Cascades on correlated and modular random networks

Control of cascading failures using protective measures

Cascading failures, triggered by a local perturbation, can be catastrophic and cause irreparable damages in a wide area. Hence, blocking the devastating cascades is an important issue in real world networks. One of the ways to control the cascade is to use protective me‌asures, so that the agents decide to be protected against failure. Here, we consider a coevolution of the linear threshold mo‌del for the spread of cascading failures and a decision-making game based on the perceived risk of failure. Protected agents are less vulnerable to failure and in return the size of the cascade affects the agent's decision to get insured. We find at what range of protection efficiency and cost of failure, the global cascades stop. Also we observe that in some range of protection efficiency, a bistable region emerges for the size of cascade and the prevalence of protected agents. Moreover, we show how savings or the ability of agents to repair can prevent cascades from occurring.

Stochastic modeling of cascade dynamics: A unified approach for simple and complex contagions across homogeneous and heterogeneous threshold distributions on networks

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of understanding, forecasting, and avoiding infectious processes, as well as the necessity for understanding the diffusion and acceptance of preventative measures. Simple contagions, like virus transmission, can spread with a single encounter, while complex contagions, such as preventive social measures (e.g., wearing masks, social distancing), may require multiple interactions to propagate. This disparity in transmission mechanisms results in differing contagion rates and contagion patterns between viruses and preventive measures. Furthermore, the dynamics of complex contagions are significantly less understood than those of simple contagions. Stochastic models, integrating inherent variability and randomness, offer a way to elucidate complex contagion dynamics. This paper introduces a stochastic model for both simple and complex contagions and assesses its efficacy against ensemble simulations for homogeneous and heterogeneous threshold configurations. The model provides a unified framework for analyzing both types of contagions, demonstrating promising outcomes across various threshold setups on Erds-Rényi graphs.

Temporal clustering of social interactions trades-off disease spreading and knowledge diffusion

Non-pharmaceutical measures such as preventive quarantines, remote working, school and workplace closures, lockdowns, etc. have shown effectiveness from an epidemic control perspective; however, they have also significant negative consequences on social life and relationships, work routines and community engagement. In particular, complex ideas, work and school collaborations, innovative discoveries and resilient norms formation and maintenance, which often require face-to-face interactions of two or more parties to be developed and synergically coordinated, are particularly affected. In this study, we propose an alternative hybrid solution that balances the slowdown of epidemic diffusion with the preservation of face-to-face interactions, that we test simulating a disease and a knowledge spreading simultaneously on a network of contacts. Our approach involves a two-step partitioning of the population. First, we tune the level of node clustering, creating 'social bubbles' with increased contacts within each bubble and fewer outside, while maintaining the average number of contacts in each network. Second, we tune the level of temporal clustering by pairing, for a certain time interval, nodes from specific social bubbles. Our results demonstrate that a hybrid approach can achieve better trade-offs between epidemic control and complex knowledge diffusion. The versatility of our model enables tuning and refining clustering levels to optimally achieve the desired trade-off, based on the potentially changing characteristics of a disease or knowledge diffusion process.

Social network structure and the spread of complex contagions from a population genetics perspective

Ideas, behaviors, and opinions spread through social networks. If the probability of spreading to a new individual is a nonlinear function of the fraction of the individuals' affected neighbors, such a spreading process becomes a "complex contagion." This nonlinearity does not typically appear with physically spreading infections, but instead can emerge when the concept that is spreading is subject to game theoretical considerations (e.g., for choices of strategy or behavior) or psychological effects such as social reinforcement and other forms of peer influence (e.g., for ideas, preferences, or opinions). Here we study how the stochastic dynamics of such complex contagions are affected by the underlying network structure. Motivated by simulations of complex contagions on real social networks, we present a framework for analyzing the statistics of contagions with arbitrary nonlinear adoption probabilities based on the mathematical tools of population genetics. The central idea is to use an effective lower-dimensional diffusion process to approximate the statistics of the contagion. This leads to a tradeoff between the effects of "selection" (microscopic tendencies for an idea to spread or die out), random drift, and network structure. Our framework illustrates intuitively several key properties of complex contagions: stronger community structure and network sparsity can significantly enhance the spread, while broad degree distributions dampen the effect of selection compared to random drift. Finally, we show that some structural features can exhibit critical values that demarcate regimes where global contagions become possible for networks of arbitrary size. Our results draw parallels between the competition of genes in a population and memes in a world of minds and ideas. Our tools provide insight into the spread of information, behaviors, and ideas via social influence, and highlight the role of macroscopic network structure in determining their fate.

Role of masks in mitigating viral spread on networks

Masks have remained an important mitigation strategy in the fight against COVID-19 due to their ability to prevent the transmission of respiratory droplets between individuals. In this work, we provide a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the impact of mask-wearing. To this end, we propose a novel agent-based model of viral spread on networks where agents may either wear no mask or wear one of several types of masks with different properties (e.g., cloth or surgical). We derive analytical expressions for three key epidemiological quantities: The probability of emergence, the epidemic threshold, and the expected epidemic size. In particular, we show how the aforementioned quantities depend on the structure of the contact network, viral transmission dynamics, and the distribution of the different types of masks within the population. Through extensive simulations, we then investigate the impact of different allocations of masks within the population and tradeoffs between the outward efficiency and inward efficiency of the masks. Interestingly, we find that masks with high outward efficiency and low inward efficiency are most useful for controlling the spread in the early stages of an epidemic, while masks with high inward efficiency but low outward efficiency are most useful in reducing the size of an already large spread. Last, we study whether degree-based mask allocation is more effective in reducing the probability of epidemic as well as epidemic size compared to random allocation. The result echoes the previous findings that mitigation strategies should differ based on the stage of the spreading process, focusing on source control before the epidemic emerges and on self-protection after the emergence.

