Systematic Uncertainty of Standard Sirens from the Viewing Angle of Binary Neutron Star Inspirals

Mitigating the Counterpart Selection Effect for Standard Sirens

The disagreement in the Hubble constant measured by different cosmological probes highlights the need for a better understanding of the observations or new physics. The standard siren method, a novel approach using gravitational-wave observations to determine the distance to binary mergers, has great potential to provide an independent measurement of the Hubble constant and shed light on the tension in the next few years. To realize this goal, we must thoroughly understand the sources of potential systematic bias of standard sirens. Among the known sources of systematic uncertainties, selection effects originating from electromagnetic counterpart observations of gravitational-wave sources may dominate the measurements with percent-level bias and no method to mitigate this effect is currently established. In this Letter, we develop a new formalism to mitigate the counterpart selection effect. We show that our formalism can reduce the systematic uncertainty of standard siren Hubble constant measurement to less than the statistical uncertainty with a simulated population of 200 observations (≲1%) for a realistic electromagnetic emission model. We conclude with how to apply our formalism to different electromagnetic emissions and observing scenarios.

Multi-Messenger Constraints on the Hubble Constant Through Combination of Gravitational Waves, Gamma-Ray Bursts and Kilonovae from Neutron Star Mergers

The simultaneous detection of gravitational waves and light from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 led to independent measurements of distance and redshift, providing a direct estimate of the Hubble constant H0 that does not rely on a cosmic distance ladder, nor assumes a specific cosmological model. By using gravitational waves as “standard sirens”, this approach holds promise to arbitrate the existing tension between the H0 value inferred from the cosmic microwave background and those obtained from local measurements. However, the known degeneracy in the gravitational-wave analysis between distance and inclination of the source led to a H0 value from GW170817 that was not precise enough to resolve the existing tension. In this review, we summarize recent works exploiting the viewing-angle dependence of the electromagnetic signal, namely the associated short gamma-ray burst and kilonova, to constrain the system inclination and improve on H0. We outline the key ingredients of the different methods, summarize the results obtained in the aftermath of GW170817 and discuss the possible systematics introduced by each of these methods.

Prospects for Measuring the Hubble Constant with Neutron-Star-Black-Hole Mergers

Gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) observations of neutron-star-black-hole (NSBH) mergers can provide precise local measurements of the Hubble constant (H_{0}), ideal for resolving the current H_{0} tension. We perform end-to-end analyses of realistic populations of simulated NSBHs, incorporating both GW and EM selection for the first time. We show that NSBHs could achieve unbiased 1.5%-2.4% precision H_{0} estimates by 2030. The achievable precision is strongly affected by the details of spin precession and tidal disruption, highlighting the need for improved modeling of NSBH mergers.