Role of voting intention in public opinion polarization

An Agent-Based Statistical Physics Model for Political Polarization: A Monte Carlo Study

World-wide, political polarization continues unabated, undermining collective decision-making ability. In this issue, we have examined polarization dynamics using a (mean-field) model borrowed from statistical physics, assuming that each individual interacted with each of the others. We use the model to generate scenarios of polarization trends in time in the USA and explore ways to reduce it, as measured by a polarization index that we propose. Here, we extend our work using a more realistic assumption that individuals interact only with "neighbors" (short-range interactions). We use agent-based Monte Carlo simulations to generate polarization scenarios, considering again three USA political groups: Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. We find that mean-field and Monte Carlo simulation results are quite similar. The model can be applied to other political systems with similar polarization dynamics.

How the Brain Becomes the Mind: Can Thermodynamics Explain the Emergence and Nature of Emotions?

The neural systems' electric activities are fundamental for the phenomenology of consciousness. Sensory perception triggers an information/energy exchange with the environment, but the brain's recurrent activations maintain a resting state with constant parameters. Therefore, perception forms a closed thermodynamic cycle. In physics, the Carnot engine is an ideal thermodynamic cycle that converts heat from a hot reservoir into work, or inversely, requires work to transfer heat from a low- to a high-temperature reservoir (the reversed Carnot cycle). We analyze the high entropy brain by the endothermic reversed Carnot cycle. Its irreversible activations provide temporal directionality for future orientation. A flexible transfer between neural states inspires openness and creativity. In contrast, the low entropy resting state parallels reversible activations, which impose past focus via repetitive thinking, remorse, and regret. The exothermic Carnot cycle degrades mental energy. Therefore, the brain's energy/information balance formulates motivation, sensed as position or negative emotions. Our work provides an analytical perspective of positive and negative emotions and spontaneous behavior from the free energy principle. Furthermore, electrical activities, thoughts, and beliefs lend themselves to a temporal organization, an orthogonal condition to physical systems. Here, we suggest that an experimental validation of the thermodynamic origin of emotions might inspire better treatment options for mental diseases.

Statistical Mechanics of Political Polarization

Rapidly increasing political polarization threatens democracies around the world. Scholars from several disciplines are assessing and modeling polarization antecedents, processes, and consequences. Social systems are complex and networked. Their constant shifting hinders attempts to trace causes of observed trends, predict their consequences, or mitigate them. We propose an equivalent-neighbor model of polarization dynamics. Using statistical physics techniques, we generate anticipatory scenarios and examine whether leadership and/or external events alleviate or exacerbate polarization. We consider three highly polarized USA groups: Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. We assume that in each group, each individual has a political stance s ranging between left and right. We quantify the noise in this system as a "social temperature" T. Using energy E, we describe individuals' interactions in time within their own group and with individuals of the other groups. It depends on the stance s as well as on three intra-group and six inter-group coupling parameters. We compute the probability distributions of stances at any time using the Boltzmann probability weight exp(-E/T). We generate average group-stance scenarios in time and explore whether concerted interventions or unexpected shocks can alter them. The results inform on the perils of continuing the current polarization trends, as well as on possibilities of changing course.

Double transition in kinetic exchange opinion models with activation dynamics

In this work, we study a model of opinion dynamics considering activation/deactivation of agents. In other words, individuals are not static and can become inactive and drop out from the discussion. A probability [Formula: see text] governs the deactivation dynamics, whereas social interactions are ruled by kinetic exchanges, considering competitive positive/negative interactions. Inactive agents can become active due to interactions with active agents. Our analytical and numerical results show the existence of two distinct non-equilibrium phase transitions, with the occurrence of three phases, namely ordered (ferromagnetic-like), disordered (paramagnetic-like) and absorbing phases. The absorbing phase represents a collective state where all agents are inactive, i.e. they do not participate in the dynamics, inducing a frozen state. We determine the critical value [Formula: see text] above which the system is in the absorbing phase independently of the other parameters. We also verify a distinct critical behaviour for the transitions among different phases. This article is part of the theme issue 'Kinetic exchange models of societies and economies'.

Consensus, polarization, and coexistence in a continuous opinion dynamics model with quenched disorder

A model of opinion dynamics is introduced in which each individual's opinion is measured on a bounded continuous spectrum. Each opinion is influenced heterogeneously by every other opinion in the population. It is demonstrated that consensus, polarization and a spread of moderate opinions are all possible within this model. Using dynamic mean-field theory, we are able to identify the statistical features of the interactions between individuals that give rise to each of the aforementioned emergent phenomena. The nature of the transitions between each of the observed macroscopic states is also studied. It is demonstrated that heterogeneity of interactions between individuals can lead to polarization, that mostly antagonistic or contrarian interactions can promote consensus at a moderate opinion, and that mostly reinforcing interactions encourage the majority to take an extreme opinion.

A model for the competition between political mono-polarization and bi-polarization

We investigate the phenomena of political bi-polarization in a population of interacting agents by means of a generalized version of the model introduced by Vazquez et al. [Phys. Rev. E 101, 012101 (2020)] for the dynamics of voting intention. Each agent has a propensity p in [0,1] to vote for one of two political candidates. In an iteration step, two randomly chosen agents i and j with respective propensities p_i and p_j interact, and then p_i either increases by an amount h>0 with a probability that is a nonlinear function of p_i and p_j or decreases by h with the complementary probability. We assume that each agent can interact with any other agent (all-to-all interactions). We study the behavior of the system under variations of a parameter q≥0 that measures the nonlinearity of the propensity update rule. We focus on the stability properties of the two distinct stationary states: mono-polarization in which all agents share the same extreme propensity (0 or 1), and bi-polarization where the population is divided into two groups with opposite and extreme propensities. We find that the bi-polarized state is stable for q<q_c, while the mono-polarized state is stable for q>q_c, where q_c(h) is a transition value that decreases as h decreases. We develop a rate equation approach whose stability analysis reveals that q_c vanishes when h becomes infinitesimally small. This result is supported by the analysis of a transport equation derived in the continuum h→0 limit. We also show by Monte Carlo simulations that the mean time τ to reach mono-polarization in a system of size N scales as τ∼N^α at q_c , where α is a nonuniversal exponent that depends on h.