Aging in binary-state models: The Threshold model for complex contagion

We study the non-Markovian effects associated with aging for binary-state dynamics in complex networks. Aging is considered as the property of the agents to be less prone to change their state the longer they have been in the current state, which gives rise to heterogeneous activity patterns. In particular, we analyze aging in the Threshold model, which has been proposed to explain the process of adoption of new technologies. Our analytical approximations give a good description of extensive Monte Carlo simulations in Erdős-Rényi, random-regular and Barabási-Albert networks. While aging does not modify the cascade condition, it slows down the cascade dynamics towards the full-adoption state: the exponential increase of adopters in time from the original model is replaced by a stretched exponential or power law, depending on the aging mechanism. Under several approximations, we give analytical expressions for the cascade condition and for the exponents of the adopters' density growth laws. Beyond random networks, we also describe by Monte Carlo simulations the effects of aging for the Threshold model in a two-dimensional lattice.

Topological data analysis of truncated contagion maps

The investigation of dynamical processes on networks has been one focus for the study of contagion processes. It has been demonstrated that contagions can be used to obtain information about the embedding of nodes in a Euclidean space. Specifically, one can use the activation times of threshold contagions to construct contagion maps as a manifold-learning approach. One drawback of contagion maps is their high computational cost. Here, we demonstrate that a truncation of the threshold contagions may considerably speed up the construction of contagion maps. Finally, we show that contagion maps may be used to find an insightful low-dimensional embedding for single-cell RNA-sequencing data in the form of cell-similarity networks and so reveal biological manifolds. Overall, our work makes the use of contagion maps as manifold-learning approaches on empirical network data more viable.

Echo chambers and information transmission biases in homophilic and heterophilic networks

We study how information transmission biases arise by the interplay between the structural properties of the network and the dynamics of the information in synthetic scale-free homophilic/heterophilic networks. We provide simple mathematical tools to quantify these biases. Both Simple and Complex Contagion models are insufficient to predict significant biases. In contrast, a Hybrid Contagion model-in which both Simple and Complex Contagion occur-gives rise to three different homophily-dependent biases: emissivity and receptivity biases, and echo chambers. Simulations in an empirical network with high homophily confirm our findings. Our results shed light on the mechanisms that cause inequalities in the visibility of information sources, reduced access to information, and lack of communication among distinct groups.

Motif-based mean-field approximation of interacting particles on clustered networks

Interacting particles on graphs are routinely used to study magnetic behavior in physics, disease spread in epidemiology, and opinion dynamics in social sciences. The literature on mean-field approximations of such systems for large graphs typically remains limited to specific dynamics, or assumes cluster-free graphs for which standard approximations based on degrees and pairs are often reasonably accurate. Here, we propose a motif-based mean-field approximation that considers higher-order subgraph structures in large clustered graphs. Numerically, our equations agree with stochastic simulations where existing methods fail.

Epidemic spreading and digital contact tracing: Effects of heterogeneous mixing and quarantine failures

Contact tracing via digital tracking applications installed on mobile phones is an important tool for controlling epidemic spreading. Its effectivity can be quantified by modifying the standard methodology for analyzing percolation and connectivity of contact networks. We apply this framework to networks with varying degree distributions, numbers of application users, and probabilities of quarantine failures. Further, we study structured populations with homophily and heterophily and the possibility of degree-targeted application distribution. Our results are based on a combination of explicit simulations and mean-field analysis. They indicate that there can be major differences in the epidemic size and epidemic probabilities which are equivalent in the normal susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) processes. Further, degree heterogeneity is seen to be especially important for the epidemic threshold but not as much for the epidemic size. The probability that tracing leads to quarantines is not as important as the application adoption rate. Finally, both strong homophily and especially heterophily with regard to application adoption can be detrimental. Overall, epidemic dynamics are very sensitive to all of the parameter values we tested out, which makes the problem of estimating the effect of digital contact tracing an inherently multidimensional problem.

Epidemic models characterize seizure propagation and the effects of epilepsy surgery in individualized brain networks based on MEG and invasive EEG recordings

Epilepsy surgery is the treatment of choice for drug-resistant epilepsy patients. However, seizure-freedom is currently achieved in only 2/3 of the patients after surgery. In this study we have developed an individualized computational model based on MEG brain networks to explore seizure propagation and the efficacy of different virtual resections. Eventually, the goal is to obtain individualized models to optimize resection strategy and outcome. We have modelled seizure propagation as an epidemic process using the susceptible-infected (SI) model on individual brain networks derived from presurgical MEG. We included 10 patients who had received epilepsy surgery and for whom the surgery outcome at least one year after surgery was known. The model parameters were tuned in in order to reproduce the patient-specific seizure propagation patterns as recorded with invasive EEG. We defined a personalized search algorithm that combined structural and dynamical information to find resections that maximally decreased seizure propagation for a given resection size. The optimal resection for each patient was defined as the smallest resection leading to at least a 90% reduction in seizure propagation. The individualized model reproduced the basic aspects of seizure propagation for 9 out of 10 patients when using the resection area as the origin of epidemic spreading, and for 10 out of 10 patients with an alternative definition of the seed region. We found that, for 7 patients, the optimal resection was smaller than the resection area, and for 4 patients we also found that a resection smaller than the resection area could lead to a 100% decrease in propagation. Moreover, for two cases these alternative resections included nodes outside the resection area. Epidemic spreading models fitted with patient specific data can capture the fundamental aspects of clinically observed seizure propagation, and can be used to test virtual resections in silico. Combined with optimization algorithms, smaller or alternative resection strategies, that are individually targeted for each patient, can be determined with the ultimate goal to improve surgery outcome. MEG-based networks can provide a good approximation of structural connectivity for computational models of seizure propagation, and facilitate their clinical use.

