Technology forecasting (TF) and technology assessment (TA) methodologies: a conceptual review

Quantitative Technology Forecasting: A Review of Trend Extrapolation Methods

Quantitative technology forecasting uses quantitative methods to understand and project technological changes. It is a broad field encompassing many different techniques and has been applied to a vast range of technologies. A widely used approach in this field is trend extrapolation. Based on the literature available to us, there has been little or no attempt made to systematically review the empirical evidence on quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. This study attempts to close this gap by conducting a systematic review of the technology forecasting literature addressing the application of quantitative trend extrapolation techniques. We identified 25 studies relevant to the objective of this research and classified the techniques used in the studies into different categories, among which the growth curves and time series methods were shown to remain popular over the past decade while the newer methods, such as machine learning-based hybrid models, have emerged in recent years. As more effort and evidence are needed to determine if hybrid models are superior to traditional methods, we expect a growing trend in the development and application of hybrid models to technology forecasting.

The social impact of cultivated and plant-based meats as radical innovations in the food chain: Views from Brazil, the United States and Europe

Cultivated and plant-based meats have been recognized as radical innovations that may revolutionize food production worldwide. Despite potentially being more sustainable than conventional meat, little is known about the consequences these innovations can bring to society. To help to clarify this topic, we studied the social impacts that cultivated and plant-based meats may bring to Brazil, the United States and Europe. Based on the perspective of 136 experts, our results are divided into market expectations, consumer access, consumer acceptance, impacts on farms, and business opportunities along the new chains. Experts generally predicted an optimistic picture of the social effects with several opportunities as alternative meats become available. However, the consequences for animal farmers seemed worrying in the experts' views. Overall, the opinion of Brazilian and American experts seemed more optimistic than that of Europeans. Our findings may be helpful for practitioners and people involved in rural policy interested in better guiding this transition process in the food production chain.

A Review of Technological Forecasting from the Perspective of Complex Systems

Technology forecasting (TF) is an important way to address technological innovation in fast-changing market environments and enhance the competitiveness of organizations in dynamic and complex environments. However, few studies have investigated the complex process problem of how to select the most appropriate forecasts for organizational characteristics. This paper attempts to fill this research gap by reviewing the TF literature based on a complex systems perspective. We first identify four contexts (technology opportunity identification, technology assessment, technology trend and evolutionary analysis, and others) involved in the systems of TF to indicate the research boundary of the system. Secondly, the four types of agents (field of analysis, object of analysis, data source, and approach) are explored to reveal the basic elements of the systems. Finally, the visualization of the interaction between multiple agents in full context and specific contexts is realized in the form of a network. The interaction relationship network illustrates how the subjects coordinate and cooperate to realize the TF context. Accordingly, we illustrate suggest five trends for future research: (1) refinement of the context; (2) optimization and expansion of the analysis field; (3) extension of the analysis object; (4) convergence and diversification of the data source; and (5) combination and optimization of the approach.

Roadmapping as a Driver for Knowledge Creation: A Proposal for Improving Sustainable Practices in the Coffee Supply Chain from Chiapas, Mexico, Using Emerging Technologies

Technologies are essential for productive sectors to increase competitiveness and improve sustainable development. However, the technology benefits present a great delay in adoption in agricultural sectors, due to discrepancies between scientific research and local needs. This article presents a study for improving sustainability practices in the coffee supply chain, using emerging technologies, of two localities in the Frailesca region from Chiapas, Mexico, based on the current situation, expectations and actions expressed by 165 coffee producers and 12 representatives of two coffee producers’ organizations. Based on Mentzer theoretical support, the technology roadmaps, knowledge management and digital compass were used to draw coffee supply chain processes to identify concrete actions and explore technologies. The results show that the technological route must be focused on renewing and improving coffee quality, getting quality certifications and access to specialized markets. Digital quality management and advanced statistical process control seem to be the appropriate emerging technologies for enhancing the acquisition of resistant varieties, proper pest management, improvement in the collection of coffee beans, the right time and way to plant a coffee plant, soil analysis and for the management of weeds and water conservation and harvesting as sustainable practices in this region. In addition, statistical correlation showed that digital technologies can be better adopted, on average, by producers with 4–6 family members, aged between 40–44 years and without additional crops. The findings propose sustainable practices linked with emerging technologies, based on a technology roadmap and knowledge management methodologies for this region.

An innovation management assessment framework

Purpose

This paper proposes an integrated approach for assessing innovation management practices using an innovation management assessment framework, with the application of the innovation management assessment framework at the incubation and firm level.

Design/methodology/approach

Innovation management assessment framework is developed, based on the literature review. An innovation management assessment framework toolkit for training innovation practitioners is proposed as the basis for the framework implementation in the industry. The main approach is to make close alignment of the design for lean six sigma phases within broader innovation and stage-gate model in the innovation management assessment framework.

Findings

The operationalization of the innovation management assessment framework is enabled and supported by an assessment framework and a toolkit for managing innovation.

Practical implications

A roadmap for innovation management and assessment of performance at incubatee/firm level.

Social implications

It provides a tool for developing innovative products and services for incubatees in start-ups, thus fueling the economy. It also has applications for ongoing established businesses.

Originality/value

Innovation of new business development can be made through a well-designed and implemented innovation programme that is aligned with stage-gate and design for lean six sigma phases through the innovation management assessment framework.