Model for interevent times with long tails and multifractality in human communications: an application to financial trading

Barkhausen noise in disordered striplike ferromagnets: Experiment versus simulations

In this work, we present a systematic comparison of the results obtained from the low-frequency Barkhausen noise recordings in nanocrystalline samples with those from the numerical simulations of the random-field Ising model systems. We performed measurements at room temperature on a field-driven metallic glass stripe made of VITROPERM 800 R, a nanocrystalline iron-based material with an excellent combination of soft and magnetic properties, making it a cutting-edge material for a wide range of applications. Given that the Barkhausen noise emissions emerging along a hysteresis curve are stochastic and depend in general on a variety of factors (such as distribution of disorder due to impurities or defects, varied size of crystal grains, type of domain structure, driving rate of the external magnetic field, sample shape and temperature, etc.), adequate theoretical modeling is essential for their interpretation and prediction. Here the Random field Ising model, specifically its athermal nonequilibrium version with the finite driving rate, stands out as an appropriate choice due to the material's nanocrystalline structure and high Curie temperature. We performed a systematic analysis of the signal properties and magnetization avalanches comparing the outcomes of the numerical model and experiments carried out in a two-decade-wide range of the external magnetic field driving rates. Our results reveal that with a suitable choice of parameters, a considerable match with the experimental results is achieved, indicating that this model can accurately describe the Barkhausen noise features in nanocrystalline samples.

Multifractal Company Market: An Application to the Stock Market Indices

Using the multiscale normalized partition function, we exploit the multifractal analysis based on directly measurable shares of companies in the market. We present evidence that markets of competing firms are multifractal/multiscale. We verified this by (i) using our model that described the critical properties of the company market and (ii) analyzing a real company market defined by the S&P500 index. As the valuable reference case, we considered a four-group market model that skillfully reconstructs this index’s empirical data. We point out that a four-group company market organization is universal because it can perfectly describe the essential features of the spectrum of dimensions, regardless of the analyzed series of shares. The apparent differences from the empirical data appear only at the level of subtle effects.

Multibranch multifractality and the phase transitions in time series of mean interevent times

Empirical time series of interevent or waiting times are investigated using a modified Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis operating on fluctuations of mean detrended dynamics. The core of the extended multifractal analysis is the nonmonotonic behavior of the generalized Hurst exponent h(q)-the fundamental exponent in the study of multifractals. The consequence of this behavior is the nonmonotonic behavior of the coarse Hölder exponent α(q) leading to multibranchedness of the spectrum of dimensions. The Legendre-Fenchel transform is used instead of the routinely used canonical Legendre (single-branched) contact transform. Thermodynamic consequences of the multibranched multifractality are revealed. These are directly expressed in the language of phase transitions between thermally stable, metastable, and unstable phases. These phase transitions are of the first and second orders according to Mandelbrot's modified Ehrenfest classification. The discovery of multibranchedness is tantamount in significance to extending multifractal analysis.

Multifractal analysis of financial markets: a review

Multifractality is ubiquitously observed in complex natural and socioeconomic systems. Multifractal analysis provides powerful tools to understand the complex nonlinear nature of time series in diverse fields. Inspired by its striking analogy with hydrodynamic turbulence, from which the idea of multifractality originated, multifractal analysis of financial markets has bloomed, forming one of the main directions of econophysics. We review the multifractal analysis methods and multifractal models adopted in or invented for financial time series and their subtle properties, which are applicable to time series in other disciplines. We survey the cumulating evidence for the presence of multifractality in financial time series in different markets and at different time periods and discuss the sources of multifractality. The usefulness of multifractal analysis in quantifying market inefficiency, in supporting risk management and in developing other applications is presented. We finally discuss open problems and further directions of multifractal analysis.

Universal temporal characteristics and vanishing of multifractality in Barkhausen avalanches

Barkhausen effect in ferromagnetic materials provides an excellent area for investigating scaling phenomena found in disordered systems exhibiting crackling noise. The critical dynamics is characterized by random pulses or avalanches with scale-invariant properties, power-law distributions, and universal features. However, the traditional Barkhausen avalanches statistics may not be sufficient to fully characterize the complex temporal correlation of the magnetic domain walls dynamics. Here we focus on the multifractal scenario to quantify the temporal scaling characteristics of Barkhausen avalanches in polycrystalline and amorphous ferromagnetic films with thicknesses from 50 to 1000 nm. We show that the multifractal properties are dependent on film thickness, although they seem to be insensitive to the structural character of the materials. Moreover, we observe for the first time the vanishing of the multifractality in the domain walls dynamics. As the thickness is reduced, the multifractal behavior gives place to a monofractal one over the entire range of time scales. This reorganization in the temporal scaling characteristics of Barkhausen avalanches is understood as a universal restructuring associated to the dimensional crossover, from three- to two-dimensional magnetization dynamics.

