Disease spreading with social distancing: A prevention strategy in disordered multiplex networks

Epidemic spreading on multi-layer networks with active nodes

Investigations on spreading dynamics based on complex networks have received widespread attention these years due to the COVID-19 epidemic, which are conducive to corresponding prevention policies. As for the COVID-19 epidemic itself, the latent time and mobile crowds are two important and inescapable factors that contribute to the significant prevalence. Focusing on these two factors, this paper systematically investigates the epidemic spreading in multiple spaces with mobile crowds. Specifically, we propose a SEIS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Susceptible) model that considers the latent time based on a multi-layer network with active nodes which indicate the mobile crowds. The steady-state equations and epidemic threshold of the SEIS model are deduced and discussed. And by comprehensively discussing the key model parameters, we find that (1) due to the latent time, there is a "cumulative effect" on the infected, leading to the "peaks" or "shoulders" of the curves of the infected individuals, and the system can switch among three states with the relative parameter combinations changing; (2) the minimal mobile crowds can also cause the significant prevalence of the epidemic at the steady state, which is suggested by the zero-point phase change in the proportional curves of infected individuals. These results can provide a theoretical basis for formulating epidemic prevention policies.

Q-neighbor Ising model on multiplex networks with partial overlap of nodes

The q-neighbor Ising model for the opinion formation on multiplex networks with two layers in the form of random graphs (duplex networks), the partial overlap of nodes, and LOCAL&AND spin update rule was investigated by means of the pair approximation and approximate master equations as well as Monte Carlo simulations. Both analytic and numerical results show that for different fixed sizes of the q-neighborhood and finite mean degrees of nodes within the layers the model exhibits qualitatively similar critical behavior as the analogous model on multiplex networks with layers in the form of complete graphs. However, as the mean degree of nodes is decreased the discontinuous ferromagnetic transition, the tricritical point separating it from the continuous transition, and the possible coexistence of the paramagnetic and ferromagnetic phases at zero temperature occur for smaller relative sizes of the overlap. Predictions of the simple homogeneous pair approximation concerning the critical behavior of the model under study show good qualitative agreement with numerical results; predictions based on the approximate master equations are usually quantitatively more accurate but yet not exact. Two versions of the heterogeneous pair approximation are also derived for the model under study, which, surprisingly, yield predictions only marginally different or even identical to those of the simple homogeneous pair approximation. In general, predictions of all approximations show better agreement with the results of Monte Carlo simulations in the case of continuous than discontinuous ferromagnetic transition.

Plant Virus Adaptation to New Hosts: A Multi-scale Approach

Viruses are studied at each level of biological complexity: from within-cells to ecosystems. The same basic evolutionary forces and principles operate at each level: mutation and recombination, selection, genetic drift, migration, and adaptive trade-offs. Great efforts have been put into understanding each level in great detail, hoping to predict the dynamics of viral population, prevent virus emergence, and manage their spread and virulence. Unfortunately, we are still far from this. To achieve these ambitious goals, we advocate for an integrative perspective of virus evolution. Focusing in plant viruses, we illustrate the pervasiveness of the above-mentioned principles. Beginning at the within-cell level, we describe replication modes, infection bottlenecks, and cellular contagion rates. Next, we move up to the colonization of distal tissues, discussing the fundamental role of random events. Then, we jump beyond the individual host and discuss the link between transmission mode and virulence. Finally, at the community level, we discuss properties of virus-plant infection networks. To close this review we propose the multilayer network theory, in which elements at different layers are connected and submit to their own dynamics that feed across layers, resulting in new emerging properties, as a way to integrate information from the different levels.

Uniformly accurate nonlinear transmission rate models arising from disease spread through pair contacts

We derive and asymptotically analyze mass-action models for disease spread that include transient pair formation and dissociation. Populations of unpaired susceptible individuals and infected individuals are distinguished from the population of three types of pairs of individuals: both susceptible, one susceptible and one infected, and both infected. Disease transmission can occur only within a pair consisting of one susceptible individual and one infected individual. We use perturbation expansion to formally derive uniformly valid approximations for the dynamics of the total infected and susceptible populations under different conditions including combinations of fast association, fast transmission, and fast dissociation limits. The effective equations are derived from the fundamental mass-action system without implicitly imposing transmission mechanisms, such as those used in frequency-dependent models. Our results represent submodels that show how effective nonlinear transmission can arise from pairing dynamics and are juxtaposed with density-based mass-action and frequency-based models.

Modeling partial lockdowns in multiplex networks using partition strategies

National stay-at-home orders, or lockdowns, were imposed in several countries to drastically reduce the social interactions mainly responsible for the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Despite being essential to slow down the COVID-19 pandemic, these containment measures are associated with an economic burden. In this work, we propose a network approach to model the implementation of a partial lockdown, breaking the society into disconnected components, or partitions. Our model is composed by two main ingredients: a multiplex network representing human contacts within different contexts, formed by a Household layer, a Work layer, and a Social layer including generic social interactions, and a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered process that mimics the epidemic spreading. We compare different partition strategies, with a twofold aim: reducing the epidemic outbreak and minimizing the economic cost associated to the partial lockdown. We also show that the inclusion of unconstrained social interactions dramatically increases the epidemic spreading, while different kinds of restrictions on social interactions help in keeping the benefices of the network partition.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41109-021-00366-7.