Limited scope for plasticity to increase upper thermal limits

The lack of plasticity and interspecific variability in thermal limits produce a highly heat-tolerant tropical host-parasitoid system

Thermal limits are often used as proxies to assess the vulnerability of ectotherms to environmental change. While meta-analyses point out a relatively low plasticity of heat limits and a large interspecific variability, only few studies have compared the heat tolerance of interacting species. The present study focuses on the thermal limits, and their plasticity (heat hardening), of three species co-occurring in Western Africa: two ectoparasitoid species, Dinarmus basalis (Rondani) (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) and Eupelmus vuilleti (Crawford) (Hymenoptera: Eupelmidae), and their common host, Callosobruchus maculatus (F.) (Coleoptera: Bruchidae). The investigation delves into the Critical Thermal Maximum (CTmax), representing the upper tolerance limit, to understand how these species may cope with extreme thermal events. The CTmax of all three species appeared similarly high, hovering around 46.5 °C, exceeding the global mean CTmax observed in insects by 3.5 °C. Short-term exposure to moderate heat stress showed no impact on CTmax, suggesting a potential lack of heat hardening in these species. Therefore, we emphasized the similarity of heat tolerance in these interacting species, potentially stemming from both evolutionary adaptations to high temperatures during development and the stable and similar microclimate experienced by the three species over the years. While the high thermal tolerance should allow these species to endure extreme temperature events, the apparent lack of plasticity raises concerns about their ability to adapt to future climate change scenarios. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into the thermal physiology of these interacting species, providing a basis for understanding their responses to climate change and potential implications for the host-parasitoid system.

Anticipating change: The impact of simulated seasonal heterogeneity on heat tolerances along a latitudinal cline

An understanding of thermal limits and variation across geographic regions is central to predicting how any population may respond to global change. Latitudinal clines, in particular, have been used to demonstrate that populations can be locally adapted to their own thermal environment and, as a result, not all populations will be equally impacted by an increase in temperature. But how robust are these signals of thermal adaptation to the other ecological challenges that animals commonly face in the wild? Seasonal changes in population density, food availability, or photoperiod are common ecological challenges that could disrupt patterns of thermal tolerance along a cline if each population differentially used these signals to anticipate future temperatures and adjust their thermal tolerances accordingly. In this study, we aimed to test the robustness of a cline in thermal tolerance to simulated signals of seasonal heterogeneity. Experimental animals were derived from clones of the Australian water flea, Daphnia carinata, sampled from nine distinct populations along a latitudinal transect in Eastern Australia. We then factorially combined summer (18 h light, 6 h dark) and winter (6 h light, 18 h dark) photoperiods with high (5 million algal cells individual-1 day-1) and low (1 million algal cells individual-1 day-1) food availabilities, before performing static heat shock assays to measure thermal tolerance. We found that the thermal tolerances of the clonal populations were sensitive to both measures of seasonal change. In general, higher food availability led to an increase in thermal tolerances, with the magnitude of the increase varying by clone. In contrast, a switch in photoperiod led to rank-order changes in thermal tolerances, with heat resistance increasing for some clones, and decreasing for others. Heat resistance, however, still declined with increasing latitude, irrespective of the manipulation of seasonal signals, with clones from northern populations always showing greater thermal resistance, most likely driven by adaptation to winter thermal conditions. While photoperiod and food availability can clearly shape thermal tolerances for specific populations, they are unlikely to overwhelm overarching signals of thermal adaptation, and thus, observed clines in heat resistance will likely have remained robust to these forms of seasonal heterogeneity.

Within-population plastic responses to combined thermal-nutritional stress differ from those in response to single stressors, and are genetically independent across traits in both males and females

Phenotypic plasticity helps animals to buffer the effects of increasing thermal and nutritional stress created by climate change. Plastic responses to single and combined stressors can vary among genetically diverged populations. However, less is known about how plasticity in response to combined stress varies among individuals within a population or whether such variation changes across life-history traits. This is important because individual variation within populations shapes population-level responses to environmental change. Here, we used isogenic lines of Drosophila melanogaster to assess the plasticity of egg-to-adult viability and sex-specific body size for combinations of 2 temperatures (25 °C or 28 °C) and 3 diets (standard diet, low caloric diet, or low protein:carbohydrate ratio diet). Our results reveal substantial within-population genetic variation in plasticity for egg-to-adult viability and wing size in response to combined thermal-nutritional stress. This genetic variation in plasticity was a result of cross-environment genetic correlations that were often < 1 for both traits, as well as changes in the expression of genetic variation across environments for egg-to-adult viability. Cross-sex genetic correlations for body size were weaker when the sexes were reared in different conditions, suggesting that the genetic basis of traits may change with the environment. Furthermore, our results suggest that plasticity in egg-to-adult viability is genetically independent from plasticity in body size. Importantly, plasticity in response to diet and temperature individually differed from plastic shifts in response to diet and temperature in combination. By quantifying plasticity and the expression of genetic variance in response to combined stress across traits, our study reveals the complexity of animal responses to environmental change, and the need for a more nuanced understanding of the potential for populations to adapt to ongoing climate change.

Thermal acclimation uncovers a simple genetic basis of adaptation to high temperature in a cosmopolitan pest

Understanding a population's fitness heterogeneity and genetic basis of thermal adaptation is essential for predicting the responses to global warming. We examined the thermotolerance and genetic adaptation of Plutella xylostella to exposure to hot temperatures. The population fitness parameters of the hot-acclimated DBM strains varied in the thermal environments. Using genome scanning and transcription profiling, we find a number of genes potentially involved in thermal adaptation of DBM. Editing two ABCG transporter genes, PxWhite and PxABCG, confirmed their role in altering cuticle permeability and influencing thermal responses. Our results demonstrate that SNP mutations in genes and changes in gene expression can allow DBM to rapidly adapt to thermal environment. ABCG transporter genes play an important role in thermal adaptation of DBM. This work improves our understanding of genetic adaptation mechanisms of insects to thermal stress and our capacity to predict the effects of rising global temperatures on ectotherms.

The embryonic thermal environment has positive but weak effects on thermal tolerance later in life in the aquatic invertebrate Gammarus chevreuxi

Recent evidence suggests that the adult phenotype is influenced by temperatures experienced in early life. However, our understanding of the extent to which the embryonic environment can modulate thermal tolerance later in life is limited, owing to the paucity of studies with appropriate experimental designs to test for this form of developmental plasticity. We investigated whether the thermal environment experienced during embryonic development affects thermal limits in later life. Embryos of the estuarine amphipod Gammarus chevreuxi were incubated until hatching to 15 °C, 20 °C and 25 °C, then reared under a common temperature. Using thermal ramping assays, we determined upper thermal limits in juveniles, four weeks post-hatch. Individuals exposed to higher temperatures during embryonic development displayed greater thermal tolerance as juveniles (acclimation response ratio ≈ 0.10-0.25 for upper lethal temperature). However, we suggest that the degree of developmental plasticity observed is limited, and will provide little benefit under future climate change scenarios.

