Global attractors and extinction dynamics of cyclically competing species

Computing macroscopic reaction rates in reaction-diffusion systems using Monte Carlo simulations

Stochastic reaction-diffusion models are employed to represent many complex physical, biological, societal, and ecological systems. The macroscopic reaction rates describing the large-scale, long-time kinetics in such systems are effective, scale-dependent renormalized parameters that need to be either measured experimentally or computed by means of a microscopic model. In a Monte Carlo simulation of stochastic reaction-diffusion systems, microscopic probabilities for specific events to happen serve as the input control parameters. To match the results of any computer simulation to observations or experiments carried out on the macroscale, a mapping is required between the microscopic probabilities that define the Monte Carlo algorithm and the macroscopic reaction rates that are experimentally measured. Finding the functional dependence of emergent macroscopic rates on the microscopic probabilities (subject to specific rules of interaction) is a very difficult problem, and there is currently no systematic, accurate analytical way to achieve this goal. Therefore, we introduce a straightforward numerical method of using lattice Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the macroscopic reaction rates by directly obtaining the count statistics of how many events occur per simulation time step. Our technique is first tested on well-understood fundamental examples, namely, restricted birth processes, diffusion-limited two-particle coagulation, and two-species pair annihilation kinetics. Next we utilize the thus gained experience to investigate how the microscopic algorithmic probabilities become coarse-grained into effective macroscopic rates in more complex model systems such as the Lotka-Volterra model for predator-prey competition and coexistence, as well as the rock-paper-scissors or cyclic Lotka-Volterra model and its May-Leonard variant that capture population dynamics with cyclic dominance motifs. Thereby we achieve a more thorough and deeper understanding of coarse graining in spatially extended stochastic reaction-diffusion systems and the nontrivial relationships between the associated microscopic and macroscopic model parameters, with a focus on ecological systems. The proposed technique should generally provide a useful means to better fit Monte Carlo simulation results to experimental or observational data.

Universal scaling of extinction time in stochastic evolutionary dynamics

Evolutionary dynamics is well captured by the replicator equations when the population is infinite and well-mixed. However, the extinction dynamics is modified with finite and structured populations. Experiments on the non-transitive ecosystem containing three populations of bacteria found that the ecological stability sensitively depends on the spatial structure of the populations. Based on the Reference-Gamble-Birth algorithm, we use agent-based Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the extinction dynamics in the rock-paper-scissors ecosystem with finite and structured populations. On the fully-connected network, the extinction time in stable and unstable regimes falls into two universal functions when plotted with the rescaled variables. On the two dimensional grid, the spatial structure changes the transition boundary between stable and unstable regimes but doesn't change its extinction trend. The finding of universal scaling in extinction dynamics is unexpected, and may provide a powerful method to classify different evolutionary dynamics into universal classes.

The onset of dissipative chaos driven by nonequilibrium conditions

Dissipative chaos appears widely in various nonequilibrium systems; however, it is not clear how dissipative chaos originates from nonequilibrium. We discuss a framework based on the potential-flux approach to study chaos from the perspective of nonequilibrium dynamics. In this framework, chaotic systems possess a wide basin on the potential landscape, in which the rotational flux dominates the system dynamics, and chaos occurs with the appearance of this basin. In contrast, the probability flux is particularly associated with the detailed balance-breaking in nonequilibrium systems. This implies that the appearance of dissipative chaos is driven by nonequilibrium conditions.

The effect of habitats and fitness on species coexistence in systems with cyclic dominance

Cyclic dominance between species may yield spiral waves that are known to provide a mechanism enabling persistent species coexistence. This observation holds true even in presence of spatial heterogeneity in the form of quenched disorder. In this work we study the effects on spatio-temporal patterns and species coexistence of structured spatial heterogeneity in the form of habitats that locally provide one of the species with an advantage. Performing extensive numerical simulations of systems with three and six species we show that these structured habitats destabilize spiral waves. Analyzing extinction events, we find that species extinction probabilities display a succession of maxima as function of time, that indicate a periodically enhanced probability for species extinction. Analysis of the mean extinction time reveals that as a function of the parameter governing the advantage of one of the species a transition between stable coexistence and unstable coexistence takes place. We also investigate how efficiency as a predator or a prey affects species coexistence.

Coevolution of nodes and links: Diversity-driven coexistence in cyclic competition of three species

When three species compete cyclically in a well-mixed, stochastic system of N individuals, extinction is known to typically occur at times scaling as the system size N. This happens, for example, in rock-paper-scissors games or conserved Lotka-Volterra models in which every pair of individuals can interact on a complete graph. Here we show that if the competing individuals also have a "social temperament" to be either introverted or extroverted, leading them to cut or add links, respectively, then long-living states in which all species coexist can occur. These nonequilibrium quasisteady states only occur when both introverts and extroverts are present, thus showing that diversity can lead to stability in complex systems. In this case, it enables a subtle balance between species competition and network dynamics to be maintained.

