Correlation between cosmic rays and ozone depletion

Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970

This review identifies a critical problem in the fundamental physics of current climate models. The large greenhouse effect of rising CO2 assumed in climate models is assessed by six key observations from ground- and satellite-based measurements. This assessment is enhanced by statistical analyses and model calculations of global or regional mean surface temperature changes by conventional climate models and by a conceptual quantum physical model of global warming due to halogen-containing greenhouse gases (halo-GHGs). The postulated large radiative forcing of CO2 in conventional climate models does not agree with satellite observations. Satellite-observed warming pattern resembles closely the atmospheric distribution of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). This review helps understand recent remarkable observations of reversals from cooling to warming in the lower stratosphere over most continents and in the upper stratosphere at high latitudes, surface warming cessations in the Antarctic, North America, UK, and Northern-Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, and the stabilization in NH or North America snow cover, since the turn of the century. The complementary observation of surface temperature changes in 3 representative regions (Central England, the Antarctic, and the Arctic) sheds new light on the primary mechanism of global warming. These observations agree well with not CO2-based climate models but the CFC-warming quantum physical model. The latter offers parameter-free analytical calculations of surface temperature changes, exhibiting remarkable agreement with observations. These observations overwhelmingly support an emerging picture that halo-GHGs made the dominant contribution to global warming in the late 20th century and that a gradual reversal in warming has occurred since ~2005 due to the phasing out of halo-GHGs. Advances and insights from this review may help humans make rational policies to reverse the past warming and maintain a healthy economy and ecosystem.

Formulation of the cosmic ray-driven electron-induced reaction mechanism for quantitative understanding of global ozone depletion

This paper formulates the cosmic ray-driven electron-induced reaction as a universal mechanism to provide a quantitative understanding of global ozone depletion. Based on a proposed electrostatic bonding mechanism for charge-induced adsorption of molecules on surfaces and on the measured dissociative electron transfer (DET) cross sections of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) adsorbed on ice, an analytical equation is derived to give atmospheric chlorine atom concentration: [Formula: see text] where Φe is the prehydrated electron (epre-) flux produced by cosmic ray ionization on atmospheric particle surfaces, [Formula: see text] is the surface coverage of an ODS, and ki is the ODS's effective DET coefficient that is the product of the DET cross section, the lifetimes of surface-trapped epre- and Cl-, and the particle surface area density. With concentrations of ODSs as the sole variable, our calculated results of time-series ozone depletion rates in global regions in the 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s show generally good agreement with observations, particularly with ground-based ozonesonde data and satellite-measured data over Antarctica and with satellite data in a narrow altitude band at 13 to 20 km of the tropics. Good agreements with satellite data in the Arctic and midlatitudes are also found. A previously unreported effect of denitrification on ozone loss is found and expressed quantitatively. But this equation overestimates tropospheric ozone loss at northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, likely due to increased ozone production by the halogen chemistry in polluted regions. The results render confidence in applying the equation to achieve a quantitative understanding of global ozone depletion.

Major Contribution of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases to Global Surface Temperature Change

This paper aims to better understand why there was a global warming pause in 2000–2015 and why the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen again in recent years. We present and statistically analyze substantial time-series observed datasets of global lower-stratospheric temperature (GLST), troposphere–stratosphere temperature climatology, global land surface air temperature, GMST, sea ice extent (SIE) and snow cover extent (SCE), combined with modeled calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs. The observed and analyzed results show that GLST/SCE has stabilized since the mid-1990s with no significant change over the past two and a half decades. Upper-stratospheric warming at high latitudes has been observed and GMST or global land surface air temperature has reached a plateau since the mid-2000s with the removal of natural effects. In marked contrast, continued drastic warmings at the coasts of polar regions (particularly Russia and Alaska) are observed and well explained by the sea-ice-loss warming amplification mechanism. The calculated GMSTs by the parameter-free quantum-physics warming model of halogenated greenhouse gases (GHGs) show excellent agreement with the observed GMSTs after the natural El Niño southern oscillation and volcanic effects are removed. These results have provided strong evidence for the dominant warming mechanism of anthropogenic halogenated GHGs. The results also call for closer scrutiny of the assumptions made in current climate models.