Macroecological predictors of evolutionary and plastic potential do not apply at microgeographic scales for a freshwater cladoceran under climate change

Rapid evolutionary adaptation could reduce the negative impacts of climate change if sufficient heritability of key traits exists under future climate conditions. Plastic responses to climate change could also reduce negative impacts. Understanding which populations are likely to respond via evolution or plasticity could therefore improve estimates of extinction risk. A large body of research suggests that the evolutionary and plastic potential of a population can be predicted by the degree of spatial and temporal climatic variation it experiences. However, we know little about the scale at which these relationships apply. Here, we test if spatial and temporal variation in temperature affects genetic variation and plasticity of fitness and a key thermal tolerance trait (critical thermal maximum; CTmax) at microgeographic scales using a metapopulation of Daphnia magna in freshwater rock pools. Specifically, we ask if (a) there is a microgeographic adaptation of CTmax and fitness to differences in temperature among the pools, (b) pools with greater temporal temperature variation have more genetic variation or plasticity in CTmax or fitness, and (c) increases in temperature affect the heritability of CTmax and fitness. Although we observed genetic variation and plasticity in CTmax and fitness, and differences in fitness among pools, we did not find support for the predicted relationships between temperature variation and genetic variation or plasticity. Furthermore, the genetic variation and plasticity we observed in CTmax are unlikely sufficient to reduce the impacts of climate change. CTmax plasticity was minimal and heritability was 72% lower when D. magna developed at the higher temperatures predicted under climate change. In contrast, the heritability of fitness increased by 53% under warmer temperatures, suggesting an increase in overall evolutionary potential unrelated to CTmax under climate change. More research is needed to understand the evolutionary and plastic potential under climate change and how that potential will be altered in future climates.

Spatio-temporal modelling suggests that some dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Geotrupidae) may respond to global warming by boosting dung removal

In the current framework of changes to the global climate, information on the thermal tolerance of dung beetles is crucial to understand how they might cope with increases in land temperature in terms of survival and ecosystem service provision. In this spatio-temporal modelling study, we investigated the thermal tolerance and effect of temperature changes on dung removal by three dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Geotrupidae) living within the 600-1400 m altitudinal belt in the Italian Alps. We chose large tunneler beetles because of their pivotal role in dung removal and nutrient recycling, important ecosystem services for maintaining the viability and profitability of the Alpine pastoral system. Our study used experimental data on dung removal at different temperatures to predict changes to this ecosystem service in the future considering different climatic scenarios and changes in land use for the specific study area. The results show that the temperature increases incurred between 1981 and 2005 may have boosted rates of spring dung removal across the entire study area (expressed as average dung removal per pair per month), partially compensating for the reduction in grassland extent within pasture-based livestock farming systems. Despite the limitations related to modelling future climate change scenarios and uncertainties deriving from several interacting factors (e.g., the sensitivity of large-bodied species to land-use changes), our results suggest that the predicted increases in temperature over the next 80 years would continue to boost dung removal, revealing a resilience of this service. The increase in dung removal rates, for all three species, is mainly related to the most extreme scenario of carbon emissions and for the months spanning from May to October of the interval 2041-2100. Focusing on large tunnelers and adopting a dynamic approach that considers changes in dung removal over space and time can assist ecosystem service conservation planning.

Geography and developmental plasticity shape post-larval thermal tolerance in the golden star tunicate, Botryllus schlosseri

Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity play key roles in mediating organisms' ability to respond to spatiotemporal variation in temperature. These two processes often act together to generate latitudinal or elevational clines in acute temperature tolerance. Phenotypic plasticity is also subject to local adaptation, with the expectation that populations inhabiting more variable environments should exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance. Here we examine the potential for local adaptation and developmental plasticity of thermal tolerance in the widespread invasive tunicate Botryllus schlosseri. By comparing five populations across a thermal gradient spanning 4.4° of latitude in the northwest Atlantic, we demonstrate that warmer populations south of the Gulf of Maine exhibit significantly increased (∼0.2 °C) post-larval temperature tolerance relative to the colder populations within it. We also show that B. schlosseri post-larvae possess a high degree of developmental plasticity for this trait, shifting their median temperature of survival (LT50) upwards by as much as 0.18 °C per 1 °C increase in environmental temperature. Lastly, we found that populations vary in their degrees of developmental plasticity, with populations that experience more pronounced short-term temperature variability exhibiting greater developmental plasticity, suggesting the local adaptation of developmental plasticity. By comparing the thermal tolerance of populations across space and through time, we demonstrate how geography and developmental plasticity have shaped thermal tolerance in B. schlosseri. These results help inform our understanding of how species are able to adjust their thermal physiology in new environments, including those encountered during invasion and under increasingly novel climate conditions.

Climate change impacts on insect pests for high value specialty crops in California

California is a global leader in production and supply of walnuts and almonds, and the state is the largest producer of peaches in the U.S. These crops have an important contribution to the California's agricultural economy. Damages to these crops from lepidopteran pests, mainly from Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) (family: Tortricidae), Peach twig borer (Anarsia lineatella) (family: Gelechiidae) and Oriental fruit moth (Grapholita molesta) (family: Tortricidae), are still high, despite the improvement in pest management activities. Given that temperature increase can directly impact the rate of growth and development of these pests, it is important to understand to what extent dynamics of these pests will change in future in California. The objective of this study was to quantify changes in the biofix, lifecycle length, and number of generations for these pests for the entire Central Valley of California. Using a well-established growing-degree days (GDD) model calibrated and validated using observations from orchards of California, and climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) General Circulation Models, we found that biofix dates of these pests are expected to shift earlier by up to 28 days, and length of generations is expected to be shortened by up to 19 days, and up to 1.4 extra generations of these pests can be added by the end of the century depending on the scenario. Results from this work would enable industries to prioritize development of practices that are more effective in the long run, such as developing better cultural and biological pest solutions and insect tolerant varieties. Growers and researchers can take proactive actions to minimize future risks associated with these damaging pests. This work can be scalable to other pests and regions to understand regional dynamics of damaging agricultural pests under climate change.

Surviving hot summer: Roles of phenotypic plasticity of intertidal mobile species considering microhabitat environmental heterogeneity

For species inhabiting warming and variable thermal environment, coordinated changes in heat tolerance to temperature fluctuations, which largely depend on phenotypic plasticity, are pivotal in buffering high temperatures. Determining the roles of phenotypic plasticity in wild populations and common garden experiments help us understand how organisms survive hot summer and the warming world. We thus monitored the operative temperature of the intertidal limpets Cellana toreuma in both emergent rock and tidal pool microhabitats from June to October 2021, determined the variations of upper thermal limits of short-term acclimated and long-term acclimated limpets from different microhabitats (emergent rock and tidal pool), and further calculated the relationship between the upper thermal limits and acclimation capacity. Our results indicated that living on the emergent rock, limpets encountered more extreme events in summer. For the short-term acclimated samples, limpets on the emergent rock exhibited obvious variations of sublethal thermal limit (i.e., Arrhenius Break Point of cardiac performance, ABT) during summer months, however, this variation of ABT was absent in the limpets in the tidal pool. After the laboratory long-term acclimation, the ABTs and FLTs (Flat Line Temperature of cardiac performance, as an indicator of lethal temperature) of limpets both on the rock and in the tidal pool increased significantly in October, implying the potential existence of selection during the hot summer. Our results further showed that environmental temperature was an important driver of phenotypic plasticity. This study highlighted the changes in the thermal tolerance of intertidal limpets during summer in different microhabitats.

