Hospital capacity management based on the queueing theory

The False Economy of Seeking to Eliminate Delayed Transfers of Care: Some Lessons from Queueing Theory

BACKGROUND

It is a stated ambition of many healthcare systems to eliminate delayed transfers of care (DTOCs) between acute and step-down community services.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to demonstrate how, counter to intuition, pursual of such a policy is likely to be uneconomical, as it would require large amounts of community capacity to accommodate even the rarest of demand peaks, leaving much capacity unused for much of the time.

METHODS

Some standard results from queueing theory-a mathematical discipline for considering the dynamics of queues and queueing systems-are used to provide a model of patient flow from the acute to community setting. While queueing models have a track record of application in healthcare, they have not before been used to address this question.

RESULTS

Results show that 'eliminating' DTOCs is a false economy: the additional community costs required are greater than the possible acute cost saving. While a substantial proportion of DTOCs can be attributed to inefficient use of resources, the remainder can be considered economically essential to ensuring cost-efficient service operation. For England's National Health Service (NHS), our modelling estimates annual cost savings of £117m if DTOCs are reduced to the 12% of current levels that can be regarded as economically essential.

CONCLUSION

This study discourages the use of 'zero DTOC' targets and instead supports an assessment based on the specific characteristics of the healthcare system considered.

Impact assessment of emergency care units on hospitalizations for respiratory system diseases in Brazil

Emergency Care Units (UPAs) are part of a national health policy implemented by the Brazilian Government. UPAs are fixed prehospital components of the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS), whose purpose is to provide resolutive emergency care to patients suffering from acute clinical conditions, and to perform the first care in cases of surgical nature. According to the Ministry of Economy, 750 units are operational throughout the country since 2008, and 332 are under construction. Being a public policy in expansion, it is imperative to assess the impact of such units as part of SUS. However, we found few studies that assessed UPAs' impact, which have examined their specific impact on mortality rates. In our research, we aimed to evaluate the impact of UPAs on hospitalization rates for diseases of the respiratory system. To measure the impact, we used a strategy of Machine Learning through the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) algorithm. The results point to a decrease in the hospitalization rates by respiratory diseases due to Emergency Care Units. Therefore, these units generate a benefit for the Brazilian health system, being an important element for the care of patients with respiratory diseases.

Creating Coherence-Based Nurse Planning in the Perinatology Care System

The combination of increasing demand and a shortage of nurses puts pressure on hospital care systems to use their current volume of resources more efficiently and effectively. This study focused on gaining insight into how nurses can be assigned to units in a perinatology care system to balance patient demand with the available nurses. Discrete event simulation was used to evaluate the what-if analysis of nurse flexibility strategies and care system configurations from a case study of the Perinatology Care System at Radboud University Medical Center in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Decisions to exercise nurse flexibility strategies to solve supply–demand mismatches were made by considering the entire patient care trajectory perspective, as they necessitate a coherence perspective (i.e., taking the interdependency between departments into account). The study results showed that in the current care system configuration, where care is delivered in six independent units, implementing a nurse flexibility strategy based on skill requirements was the best solution, averaging two fewer under-/overstaffed nurses per shift in the care system. However, exercising flexibility below or above a certain limit did not substantially improve the performance of the system. To meet the actual demand in the studied setting (70 beds), the ideal range of flexibility was between 7% and 20% of scheduled nurses per shift. When the care system was configured differently (i.e., into two large departments or pooling units into one large department), supply–demand mismatches were also minimized without having to implement any of the three nurse flexibility strategies mentioned in this study. These results provide insights into the possible solutions that can be implemented to deal with nurse shortages, given that these shortages could potentially worsen in the coming years.

An Overview of Hospital Capacity Planning and Optimisation

Health care is uncertain, dynamic, and fast growing. With digital technologies set to revolutionise the industry, hospital capacity optimisation and planning have never been more relevant. The purposes of this article are threefold. The first is to identify the current state of the art, to summarise/analyse the key achievements, and to identify gaps in the body of research. The second is to synthesise and evaluate that literature to create a holistic framework for understanding hospital capacity planning and optimisation, in terms of physical elements, process, and governance. Third, avenues for future research are sought to inform researchers and practitioners where they should best concentrate their efforts. In conclusion, we find that prior research has typically focussed on individual parts, but the hospital is one body that is made up of many interdependent parts. It is also evident that past attempts considering entire hospitals fail to incorporate all the detail that is necessary to provide solutions that can be implemented in the real world, across strategic, tactical and operational planning horizons. A holistic approach is needed that includes ancillary services, equipment medicines, utilities, instrument trays, supply chain and inventory considerations.

A study on how to achieve flexibility in healthcare process: a simulation-based approach

Purpose

The paper aims to investigate the cardiology department’s operational system for improving flexibility by minimizing the patient waiting time and simultaneously maximizing the utilization of service capacity in an uncertain environment. This article also proposes a policy framework that suggests a pool of additional resources and inter-firm collaboration can boost healthcare service delivery excellence.