Observation of large and all-season ozone losses over the tropics

This paper reveals a large and all-season ozone hole in the lower stratosphere over the tropics (30°N–30°S) existing since the 1980s, where an O3 hole is defined as an area of O3 loss larger than 25% compared with the undisturbed atmosphere. The depth of this tropical O3 hole is comparable to that of the well-known springtime Antarctic O3 hole, whereas its area is about seven times that of the latter. Similar to the Antarctic O3 hole, approximately 80% of the normal O3 value is depleted at the center of the tropical O3 hole. The results strongly indicate that both Antarctic and tropical O3 holes must arise from an identical physical mechanism, for which the cosmic-ray-driven electron reaction model shows good agreement with observations. The whole-year large tropical O3 hole could cause a great global concern as it can lead to increases in ground-level ultraviolet radiation and affect 50% of the Earth’s surface area, which is home to approximately 50% of the world’s population. Moreover, the presence of the tropical and polar O3 holes is equivalent to the formation of three “temperature holes” observed in the stratosphere. These findings will have significances in understanding planetary physics, ozone depletion, climate change, and human health.

Fingerprints of the cosmic ray driven mechanism of the ozone hole

There is long research interest in electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules. It has been two decades since the cosmic-ray (CR) driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism for the ozone hole formation was proposed. The derived CRE equation with the stratospheric equivalent chlorine level and CR intensity as the only two variables has well reproduced the observed data of stratospheric O3 and temperatures over the past 40 years. The CRE predictions of 11-year cyclic variations of the Antarctic O3 hole and associated stratospheric cooling have also been well confirmed. Measured altitude profiles of the ozone and temperatures in Antarctic ozone holes provide convincing fingerprints of the CRE mechanism. A quantitative estimate indicates that the CRE-produced Cl atoms could completely deplete or even overkill the ozone in the CR-peak polar stratospheric region, consistent with the observed altitude profiles of the severest Antarctic ozone holes. After removing the natural CR effect, the hidden recovery in the Antarctic O3 hole since ∼1995 is clearly discovered, while the recovery of O3 loss at mid-latitudes is being delayed by ≥10 years. These results have provided strong evidence of the CRE mechanism. If the CR intensity keeps the current rising trend, the Antarctic O3 hole will return to the 1980 level by ∼2060, while the returning of the O3 layer at mid-latitudes to the 1980 level will largely be delayed or will not even occur by the end of this century. The results strongly indicate that the CRE mechanism must be considered as a key factor in evaluating the O3 hole.

Theoretical Insights into the Interaction Mechanisms between Nitric Acid and Nitrous Oxide Initiated by an Excess Electron

Nitric acid (HNO₃) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) play an important role in the atmospheric chemistry in regulating the global environment and climate changes. In this study, the interaction mechanisms between them have been systematically investigated before and after the electron capture employing the density functional theory in combination with the AIM, NBO, and ab initio molecular dynamics calculations. It was found that HNO₃ and N₂O can form transient complexes through intermolecular H-bonds. HNNO, OH, and NO₂ free radicals can be produced after the electron capture of the formed complexes, providing an alternative source of these radicals in the atmosphere. The present results not only can provide new insights into the transformation of the HNO₃ and N₂O atmospheric species but also can enable us to better understand the potential role of the free electron in the atmosphere.

