Generative models of simultaneously heavy-tailed distributions of interevent times on nodes and edges

Graph transformation and shortest paths algorithms for finite Markov chains

The graph transformation (GT) algorithm robustly computes the mean first-passage time to an absorbing state in a finite Markov chain. Here we present a concise overview of the iterative and block formulations of the GT procedure and generalize the GT formalism to the case of any path property that is a sum of contributions from individual transitions. In particular, we examine the path action, which directly relates to the path probability, and analyze the first-passage path ensemble for a model Markov chain that is metastable and therefore numerically challenging. We compare the mean first-passage path action, obtained using GT, with the full path action probability distribution simulated efficiently using kinetic path sampling, and with values for the highest-probability paths determined by the recursive enumeration algorithm (REA). In Markov chains representing realistic dynamical processes, the probability distributions of first-passage path properties are typically fat-tailed and therefore difficult to converge by sampling, which motivates the use of exact and numerically stable approaches to compute the expectation. We find that the kinetic relevance of the set of highest-probability paths depends strongly on the metastability of the Markov chain, and so the properties of the dominant first-passage paths may be unrepresentative of the global dynamics. Use of a global measure for edge costs in the REA, based on net productive fluxes, allows the total reactive flux to be decomposed into a finite set of contributions from simple flux paths. By considering transition flux paths, a detailed quantitative analysis of the relative importance of competing dynamical processes is possible even in the metastable regime.