The Downside of Heterogeneity: How Established Relations Counteract Systemic Adaptivity in Tasks Assignments

We study the lock-in effect in a network of task assignments. Agents have a heterogeneous fitness for solving tasks and can redistribute unfinished tasks to other agents. They learn over time to whom to reassign tasks and preferably choose agents with higher fitness. A lock-in occurs if reassignments can no longer adapt. Agents overwhelmed with tasks then fail, leading to failure cascades. We find that the probability for lock-ins and systemic failures increase with the heterogeneity in fitness values. To study this dependence, we use the Shannon entropy of the network of task assignments. A detailed discussion links our findings to the problem of resilience and observations in social systems.

Link cascades in complex networks: A mean-field approach

Cascade models on networks have been used extensively to study cascade failure in complex systems. However, most current models consider failure caused by node damage and neglect the possibility of link damage, which is relevant to transportation, social dynamics, biology, and medicine. In an attempt to generalize conventional cascade models to link damage, we propose a link cascade model based on the standard independent cascade model, which is then solved via both numerical simulation and analytic approximation. We find that the probability that a node loses all its links due to link damage exhibits a minimum as a function of node degree, indicating that there exists an optimal degree for a node to be most resistant to link damage. We apply our model to investigate the sign distribution in a real-world signed social network and find that such an optimal degree does exist in a real-world dataset.

Dynamics of cascades on burstiness-controlled temporal networks

Burstiness, the tendency of interaction events to be heterogeneously distributed in time, is critical to information diffusion in physical and social systems. However, an analytical framework capturing the effect of burstiness on generic dynamics is lacking. Here we develop a master equation formalism to study cascades on temporal networks with burstiness modelled by renewal processes. Supported by numerical and data-driven simulations, we describe the interplay between heterogeneous temporal interactions and models of threshold-driven and epidemic spreading. We find that increasing interevent time variance can both accelerate and decelerate spreading for threshold models, but can only decelerate epidemic spreading. When accounting for the skewness of different interevent time distributions, spreading times collapse onto a universal curve. Our framework uncovers a deep yet subtle connection between generic diffusion mechanisms and underlying temporal network structures that impacts a broad class of networked phenomena, from spin interactions to epidemic contagion and language dynamics.

Network modularity controls the speed of information diffusion

The rapid diffusion of information and the adoption of social behaviors are of critical importance in situations as diverse as collective actions, pandemic prevention, or advertising and marketing. Although the dynamics of large cascades have been extensively studied in various contexts, few have systematically examined the impact of network topology on the efficiency of information diffusion. Here, by employing the linear threshold model on networks with communities, we demonstrate that a prominent network feature-the modular structure-strongly affects the speed of information diffusion in complex contagion. Our simulations show that there always exists an optimal network modularity for the most efficient spreading process. Beyond this critical value, either a stronger or a weaker modular structure actually hinders the diffusion speed. These results are confirmed by an analytical approximation. We further demonstrate that the optimal modularity varies with both the seed size and the target cascade size and is ultimately dependent on the network under investigation. We underscore the importance of our findings in applications from marketing to epidemiology, from neuroscience to engineering, where the understanding of the structural design of complex systems focuses on the efficiency of information propagation.

Non-Markovian recovery makes complex networks more resilient against large-scale failures

Non-Markovian spontaneous recovery processes with a time delay (memory) are ubiquitous in the real world. How does the non-Markovian characteristic affect failure propagation in complex networks? We consider failures due to internal causes at the nodal level and external failures due to an adverse environment, and develop a pair approximation analysis taking into account the two-node correlation. In general, a high failure stationary state can arise, corresponding to large-scale failures that can significantly compromise the functioning of the network. We uncover a striking phenomenon: memory associated with nodal recovery can counter-intuitively make the network more resilient against large-scale failures. In natural systems, the intrinsic non-Markovian characteristic of nodal recovery may thus be one reason for their resilience. In engineering design, incorporating certain non-Markovian features into the network may be beneficial to equipping it with a strong resilient capability to resist catastrophic failures.

Reversible bootstrap percolation: Fake news and fact checking

Bootstrap percolation has been used to describe opinion formation in society and other social and natural phenomena. The formal equation of the bootstrap percolation may have more than one solution, corresponding to several stable fixed points of the corresponding iteration process. We construct a reversible bootstrap percolation process, which converges to these extra solutions displaying a hysteresis typical of discontinuous phase transitions. This process provides a reasonable model for fake news spreading and the effectiveness of fact checking. We show that sometimes it is not sufficient to discard all the sources of fake news in order to reverse the belief of a population that formed under the influence of these sources.

The effects of evolutionary adaptations on spreading processes in complex networks

A common theme among previously proposed models for network epidemics is the assumption that the propagating object (e.g., a pathogen [in the context of infectious disease propagation] or a piece of information [in the context of information propagation]) is transferred across network nodes without going through any modification or evolutionary adaptations. However, in real-life spreading processes, pathogens often evolve in response to changing environments and medical interventions, and information is often modified by individuals before being forwarded. In this article, we investigate the effects of evolutionary adaptations on spreading processes in complex networks with the aim of 1) revealing the role of evolutionary adaptations on the threshold, probability, and final size of epidemics and 2) exploring the interplay between the structural properties of the network and the evolutionary adaptations of the spreading process.