Increase in heat tolerance following a period of heat stress in a naturally occurring insect species

Climate warming is the defining environmental crisis of the 21st century. Elucidating whether organisms can adapt to rapidly changing thermal environments is therefore a crucial research priority. We investigated warming effects on a native Hemipteran insect (Murgantia histrionica) that feeds on an endemic plant species (Isomeris arborea) of the California coastal sage scrub. Experiments conducted in 2009 quantified the temperature responses of juvenile maturation rates and stage-specific and cumulative survivorship. The intervening decade has seen some of the hottest years ever recorded, with increasing mean temperatures accompanied by an increase in the frequency of hot extremes. Experiments repeated in 2021 show a striking change in the bugs' temperature responses. In 2009, no eggs developed past the second nymphal stage at 33°C. In 2021, eggs developed into reproductive adults at 33°C. Upper thermal limits for maturation and survivorship have increased, along with a decrease in mortality risk with increasing age and temperature, and a decrease in the temperature sensitivity of mortality with increasing age. While we cannot exclude the possibility that other environmental factors occurring in concert could have affected our findings, the fact that all observed trait changes are in the direction of greater heat tolerance suggests that consistent exposure to extreme heat stress may at least be partially responsible for these changes. Harlequin bugs belong to the suborder Heteroptera, which contains a number of economically important pests, biological control agents and disease carriers. Their differential success in withstanding warming compared to beneficial holometabolous insects such as pollinators may exacerbate the decline of beneficial insects due to other causes (e.g. pollution and pesticides) with potentially serious consequences on both biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Effect of thermal acclimation on the tolerance of the peach fruit fly (Bactrocera zonata: Tephritidae) to heat and cold stress

Understanding the thermal biology of insects is of increasing importance for predicting their geographic distribution, particularly in light of current and future global temperature increases. Within the limits set by genetic makeup, thermal tolerance is affected by the physiological conditioning of individuals (e.g., through acclimation). Considering this phenotypic plasticity may add to accurately estimating changes to the distribution of insects under a changing climate. We studied the effect of thermal acclimation on cold and heat tolerance of the peach fruit fly (Bactrocera zonata) - an invasive, polyphagous pest that is currently expanding through Africa and the Middle East. Females and males were acclimated at 20, 25 and 30 °C for up to 19 days following adult emergence. The critical thermal minimum (CTmin) and maximum (CTmax) were subsequently recorded as well adult survival following acute exposure to chilling (0 or -3 °C for 2 h). Additionally, we determined the survival of pupae subjected for 2 h to temperatures ranging from -12 °C to 5 °C. We demonstrate that acclimation at 30 °C resulted in significantly higher CTmax and CTmin values (higher heat resistance and lower cold resistance, respectively). Additionally, adult recovery following exposure to -3 °C was significantly reduced following acclimation at 30 °C, and this effect was significantly higher for females. Pupal mortality increased with the decrease in temperature, reaching LT50 and LT95 values following exposure to -0.32 °C and -6.88 °C, respectively. Finally, we found that the survival of pupae subjected to 0 and 2 °C steadily increased with pupal age. Our findings substantiate a physiological foundation for understanding the current geographic range of B. zonata. We assume that acclimation at 30 °C affected the thermal tolerance of the flies partly through modulating feeding and metabolism. Tolerance to chilling during the pupal stage probably changed according to temperature-sensitive processes occurring during metamorphosis, rendering younger pupae more sensitive to chilling.

Shifts in survival and reproduction after chronic warming enhance the potential of a marine copepod to persist under extreme heat events

The study of a species' thermal tolerance and vital rates responses provides useful metrics to characterize its vulnerability to ocean warming. Under prolonged thermal stress, plastic and adaptive processes can adjust the physiology of organisms. Yet it is uncertain whether the species can expand their upper thermal limits to cope with rapid and extreme changes in environmental temperature. In this study, we reared the marine copepod Paracartia grani at control (19°C) and warmer conditions (25°C) for >18 generations and assessed their survival and fecundity under short-term exposure to a range of temperatures (11-34°C). After multigenerational warming, the upper tolerance to acute exposure (24 h) increased by 1-1.3°C, although this enhancement decreased to 0.3-0.8°C after longer thermal stress (7 days). Warm-reared copepods were smaller and produced significantly fewer offspring at the optimum temperature. No shift in the thermal breadth of the reproductive response was observed. Yet the fecundity rates of the warm-reared copepods in the upper thermal range were up to 21-fold higher than the control. Our results show that chronic warming improved tolerance to stress temperatures and fecundity of P. grani, therefore, enhancing its chances to persist under extreme heat events.

Trade-offs between baseline thermal tolerance and thermal tolerance plasticity are much less common than it appears

Thermal tolerance plasticity is a core mechanism by which organisms can mitigate the effects of climate change. As a result, there is a need to understand how variation in tolerance plasticity arises. The baseline tolerance/plasticity trade-off hypothesis (hereafter referred to as the trade-off hypothesis, TOH) has recently emerged as a potentially powerful explanation. The TOH posits that organisms with high baseline thermal tolerance have reduced thermal tolerance plasticity relative to those with low baseline tolerance. Many studies have found support for the TOH. However, this support must be regarded cautiously because the most common means of testing the TOH can yield spurious "trade-offs" due to regression to the mean. I acquired data for 25 previously published analyses that supported the TOH at the intraspecific level and reanalyzed them after applying a method that adjusts plasticity estimates for regression to the mean. Only six of the 25 analyses remained statistically significant after adjustment, and effect size and variance explained decreased in all cases. The few data sets in which support for the TOH was maintained after adjustment point to areas of future study, but are too few to make generalizations at this point. In sum, regression to the mean has led to a substantial overestimation of support for the TOH and must be accounted for in future tests of the hypothesis.

Moving beyond heritability in the search for coral adaptive potential

Global environmental change is happening at unprecedented rates. Coral reefs are among the ecosystems most threatened by global change. For wild populations to persist, they must adapt. Knowledge shortfalls about corals' complex ecological and evolutionary dynamics, however, stymie predictions about potential adaptation to future conditions. Here, we review adaptation through the lens of quantitative genetics. We argue that coral adaptation studies can benefit greatly from "wild" quantitative genetic methods, where traits are studied in wild populations undergoing natural selection, genomic relationship matrices can replace breeding experiments, and analyses can be extended to examine genetic constraints among traits. In addition, individuals with advantageous genotypes for anticipated future conditions can be identified. Finally, genomic genotyping supports simultaneous consideration of how genetic diversity is arrayed across geographic and environmental distances, providing greater context for predictions of phenotypic evolution at a metapopulation scale.

The time course of acclimation of critical thermal maxima is modulated by the magnitude of temperature change and thermal daily fluctuations

Plasticity in the critical thermal maximum (CT_max) helps ectotherms survive in variable thermal conditions. Yet, little is known about the environmental mechanisms modulating its time course. We used the larvae of three neotropical anurans (Boana platanera, Engystomops pustulosus and Rhinella horribilis) to test whether the magnitude of temperature changes and the existence of fluctuations in the thermal environment affected both the amount of change in CT_max and its acclimation rate (i.e., its time course). For that, we transferred tadpoles from a pre-treatment temperature (23 °C, constant) to two different water temperatures: mean (28 °C) and hot (33 °C), crossed with constant and daily fluctuating thermal regimes, and recorded CT_max values, daily during six days. We modeled changes in CT_max as an asymptotic function of time, temperature, and the daily thermal fluctuation. The fitted function provided the asymptotic CT_max value (CT_max∞) and CT_max acclimation rate (k). Tadpoles achieved their CT_max∞ between one and three days. Transferring tadpoles to the hot treatment generated higher CT_max∞ at earlier times, inducing faster acclimation rates in tadpoles. In contrast, thermal fluctuations equally led to higher CT_max∞ values but tadpoles required longer times to achieve CT_max∞ (i.e., slower acclimation rates). These thermal treatments interacted differently with the studied species. In general, the thermal generalist Rhinella horribilis showed the most plastic acclimation rates whereas the ephemeral-pond breeder Engystomops pustulosus, more exposed to heat peaks during larval development, showed less plastic (i.e., canalized) acclimation rates. Further comparative studies of the time course of CT_max acclimation should help to disentangle the complex interplay between the thermal environment and species ecology, to understand how tadpoles acclimate to heat stress.

