Modeling Framework for the Generation of Synthetic RR Series during Atrial Arrhythmias

Challenging the Limitations of Atrial Fibrillation Detection in the Presence of Other Cardiac Arrythmias

Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects millions of people worldwide and needs to be diagnosed in its early stage to provide proper treatment. However, the numerous wearable devices available today are not yet able to discriminate AF episodes from other cardiac arrhythmias and merely detect normal vs abnormal rhythms.In this study we investigated the performance of a traditional classifier - designed to distinguish AF and sinus rhythm (SR) using inter-beat intervals (IBI) - when confronted with other - non-AF - arrhythmias. This classifier was challenged with data of 37 patients wearing an optical heart rate monitor device during catheter ablation procedures. We first analyzed the classification performance of pure AF vs SR and then gradually introduced non-AF arrhythmias in the time windows used for classification.We obtained a high classification performance (accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of 0.979, 1.000 and 0.966) for purely AF and SR. In contrast, when increasing the maximal possible number of non-AF arrhythmias to 50%, the performance decreased to an accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of 0.886, 0.998 and 0.853. While sinus tachycardia led to false positives the classification was not impaired by the presence of extrasystoles, bigeminy, bradycardia, frequent ectopic beats or atrial flutter.Our study quantifies to what extent a traditional IBI-based classifier is not sufficient to distinguish AF from other arrhythmias. Future work should concentrate on acquiring datasets with a high diversity of arrhythmias and employing new classification features.

Modeling and Estimation of Temporal Episode Patterns in Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

The present study proposes a model-based, statistical approach to characterizing episode patterns in paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF). Thanks to the rapid advancement of noninvasive monitoring technology, the proposed approach should become increasingly relevant in clinical practice.

METHODS

History-dependent point process modeling is employed to characterize AF episode patterns, using a novel alternating, bivariate Hawkes self-exciting model. In addition, a modified version of a recently proposed statistical model to simulate AF progression throughout a lifetime is considered, involving non-Markovian rhythm switching and survival functions. For each model, the maximum likelihood estimator is derived and used to find the model parameters from observed data.

RESULTS

Using three databases with a total of 59 long-term ECG recordings, the goodness-of-fit analysis demonstrates that the proposed alternating, bivariate Hawkes model fits SR-to-AF transitions in 40 recordings and AF-to-SR transitions in 51; the corresponding numbers for the AF model with non-Markovian rhythm switching are 40 and 11, respectively. Moreover, the results indicate that the model parameters related to AF episode clustering, i.e., aggregation of temporal AF episodes, provide information complementary to the well-known clinical parameter AF burden.

CONCLUSION

Point process modeling provides a detailed characterization of the occurrence pattern of AF episodes that may improve the understanding of arrhythmia progression.