Coevolution spreading in complex networks

The propagations of diseases, behaviors and information in real systems are rarely independent of each other, but they are coevolving with strong interactions. To uncover the dynamical mechanisms, the evolving spatiotemporal patterns and critical phenomena of networked coevolution spreading are extremely important, which provide theoretical foundations for us to control epidemic spreading, predict collective behaviors in social systems, and so on. The coevolution spreading dynamics in complex networks has thus attracted much attention in many disciplines. In this review, we introduce recent progress in the study of coevolution spreading dynamics, emphasizing the contributions from the perspectives of statistical mechanics and network science. The theoretical methods, critical phenomena, phase transitions, interacting mechanisms, and effects of network topology for four representative types of coevolution spreading mechanisms, including the coevolution of biological contagions, social contagions, epidemic-awareness, and epidemic-resources, are presented in detail, and the challenges in this field as well as open issues for future studies are also discussed.

Influence Maximization for Fixed Heterogeneous Thresholds

Influence Maximization is a NP-hard problem of selecting the optimal set of influencers in a network. Here, we propose two new approaches to influence maximization based on two very different metrics. The first metric, termed Balanced Index (BI), is fast to compute and assigns top values to two kinds of nodes: those with high resistance to adoption, and those with large out-degree. This is done by linearly combining three properties of a node: its degree, susceptibility to new opinions, and the impact its activation will have on its neighborhood. Controlling the weights between those three terms has a huge impact on performance. The second metric, termed Group Performance Index (GPI), measures performance of each node as an initiator when it is a part of randomly selected initiator set. In each such selection, the score assigned to each teammate is inversely proportional to the number of initiators causing the desired spread. These two metrics are applicable to various cascade models; here we test them on the Linear Threshold Model with fixed and known thresholds. Furthermore, we study the impact of network degree assortativity and threshold distribution on the cascade size for metrics including ours. The results demonstrate our two metrics deliver strong performance for influence maximization.

Hipsters on networks: How a minority group of individuals can lead to an antiestablishment majority

The spread of opinions, memes, diseases, and “alternative facts” in a population depends both on the details of the spreading process and on the structure of the social and communication networks on which they spread. One feature that can change spreading dynamics substantially is heterogeneous behavior among different types of individuals in a social network. In this paper, we explore how antiestablishment nodes (e.g., hipsters) influence the spreading dynamics of two competing products. We consider a model in which spreading follows a deterministic rule for updating node states (which indicate which product has been adopted) in which an adjustable probability pHip of the nodes in a network are hipsters, who choose to adopt the product that they believe is the less popular of the two. The remaining nodes are conformists, who choose which product to adopt by considering which products their immediate neighbors have adopted. We simulate our model on both synthetic and real networks, and we show that the hipsters have a major effect on the final fraction of people who adopt each product: even when only one of the two products exists at the beginning of the simulations, a small fraction of hipsters in a network can still cause the other product to eventually become the more popular one. To account for this behavior, we construct an approximation for the steady-state adoption fractions of the products on k-regular trees in the limit of few hipsters. Additionally, our simulations demonstrate that a time delay τ in the knowledge of the product distribution in a population, as compared to immediate knowledge of product adoption among nearest neighbors, can have a large effect on the final distribution of product adoptions. Using a local-tree approximation, we derive an analytical estimate of the spreading of products and obtain good agreement if a sufficiently small fraction of the population consists of hipsters. In all networks, we find that either of the two products can become the more popular one at steady state, depending on the fraction of hipsters in the network and on the amount of delay in the knowledge of the product distribution. Our simple model and analysis may help shed light on the road to success for antiestablishment choices in elections, as such success—and qualitative differences in final outcomes between competing products, political candidates, and so on—can arise rather generically in our model from a small number of antiestablishment individuals and ordinary processes of social influence on normal individuals.

Bond percolation in coloured and multiplex networks

Percolation in complex networks is a process that mimics network degradation and a tool that reveals peculiarities of the network structure. During the course of percolation, the emergent properties of networks undergo non-trivial transformations, which include a phase transition in the connectivity, and in some special cases, multiple phase transitions. Such global transformations are caused by only subtle changes in the degree distribution, which locally describe the network. Here we establish a generic analytic theory that describes how structure and sizes of all connected components in the network are affected by simple and colour-dependent bond percolations. This theory predicts locations of the phase transitions, existence of wide critical regimes that do not vanish in the thermodynamic limit, and a phenomenon of colour switching in small components. These results may be used to design percolation-like processes, optimise network response to percolation, and detect subtle signals preceding network collapse.

Percolation is a tool used to investigate a network’s response as random links are removed. Here the author presents a generic analytic theory to describe how percolation properties are affected in coloured networks, where the colour can represent a network feature such as multiplexity or the belonging to a community.

Competition and dual users in complex contagion processes

We study the competition of two spreading entities, for example innovations, in complex contagion processes in complex networks. We develop an analytical framework and examine the role of dual users, i.e. agents using both technologies. Searching for the spreading transition of the new innovation and the extinction transition of a preexisting one, we identify different phases depending on network mean degree, prevalence of preexisting technology, and thresholds of the contagion process. Competition with the preexisting technology effectively suppresses the spread of the new innovation, but it also allows for phases of coexistence. The existence of dual users largely modifies the transient dynamics creating new phases that promote the spread of a new innovation and extinction of a preexisting one. It enables the global spread of the new innovation even if the old one has the first-mover advantage.

Degree correlations amplify the growth of cascades in networks

Networks facilitate the spread of cascades, allowing a local perturbation to percolate via interactions between nodes and their neighbors. We investigate how network structure affects the dynamics of a spreading cascade. By accounting for the joint degree distribution of a network within a generating function framework, we can quantify how degree correlations affect both the onset of global cascades and the propensity of nodes of specific degree class to trigger large cascades. However, not all degree correlations are equally important in a spreading process. We introduce a new measure of degree assortativity that accounts for correlations among nodes relevant to a spreading cascade. We show that the critical point defining the onset of global cascades has a monotone relationship to this new assortativity measure. In addition, we show that the choice of nodes to seed the largest cascades is strongly affected by degree correlations. Contrary to traditional wisdom, when degree assortativity is positive, low degree nodes are more likely to generate largest cascades. Our work suggests that it may be possible to tailor spreading processes by manipulating the higher-order structure of networks.