Thermal tolerance limits and physiological traits as indicators of Hediste diversicolor's acclimation capacity to global and local change drivers

Global projections predict significant increases in ocean temperature and changes in ocean chemistry, including salinity variations by 2100. This has led to a substantial interest in the study of thermal ecophysiology, as temperature is a major factor shaping marine ectotherm communities. However, responses to temperature may be influenced by other factors such as salinity, highlighting the relevance of multiple stressor studies. In the present work, we experimentally evaluated the thermal tolerance of the marine ragworm Hediste diversicolor under predicted global change scenarios. Organisms were subjected to an experimental trial under control (24 °C), and two temperature treatment scenarios (ocean warming +3 °C - (27 °C) and heat wave +6 °C - (30 °C)), combined with salinity variations (20 and 30) in a full factorial design for 29 days. Environmental data from the field were collected during 2019 and 2020. At day 30 post exposure, upper thermal limits (Critical Thermal Maximum - CTMax), thermal safety margins (TSM) and acclimation capacity were measured. Higher acclimation temperatures led to higher thermal tolerance limits, confirming that H. diversicolor features some physiological plasticity, acclimation capacity and a positive thermal safety margin. This margin was greater considering in situ temperature data from 2019 than maximum temperatures for 2020 (CTMax > maximum habitat temperature-MHT). Moreover, smaller organisms displayed higher upper thermal limits suggesting that thermal tolerance is size dependent. Ragworms subjected to higher salinity also showed a higher CTMax than those acclimated to lower salinity. However, temperature and salinity showed an additive effect on CTMax, as no significant interaction was detected. We conclude that H. diversicolor can easily acclimate to increased water temperature, independently of salinity variations. Given the key role of ragworms in food webs in estuaries and coastal lagoons, substrate bioturbation and aquaculture, this information is relevant to support conservation actions, optimize culture protocols and identify thermal resistant strains.

Mechanisms underlying thermal breadth differ by species in insects from adjacent but thermally distinct streams - A test of the climate variability hypothesis

The Climate Variability Hypothesis (CVH) predicts that ectotherms from thermally variable climates should have wider thermal tolerances than their counterparts living in stable climates. Although the CVH has been widely supported, the mechanisms underlying wider tolerance traits remain unclear. We test the CVH along with three mechanistic hypotheses that may explain how differences in tolerance limits arise: 1) Short-term Acclimation Hypothesis (mechanism: rapid, reversible plasticity), 2) Long-term Effects Hypothesis (mechanisms: developmental plasticity, epigenetics, maternal effects, or adaptation), and 3) Trade-off Hypothesis (mechanism: trade-off between short- and long-term responses). We tested these hypotheses by measuring CT_MIN, CT_MAX, and thermal breadths (CT_MAX - CT_MIN) of aquatic mayfly and stonefly nymphs from adjacent streams with distinctly different levels of thermal variation following acclimation to either cool, control, and warm conditions. In one stream, daily mean temperature varied by about 5 °C annually, whereas in the other, it varied by more than 25 °C. In support of the CVH, we found that mayfly and stonefly nymphs from the thermally variable stream had broader thermal tolerances than those from the thermally stable stream. However, support for the mechanistic hypotheses differed by species. Mayflies appear to rely on long-term strategies for maintaining broader thermal limits, whereas stoneflies achieve broader thermal limits via short-term plasticity. We found no support for the Trade-off Hypothesis.

The potential climatic range of spotted lanternfly may be broader than previously predicted

Spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula White) is an invasive planthopper that was introduced to the United States from Asia and readily spreads via human aided means. Three geographically separated populations in the United States (NJ, PA, and WV) were collected and used to assess the effects of fluctuating thermal regimes that included temperatures above or below the upper (Tmax) and lower (Tmin) developmental thresholds, respectively, on nymphal survival and development, and to determine if there was within- and among-population variation in hatch timing and temperature responses of nymphs. Nymphs exposed to temperatures > Tmax and Collapse

Key Words

• climate
• development
• phenology
• survival
• temperature

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MESH Headings Collapse

Grants

• Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
• Northern Research Station

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Affiliation(s)

Melody A. Keena Northern Research Station, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, Hamden, CT, United States
George Hamilton Department of Entomology, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Devin Kreitman Department of Entomology, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, United States

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Biogeography of cereal stemborers and their natural enemies: forecasting pest management efficacy under changing climate

BACKGROUND

Climate warming presents physiological challenges to insects, manifesting as loss of key life-history fitness traits and survival. For interacting host-parasitoid species, physiological responses to heat stress may vary, thereby potentially uncoupling trophic ecological relationships. Here, we assessed heat tolerance traits and sensitivity to prevailing and future maximum temperatures for the cereal stemborer pests, Chilo partellus, Busseola fusca and Sesamia calamistis and their endo-parasitoids, Cotesia sesamiae and Cotesia flavipes. We further used the machine learning algorithm, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), to model current and potential distribution of these species.

RESULTS

The mean critical thermal maxima (CT_max ) ranged from 39.5 ± 0.9°C to 44.6 ± 0.6°C and from 46.8 ± 0.7°C to 48.5 ± 0.9°C for parasitoids and stemborers, with C. sesamiae and Ch. partellus exhibiting the lowest and highest CT_max respectively. From the current climate to the 2050s scenario, parasitoids recorded a significant reduction in warming tolerance compared with their hosts. Habitat suitability for all stemborer-parasitoid species was spatially heterogeneous under current and future climatic scenarios. Cotesia sesamiae C. flavipes and B. fusca exhibited significant habitat loss, whereas Ch. partellus and S. calamistis showed a significant habitat gain under future 2050s predictions. Model metrics based on mean area under the curve ranged from 0.72 to 0.84 for all species, indicating a good predictive performance of the models.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest C. sesamiae and C. flavipes may face survival constraints or extirpation compared with their pest hosts when environmental temperature reaches their upper thermal limits earlier, likely reducing pest regulation through density-mediated effects. The results demonstrate potential destabilization of stemborer-parasitoid trophic systems potentially compromising biocontrol efficacy under climate warming. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Are Signals of Local Environmental Adaptation Diluted by Laboratory Culture?

Insects have the ability to readily adapt to changes in environmental conditions, however the strength of local environmental adaptation signals under divergent conditions and the occurrence of trait inertia after relaxation of selection, remains poorly understood, especially for traits of climate stress resistance (CSR) and their phenotypic plasticity. The strength of environmental adaptation signals depend on several selection pressures present in the local environment, while trait inertia often occurs when there is a weakening or removal of a source of selection. Here, using Drosophila melanogaster, we asked whether signals of adaptation in CSR traits (critical thermal limits, heat and chill survival and, desiccation and starvation resistance) persist after exposure to laboratory culture for different durations (two vs. ten generations) across four climatically distinct populations. We show that culture duration has large effects on CSR traits and can both amplify or dilute signals of local adaptation. Effects were however dependent upon interactions between the source population, acclimation (adult acclimation at either 18 °C, 23 °C or 28 °C) conditions and the sex of the flies. Trait plasticity is markedly affected by the interaction between the source population, the specific acclimation conditions employed, and the duration in the laboratory. Therefore, a complex matrix of dynamic CSR trait responses is shown in space and time. Given these strong interaction effects, 'snapshot' estimates of environmental adaptation can result in misleading conclusions about the fitness consequences of climate variability.

Transcription dynamics of heat shock proteins in response to thermal acclimation in Ostrinia furnacalis

Acclimation to abiotic stress plays a critical role in insect adaption and evolution, particularly during extreme climate events. Heat shock proteins (HSPs) are evolutionarily conserved molecular chaperones caused by abiotic and biotic stressors. Understanding the relationship between thermal acclimation and the expression of specific HSPs is essential for addressing the functions of HSP families. This study investigated this issue using the Asian corn borer Ostrinia furnacalis, one of the most important corn pests in China. The transcription of HSP genes was induced in larvae exposed to 33°C. Thereafter, the larvae were exposed to 43°C, for 2 h, and then allowed to recover at 27 C for 0, 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 h. At the recovery times 0.5–4 h, most population tolerates less around 1–3 h than without recovery (at 0 h) suffering continuous heat stress (43 C). There is no difference in the heat tolerance at 6 h recovery, with similar transcriptional levels of HSPs as the control. However, a significant thermal tolerance was observed after 8 h of the recovery time, with a higher level of HSP70. In addition, the transcription of HSP60 and HSC70 (heat shock cognate protein 70) genes did not show a significant effect. HSP70 or HSP90 significantly upregulated within 1–2 h sustained heat stress (43 C) but declined at 6 h. Our findings revealed extreme thermal stress induced quick onset of HSP70 or HSP90 transcription. It could be interpreted as an adaptation to the drastic and rapid temperature variation. The thermal tolerance of larvae is significantly enhanced after 6 h of recovery and possibly regulated by HSP70.

