General formulation of Luria-Delbrück distribution of the number of mutants

Coupling Cell Size Regulation and Proliferation Dynamics of C. glutamicum Reveals Cell Division Based on Surface Area

Single cells actively coordinate growth and division to regulate their size, yet how this size homeostasis at the single-cell level propagates over multiple generations to impact clonal expansion remains fundamentally unexplored. Classical timer models for cell proliferation (where the duration of the cell cycle is an independent variable) predict that the stochastic variation in colony size will increase monotonically over time. In stark contrast, implementing size control according to adder strategy (where on average a fixed size added from cell birth to division) leads to colony size variations that eventually decay to zero. While these results assume a fixed size of the colony-initiating progenitor cell, further analysis reveals that the magnitude of the intercolony variation in population number is sensitive to heterogeneity in the initial cell size. We validate these predictions by tracking the growth of isogenic microcolonies of Corynebacterium glutamicum in microfluidic chambers. Approximating their cell shape to a capsule, we observe that the degree of random variability in cell size is different depending on whether the cell size is quantified as per length, surface area, or volume, but size control remains an adder regardless of these size metrics. A comparison of the observed variability in the colony population with the predictions suggests that proliferation matches better with a cell division based on the cell surface. In summary, our integrated mathematical-experimental approach bridges the paradigms of single-cell size regulation and clonal expansion at the population levels. This innovative approach provides elucidation of the mechanisms of size homeostasis from the stochastic dynamics of colony size for rod-shaped microbes.

Estimating mutation rates in a Markov branching process using approximate Bayesian computation

Estimating microbial mutation rates is an essential task in evolutionary biology, with wide range applications in related fields such as virology, epidemiology, clinic and public health, and antibiotic research. Significant progress has been made on this research since 1943 when Luria-Delbrück fluctuation analysis was first introduced. However, existing estimators of mutation rates are heavily reliant on model assumptions in fluctuation analysis, and become less applicable to real microbial experiments which deviate from the model assumptions. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to model fluctuation experimental data by a two-type Markov branching process (MBP) and use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the mutation probability parameters. Such an ABC-based mutation rate estimator is based on intensive simulations from the mutation process, thereby taking advantage of modern computing power. Most importantly, its likelihood-free feature allows more complex and realistic setups of the mutation process, especially when the distribution of the number of mutants cannot be easily derived. To further improve computation efficiency, we use a Gaussian process surrogate to substitute the simulator in the ABC algorithm, and call the resulting estimator GPS-ABC. Simulation studies show that, when used to estimate constant mutation rate in MBP, ABC-based estimators generally outperform traditional moment or likelihood-based estimators. When mutations occur in two stages, i.e., in MBP with a piece-wise constant mutation rate function, traditional mutation rate estimators become not applicable, yet GPS-ABC still achieves reasonable estimates. Finally, the proposed GPS-ABC estimator is used to analyze real fluctuation experimental datasets for studying drug resistance.

Probing transient memory of cellular states using single-cell lineages

The inherent stochasticity in the gene product levels can drive single cells within an isoclonal population to different phenotypic states. The dynamic nature of this intercellular variation, where individual cells can transition between different states over time, makes it a particularly hard phenomenon to characterize. We reviewed recent progress in leveraging the classical Luria-Delbrück experiment to infer the transient heritability of the cellular states. Similar to the original experiment, individual cells were first grown into cell colonies, and then, the fraction of cells residing in different states was assayed for each colony. We discuss modeling approaches for capturing dynamic state transitions in a growing cell population and highlight formulas that identify the kinetics of state switching from the extent of colony-to-colony fluctuations. The utility of this method in identifying multi-generational memory of the both expression and phenotypic states is illustrated across diverse biological systems from cancer drug resistance, reactivation of human viruses, and cellular immune responses. In summary, this fluctuation-based methodology provides a powerful approach for elucidating cell-state transitions from a single time point measurement, which is particularly relevant in situations where measurements lead to cell death (as in single-cell RNA-seq or drug treatment) or cause an irreversible change in cell physiology.

Fluctuation analysis on mutation models with birth-date dependence

The classic Luria-Delbrück model can be interpreted as a Poisson compound (number of mutations) of exponential mixtures (developing time of mutant clones) of geometric distributions (size of a clone in a given time). This "three-ingredients" approach is generalized in this paper to the case where the split instant distributions of cells are not i.i.d. : the lifetime of each cell is assumed to depend on its birth date. This model takes also into account cell deaths and non-exponentially distributed lifetimes. Previous results on the convergence of the distribution of mutant counts are recovered. The particular case where the instantaneous division rates of normal and mutant cells are proportional is studied. The classic Luria-Delbrück and Haldane models are recovered. Probability computations and simulation algorithms are provided. Robust estimation methods developed for the classic mutation models are adapted to the new model: their properties of consistency and asymptotic normality remain true; their asymptotic variances are computed. Finally, the estimation biases induced by considering classic mutation models instead of an inhomogeneous model are studied with simulation experiments.

Time Inhomogeneous Mutation Models with Birth Date Dependence

The classic Luria-Delbrück model for fluctuation analysis is extended to the case where the split instant distributions of cells are not i.i.d.: the lifetime of each cell is assumed to depend on its birth date. This model takes also into account cell deaths and non-exponentially distributed lifetimes. In particular, it is possible to consider subprobability distributions and to model non-exponential growth. The extended model leads to a family of probability distributions which depend on the expected number of mutations, the death probability of mutant cells, and the split instant distributions of normal and mutant cells. This is deduced from the Bellman-Harris integral equation, written for the birth date inhomogeneous case. A new theorem of convergence for the final mutant counts is proved, using an analytic method. Particular examples like the Haldane model or the case where hazard functions of the split-instant distributions are proportional are studied. The Luria-Delbrück distribution with cell deaths is recovered. A computation algorithm for the probabilities is provided.

Universal Asymptotic Clone Size Distribution for General Population Growth

Deterministically growing (wild-type) populations which seed stochastically developing mutant clones have found an expanding number of applications from microbial populations to cancer. The special case of exponential wild-type population growth, usually termed the Luria–Delbrück or Lea–Coulson model, is often assumed but seldom realistic. In this article, we generalise this model to different types of wild-type population growth, with mutants evolving as a birth–death branching process. Our focus is on the size distribution of clones—that is the number of progeny of a founder mutant—which can be mapped to the total number of mutants. Exact expressions are derived for exponential, power-law and logistic population growth. Additionally, for a large class of population growth, we prove that the long-time limit of the clone size distribution has a general two-parameter form, whose tail decays as a power-law. Considering metastases in cancer as the mutant clones, upon analysing a data-set of their size distribution, we indeed find that a power-law tail is more likely than an exponential one.