Information filtering by smart nodes in random networks

Diffusion of information in social networks has drawn extensive attention from various scientific communities, with many contagion models proposed to explain related phenomena. In this paper, we present a simple contagion mechanism, in which a node will change its state immediately if it is exposed to the diffusive information. By considering two types of nodes (smart and normal) and two kinds of information (true and false), we study analytically and numerically how smart nodes influence the spreading of information, which leads to information filtering. We find that for randomly distributed smart nodes, the spreading dynamics over random networks with Poisson degree distribution and power-law degree distribution (with relatively small cutoffs) can both be described by the same approximate mean-field equation. Increasing the heterogeneity of the network may elicit more deviations, but not much. Moreover, we demonstrate that more smart nodes make the filtering effect on a random network better. Finally, we study the efficacy of different strategies of selecting smart nodes for information filtering.

Synergistic interactions promote behavior spreading and alter phase transitions on multiplex networks

Synergistic interactions are ubiquitous in the real world. Recent studies have revealed that, for a single-layer network, synergy can enhance spreading and even induce an explosive contagion. There is at the present a growing interest in behavior spreading dynamics on multiplex networks. What is the role of synergistic interactions in behavior spreading in such networked systems? To address this question, we articulate a synergistic behavior spreading model on a double layer network, where the key manifestation of the synergistic interactions is that the adoption of one behavior by a node in one layer enhances its probability of adopting the behavior in the other layer. A general result is that synergistic interactions can greatly enhance the spreading of the behaviors in both layers. A remarkable phenomenon is that the interactions can alter the nature of the phase transition associated with behavior adoption or spreading dynamics. In particular, depending on the transmission rate of one behavior in a network layer, synergistic interactions can lead to a discontinuous (first-order) or a continuous (second-order) transition in the adoption scope of the other behavior with respect to its transmission rate. A surprising two-stage spreading process can arise: due to synergy, nodes having adopted one behavior in one layer adopt the other behavior in the other layer and then prompt the remaining nodes in this layer to quickly adopt the behavior. Analytically, we develop an edge-based compartmental theory and perform a bifurcation analysis to fully understand, in the weak synergistic interaction regime where the dynamical correlation between the network layers is negligible, the role of the interactions in promoting the social behavioral spreading dynamics in the whole system.

Exact analytical solution of irreversible binary dynamics on networks

In binary cascade dynamics, the nodes of a graph are in one of two possible states (inactive, active), and nodes in the inactive state make an irreversible transition to the active state, as soon as their precursors satisfy a predetermined condition. We introduce a set of recursive equations to compute the probability of reaching any final state, given an initial state, and a specification of the transition probability function of each node. Because the naive recursive approach for solving these equations takes factorial time in the number of nodes, we also introduce an accelerated algorithm, built around a breath-first search procedure. This algorithm solves the equations as efficiently as possible in exponential time.

Dynamics of social contagions with local trend imitation

Research on social contagion dynamics has not yet included a theoretical analysis of the ubiquitous local trend imitation (LTI) characteristic. We propose a social contagion model with a tent-like adoption probability to investigate the effect of this LTI characteristic on behavior spreading. We also propose a generalized edge-based compartmental theory to describe the proposed model. Through extensive numerical simulations and theoretical analyses, we find a crossover in the phase transition: when the LTI capacity is strong, the growth of the final adoption size exhibits a second-order phase transition. When the LTI capacity is weak, we see a first-order phase transition. For a given behavioral information transmission probability, there is an optimal LTI capacity that maximizes the final adoption size. Finally we find that the above phenomena are not qualitatively affected by the heterogeneous degree distribution. Our suggested theoretical predictions agree with the simulation results.

Impacts of opinion leaders on social contagions

Opinion leaders are ubiquitous in both online and offline social networks, but the impacts of opinion leaders on social behavior contagions are still not fully understood, especially by using a mathematical model. Here, we generalize the classical Watts threshold model and address the influences of the opinion leaders, where an individual adopts a new behavior if one of his/her opinion leaders adopts the behavior. First, we choose the opinion leaders randomly from all individuals in the network and find that the impacts of opinion leaders make other individuals adopt the behavior more easily. Specifically, the existence of opinion leaders reduces the lowest mean degree of the network required for the global behavior adoption and increases the highest mean degree of the network that the global behavior adoption can occur. Besides, the introduction of opinion leaders accelerates the behavior adoption but does not change the adoption order of individuals. The developed theoretical predictions agree with the simulation results. Second, we randomly choose the opinion leaders from the top h% of the highest degree individuals and find an optimal h% for the network with the lowest mean degree that the global behavior adoption can occur. Meanwhile, the influences of opinion leaders on accelerating the adoption of behaviors become less significant and can even be ignored when reducing the value of h%.

Modelling indirect interactions during failure spreading in a project activity network

Spreading broadly refers to the notion of an entity propagating throughout a networked system via its interacting components. Evidence of its ubiquity and severity can be seen in a range of phenomena, from disease epidemics to financial systemic risk. In order to understand the dynamics of these critical phenomena, computational models map the probability of propagation as a function of direct exposure, typically in the form of pairwise interactions between components. By doing so, the important role of indirect interactions remains unexplored. In response, we develop a simple model that accounts for the effect of both direct and subsequent exposure, which we deploy in the novel context of failure propagation within a real-world engineering project. We show that subsequent exposure has a significant effect in key aspects, including the: (a) final spreading event size, (b) propagation rate, and (c) spreading event structure. In addition, we demonstrate the existence of 'hidden influentials' in large-scale spreading events, and evaluate the role of direct and subsequent exposure in their emergence. Given the evidence of the importance of subsequent exposure, our findings offer new insight on particular aspects that need to be included when modelling network dynamics in general, and spreading processes specifically.