Universality of market superstatistics

We use a key concept of the continuous-time random walk formalism, i.e., continuous and fluctuating interevent times in which mutual dependence is taken into account, to model market fluctuation data when traders experience excessive (or superthreshold) losses or excessive (or superthreshold) profits. We analytically derive a class of "superstatistics" that accurately model empirical market activity data supplied by Bogachev, Ludescher, Tsallis, and Bunde that exhibit transition thresholds. We measure the interevent times between excessive losses and excessive profits and use the mean interevent discrete (or step) time as a control variable to derive a universal description of empirical data collapse. Our dominant superstatistic value is a power-law corrected by the lower incomplete gamma function, which asymptotically tends toward robustness but initially gives an exponential. We find that the scaling shape exponent that drives our superstatistics subordinates itself and a "superscaling" configuration emerges. Thanks to the Weibull copula function, our approach reproduces the empirically proven dependence between successive interevent times. We also use the approach to calculate a dynamic risk function and hence the dynamic VaR, which is significant in financial risk analysis. Our results indicate that there is a functional (but not literal) balance between excessive profits and excessive losses that can be described using the same body of superstatistics but different calibration values and driving parameters. We also extend our original approach to cover empirical seismic activity data (e.g., given by Corral), the interevent times of which range from minutes to years. Superpositioned superstatistics is another class of superstatistics that protects power-law behavior both for short- and long-time behaviors. These behaviors describe well the collapse of seismic activity data and capture so-called volatility clustering phenomena.

Detrended fluctuation analysis made flexible to detect range of cross-correlated fluctuations

The detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρ(DCCA) has recently been proposed to quantify the strength of cross-correlations on different temporal scales in bivariate, nonstationary time series. It is based on the detrended cross-correlation and detrended fluctuation analyses (DCCA and DFA, respectively) and can be viewed as an analog of the Pearson coefficient in the case of the fluctuation analysis. The coefficient ρ(DCCA) works well in many practical situations but by construction its applicability is limited to detection of whether two signals are generally cross-correlated, without the possibility to obtain information on the amplitude of fluctuations that are responsible for those cross-correlations. In order to introduce some related flexibility, here we propose an extension of ρ(DCCA) that exploits the multifractal versions of DFA and DCCA: multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, respectively. The resulting new coefficient ρ(q) not only is able to quantify the strength of correlations but also allows one to identify the range of detrended fluctuation amplitudes that are correlated in two signals under study. We show how the coefficient ρ(q) works in practical situations by applying it to stochastic time series representing processes with long memory: autoregressive and multiplicative ones. Such processes are often used to model signals recorded from complex systems and complex physical phenomena like turbulence, so we are convinced that this new measure can successfully be applied in time-series analysis. In particular, we present an example of such application to highly complex empirical data from financial markets. The present formulation can straightforwardly be extended to multivariate data in terms of the q-dependent counterpart of the correlation matrices and then to the network representation.

Understanding the heavy-tailed dynamics in human behavior

The recent availability of electronic data sets containing large volumes of communication data has made it possible to study human behavior on a larger scale than ever before. From this, it has been discovered that across a diverse range of data sets, the interevent times between consecutive communication events obey heavy-tailed power law dynamics. Explaining this has proved controversial, and two distinct hypotheses have emerged. The first holds that these power laws are fundamental, and arise from the mechanisms such as priority queuing that humans use to schedule tasks. The second holds that they are statistical artifacts which only occur in aggregated data when features such as circadian rhythms and burstiness are ignored. We use a large social media data set to test these hypotheses, and find that although models that incorporate circadian rhythms and burstiness do explain part of the observed heavy tails, there is residual unexplained heavy-tail behavior which suggests a more fundamental cause. Based on this, we develop a quantitative model of human behavior which improves on existing approaches and gives insight into the mechanisms underlying human interactions.

