Towards a Reduced In Silico Model Predicting Biochemical Recurrence After Radiotherapy in Prostate Cancer

Determination of acceptable Hounsfield units uncertainties via a sensitivity analysis for an accurate dose calculation in the context of prostate MRI-only radiotherapy

Radiation therapy is moving from CT based to MRI guided planning, particularly for soft tissue anatomy. An important requirement of this new workflow is the generation of synthetic-CT (sCT) from MRI to enable treatment dose calculations. Automatic methods to determine the acceptable range of CT Hounsfield Unit (HU) uncertainties to avoid dose distribution errors is thus a key step toward safe MRI-only radiotherapy. This work has analysed the effects of controlled errors introduced in CT scans on the delivered radiation dose for prostate cancer patients. Spearman correlation coefficient has been computed, and a global sensitivity analysis performed following the Morris screening method. This allows the classification of different error factors according to their impact on the dose at the isocentre. sCT HU estimation errors in the bladder appeared to be the least influential factor, and sCT quality assessment should not only focus on organs surrounding the radiation target, as errors in other soft tissue may significantly impact the dose in the target volume. This methodology links dose and intensity-based metrics, and is the first step to define a threshold of acceptability of HU uncertainties for accurate dose planning.