Near-mean-field behavior in the generalized Burridge-Knopoff earthquake model with variable-range stress transfer

Earthquake magnitude distribution and aftershocks: A statistical geometry explanation

The emergence of a power-law distribution for the energy released during an earthquake is investigated in several models. Generic features are identified which are based on the self-affine behavior of the stress field prior to an event. This field behaves at large scale as a random trajectory in one dimension of space and a random surface in two dimensions. Using concepts of statistical mechanics and results on the properties of these random objects, several predictions are obtained and verified, in particular the value of the power-law exponent of the earthquake energy distribution (the Gutenberg-Richter law) as well as a mechanism for the existence of aftershocks after a large earthquake (the Omori law).

Estimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean

The variance κ1 of the natural time analysis of earthquake catalogs was proposed in 2005 as an order parameter for seismicity, whose fluctuations proved, in 2011, to be minimized a few months before the strongest mainshock when studying the earthquakes in a given area. After the introduction of earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns, in 2012, the study of their higher order cores revealed, in 2019, the selection of appropriate areas in which the precursory minima βmin of the fluctuations β of the seismicity order parameter κ1 could be observed up to six months before all strong earthquakes above a certain threshold. The eastern Mediterranean region was studied in 2019, where all earthquakes of magnitude M≥7.1 were found to be preceded by βmin without any false alarm. Combining these results with the method of nowcasting earthquakes, introduced in 2016, for seismic risk estimation, here, we show that the epicenter of an impending strong earthquake can be estimated. This is achieved by employing—at the time of observing the βmin—nowcasting earthquakes in a square lattice grid in the study area and by averaging, self-consistently, the results obtained for the earthquake potential score. This is understood in the following context: The minimum βmin is ascertained to almost coincide with the onset of Seismic Electric Signals activity, which is accompanied by the development of long range correlations between earthquake magnitudes in the area that is a candidate for a mainshock.

Numerical evidences of almost convergence of wave speeds for the Burridge–Knopoff model

This paper deals with the numerical approximation of a stick–slip system, known in the literature as Burridge–Knopoff model, proposed as a simplified description of the mechanisms generating earthquakes. Modelling of friction is crucial and we consider here the so-called velocity-weakening form. The aim of the article is twofold. Firstly, we establish the effectiveness of the classical Predictor–Corrector strategy. To our knowledge, such approach has never been applied to the model under investigation. In the first part, we determine the reliability of the proposed strategy by comparing the results with a collection of significant computational tests, starting from the simplest configuration to the more complicated (and more realistic) ones, with the numerical outputs obtained by different algorithms. Particular emphasis is laid on the Gutenberg–Richter statistical law, a classical empirical benchmark for seismic events. The second part is inspired by the result by Muratov (Phys Rev 59:3847–3857, 1999) providing evidence for the existence of traveling solutions for a corresponding continuum version of the Burridge–Knopoff model. In this direction, we aim to find some appropriate estimate for the crucial object describing the wave, namely its propagation speed. To this aim, motivated by LeVeque and Yee (J Comput Phys 86:187–210, 1990) (a paper dealing with the different topic of conservation laws), we apply a space-averaged quantity (which depends on time) for determining asymptotically an explicit numerical estimate for the velocity, which we decide to name LeVeque–Yee formula after the authors’ name of the original paper. As expected, for the Burridge–Knopoff, due to its inherent discontinuity of the process, it is not possible to attach to a single seismic event any specific propagation speed. More regularity is expected by performing some temporal averaging in the spirit of the Cesàro mean. In this direction, we observe the numerical evidence of the almost convergence of the wave speeds for the Burridge–Knopoff model of earthquakes.

On the Statistical Significance of the Variability Minima of the Order Parameter of Seismicity by Means of Event Coincidence Analysis

Natural time analysis has led to the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity when considering earthquakes as critical phenomena. The study of the fluctuations of this order parameter has shown that its variability exhibits minima before strong earthquakes. In this paper, we evaluate the statistical significance of such minima by using the recent method of event coincidence analysis. Our study includes the variability minima identified before major earthquakes in Japan and Eastern Mediterranean as well as in global seismicity.

Foreshock and aftershocks in simple earthquake models

Many models of earthquake faults have been introduced that connect Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling to triggering processes. However, natural earthquake fault systems are composed of a variety of different geometries and materials and the associated heterogeneity in physical properties can cause a variety of spatial and temporal behaviors. This raises the question of how the triggering process and the structure interact to produce the observed phenomena. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen and Rundle-Jackson-Brown cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or asperity cells, into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the model that mimics that seen in natural fault systems along with GR scaling. In addition, we observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a main shock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism.

Natural time analysis of the Centennial Earthquake Catalog

By using the most recent version (1900-2007) of the Centennial Earthquake Catalog, we examine the properties of the global seismicity. Natural time analysis reveals that the fluctuations of the order parameter κ(1) of seismicity exhibit for at least three orders of magnitude a characteristic feature similar to that of the order parameter for other equilibrium or non-equilibrium critical systems-including self-organized critical systems. Moreover, we find non-trivial magnitude correlations for earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7.

Simulation study of earthquakes based on the two-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff model with long-range interactions

Spatiotemporal correlations of the two-dimensional (2D) spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) models of earthquakes with the long-range interblock interactions are extensively studied by means of numerical computer simulations. The long-range interaction derived from an elastic theory, which takes account of the effect of the elastic body adjacent to the fault plane, falls off with distance r as 1r;{3} . Comparison is made with the properties of the corresponding short-range models studied earlier. Seismic spatiotemporal correlations of the long-range models generally tend to be weaker than those of the short-range models. The magnitude distribution exhibits a "near-critical" behavior, i.e., a power-law-like behavior close to the Gutenberg-Richter law, for a wide parameter range with its B -value, B approximately 0.55 , insensitive to the model parameters, in sharp contrast to that of the 2D short-range model and those of the 1D short-range and long-range models where such a near-critical behavior is realized only by fine tuning the model parameters. In contrast to the short-range case, the mean stress drop at a seismic event of the long-range model is nearly independent of its magnitude, consistent with the observation. Large events often accompany foreshocks together with a doughnutlike quiescence as their precursors, while they hardly accompany aftershocks with almost negligible seismic correlations observed after the main shock.