Complex contagions with timers

There has been a great deal of effort to try to model social influence-including the spread of behavior, norms, and ideas-on networks. Most models of social influence tend to assume that individuals react to changes in the states of their neighbors without any time delay, but this is often not true in social contexts, where (for various reasons) different agents can have different response times. To examine such situations, we introduce the idea of a timer into threshold models of social influence. The presence of timers on nodes delays adoptions-i.e., changes of state-by the agents, which in turn delays the adoptions of their neighbors. With a homogeneously-distributed timer, in which all nodes have the same amount of delay, the adoption order of nodes remains the same. However, heterogeneously-distributed timers can change the adoption order of nodes and hence the "adoption paths" through which state changes spread in a network. Using a threshold model of social contagions, we illustrate that heterogeneous timers can either accelerate or decelerate the spread of adoptions compared to an analogous situation with homogeneous timers, and we investigate the relationship of such acceleration or deceleration with respect to the timer distribution and network structure. We derive an analytical approximation for the temporal evolution of the fraction of adopters by modifying a pair approximation for the Watts threshold model, and we find good agreement with numerical simulations. We also examine our new timer model on networks constructed from empirical data.

Threshold driven contagion on weighted networks

Weighted networks capture the structure of complex systems where interaction strength is meaningful. This information is essential to a large number of processes, such as threshold dynamics, where link weights reflect the amount of influence that neighbours have in determining a node's behaviour. Despite describing numerous cascading phenomena, such as neural firing or social contagion, the modelling of threshold dynamics on weighted networks has been largely overlooked. We fill this gap by studying a dynamical threshold model over synthetic and real weighted networks with numerical and analytical tools. We show that the time of cascade emergence depends non-monotonously on weight heterogeneities, which accelerate or decelerate the dynamics, and lead to non-trivial parameter spaces for various networks and weight distributions. Our methodology applies to arbitrary binary state processes and link properties, and may prove instrumental in understanding the role of edge heterogeneities in various natural and social phenomena.

The "weak" interdependence of infrastructure systems produces mixed percolation transitions in multilayer networks

Previous studies of multilayer network robustness model cascading failures via a node-to-node percolation process that assumes "strong" interdependence across layers-once a node in any layer fails, its neighbors in other layers fail immediately and completely with all links removed. This assumption is not true of real interdependent infrastructures that have emergency procedures to buffer against cascades. In this work, we consider a node-to-link failure propagation mechanism and establish "weak" interdependence across layers via a tolerance parameter α which quantifies the likelihood that a node survives when one of its interdependent neighbors fails. Analytical and numerical results show that weak interdependence produces a striking phenomenon: layers at different positions within the multilayer system experience distinct percolation transitions. Especially, layers with high super degree values percolate in an abrupt manner, while those with low super degree values exhibit both continuous and discontinuous transitions. This novel phenomenon we call mixed percolation transitions has significant implications for network robustness. Previous results that do not consider cascade tolerance and layer super degree may be under- or over-estimating the vulnerability of real systems. Moreover, our model reveals how nodal protection activities influence failure dynamics in interdependent, multilayer systems.

Synergistic effects in threshold models on networks

Network structure can have a significant impact on the propagation of diseases, memes, and information on social networks. Different types of spreading processes (and other dynamical processes) are affected by network architecture in different ways, and it is important to develop tractable models of spreading processes on networks to explore such issues. In this paper, we incorporate the idea of synergy into a two-state ("active" or "passive") threshold model of social influence on networks. Our model's update rule is deterministic, and the influence of each meme-carrying (i.e., active) neighbor can-depending on a parameter-either be enhanced or inhibited by an amount that depends on the number of active neighbors of a node. Such a synergistic system models social behavior in which the willingness to adopt either accelerates or saturates in a way that depends on the number of neighbors who have adopted that behavior. We illustrate that our model's synergy parameter has a crucial effect on system dynamics, as it determines whether degree-k nodes are possible or impossible to activate. We simulate synergistic meme spreading on both random-graph models and networks constructed from empirical data. Using a heterogeneous mean-field approximation, which we derive under the assumption that a network is locally tree-like, we are able to determine which synergy-parameter values allow degree-k nodes to be activated for many networks and for a broad family of synergistic models.

Modeling information diffusion in time-varying community networks

Social networks are rarely static, and they typically have time-varying network topologies. A great number of studies have modeled temporal networks and explored social contagion processes within these models; however, few of these studies have considered community structure variations. In this paper, we present a study of how the time-varying property of a modular structure influences the information dissemination. First, we propose a continuous-time Markov model of information diffusion where two parameters, mobility rate and community attractiveness, are introduced to address the time-varying nature of the community structure. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the accuracy of this model is evaluated by comparing the simulation and theoretical results. Furthermore, numerical results illustrate that generally both the mobility rate and community attractiveness significantly promote the information diffusion process, especially in the initial outbreak stage. Moreover, the strength of this promotion effect is much stronger when the modularity is higher. Counterintuitively, it is found that when all communities have the same attractiveness, social mobility no longer accelerates the diffusion process. In addition, we show that the local spreading in the advantage group has been greatly enhanced due to the agglomeration effect caused by the social mobility and community attractiveness difference, which thus increases the global spreading.

