Analytically solvable model of probabilistic network dynamics

Binary dynamics on star networks under external perturbations

We study a binary dynamical process that is a representation of the voter model with two candidates and opinion makers. The voters are represented by nodes of a network of social contacts with internal states labeled 0 or 1 and nodes that are connected can influence each other. The network is also perturbed by opinion makers, a set of external nodes whose states are frozen in 0 or 1 and that can influence all nodes of the network. The quantity of interest is the probability of finding m nodes in state 1 at time t. Here we study this process on star networks, which are simple representations of hubs found in complex systems, and compare the results with those obtained for networks that are fully connected. In both cases a transition from disordered to ordered equilibrium states is observed as the number of external nodes becomes small. For fully connected networks the probability distribution becomes uniform at the critical point. For star networks, on the other hand, we show that the equilibrium distribution splits in two peaks, reflecting the two possible states of the central node. We obtain approximate analytical solutions for the equilibrium distribution that clarify the role of the central node in the process. We show that the network topology also affects the time scale of oscillations in single realizations of the dynamics, which are much faster for the star network. Finally, extending the analysis to two stars we compare our results with simulations in simple scale-free networks.

Robustness against extinction by stochastic sex determination in small populations

Sexually reproducing populations with a small number of individuals may go extinct by stochastic fluctuations in sex determination, causing all their members to become male or female in a generation. In this work we calculate the time to extinction of isolated populations with fixed number N of individuals that are updated according to the Moran birth and death process. At each time step, one individual is randomly selected and replaced by its offspring resulting from mating with another individual of the opposite sex; the offspring can be male or female with equal probability. A set of N time steps is called a generation, the average time it takes for the entire population to be replaced. The number k of females fluctuates in time, similarly to a random walk, and extinction, which is the only asymptotic possibility, occurs when k=0 or k=N. We show that it takes only one generation for an arbitrary initial distribution of males and females to approach the binomial distribution. This distribution, however, is unstable and the population eventually goes extinct in 2(N)/N generations. We also discuss the robustness of these results against bias in the determination of the sex of the offspring, a characteristic promoted by infection by the bacteria Wolbachia in some arthropod species or by temperature in reptiles.

Moran model as a dynamical process on networks and its implications for neutral speciation

In population genetics, the Moran model describes the neutral evolution of a biallelic gene in a population of haploid individuals subjected to mutations. We show in this paper that this model can be mapped into an influence dynamical process on networks subjected to external influences. The panmictic case considered by Moran corresponds to fully connected networks and can be completely solved in terms of hypergeometric functions. Other types of networks correspond to structured populations, for which approximate solutions are also available. This approach to the classic Moran model leads to a relation between regular networks based on spatial grids and the mechanism of isolation by distance. We discuss the consequences of this connection for topopatric speciation and the theory of neutral speciation and biodiversity. We show that the effect of mutations in structured populations, where individuals can mate only with neighbors, is greatly enhanced with respect to the panmictic case. If mating is further constrained by genetic proximity between individuals, a balance of opposing tendencies takes place: increasing diversity promoted by enhanced effective mutations versus decreasing diversity promoted by similarity between mates. Resolution of large enough opposing tendencies occurs through speciation via pattern formation. We derive an explicit expression that indicates when speciation is possible involving the parameters characterizing the population. We also show that the time to speciation is greatly reduced in comparison with the panmictic case.

Unusual percolation in simple small-world networks

We present an exact solution of percolation in a generalized class of Watts-Strogatz graphs defined on a one-dimensional underlying lattice. We find a nonclassical critical point in the limit of the number of long-range bonds in the system going to zero, with a discontinuity in the percolation probability and a divergence in the mean finite-cluster size. We show that the critical behavior falls into one of three regimes depending on the proportion of occupied long-range to unoccupied nearest-neighbor bonds, with each regime being characterized by different critical exponents. The three regimes can be united by a single scaling function around the critical point. These results can be used to identify the number of long-range links necessary to secure connectivity in a communication or transportation chain. As an example, we can resolve the communication problem in a game of "telephone."