Asymmetric interplay leads to robust coexistence by means of a global attractor in the spatial dynamics of cyclic competition

In the past decade, there have been many efforts to understand the species interplay with biodiversity in cyclic games within the macro and microscopic levels. In this direction, mobility and intraspecific competition have been found to be the main factors promoting coexistence in spatially extended systems. In this paper, we explore the relevant effect of asymmetric competitions coupled with mobility on the coexistence of cyclically competing species. By examining the coexistence probability, we have found that mobility can facilitate coexistence in the limited cases of asymmetric competition and can be well predicted by the basin structure of the deterministic system. In addition, it is found that mobility can have beneficial and harmful effects on coexistence when all competitions occur asymmetrically. We also found that the coexistence in the spatial dynamics ultimately becomes a global attractor. We hope to provide insights into the associated effects of asymmetric interplays on species coexistence in a spatially extended system and understand the biodiversity of asymmetrically competitive species under more complex competition structures.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Characterization of phase transitions in a model ecosystem of sessile species

We consider a model ecosystem of sessile species competing for space. In particular, we consider the system introduced by Mathiesen et al. [J. Mathiesen, N. Mitarai, K. Sneppen, and A. Trusina, Phys. Rev. Lett. 107, 188101 (2011)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.107.188101] where species compete according to a fixed interaction network with links determined by a Bernoulli process. In the limit of a small introduction rate of new species, the model exhibits a discontinuous transition from a high-diversity state to a low-diversity state as the interaction probability between species, γ, is increased from zero. Here we explore the effects of finite introduction rates and system size on the phase transition by utilizing efficient parallel computing. We find that the low state appears for γ>γ_{c}. As γ is increased further, the high state approaches the low state, suggesting the possibility that the two states merge at a high γ. We find that the fraction of time spent in the high state becomes longer with higher introduction rates, but the availability of the two states is rather insensitive to the value of the introduction rate. Furthermore, we establish a relation between the introduction rate and the system size, which preserves the probability for the system to remain in the high-diversity state.

Analytically tractable model for community ecology with many species

A fundamental problem in community ecology is understanding how ecological processes such as selection, drift, and immigration give rise to observed patterns in species composition and diversity. Here, we analyze a recently introduced, analytically tractable, presence-absence (PA) model for community assembly, and we use it to ask how ecological traits such as the strength of competition, the amount of diversity, and demographic and environmental stochasticity affect species composition in a community. In the PA model, species are treated as stochastic binary variables that can either be present or absent in a community: species can immigrate into the community from a regional species pool and can go extinct due to competition and stochasticity. Building upon previous work, we show that, despite its simplicity, the PA model reproduces the qualitative features of more complicated models of community assembly. In agreement with recent studies of large, competitive Lotka-Volterra systems, the PA model exhibits distinct ecological behaviors organized around a special ("critical") point corresponding to Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity. These results suggest that the concepts of ecological "phases" and phase diagrams can provide a powerful framework for thinking about community ecology, and that the PA model captures the essential ecological dynamics of community assembly.

Synchronization and extinction in cyclic games with mixed strategies

We consider cyclic Lotka-Volterra models with three and four strategies where at every interaction agents play a strategy using a time-dependent probability distribution. Agents learn from a loss by reducing the probability to play a losing strategy at the next interaction. For that, an agent is described as an urn containing β balls of three and four types, respectively, where after a loss one of the balls corresponding to the losing strategy is replaced by a ball representing the winning strategy. Using both mean-field rate equations and numerical simulations, we investigate a range of quantities that allows us to characterize the properties of these cyclic models with time-dependent probability distributions. For the three-strategy case in a spatial setting we observe a transition from neutrally stable to stable when changing the level of discretization of the probability distribution. For large values of β, yielding a good approximation to a continuous distribution, spatially synchronized temporal oscillations dominate the system. For the four-strategy game the system is always neutrally stable, but different regimes emerge, depending on the size of the system and the level of discretization.

How turbulence regulates biodiversity in systems with cyclic competition

Cyclic, nonhierarchical interactions among biological species represent a general mechanism by which ecosystems are able to maintain high levels of biodiversity. However, species coexistence is often possible only in spatially extended systems with a limited range of dispersal, whereas in well-mixed environments models for cyclic competition often lead to a loss of biodiversity. Here we consider the dispersal of biological species in a fluid environment, where mixing is achieved by a combination of advection and diffusion. In particular, we perform a detailed numerical analysis of a model composed of turbulent advection, diffusive transport, and cyclic interactions among biological species in two spatial dimensions and discuss the circumstances under which biodiversity is maintained when external environmental conditions, such as resource supply, are uniform in space. Cyclic interactions are represented by a model with three competitors, resembling the children's game of rock-paper-scissors, whereas the flow field is obtained from a direct numerical simulation of two-dimensional turbulence with hyperviscosity. It is shown that the space-averaged dynamics undergoes bifurcations as the relative strengths of advection and diffusion compared to biological interactions are varied.