Theoretical Insights into the Electron Capture Behavior of H₂SO₄···N₂O Complex: A DFT and Molecular Dynamics Study

Both sulfuric acid (H₂SO₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) play a central role in the atmospheric chemistry in regulating the global environment and climate changes. In this study, the interaction behavior between H₂SO₄ and N₂O before and after electron capture has been explored using the density functional theory (DFT) method as well as molecular dynamics simulation. The intermolecular interactions have been characterized by atoms in molecules (AIM), natural bond orbital (NBO), and reduced density gradient (RDG) analyses, respectively. It was found that H₂SO₄ and N₂O can form two transient molecular complexes via intermolecular H-bonds within a certain timescale. However, two molecular complexes can be transformed into OH radical, N₂, and HSO₄⁻ species upon electron capture, providing an alternative formation source of OH radical in the atmosphere. Expectedly, the present findings not only can provide new insights into the transformation behavior of H₂SO₄ and N₂O, but also can enable us to better understand the potential role of the free electron in driving the proceeding of the relevant reactions in the atmosphere.

Does the "reef structure" at the ozone transition state towards the dissociation exist? New insight from calculations and ultrasensitive spectroscopy experiments

Since the discovery of anomalies in ozone isotope enrichment, several fundamental issues in the dynamics linked to the shape of the potential energy surface in the transition state region have been raised. The role of the reeflike structure on the minimum energy path is an intricate question previously discussed in the context of chemical experiments. In this Letter, we bring strong arguments in favor of the absence of a submerged barrier from ultrasensitive laser spectroscopy experiments combined with accurate predictions of highly excited vibrations up to nearly 95% of the dissociation threshold.

Theoretical studies on the electron capture properties of the H2SO4...HOO˙ complex and its implications as an alternative source of HOOH

To better understand the potential role of sulfuric acid aerosols in the atmosphere, the electron capture properties of the H(2)SO(4)...HOO˙ complex have been systematically investigated by employing the MP2 and B3LYP methods in combination with the atoms in molecules (AIM) theory, energy decomposition analysis (EDA), and ab initio molecular dynamics. It was found that the electron capture process is a favorable reaction thermodynamically and kinetically. The excess electron can be captured by the HOO˙ fragment initially, and then the proton of the H(2)SO(4) fragment associated with the intermolecular H-bonds is transferred to the HOO˙ fragment without any activation barriers, resulting in the formation of the HOOH species directly. Therefore, the electron capture process of the H(2)SO(4)...HOO˙ complex provides an alternative source of HOOH in the atmosphere. The nature of the coupling interactions in the electron capture products are clarified, and the most stable anionic complex is also determined. Additionally, the influences of the adjacent water molecules on the electron capture properties are investigated, as well as the distinct IR features of the most stable electron capture product.

CCl(4) dissociation on the ice I(h) surface: an excess electron mediated process

Dissociation of chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere is a heterogeneous process that takes place mainly on the surface of ice particles. Recently an enhancement of the dissociation rate due to excess electrons has been shown theoretically and correspondingly measured experimentally. Our density functional theory calculations show that CCl(4) dissociates due to an excess electron with an energy gain of 0.8 eV on the ice surface as opposed to in the gas phase. Through the use of ab initio molecular dynamics, an atomistic pathway for this dissociation has been elucidated, this pathway shows the capture of Cl(-) by the ice surface through a partial solvation mechanism, in agreement with recent experimental findings.

Influenza pandemics, solar activity cycles, and vitamin D

There is historic evidence that influenza pandemics are associated with solar activity cycles (the Schwabe-cycle of about 11-years periodicity). The hypothesis is presented and developed that influenza pandemics are associated with solar control of vitamin D levels in humans which waxes and wanes in concert with solar cycle dependent ultraviolet radiation. It is proposed that this solar cycle dependence arises both directly from cyclic control of the amount of ultraviolet radiation as well as indirectly through cyclic control of atmospheric circulation and dynamics.

Does cosmic-ray-induced heterogeneous chemistry influence stratospheric polar ozone loss?

Cosmic-ray (CR) -induced heterogeneous reactions of halogenated species have been suggested to play the dominant role in causing the Antarctic ozone hole. However, measurements of total ozone in Antarctica do not show a compact and significant correlation with CR activity. Further, a substantial CR-induced heterogeneous loss of chlorofluorocarbons is incompatible with multiyear satellite observations of N2O and CFC-12. Thus, CR-induced heterogeneous reactions cannot be considered as an alternative mechanism causing the Antarctic ozone hole.