Environmental change and the rate of phenotypic plasticity

With rapid and less predictable environmental change emerging as the 'new norm', understanding how individuals tolerate environmental stress via plastic, often reversible changes to the phenotype (i.e., reversible phenotypic plasticity, RPP), remains a key issue in ecology. Here, we examine the potential for better understanding how organisms overcome environmental challenges within their own lifetimes by scrutinizing a somewhat overlooked aspect of RPP, namely the rate at which it can occur. Although recent advances in the field provide indication of the aspects of environmental change where RPP rates may be of particular ecological relevance, we observe that current theoretical models do not consider the evolutionary potential of the rate of RPP. Whilst recent theory underscores the importance of environmental predictability in determining the slope of the evolved reaction norm for a given trait (i.e., how much plasticity can occur), a hitherto neglected possibility is that the rate of plasticity might be a more dynamic component of this relationship than previously assumed. If the rate of plasticity itself can evolve, as empirical evidence foreshadows, rates of plasticity may have the potential to alter the level predictability in the environment as perceived by the organism and thus influence the slope of the evolved reaction norm. However, optimality in the rate of phenotypic plasticity, its evolutionary dynamics in different environments and influence of constraints imposed by associated costs remain unexplored and may represent fruitful avenues of exploration in future theoretical and empirical treatments of the topic. We conclude by reviewing published studies of RPP rates, providing suggestions for improving the measurement of RPP rates, both in terms of experimental design and in the statistical quantification of this component of plasticity.

The effect of thermal microenvironment in upper thermal tolerance plasticity in tropical tadpoles. Implications for vulnerability to climate warming

Current climate change is generating accelerated increase in extreme heat events and organismal plastic adjustments in upper thermal tolerances, (critical thermal maximum -CT_max ) are recognized as the quicker mitigating mechanisms. However, current research casts doubt on the actual mitigating role of thermal acclimation to face heat impacts, due to its low magnitude and weak environmental signal. Here, we examined these drawbacks by first estimating maximum extent of thermal acclimation by examining known sources of variation affecting CT_max expression, such as daily thermal fluctuation and heating rates. Second, we examined whether the magnitude and pattern of CT_max plasticity is dependent of the thermal environment by comparing the acclimation responses of six species of tropical amphibian tadpoles inhabiting thermally contrasting open and shade habitats and, finally, estimating their warming tolerances (WT = CT_max  - maximum temperatures) as estimator of heating risk. We found that plastic CT_max responses are improved in tadpoles exposed to fluctuating daily regimens. Slow heating rates implying longer duration assays determined a contrasting pattern in CT_max plastic expression, depending on species environment. Shade habitat species suffer a decline in CT_max whereas open habitat tadpoles greatly increase it, suggesting an adaptive differential ability of hot exposed species to quick hardening adjustments. Open habitat tadpoles although overall acclimate more than shade habitat species, cannot capitalize this beneficial increase in CT_max, because the maximum ambient temperatures are very close to their critical limits, and this increase may not be large enough to reduce acute heat stress under the ongoing global warming.

Thermal tolerance and acclimation capacity in the European common frog (Rana temporaria) change throughout ontogeny

Phenotypic plasticity may allow ectotherms with complex life histories such as amphibians to cope with climate-driven changes in their environment. Plasticity in thermal tolerance (i.e., shifts of thermal limits via acclimation to higher temperatures) has been proposed as a mechanism to cope with warming and extreme thermal events. However, thermal tolerance and, hence, acclimation capacity, is known to vary with life stage. Using the common frog (Rana temporaria) as a model species, we measured the capacity to adjust lower (CT_min ) and upper (CT_max ) critical thermal limits at different acclimation temperatures. We calculated the acclimation response ratio as a metric to assess the stage-specific acclimation capacity at each of seven consecutive ontogenetic stages and tested whether acclimation capacity was influenced by body mass and/or age. We further examined how acclimation temperature, body mass, age, and ontogenetic stage influenced CT_min and CT_max . In the temperate population of R. temporaria that we studied, thermal tolerance and acclimation capacity were affected by the ontogenetic stage. However, acclimation capacity at both thermal limits was well below 100% at all life stages tested. The lowest and highest acclimation capacity in thermal limits was observed in young and late larvae, respectively. The relatively low acclimation capacity of young larvae highlights a clear risk of amphibian populations to ongoing climate change. Ignoring stage-specific differences in thermal physiology may drastically underestimate the climate vulnerability of species, which will hamper successful conservation actions.

Geographic dispersion of invasive crop pests: the role of basal, plastic climate stress tolerance and other complementary traits in the tropics

Global pest invasions have significantly increased in recent years. These invasions together with climate warming directly impact agriculture. Tropical climates feature extreme weather events, including high temperatures and seasonal droughts. Thus, successful invasive pests in tropics have to adapt to these extreme climate features. The intrinsic factors relevant to tropical invasion of insects have been explored in many studies, but the knowledge is rather dispersed in contemporary literature. Here, we reviewed the potential biophysical characters of successful invasive pests' adaption to tropical environments including [1] inherent high basal stress tolerance and advanced life-history performances [2], phenotypic plasticity [3], rapid evolution to environmental stress, polyphagy, diverse reproductive strategies and high fecundity. We summarised how these traits and their interactive effects enhance pest invasions in the tropics. Comprehensive understanding of how these characters facilitate invasion improves models for predicting ecological consequences of climate change on invasive pest species for improved pest management.

Niche breadth and elevational range size: a comparative study on Middle-European Brassicaceae species

High-elevation species are predicted to have larger elevational ranges compared with species of lower elevations. The reasoning is that temperature variability is greater at higher elevation, selecting for wider niche breadth and more plastic genotypes. We used macroevolutionary comparisons involving 90 Brassicaceae species of the central Alps to test for associations among median elevation of occurrence, elevational range size and thermal variability over space and time on the one hand, and their associations with performance breadth or trait plasticity on the other hand. Performance breadth and trait plasticity were estimated by raising replicate plants per species under three temperature treatments (mild, recurrent frost, recurrent heat). Against prediction, we found that mid-elevation species had the largest elevational ranges, and their ranges were associated with increased spatial thermal variability. Nevertheless, variability in the thermal regime was positively associated neither with niche breadth nor with plasticity. Evidence for adaptive constraints was limited to a trade-off between acclimation-based increases in frost and heat resistance, and phylogenetic niche conservatism for median elevation of occurrence and temporal thermal variability. Results suggest that large elevational range size is associated with divergent adaptation within species, but not with more niche breadth or trait plasticity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Density-dependent ecosystem service delivery under shifting temperatures by dung beetles

Increases in the frequency and magnitude of suboptimal temperatures as a result of climate change are subjecting insects to unprecedented stresses. This may negatively affect their fitness and the efficiency of their ecosystem service provision. Dung beetles are ecosystem service providers: through feeding on and burying dung, they facilitate nutrient recycling, secondary seed dispersal, parasite control, soil bioturbation and dung decomposition. As such, prediction of how dung beetles respond to multiple anthropogenic environmental changes is critical for the conservation of ecosystem services. Here, we quantified ecosystem services via dung utilisation and dung ball production in three telecoprid species: Allogymnopleurus indigaceous, Scarabaeus zambezianus and Khepher prodigiosus. We examined ecosystem service efficiency factorially under different beetle densities towards different dung masses and under three temperature treatments (21 °C, 28 °C and 35 °C). Khepher prodigiosus, exhibited greatest dung utilisation efficiency overall across dung masses, compared to both S. zambezianus and A. indigaceous. Dung removal was exhibited under all the tested temperatures by all tested species, and therefore the sub-optimal temperatures employed here did not fully inhibit ecosystem service delivery. However, emergent effects among temperatures, beetle species and beetle density further affected removal efficiency: S. zambezianus and A. indigaceous utilisation increased with both warming and beetle density, whereas K. prodigiosus performance was less temperature- and density-dependent. Beetles also tended to exhibit positive density-dependence as dung supply increased. The numbers of dung balls produced differed across species, and increased with temperature and densities, with S. zambezianus producing significantly most balls overall. Our study provides novel evidence for differential density-dependent ecosystem service delivery among species across stressful temperature regimes and emergent effects for dung mass utilisation. This information is essential for biodiversity-ecosystem-function and is critical for the conservation of functionally efficacious species, with implications for natural capital conservation policy in rapidly changing environments.