Multifractal properties of ball milling dynamics

This work focuses on the dynamics of a ball inside the reactor of a ball mill. We show that the distribution of collisions at the reactor walls exhibits multifractal properties in a wide region of the parameter space defining the geometrical characteristics of the reactor and the collision elasticity. This feature points to the presence of restricted self-organized zones of the reactor walls where the ball preferentially collides and the mechanical energy is mainly dissipated.

Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics

We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing patterns in price prediction and risk management optimization on different stock markets.

Detrended cross-correlation analysis consistently extended to multifractality

We propose an algorithm, multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MFCCA), which constitutes a consistent extension of the detrended cross-correlation analysis and is able to properly identify and quantify subtle characteristics of multifractal cross-correlations between two time series. Our motivation for introducing this algorithm is that the already existing methods, like multifractal extension, have at best serious limitations for most of the signals describing complex natural processes and often indicate multifractal cross-correlations when there are none. The principal component of the present extension is proper incorporation of the sign of fluctuations to their generalized moments. Furthermore, we present a broad analysis of the model fractal stochastic processes as well as of the real-world signals and show that MFCCA is a robust and selective tool at the same time and therefore allows for a reliable quantification of the cross-correlative structure of analyzed processes. In particular, it allows one to identify the boundaries of the multifractal scaling and to analyze a relation between the generalized Hurst exponent and the multifractal scaling parameter λ(q). This relation provides information about the character of potential multifractality in cross-correlations and thus enables a deeper insight into dynamics of the analyzed processes than allowed by any other related method available so far. By using examples of time series from the stock market, we show that financial fluctuations typically cross-correlate multifractally only for relatively large fluctuations, whereas small fluctuations remain mutually independent even at maximum of such cross-correlations. Finally, we indicate possible utility of MFCCA to study effects of the time-lagged cross-correlations.

Multifractality in domain wall dynamics of a ferromagnetic film

We investigate the multifractal properties in the dynamics of domain walls of a ferromagnetic film. We apply the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis method in experimental Barkhausen noise time series measured in a 1000-nm-thick Permalloy film under different driving magnetic field frequencies, and calculate the fluctuation function F_{q}(s), generalized Hurst exponent h(q), multifractal scaling exponent τ(q), and the multifractal spectrum f(α). Based on this procedure, we provide experimental evidence of multifractality in the dynamics of domain walls in ferromagnetic films and identify a rich and strong multifractal behavior, revealed by the changes of the scaling properties of over the entire Barkhausen noise signal, independently of the driving magnetic field rate employed in the experiment.

Quantifying reflexivity in financial markets: toward a prediction of flash crashes

We introduce a measure of activity of financial markets that provides a direct access to their level of endogeneity. This measure quantifies how much of price changes is due to endogenous feedback processes, as opposed to exogenous news. For this, we calibrate the self-excited conditional Poisson Hawkes model, which combines in a natural and parsimonious way exogenous influences with self-excited dynamics, to the E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts traded in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from 1998 to 2010. We find that the level of endogeneity has increased significantly from 1998 to 2010, with only 70% in 1998 to less than 30% since 2007 of the price changes resulting from some revealed exogenous information. Analogous to nuclear plant safety measures concerned with avoiding "criticality," our measure provides a direct quantification of the distance of the financial market from a critical state defined precisely as the limit of diverging trading activity in the absence of any external driving.

Backward jump continuous-time random walk: an application to market trading

The backward jump modification of the continuous-time random walk model or the version of the model driven by the negative feedback was herein derived for spatiotemporal continuum in the context of a share price evolution on a stock exchange. In the frame of the model, we described stochastic evolution of a typical share price on a stock exchange with a moderate liquidity within a high-frequency time scale. The model was validated by satisfactory agreement of the theoretical velocity autocorrelation function with its empirical counterpart obtained for the continuous quotation. This agreement is mainly a result of a sharp backward correlation found and considered in this article. This correlation is a reminiscence of such a bid-ask bounce phenomenon where backward price jump has the same or almost the same length as preceding jump. We suggested that this correlation dominated the dynamics of the stock market with moderate liquidity. Although assumptions of the model were inspired by the market high-frequency empirical data, its potential applications extend beyond the financial market, for instance, to the field covered by the Le Chatelier-Braun principle of contrariness.