
| | - Peter Wienemann
- University of Bonn, Physikalisches Institut, Nussallee 12, D-53115 Bonn, Germany
| | - Lei Wu
- Department of Physics and Institute of Theoretical Physics, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, People's Republic of China
| | - Yang Zhang
- Department of Physics and Institute of Theoretical Physics, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, People's Republic of China
- School of Physics, Zhengzhou University, ZhengZhou 450001, People's Republic of China
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