Social contagions on weighted networks

We investigate critical behaviors of a social contagion model on weighted networks. An edge-weight compartmental approach is applied to analyze the weighted social contagion on strongly heterogenous networks with skewed degree and weight distributions. We find that degree heterogeneity cannot only alter the nature of contagion transition from discontinuous to continuous but also can enhance or hamper the size of adoption, depending on the unit transmission probability. We also show that the heterogeneity of weight distribution always hinders social contagions, and does not alter the transition type.

Social contagion with degree-dependent thresholds

We investigate opinion spreading by a threshold model in a situation in which the influence of people is heterogeneously distributed. We assume that there is a coupling between the influence of an individual (measured by the out-degree) and the threshold for accepting a new opinion or habit. We find that if the coupling is strongly positive, the final state of the system will be a mix of different opinions. Otherwise, it will converge to a consensus state. This phenomenon cannot simply be explained as a phase transition, but it is a combined effect of mechanisms and their relative dominance in different regions of parameter space.

Inferring network structure from cascades

Many physical, biological, and social phenomena can be described by cascades taking place on a network. Often, the activity can be empirically observed, but not the underlying network of interactions. In this paper we offer three topological methods to infer the structure of any directed network given a set of cascade arrival times. Our formulas hold for a very general class of models where the activation probability of a node is a generic function of its degree and the number of its active neighbors. We report high success rates for synthetic and real networks, for several different cascade models.

Social contagions on interdependent lattice networks

Although an increasing amount of research is being done on the dynamical processes on interdependent spatial networks, knowledge of how interdependent spatial networks influence the dynamics of social contagion in them is sparse. Here we present a novel non-Markovian social contagion model on interdependent spatial networks composed of two identical two-dimensional lattices. We compare the dynamics of social contagion on networks with different fractions of dependency links and find that the density of final recovered nodes increases as the number of dependency links is increased. We use a finite-size analysis method to identify the type of phase transition in the giant connected components (GCC) of the final adopted nodes and find that as we increase the fraction of dependency links, the phase transition switches from second-order to first-order. In strong interdependent spatial networks with abundant dependency links, increasing the fraction of initial adopted nodes can induce the switch from a first-order to second-order phase transition associated with social contagion dynamics. In networks with a small number of dependency links, the phase transition remains second-order. In addition, both the second-order and first-order phase transition points can be decreased by increasing the fraction of dependency links or the number of initially-adopted nodes.

A framework for analyzing contagion in assortative banking networks

We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas our framework explicitly allows for (dis)assortative edge probabilities (i.e., a tendency for small banks to link to large banks). We analyze default cascades triggered by shocking the network and find that the cascade can be understood as an explicit iterated mapping on a set of edge probabilities that converges to a fixed point. We derive a cascade condition, analogous to the basic reproduction number R₀ in epidemic modelling, that characterizes whether or not a single initially defaulted bank can trigger a cascade that extends to a finite fraction of the infinite network. This cascade condition is an easily computed measure of the systemic risk inherent in a given banking network topology. We use percolation theory for random networks to derive a formula for the frequency of global cascades. These analytical results are shown to provide limited quantitative agreement with Monte Carlo simulation studies of finite-sized networks. We show that edge-assortativity, the propensity of nodes to connect to similar nodes, can have a strong effect on the level of systemic risk as measured by the cascade condition. However, the effect of assortativity on systemic risk is subtle, and we propose a simple graph theoretic quantity, which we call the graph-assortativity coefficient, that can be used to assess systemic risk.

Heuristic Strategies for Persuader Selection in Contagions on Complex Networks

Individual decision to accept a new idea or product is often driven by both self-adoption and others' persuasion, which has been simulated using a double threshold model [Huang et al., Scientific Reports 6, 23766 (2016)]. We extend the study to consider the case with limited persuasion. That is, a set of individuals is chosen from the population to be equipped with persuasion capabilities, who may succeed in persuading their friends to take the new entity when certain conditions are satisfied. Network node centrality is adopted to characterize each node's influence, based on which three heuristic strategies are applied to pick out persuaders. We compare these strategies for persuader selection on both homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. Two regimes of the underline networks are identified in which the system exhibits distinct behaviors: when networks are sufficiently sparse, selecting persuader nodes in descending order of node centrality achieves the best performance; when networks are sufficiently dense, however, selecting nodes with medium centralities to serve as the persuaders performs the best. Under respective optimal strategies for different types of networks, we further probe which centrality measure is most suitable for persuader selection. It turns out that for the first regime, degree centrality offers the best measure for picking out persuaders from homogeneous networks; while in heterogeneous networks, betweenness centrality takes its place. In the second regime, there is no significant difference caused by centrality measures in persuader selection for homogeneous network; while for heterogeneous networks, closeness centrality offers the best measure.

Influence of trust in the spreading of information

The understanding and prediction of information diffusion processes on networks is a major challenge in network theory with many implications in social sciences. Many theoretical advances occurred due to stochastic spreading models. Nevertheless, these stochastic models overlooked the influence of rational decisions on the outcome of the process. For instance, different levels of trust in acquaintances do play a role in information spreading, and actors may change their spreading decisions during the information diffusion process accordingly. Here, we study an information-spreading model in which the decision to transmit or not is based on trust. We explore the interplay between the propagation of information and the trust dynamics happening on a two-layer multiplex network. Actors' trustable or untrustable states are defined as accumulated cooperation or defection behaviors, respectively, in a Prisoner's Dilemma setup, and they are controlled by a memory span. The propagation of information is abstracted as a threshold model on the information-spreading layer, where the threshold depends on the trustability of agents. The analysis of the model is performed using a tree approximation and validated on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. The results show that the memory of previous actions has a significant effect on the spreading of information. For example, the less memory that is considered, the higher is the diffusion. Information is highly promoted by the emergence of trustable acquaintances. These results provide insight into the effect of plausible biases on spreading dynamics in a multilevel networked system.

