Learning moment closure in reaction-diffusion systems with spatial dynamic Boltzmann distributions

A Gaussian-process approximation to a spatial SIR process using moment closures and emulators

The dynamics that govern disease spread are hard to model because infections are functions of both the underlying pathogen as well as human or animal behavior. This challenge is increased when modeling how diseases spread between different spatial locations. Many proposed spatial epidemiological models require trade-offs to fit, either by abstracting away theoretical spread dynamics, fitting a deterministic model, or by requiring large computational resources for many simulations. We propose an approach that approximates the complex spatial spread dynamics with a Gaussian process. We first propose a flexible spatial extension to the well-known SIR stochastic process, and then we derive a moment-closure approximation to this stochastic process. This moment-closure approximation yields ordinary differential equations for the evolution of the means and covariances of the susceptibles and infectious through time. Because these ODEs are a bottleneck to fitting our model by MCMC, we approximate them using a low-rank emulator. This approximation serves as the basis for our hierarchical model for noisy, underreported counts of new infections by spatial location and time. We demonstrate using our model to conduct inference on simulated infections from the underlying, true spatial SIR jump process. We then apply our method to model counts of new Zika infections in Brazil from late 2015 through early 2016.

Machine learning dynamic correlation in chemical kinetics

Lattice models are a useful tool to simulate the kinetics of surface reactions. Since it is expensive to propagate the probabilities of the entire lattice configurations, it is practical to consider the occupation probabilities of a typical site or a cluster of sites instead. This amounts to a moment closure approximation of the chemical master equation. Unfortunately, simple closures, such as the mean-field and the pair approximation (PA), exhibit weaknesses in systems with significant long-range correlation. In this paper, we show that machine learning (ML) can be used to construct accurate moment closures in chemical kinetics using the lattice Lotka-Volterra model as a model system. We trained feedforward neural networks on kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) results at select values of rate constants and initial conditions. Given the same level of input as PA, the ML moment closure (MLMC) gave accurate predictions of the instantaneous three-site occupation probabilities. Solving the kinetic equations in conjunction with MLMC gave drastic improvements in the simulated dynamics and descriptions of the dynamical regimes throughout the parameter space. In this way, MLMC is a promising tool to interpolate KMC simulations or construct pretrained closures that would enable researchers to extract useful insight at a fraction of the computational cost.