Plasticity of thermal performance curves in a narrow range endemic water beetle

Thermal history can plastically alter the response of ectotherms to temperature, and thermal performance curves (TPCs) are powerful tools for exploring how organismal-level performance varies with temperature. Plasticity in TPCs may be favoured in thermally variable habitats, where it can result in fitness benefits. However, thermal physiology remains insufficiently studied for freshwater insects despite freshwater biodiversity being at great risk under global change. Here, we assess how acclimation at either summer or winter average temperatures changes TPCs for locomotion activity and metabolism in Enochrus jesusarribasi (Hydrophilidae), a water beetle endemic to shallow saline streams in SE Spain. This beetle is a bimodal gas exchanger and so we also assessed how aerial and aquatic gas exchange varied across temperatures for both acclimation treatments. Responses of locomotory TPCs to thermal acclimation were relatively weak, but high temperature acclimated beetles tended to exhibit higher maximum locomotor activity and reduced TPC breadth than those acclimated at lower temperature. High temperature acclimation increased the thermal sensitivity of metabolic rates, contrary to the response generally found in aquatic organisms. Higher metabolic rates upon high temperature acclimation were achieved by increasing aerial, rather than aquatic oxygen uptake. Such plastic respiratory behaviour likely contributed to enhanced locomotor performance at temperatures around the optimum and thermal plasticity could thus be an important component in the response of aquatic insects to climate change. However, high temperature acclimation appeared to be detrimental for locomotion in subsequent exposure at upper sublethal temperatures, suggesting that this narrow range endemic may be vulnerable to future climate warming. This study demonstrates that TPCs are context-specific, differing with performance metric as well as thermal history. Such context dependency must be considered when using TPCs to predict organismal responses to climate change.

Plastic responses of survival and fertility following heat stress in pupal and adult Drosophila virilis

The impact of rising global temperatures on survival and reproduction is putting many species at risk of extinction. In particular, it has recently been shown that thermal effects on reproduction, especially limits to male fertility, can underpin species distributions in insects. However, the physiological factors influencing fertility at high temperatures are poorly understood. Key factors that affect somatic thermal tolerance such as hardening, the ability to phenotypically increase thermal tolerance after a mild heat shock, and the differential impact of temperature on different life stages are largely unexplored for thermal fertility tolerance. Here, we examine the impact of high temperatures on male fertility in the cosmopolitan fruit fly Drosophila virilis. We first determined whether temperature stress at either the pupal or adult life history stage impacts fertility. We then tested the capacity for heat-hardening to mitigate heat-induced sterility. We found that thermal stress reduces fertility in different ways in pupae and adults. Pupal heat stress delays sexual maturity, whereas males heated as adults can reproduce initially following heat stress, but become sterile within seven days. We also found evidence that while heat-hardening in D. virilis can improve high temperature survival, there is no significant protective impact of this same hardening treatment on fertility. These results suggest that males may be unable to prevent the costs of high temperature stress on fertility through heat-hardening, which limits a species' ability to quickly and effectively reduce fertility loss in the face of short-term high temperature events.

Limited thermal plasticity may constrain ecosystem function in a basally heat tolerant tropical telecoprid dung beetle, Allogymnopleurus thalassinus (Klug, 1855)

Tropical organisms are more vulnerable to climate change and associated heat stress as they live close to their upper thermal limits (UTLs). UTLs do not only vary little across tropical species according to the basal versus plasticity ‘trade-off’ theory but may also be further constrained by low genetic variation. We tested this hypothesis, and its effects on ecosystem function using a diurnally active dung rolling beetle (telecoprid), Allogymnopleurus thalassinus (Klug, 1855) that inhabits arid environments. Specifically, (i) we tested basal heat tolerance (critical thermal maxima [CT_max] and heat knockdown time [HKDT]), and (ii) ecological functioning (dung removal) efficiency following dynamic chronic acclimation temperatures of variable high (VT-H) (28–45 °C) and variable low (VT-L) (28–16 °C). Results showed that A. thalassinus had extremely high basal heat tolerance (> 50 °C CT_max and high HKDT). Effects of acclimation were significant for heat tolerance, significantly increasing and reducing CT_max values for variable temperature high and variable temperature low respectively. Similarly, effects of acclimation on HKDT were significant, with variable temperature high significantly increasing HKDT, while variable temperature low reduced HKDT. Effects of acclimation on ecological traits showed that beetles acclimated to variable high temperatures were ecologically more efficient in their ecosystem function (dung removal) compared to those acclimated at variable low temperatures. Allogymnopleurus thalassinus nevertheless, had low acclimation response ratios, signifying limited scope for complete plasticity for UTLs tested here. This result supports the ‘trade-off’ theory, and that observed limited plasticity may unlikely buffer A. thalassinus against effects of climate change, and by extension, albeit with caveats to other tropical ecological service providing insect species. This work provides insights on the survival mechanisms of tropical species against heat and provides a framework for the conservation of these natural capital species that inhabit arid environments under rapidly changing environmental climate.

Thermal Performance Curves Are Shaped by Prior Thermal Environment in Early Life

Understanding links between thermal performance and environmental variation is necessary to predict organismal responses to climate change, and remains an ongoing challenge for ectotherms with complex life cycles. Distinct life stages can differ in thermal sensitivity, experience different environmental conditions as development unfolds, and, because stages are by nature interdependent, environmental effects can carry over from one stage to affect performance at others. Thermal performance may therefore respond to carryover effects of prior thermal environments, yet detailed insights into the nature, strength, and direction of those responses are still lacking. Here, in an aquatic ectotherm whose early planktonic stages (gametes, embryos, and larvae) govern adult abundances and dynamics, we explore the effects of prior thermal environments at fertilization and embryogenesis on thermal performance curves at the end of planktonic development. We factorially manipulate temperatures at fertilization and embryogenesis, then, for each combination of prior temperatures, measure thermal performance curves for survival of planktonic development (end of the larval stage) throughout the performance range. By combining generalized linear mixed modeling with parametric bootstrapping, we formally estimate and compare curve descriptors (thermal optima, limits, and breadth) among prior environments, and reveal carryover effects of temperature at embryogenesis, but not fertilization, on thermal optima at completion of development. Specifically, thermal optima shifted to track temperature during embryogenesis, while thermal limits and breadth remained unchanged. Our results argue that key aspects of thermal performance are shaped by prior thermal environment in early life, warranting further investigation of the possible mechanisms underpinning that response, and closer consideration of thermal carryover effects when predicting organismal responses to climate change.

Thermal limits in the face of infectious disease: How important are pathogens?

