Deep Learning-Based Long Term Mortality Prediction in the National Lung Screening Trial

Deep-Learning Model Prediction of Radiation Pneumonitis Using Pretreatment Chest Computed Tomography and Clinical Factors

Objectives: This study aimed to build a comprehensive deep-learning model for the prediction of radiation pneumonitis using chest computed tomography (CT), clinical, dosimetric, and laboratory data. Introduction: Radiation therapy is an effective tool for treating patients with lung cancer. Despite its effectiveness, the risk of radiation pneumonitis limits its application. Although several studies have demonstrated models to predict radiation pneumonitis, no reliable model has been developed yet. Herein, we developed prediction models using pretreatment chest CT and various clinical data to assess the likelihood of radiation pneumonitis in lung cancer patients. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed 3-dimensional (3D) lung volume data from chest CT scans and 27 features including dosimetric, clinical, and laboratory data from 548 patients who were treated at our institution between 2010 and 2021. We developed a neural network, named MergeNet, which processes lung 3D CT, clinical, dosimetric, and laboratory data. The MergeNet integrates a convolutional neural network with subsequent fully connected layers. A support vector machine (SVM) and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) model were also implemented for comparison. For comparison, the convolution-only neural network was implemented as well. Three-dimensional Resnet-10 network and 4-fold cross-validation were used. Results: Classification performance was quantified by using the area under the receiver operative characteristic curve (AUC) metrics. MergeNet showed the AUC of 0.689. SVM, LGBM, and convolution-only networks showed AUCs of 0.525, 0.541, and 0.550, respectively. Application of DeLong test to pairs of receiver operating characteristic curves respectively yielded P values of .001 for the MergeNet-SVM pair and 0.001 for the MergeNet-LGBM pair. Conclusion: The MergeNet model, which incorporates chest CT, clinical, dosimetric, and laboratory data, demonstrated superior performance compared to other models. However, since its prediction performance has not yet reached an efficient level for clinical application, further research is required. Contribution: This study showed that MergeNet may be an effective means to predict radiation pneumonitis. Various predictive factors can be used together for the radiation pneumonitis prediction task via the MergeNet.

A hybrid CNN-RNN approach for survival analysis in a Lung Cancer Screening study

In this study, we present a hybrid CNN-RNN approach to investigate long-term survival of subjects in a lung cancer screening study. Subjects who died of cardiovascular and respiratory causes were identified whereby the CNN model was used to capture imaging features in the CT scans and the RNN model was used to investigate time series and thus global information. To account for heterogeneity in patients' follow-up times, two different variants of LSTM models were evaluated, each incorporating different strategies to address irregularities in follow-up time. The models were trained on subjects who underwent cardiovascular and respiratory deaths and a control cohort matched to participant age, gender, and smoking history. The combined model can achieve an AUC of 0.76 which outperforms humans at cardiovascular mortality prediction. The corresponding F1 and Matthews Correlation Coefficient are 0.63 and 0.42 respectively. The generalisability of the model is further validated on an 'external' cohort. The same models were applied to survival analysis with the Cox Proportional Hazard model. It was demonstrated that incorporating the follow-up history can lead to improvement in survival prediction. The Cox neural network can achieve an IPCW C-index of 0.75 on the internal dataset and 0.69 on an external dataset. Delineating subjects at increased risk of cardiorespiratory mortality can alert clinicians to request further more detailed functional or imaging studies to improve the assessment of cardiorespiratory disease burden. Such strategies may uncover unsuspected and under-recognised pathologies thereby potentially reducing patient morbidity.