Filling the gaps: A robust description of adhesive birth-death-movement processes

Predicting population extinction in lattice-based birth-death-movement models

The question of whether a population will persist or go extinct is of key interest throughout ecology and biology. Various mathematical techniques allow us to generate knowledge regarding individual behaviour, which can be analysed to obtain predictions about the ultimate survival or extinction of the population. A common model employed to describe population dynamics is the lattice-based random walk model with crowding (exclusion). This model can incorporate behaviour such as birth, death and movement, while including natural phenomena such as finite size effects. Performing sufficiently many realizations of the random walk model to extract representative population behaviour is computationally intensive. Therefore, continuum approximations of random walk models are routinely employed. However, standard continuum approximations are notoriously incapable of making accurate predictions about population extinction. Here, we develop a new continuum approximation, the state-space diffusion approximation, which explicitly accounts for population extinction. Predictions from our approximation faithfully capture the behaviour in the random walk model, and provides additional information compared to standard approximations. We examine the influence of the number of lattice sites and initial number of individuals on the long-term population behaviour, and demonstrate the reduction in computation time between the random walk model and our approximation.

Co-operation, Competition and Crowding: A Discrete Framework Linking Allee Kinetics, Nonlinear Diffusion, Shocks and Sharp-Fronted Travelling Waves

Invasion processes are ubiquitous throughout cell biology and ecology. During invasion, individuals can become isolated from the bulk population and behave differently. We present a discrete, exclusion-based description of the birth, death and movement of individuals. The model distinguishes between individuals that are part of, or are isolated from, the bulk population by imposing different rates of birth, death and movement. This enables the simulation of various co-operative or competitive mechanisms, where there is either a positive or negative benefit associated with being part of the bulk population, respectively. The mean-field approximation of the discrete process gives rise to 22 different classes of partial differential equation, which can include Allee kinetics and nonlinear diffusion. Here we examine the ability of each class of partial differential equation to support travelling wave solutions and interpret the long time behaviour in terms of the individual-level parameters. For the first time we show that the strong Allee effect and nonlinear diffusion can result in shock-fronted travelling waves. We also demonstrate how differences in group and individual motility rates can influence the persistence of a population and provide conditions for the successful invasion of a population.