The frequency and severity of both extreme thermal events and disease outbreaks are predicted to continue to shift as a consequence of global change. As a result, species persistence will likely be increasingly dependent on the interaction between thermal stress and pathogen exposure. Missing from the intersection between studies of infectious disease and thermal ecology, however, is the capacity for pathogen exposure to directly disrupt a host's ability to cope with thermal stress. Common sources of variation in host thermal performance, which are likely to interact with infection, are also often unaccounted for when assessing either the vulnerability of species or the potential for disease spread during extreme thermal events. Here, we describe how infection can directly alter host thermal limits, to a degree that exceeds the level of variation commonly seen across species large geographic distributions and that equals the detrimental impact of other ecologically relevant stressors. We then discuss various sources of heterogeneity within and between populations that are likely to be important in mediating the impact that infection has on variation in host thermal limits. In doing so we highlight how infection is a widespread and important source of variation in host thermal performance, which will have implications for both the persistence and vulnerability of species and the dynamics and transmission of disease in a more thermally extreme world.

Developmental Temperature Affects Life-History Traits and Heat Tolerance in the Aphid Parasitoid Aphidius colemani

Developmental temperature plays important roles in the expression of insect traits through thermal developmental plasticity. We exposed the aphid parasitoid Aphidius colemani to different temperature regimes (10, 20, or 28 °C) throughout larval development and studied the expression of morphological and physiological traits indicator of fitness and heat tolerance in the adult. We showed that the mass decreased and the surface to volume ratio of parasitoids increased with the development temperature. Water content was not affected by rearing temperature, but parasitoids accumulated more lipids when reared at 20 °C. Egg content was not affected by developmental temperature, but adult survival was better for parasitoids reared at 20 °C. Finally, parasitoids developed at 20 °C showed the highest heat stupor threshold, whereas parasitoids developed at 28 °C showed the highest heat coma threshold (better heat tolerance CTmax1 and CTmax2, respectively), therefore only partly supporting the beneficial acclimation hypothesis. From a fundamental point of view, our study highlights the role of thermal plasticity (adaptive or not) on the expression of different life history traits in insects and the possible correlations that exist between these traits. From an applied perspective, these results are important in the context of biological control through mass release techniques of parasitoids in hot environments.

Thermal limits and preferences of large branchiopods (Branchiopoda: Anostraca and Spinicaudata) from temporary wetland arid zone systems

Large branchiopods are specialist crustaceans adapted for life in temporary, thermally dynamic wetland ecosystems. Certain large branchiopod species are, however, restricted to specific temporary wetland types, exemplified by their physico-chemical and hydroperiod characteristics. Here, we contrasted the thermal preference and critical thermal maxima (CT_max) and minima (CT_min) of southern African anostracans and spinicaudatans found exclusively in either temporary rock-pool or pan wetland types. We hypothesized that environment of origin would be a good predictor of thermal preference and critical thermal limits. To test this, Branchiopodopsis tridens (Anostraca) and Leptestheria brevirostris (Spinicaudata) were collected from rock-pool habitats, while Streptocephalus cafer (Anostraca) and a Gondwanalimnadia sp. (Spinicaudata) were collected from pan habitats. In contrast to our hypothesis, taxonomic relatedness was a better predictor of CT_max and temperature preference than environment of origin. Spinicaudatans were significantly more tolerant of high temperatures than anostracans, with L. brevirostris and Gondwanalimnadia sp. median CT_max values of 45.1 °C and 44.1 °C, respectively, followed by S. cafer (42.8 °C) and B. tridens (41.4 °C). Neither environment or taxonomic relatedness were good predictors of CT_min trends, with B. tridens (0.9 °C) and Gondwanalimnadia sp. (2.1 °C) having the lowest median CT_min values, followed by L. brevirostris (3.4 °C) and S. cafer (3.6 °C). On the contrary, temperature preferences differed according to taxa, with spinicaudatans significantly preferring higher temperatures than anostracans. Leptestheria brevirostris and Gondwanalimnadia sp. both spent most time at temperatures 30-32 °C, S. cafer at 18-20 °C and B. tridens at 21-23 °C. Constrained thermal traits reported here suggest that the studied anostracans might be more susceptible to projected climatic warming than the spinicaudatans, irrespective of habitat type, however, these taxa may also compensate through phenotypic plasticity.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Interactions between developmental and adult acclimation have distinct consequences for heat tolerance and heat stress recovery

Developmental and adult thermal acclimation can have distinct, even opposite, effects on adult heat resistance in ectotherms. Yet, their relative contribution to heat-hardiness of ectotherms remains unclear despite the broad ecological implications thereof. Furthermore, the deterministic relationship between heat knockdown and recovery from heat stress is poorly understood but significant for establishing causal links between climate variability and population dynamics. Here, using Drosophila melanogaster in a full-factorial experimental design, we assessed the heat tolerance of flies in static stress assays, and document how developmental and adult acclimation interact with a distinct pattern to promote survival to heat stress in adults. We show that warmer adult acclimation is the initial factor enhancing survival to constant stressful high temperatures in flies, but also that the interaction between adult and developmental acclimation becomes gradually more important to ensure survival as the stress persists. This provides an important framework revealing the dynamic interplay between these two forms of acclimation that ultimately enhance thermal tolerance as a function of stress duration. Furthermore, by investigating recovery rates post-stress, we also show that the process of heat-hardening and recovery post-heat knockdown are likely to be based on set of (at least partially) divergent mechanisms. This could bear ecological significance as a trade-off may exist between increasing thermal tolerance and maximizing recovery rates post-stress, constraining population responses when exposed to variable and stressful climatic conditions.

Insects and their pathogens in a changing climate

The complex nature of climate change-mediated multitrophic interaction is an underexplored area, but has the potential to dramatically shift transmission and distribution of many insects and their pathogens, placing some populations closer to the brink of extinction. However, for individual insect-pathogen interactions climate change will have complicated hard-to-anticipate impacts. Thus, both pathogen virulence and insect host immunity are intrinsically linked with generalized stress responses, and in both pathogen and host have extensive trade-offs with nutrition (e.g., host plant quality), growth and reproduction. Potentially alleviating or exasperating these impacts, some pathogens and hosts respond genetically and rapidly to environmental shifts. This review identifies many areas for future research including a particular need to identify how altered global warming interacts with other environmental changes and stressors, and how consistent these impacts are across pathogens and hosts. With that achieved we would be closer to producing an overarching framework to integrate knowledge on all environmental interplay and infectious disease events.

Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming

Forecasting which species/ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate warming is essential to guide conservation strategies to minimize extinction. Tropical/mid-latitude species are predicted to be most at risk as they live close to their upper critical thermal limits (CTLs). However, these assessments assume that upper CTL estimates, such as CTmax, are accurate predictors of vulnerability and ignore the potential for evolution to ameliorate temperature increases. Here, we use experimental evolution to assess extinction risk and adaptation in tropical and widespread Drosophila species. We find tropical species succumb to extinction before widespread species. Male fertility thermal limits, which are much lower than CTmax, are better predictors of species' current distributions and extinction in the laboratory. We find little evidence of adaptive responses to warming in any species. These results suggest that species are living closer to their upper thermal limits than currently presumed and evolution/plasticity are unlikely to rescue populations from extinction.

Geographic variation in acclimation responses of thermal tolerance in South African diving beetles (Dytiscidae: Coleoptera)

Understanding sources of variation in animal thermal limits is critical to forecasting ecological responses to climate change. Here, we estimated upper and lower thermal limits, and their capacity to respond to thermal acclimation, in several species and populations of diving beetles (Dytiscidae) from diverse geographic regions representative of variable climate within South Africa. We also considered ecoregions and latitudinal ranges as potential predictors of thermal limits and the plasticity thereof. For upper thermal limits, species showed significant variation and limited acclimation-related plasticity. Lower thermal limits responded to acclimation in some cases and showed marked variation among species that could be explained by taxonomic affiliation and ecoregion. Limited acclimation ability in the species included in this study suggest plasticity of thermal limits will not be a likely buffer for coping with climate change. From the present results for the Dytiscidae of the region, it appears the group may be particularly susceptible to heat and/or drought and may thus serve as useful indicator species of ecosystem change. Understanding how these climate-related impacts play out at different spatial and temporal scales will have profound implications for conservation management and functional responses, especially important in a region already showing a trend for warming and drying.