Cyclic dominance in evolutionary games: a review

Rock is wrapped by paper, paper is cut by scissors and scissors are crushed by rock. This simple game is popular among children and adults to decide on trivial disputes that have no obvious winner, but cyclic dominance is also at the heart of predator-prey interactions, the mating strategy of side-blotched lizards, the overgrowth of marine sessile organisms and competition in microbial populations. Cyclical interactions also emerge spontaneously in evolutionary games entailing volunteering, reward, punishment, and in fact are common when the competing strategies are three or more, regardless of the particularities of the game. Here, we review recent advances on the rock-paper-scissors (RPS) and related evolutionary games, focusing, in particular, on pattern formation, the impact of mobility and the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance. We also review mean-field and zero-dimensional RPS models and the application of the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation, and we highlight the importance and usefulness of statistical physics for the successful study of large-scale ecological systems. Directions for future research, related, for example, to dynamical effects of coevolutionary rules and invasion reversals owing to multi-point interactions, are also outlined.

Non-equilibrium physics and evolution--adaptation, extinction, and ecology: a key issues review

Evolutionary dynamics in nature constitute an immensely complex non-equilibrium process. We review the application of physical models of evolution, by focusing on adaptation, extinction, and ecology. In each case, we examine key concepts by working through examples. Adaptation is discussed in the context of bacterial evolution, with a view toward the relationship between growth rates, mutation rates, selection strength, and environmental changes. Extinction dynamics for an isolated population are reviewed, with emphasis on the relation between timescales of extinction, population size, and temporally correlated noise. Ecological models are discussed by focusing on the effect of spatial interspecies interactions on diversity. Connections between physical processes--such as diffusion, turbulence, and localization--and evolutionary phenomena are highlighted.

Specialization and bet hedging in heterogeneous populations

Phenotypic heterogeneity is a strategy commonly used by bacteria to rapidly adapt to changing environmental conditions. Here, we study the interplay between phenotypic heterogeneity and genetic diversity in spatially extended populations. By analyzing the spatiotemporal dynamics, we show that the level of mobility and the type of competition qualitatively influence the persistence of phenotypic heterogeneity. While direct competition generally promotes persistence of phenotypic heterogeneity, specialization dominates in models with indirect competition irrespective of the degree of mobility.

Characterization of spiraling patterns in spatial rock-paper-scissors games

The spatiotemporal arrangement of interacting populations often influences the maintenance of species diversity and is a subject of intense research. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns arising from the cyclic competition between three species in two dimensions. Inspired by recent experiments, we consider a generic metapopulation model comprising "rock-paper-scissors" interactions via dominance removal and replacement, reproduction, mutations, pair exchange, and hopping of individuals. By combining analytical and numerical methods, we obtain the model's phase diagram near its Hopf bifurcation and quantitatively characterize the properties of the spiraling patterns arising in each phase. The phases characterizing the cyclic competition away from the Hopf bifurcation (at low mutation rate) are also investigated. Our analytical approach relies on the careful analysis of the properties of the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation derived through a controlled (perturbative) multiscale expansion around the model's Hopf bifurcation. Our results allow us to clarify when spatial "rock-paper-scissors" competition leads to stable spiral waves and under which circumstances they are influenced by nonlinear mobility.

Mobility-dependent selection of competing strategy associations

Standard models of population dynamics focus on the interaction, survival, and extinction of the competing species individually. Real ecological systems, however, are characterized by an abundance of species (or strategies, in the terminology of evolutionary-game theory) that form intricate, complex interaction networks. The description of the ensuing dynamics may be aided by studying associations of certain strategies rather than individual ones. Here we show how such a higher-level description can bear fruitful insight. Motivated from different strains of colicinogenic Escherichia coli bacteria, we investigate a four-strategy system which contains a three-strategy cycle and a neutral alliance of two strategies. We find that the stochastic, spatial model exhibits a mobility-dependent selection of either the three-strategy cycle or of the neutral pair. We analyze this intriguing phenomenon numerically and analytically.

Diverging fluctuations in a spatial five-species cyclic dominance game

A five-species predator-prey model is studied on a square lattice where each species has two prey and two predators on the analogy to the rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock game. The evolution of the spatial distribution of species is governed by site exchange and invasion between the neighboring predator-prey pairs, where the cyclic symmetry can be characterized by two different invasion rates. The mean-field analysis has indicated periodic oscillations in the species densities with a frequency becoming zero for a specific ratio of invasion rates. When varying the ratio of invasion rates, the appearance of this zero-eigenvalue mode is accompanied by neutrality between the species associations. Monte Carlo simulations of the spatial system reveal diverging fluctuations at a specific invasion rate, which can be related to the vanishing dominance between all pairs of species associations.