Design/methodology/approach

A discrete event simulation (DES) approach is followed for modeling patient flow and determining the service capacity to respond to demand variability and uncertainty. The model's outputs are used to minimize patient waiting time, maximize the utilization of the resources and match the service capacity with the patient demand.

Findings

This research has tested two hypotheses and proved that an increase in waiting time decimates the throughput rate, and additional resources deployment in bottleneck activity positively impacts the throughput rate. The simulated scenarios prescribe an enhanced service capacity with quality care and further contribute to operational performance in reduced waiting time and cost. The results indicate that flexibility reduces the patient waiting time and maximizes the throughput rate.

Practical implications

The study guides the healthcare policymakers to develop flexible competence and facilitate service mechanisms that are adaptive and robust while operating under a volatile environment. The article contributes to the healthcare literature that conjoins flexibility through simulation and resource utilization.

Originality/value

This research is based on real-life primary data collected from healthcare providers. This study adds value to the healthcare systems to adopt strategic decisions to build flexibility through resource allocation, sharing and coordinated care.

Queueing Problems in Emergency Departments: A Review of Practical Approaches and Research Methodologies

Problems related to patient scheduling and queueing in emergency departments are gaining increasing attention in theory, in the fields of operations research and emergency and healthcare services, and in practice. This paper aims to provide an extensive review of studies addressing queueing-related problems explicitly related to emergency departments. We have reviewed 229 articles and books spanning seven decades and have sought to organize the information they contain in a manner that is accessible and useful to researchers seeking to gain knowledge on specific aspects of such problems. We begin by presenting a historical overview of applications of queueing theory to healthcare-related problems. We subsequently elaborate on managerial approaches used to enhance efficiency in emergency departments. These approaches include bed management, fast-track, dynamic resource allocation, grouping/prioritization of patients, and triage approaches. Finally, we discuss scientific methodologies used to analyze and optimize these approaches: algorithms, priority models, queueing models, simulation, and statistical approaches.

Physician-Customized Strategies for Reducing Outpatient Waiting Time in South Korea Using Queueing Theory and Probabilistic Metamodels

The time a patient spends waiting to be seen by a healthcare professional is an important determinant of patient satisfaction in outpatient care. Hence, it is crucial to identify parameters that affect the waiting time and optimize it accordingly. First, statistical analysis was used to validate the effective parameters. However, no parameters were found to have significant effects with respect to the entire outpatient department or to each department. Therefore, we studied the improvement of patient waiting times by analyzing and optimizing effective parameters for each physician. Queueing theory was used to calculate the probability that patients would wait for more than 30 min for a consultation session. Using this result, we built metamodels for each physician, formulated an effective method to optimize the problem, and found a solution to minimize waiting time using a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). On average, we obtained a 30% decrease in the probability that patients would wait for a long period. This study shows the importance of customized improvement strategies for each physician.

Managing admission and discharge processes in intensive care units

The intensive care unit (ICU) is one of the most crucial and expensive resources in a health care system. While high fixed costs usually lead to tight capacities, shortages have severe consequences. Thus, various challenging issues exist: When should an ICU admit or reject arriving patients in general? Should ICUs always be able to admit critical patients or rather focus on high utilization? On an operational level, both admission control of arriving patients and demand-driven early discharge of currently residing patients are decision variables and should be considered simultaneously. This paper discusses the trade-off between medical and monetary goals when managing intensive care units by modeling the problem as a Markov decision process. Intuitive, myopic rule mimicking decision-making in practice is applied as a benchmark. In a numerical study based on real-world data, we demonstrate that the medical results deteriorate dramatically when focusing on monetary goals only, and vice versa. Using our model, we illustrate the trade-off along an efficiency frontier that accounts for all combinations of medical and monetary goals. Coming from a solution that optimizes monetary costs, a significant reduction of expected mortality can be achieved at little additional monetary cost.

Optimization of Markov Queuing Model in Hospital Bed Resource Allocation

Bed resources are the platform in which most medical and health resources in the hospital play a role and carry the core functions of the health service system. How to improve the efficiency of the use of bed resources through scientific management measures and methods and ultimately achieve the optimization of overall health resources is the focus of hospital management teams. This paper analyzes the previous research models of knowledge related to queuing theory in medical services. From the perspective of the hospital and the patient, several indicators such as the average total number of people, the utilization rate of bed resources, the patient stop rate, and the patient average waiting time are defined to measure the performance of the triage queue calling model, which makes the patient queue more reasonable. According to the actual task requirements of a hospital, a Markov queuing strategy based on Markov service is proposed. A mathematical queuing model is constructed, and the process of solving steady-state probability based on Markov theory is analyzed. Through the comparative analysis of simulation experiments, the advantages and disadvantages of the service Markov queuing model and the applicable scope are obtained. Based on the theory of the queuing method, a queuing network model of bed resource allocation is established in principle. Experimental results show that the queuing strategy of bed resource allocation based on Markov optimization effectively improves resource utilization and patient satisfaction and can well meet the individual needs of different patients. It does not only provide specific optimization measures for the object of empirical research but also provides a reference for the development of hospital bed resource allocation in theory.