Endemic infections are always possible on regular networks

The role of social structure and dynamics in the maintenance of endemic disease

Social interactions are required for the direct transmission of infectious diseases. Consequently, the social network structure of populations plays a key role in shaping infectious disease dynamics. A huge research effort has examined how specific social network structures make populations more (or less) vulnerable to damaging epidemics. However, it can be just as important to understand how social networks can contribute to endemic disease dynamics, in which pathogens are maintained at stable levels for prolonged periods of time. Hosts that can maintain endemic disease may serve as keystone hosts for multi-host pathogens within an ecological community, and also have greater potential to act as key wildlife reservoirs of agricultural and zoonotic diseases. Here, we examine combinations of social and demographic processes that can foster endemic disease in hosts. We synthesise theoretical and empirical work to demonstrate the importance of both social structure and social dynamics in maintaining endemic disease. We also highlight the importance of distinguishing between the local and global persistence of infection and reveal how different social processes drive variation in the scale at which infectious diseases appear endemic. Our synthesis provides a framework by which to understand how sociality contributes to the long-term maintenance of infectious disease in wildlife hosts and provides a set of tools to unpick the social and demographic mechanisms involved in any given host-pathogen system.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00265-021-03055-8.

Relaxation dynamics of maximally clustered networks

We study the relaxation dynamics of fully clustered networks (maximal number of triangles) to an unclustered state under two different edge dynamics-the double-edge swap, corresponding to degree-preserving randomization of the configuration model, and single edge replacement, corresponding to full randomization of the Erdős-Rényi random graph. We derive expressions for the time evolution of the degree distribution, edge multiplicity distribution and clustering coefficient. We show that under both dynamics networks undergo a continuous phase transition in which a giant connected component is formed. We calculate the position of the phase transition analytically using the Erdős-Rényi phenomenology.

Analysis of the communities of an urban mobile phone network

Being able to characterise the patterns of communications between individuals across different time scales is of great importance in understanding people's social interactions. Here, we present a detailed analysis of the community structure of the network of mobile phone calls in the metropolitan area of Milan revealing temporal patterns of communications between people. We show that circadian and weekly patterns can be found in the evolution of communities, presenting evidence that these cycles arise not only at the individual level but also at that of social groups. Our findings suggest that these trends are present across a range of time scales, from hours to days and weeks, and can be used to detect socially relevant events.

Synchronization in networks with multiple interaction layers

The structure of many real-world systems is best captured by networks consisting of several interaction layers. Understanding how a multilayered structure of connections affects the synchronization properties of dynamical systems evolving on top of it is a highly relevant endeavor in mathematics and physics and has potential applications in several socially relevant topics, such as power grid engineering and neural dynamics. We propose a general framework to assess the stability of the synchronized state in networks with multiple interaction layers, deriving a necessary condition that generalizes the master stability function approach. We validate our method by applying it to a network of Rössler oscillators with a double layer of interactions and show that highly rich phenomenology emerges from this. This includes cases where the stability of synchronization can be induced even if both layers would have individually induced unstable synchrony, an effect genuinely arising from the true multilayer structure of the interactions among the units in the network.

Degree correlations in directed scale-free networks

Scale-free networks, in which the distribution of the degrees obeys a power-law, are ubiquitous in the study of complex systems. One basic network property that relates to the structure of the links found is the degree assortativity, which is a measure of the correlation between the degrees of the nodes at the end of the links. Degree correlations are known to affect both the structure of a network and the dynamics of the processes supported thereon, including the resilience to damage, the spread of information and epidemics, and the efficiency of defence mechanisms. Nonetheless, while many studies focus on undirected scale-free networks, the interactions in real-world systems often have a directionality. Here, we investigate the dependence of the degree correlations on the power-law exponents in directed scale-free networks. To perform our study, we consider the problem of building directed networks with a prescribed degree distribution, providing a method for proper generation of power-law-distributed directed degree sequences. Applying this new method, we perform extensive numerical simulations, generating ensembles of directed scale-free networks with exponents between 2 and 3, and measuring ensemble averages of the Pearson correlation coefficients. Our results show that scale-free networks are on average uncorrelated across directed links for three of the four possible degree-degree correlations, namely in-degree to in-degree, in-degree to out-degree, and out-degree to out-degree. However, they exhibit anticorrelation between the number of outgoing connections and the number of incoming ones. The findings are consistent with an entropic origin for the observed disassortativity in biological and technological networks.