Artificial intelligence for risk analysis-A risk characterization perspective on advances, opportunities, and limitations

Artificial intelligence (AI) has seen numerous applications for risk analysis and provides ample opportunities for developing new and improved methods and models for this purpose. In the present article, we conceptualize the use of AI for risk analysis by framing it as an input-algorithm-output process and linking such a setup to three tasks in establishing a risk description: consequence characterization, uncertainty characterization, and knowledge management. We then give an overview of currently used concepts and methods for AI-based risk analysis and outline potential future uses by extrapolating beyond currently produced types of output. We end with a discussion of the limits of automation, both near-term limitations and a more fundamental question related to allowing AI to automatically prescribe risk management decisions. We conclude that there are opportunities for using AI for risk analysis to a greater extent than is commonly the case today; however, critical concerns about proper uncertainty representation and the need for risk-informed rather than risk-based decision-making also lead us to conclude that risk analysis and decision-making processes cannot be fully automated.

Uncertainty management with an autonomous approach to fuzzy set-covering facility location models

Facility location models have been studied in the literature for decades as an outstanding branch of supply chain planning. Set-covering facility location models are among the most commonly used approaches to establishing and running a distribution network. However, real-life brings uncertain and imprecise parameters that need to be reflected in the model systematically and computably to achieve more efficient and precise solutions. That’s why fuzzy set covering models have been introduced in the literature from various perspectives. This work aimed to handle real-life uncertainties in an unbiased and autonomous way and provide more precise solutions to fuzzy set-covering facility location models in real-life contexts. Therefore, we propose a novel approach, adopting the autonomous fuzzy methodology consisting of fuzzy trapezoidal set coverage to minimize the cost of establishing new facilities. This work’s main innovative achievements are that i) the set-covering facility location models were equipped with autonomous uncertainty management ability, ii) the trapezoidal fuzzy set coverage constituted a perfect fit for the management of uncertainties in a realistic way in the model, and iii) the relevant fuzzification was executed without any human/expert intervention/supervision. The well-known Turkish Network Data demonstrated the proposed model’s efficacy. Furthermore, the results show that the developed model contributed to the overall theoretical framework of fuzzy approach employment in optimization models and outperformed classical version in numerical experiments.

Jointly Modeling Rating Responses and Times with Fuzzy Numbers: An Application to Psychometric Data

In several research areas, ratings data and response times have been successfully used to unfold the stagewise process through which human raters provide their responses to questionnaires and social surveys. A limitation of the standard approach to analyze this type of data is that it requires the use of independent statistical models. Although this provides an effective way to simplify the data analysis, it could potentially involve difficulties with regard to statistical inference and interpretation. In this sense, a joint analysis could be more effective. In this research article, we describe a way to jointly analyze ratings and response times by means of fuzzy numbers. A probabilistic tree model framework has been adopted to fuzzify ratings data and four-parameters triangular fuzzy numbers have been used in order to integrate crisp responses and times. Finally, a real case study on psychometric data is discussed in order to illustrate the proposed methodology. Overall, we provide initial findings to the problem of using fuzzy numbers as abstract models for representing ratings data with additional information (i.e., response times). The results indicate that using fuzzy numbers leads to theoretically sound and more parsimonious data analysis methods, which limit some statistical issues that may occur with standard data analysis procedures.

Exploring Covert States of Brain Dynamics via Fuzzy Inference Encoding

Human brain inherently exhibits latent mental processes which are likely to change rapidly over time. A framework that adopts a fuzzy inference system is proposed to model the dynamics of the human brain. The fuzzy inference system is used to encode real-world data to represent the salient features of the EEG signals. Then, an unsupervised clustering is conducted on the extracted feature space to identify the brain (external and covert) states that respond to different cognitive demands. To understand the human state change, a state transition diagram is introduced, allowing visualization of connectivity patterns between every pair of states. We compute the transition probability between every pair of states to represent the relationships between the states. This state transition diagram is named as the Fuzzy Covert State Transition Diagram (FCOSTD), which helps the understanding of human states and human performance. We then apply FCOSTD on distracted driving experiments. FCOSTD successfully discovers the external and covert states, faithfully reveals the transition of the brain between states, and the route of the state change when humans are distracted during a driving task. The experimental results demonstrate that different subjects have similar states and inter-state transition behaviour (establishing the consistency of the system) but different ways to allocate brain resources as different actions are being taken.