Quantifying uncertainty in a predictive model for popularity dynamics

Significant hot hand effect in the game of cricket

We investigate the predictability and persistence of individual and team performance (hot-hand effect) by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of predictability and hot-hands across the individual performance and the absence of the same in team performance and game outcome. Thus, Cricket is a game of skill for individuals and a game of chance for the teams. Our study contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of persistence in individual and collective productivity and success. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and design of algorithms for predicting success.

Universality, criticality and complexity of information propagation in social media

Statistical laws of information avalanches in social media appear, at least according to existing empirical studies, not robust across systems. As a consequence, radically different processes may represent plausible driving mechanisms for information propagation. Here, we analyze almost one billion time-stamped events collected from several online platforms – including Telegram, Twitter and Weibo – over observation windows longer than ten years, and show that the propagation of information in social media is a universal and critical process. Universality arises from the observation of identical macroscopic patterns across platforms, irrespective of the details of the specific system at hand. Critical behavior is deduced from the power-law distributions, and corresponding hyperscaling relations, characterizing size and duration of avalanches of information. Statistical testing on our data indicates that a mixture of simple and complex contagion characterizes the propagation of information in social media. Data suggest that the complexity of the process is correlated with the semantic content of the information that is propagated.

The authors identify characteristic patterns that describe the propagation of information in online social media platforms. They show that, depending on the topic, the information flows can spread as simple or complex contagion processes, operating at a critical regime.