Clustering determines the dynamics of complex contagions in multiplex networks

We present the mathematical analysis of generalized complex contagions in a class of clustered multiplex networks. The model is intended to understand spread of influence, or any other spreading process implying a threshold dynamics, in setups of interconnected networks with significant clustering. The contagion is assumed to be general enough to account for a content-dependent linear threshold model, where each link type has a different weight (for spreading influence) that may depend on the content (e.g., product, rumor, political view) that is being spread. Using the generating functions formalism, we determine the conditions, probability, and expected size of the emergent global cascades. This analysis provides a generalization of previous approaches and is especially useful in problems related to spreading and percolation. The results present nontrivial dependencies between the clustering coefficient of the networks and its average degree. In particular, several phase transitions are shown to occur depending on these descriptors. Generally speaking, our findings reveal that increasing clustering decreases the probability of having global cascades and their size, however, this tendency changes with the average degree. There exists a certain average degree from which on clustering favors the probability and size of the contagion. By comparing the dynamics of complex contagions over multiplex networks and their monoplex projections, we demonstrate that ignoring link types and aggregating network layers may lead to inaccurate conclusions about contagion dynamics, particularly when the correlation of degrees between layers is high.

Optimal information diffusion in stochastic block models

We use the linear threshold model to study the diffusion of information on a network generated by the stochastic block model. We focus our analysis on a two-community structure where the initial set of informed nodes lies only in one of the two communities and we look for optimal network structures, i.e., those maximizing the asymptotic extent of the diffusion. We find that, constraining the mean degree and the fraction of initially informed nodes, the optimal structure can be assortative (modular), core-periphery, or even disassortative. We then look for minimal cost structures, i.e., those for which a minimal fraction of initially informed nodes is needed to trigger a global cascade. We find that the optimal networks are assortative but with a structure very close to a core-periphery graph, i.e., a very dense community linked to a much more sparsely connected periphery.

Equivalence of several generalized percolation models on networks

In recent years, many variants of percolation have been used to study network structure and the behavior of processes spreading on networks. These include bond percolation, site percolation, k-core percolation, bootstrap percolation, the generalized epidemic process, and the Watts threshold model (WTM). We show that-except for bond percolation-each of these processes arises as a special case of the WTM, and bond percolation arises from a small modification. In fact "heterogeneous k-core percolation," a corresponding "heterogeneous bootstrap percolation" model, and the generalized epidemic process are completely equivalent to one another and the WTM. We further show that a natural generalization of the WTM in which individuals "transmit" or "send a message" to their neighbors with some probability less than 1 can be reformulated in terms of the WTM, and so this apparent generalization is in fact not more general. Finally, we show that in bond percolation, finding the set of nodes in the component containing a given node is equivalent to finding the set of nodes activated if that node is initially activated and the node thresholds are chosen from the appropriate distribution. A consequence of these results is that mathematical techniques developed for the WTM apply to these other models as well, and techniques that were developed for some particular case may in fact apply much more generally.

Epidemic spreading on complex networks with community structures

Many real-world networks display a community structure. We study two random graph models that create a network with similar community structure as a given network. One model preserves the exact community structure of the original network, while the other model only preserves the set of communities and the vertex degrees. These models show that community structure is an important determinant of the behavior of percolation processes on networks, such as information diffusion or virus spreading: the community structure can both enforce as well as inhibit diffusion processes. Our models further show that it is the mesoscopic set of communities that matters. The exact internal structures of communities barely influence the behavior of percolation processes across networks. This insensitivity is likely due to the relative denseness of the communities.

Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behaviour govern online adoption spreading

Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis and modelling of product adoption in the world’s largest voice over internet service, the social network of Skype. We provide empirical evidence about the heterogeneous distribution of fractional behavioural thresholds, which appears to be independent of the degree of adopting egos. We show that the structure of real-world adoption clusters is radically different from previous theoretical expectations, since vulnerable adoptions—induced by a single adopting neighbour—appear to be important only locally, while spontaneous adopters arriving at a constant rate and the involvement of unconcerned individuals govern the global emergence of social spreading.

Universality classes of the generalized epidemic process on random networks

We present a self-contained discussion of the universality classes of the generalized epidemic process (GEP) on Poisson random networks, which is a simple model of social contagions with cooperative effects. These effects lead to rich phase transitional behaviors that include continuous and discontinuous transitions with tricriticality in between. With the help of a comprehensive finite-size scaling theory, we numerically confirm static and dynamic scaling behaviors of the GEP near continuous phase transitions and at tricriticality, which verifies the field-theoretical results of previous studies. We also propose a proper criterion for the discontinuous transition line, which is shown to coincide with the bond percolation threshold.

Growth, collapse, and self-organized criticality in complex networks

Network growth is ubiquitous in nature (e.g., biological networks) and technological systems (e.g., modern infrastructures). To understand how certain dynamical behaviors can or cannot persist as the underlying network grows is a problem of increasing importance in complex dynamical systems as well as sustainability science and engineering. We address the question of whether a complex network of nonlinear oscillators can maintain its synchronization stability as it expands. We find that a large scale avalanche over the entire network can be triggered in the sense that the individual nodal dynamics diverges from the synchronous state in a cascading manner within a relatively short time period. In particular, after an initial stage of linear growth, the network typically evolves into a critical state where the addition of a single new node can cause a group of nodes to lose synchronization, leading to synchronization collapse for the entire network. A statistical analysis reveals that the collapse size is approximately algebraically distributed, indicating the emergence of self-organized criticality. We demonstrate the generality of the phenomenon of synchronization collapse using a variety of complex network models, and uncover the underlying dynamical mechanism through an eigenvector analysis.