Time course of acclimation of critical thermal limits in two springtail species (Collembola)

Critical thermal limits are one of the most important sources of information on the possible impacts of climate change on soil microarthropods. The extent of plasticity of tolerance limits can provide valuable insights about the likely responses of ectotherms to environmental change. Although many studies have investigated various aspects of the acclimatory response of thermal limits to temperature changes in arthropods, the number of studies focusing on the temporal dynamics of this plastic response is relatively small. Collembola, one of the key microarthropods groups in almost all soil ecosystems around the world, have been the focus of several thermal acclimation studies. Yet the time course of acclimation and its reversal have not been widely studied in this group. Here we investigated the time course of acclimation of critical thermal maxima (CT_max) and minima (CT_min) of two springtail species. We exposed a Cryptopygus species from temperate southern Australia to high and low temperature conditions and Mucrosomia caeca from Sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island to high temperature conditions. Upper thermal limits in both species were found to be highly constrained, as CT_max did not show substantial response to high and low temperature acclimation both in the Cryptopygus species and M. caeca, whereas CT_min showed significant responses to high and low temperature conditions. The acclimation begins to stabilize in approximately seven days in all treatments except for the acclimation of CT_min under high temperature conditions, where the pattern of change suggests that this acclimation might take longer to be completed. Although reversal of this acclimation also begins to stabilize under 7 days, re-acclimation was relatively slow as we did not observe a very clear settling point in 2 of the 3 re-acclimation treatments. The observed limits on the plasticity of CT_max indicate that both of these species may be very limited in their ability to respond plastically to short-term rapid changes in temperature (i.e temperature extremes).

Heat hardening in a pair of Anolis lizards: constraints, dynamics and ecological consequences

Heat tolerance plasticity is predicted to be an important buffer against global warming. Nonetheless, basal heat tolerance often correlates negatively with tolerance plasticity ('trade-off hypothesis'), a constraint that could limit plasticity benefits. We tested the trade-off hypothesis at the individual level with respect to heat hardening in two lizard species, Anolis carolinensis and Anolis sagrei. Heat hardening is a rapid increase in heat tolerance after heat shock that is rarely measured in reptiles but is generally considered to be a first line of physiological defense against heat. We also employed a biophysical model of operative habitat temperatures to estimate the performance consequences of hardening under ecologically relevant conditions. Anolis carolinensis hardened by 2 h post-heat shock and maintained hardening for several hours. However, A. sagrei did not harden. Biophysical models showed that hardening in A. carolinensis reduces their overheating risk in the field. Therefore, while not all lizards heat harden, hardening has benefits for species that can. We initially found a negative relationship between basal tolerance and hardening within both species, consistent with the trade-off hypothesis. However, permutation analyses showed that the apparent trade-offs could not be differentiated from statistical artifact. We found the same result when we re-analyzed published data supporting the trade-off hypothesis in another lizard species. Our results show that false positives may be common when testing the trade-off hypothesis. Statistical approaches that account for this are critical to ensure that the hypothesis, which has broad implications for thermal adaptation and responses to warming, is assessed appropriately.

Climate vulnerability of South American freshwater fish: Thermal tolerance and acclimation

Freshwater fish are restricted by their physiology to rivers and lakes, and are generally limited in their capacity to disperse across basins. As a result, there is often a close match between the evolutionary history of river basins and their natural history. Thus, the regional landscape and ecological features, such as temperature, have shaped the evolution and adaptation of local fish assemblages. Climate change is expected to affect fish diversity and increase extinction, especially in low latitudes, and it has been suggested that species that inhabit low latitude species are more susceptible since they live close to their maximum thermal limits and have low capacity for acclimation. To understand the mechanisms of variation in thermal tolerance across a broad-scale of South American fishes is fundamental to be able to assess the vulnerability of species and habitat to global warming. Herein, we present the first attempt to analyze the vulnerability of South American freshwater fish species, based on the review of upper thermal limits of 106 species from a broad range of latitudinal habitats. Our findings show that upper thermal limits decrease with latitude, while the thermal safety margin (TSM) increase. Furthermore, the latitude has little effects on the acclimation response ratio, and the TSM decreased with rising temperatures. These data suggest that thermal phenotypic acclimation has low potential for mitigating global warming. These results indicate that South American fish species living in tropical areas are more susceptible to global warming since they are already living close to their maximum habitat temperature.

Survive a Warming Climate: Insect Responses to Extreme High Temperatures

Global change includes a substantial increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperatures (EHTs), which influence insects at almost all levels. The number of studies showing the ecological importance of EHTs has risen in recent years, but the knowledge is rather dispersed in the contemporary literature. In this article, we review the biological and ecological effects of EHTs actually experienced in the field, i.e., when coupled to fluctuating thermal regimes. First, we characterize EHTs in the field. Then, we summarize the impacts of EHTs on insects at various levels and the processes allowing insects to buffer EHTs. Finally, we argue that the mechanisms leading to positive or negative impacts of EHTs on insects can only be resolved from integrative approaches considering natural thermal regimes. Thermal extremes, perhaps more than the gradual increase in mean temperature, drive insect responses to climate change, with crucial impacts on pest management and biodiversity conservation.

Short communication: Context matters: Adult size is contingent on embryonic temperature in Drosophila melanogaster

Temperature is a critical factor in shaping ectothermic development. Developmental temperature may constrain, alter, or redirect phenotypes expressed later in life. Recent studies have begun to analyze the consequences of mismatches between developmental and adult environments. Few studies analyze the consequences environmental mismatches during development yield on adult phenotypes. The aim of this study was to determine how mismatched temperatures during development affect adult size in Drosophila melanogaster. We employed a full factorial design in which eggs were incubated for 24 h in one of two temperature treatments (18 °C or 28 °C) with half of the flies subsequently being switched to the opposite temperature treatment for the remainder of development. We measured body size shortly after eclosure. We found that variation in size after eclosure was contingent upon the temperature during the embryo stage. Flies reared initially in 18 °C eclosed larger regardless of the subsequent temperature until eclsoure. Flies reared initially in 28 °C, however, eclosed smaller only if they remained in 28 °C until eclosure. The degree of plasticity in size was therefore contingent upon temperature during the embryo stage. We discuss the implications of employing full factorial approaches to consider the full context of phenotypic outcomes in light of changing developmental environments.

Implications of increasing temperature stress for predatory biocontrol of vector mosquitoes

BACKGROUND

Predators play a critical role in regulating larval mosquito prey populations in aquatic habitats. Understanding predator-prey responses to climate change-induced environmental perturbations may foster optimal efficacy in vector reduction. However, organisms may differentially respond to heterogeneous thermal environments, potentially destabilizing predator-prey trophic systems.

METHODS

Here, we explored the critical thermal limits of activity (CTLs; critical thermal-maxima [CTmax] and minima [CTmin]) of key predator-prey species. We concurrently examined CTL asynchrony of two notonectid predators (Anisops sardea and Enithares chinai) and one copepod predator (Lovenula falcifera) as well as larvae of three vector mosquito species, Aedes aegypti, Anopheles quadriannulatus and Culex pipiens, across instar stages (early, 1st; intermediate, 2nd/3rd; late, 4th).

RESULTS

Overall, predators and prey differed significantly in CTmax and CTmin. Predators generally had lower CTLs than mosquito prey, dependent on prey instar stage and species, with first instars having the lowest CTmax (lowest warm tolerance), but also the lowest CTmin (highest cold tolerance). For predators, L. falcifera exhibited the narrowest CTLs overall, with E. chinai having the widest and A. sardea intermediate CTLs, respectively. Among prey species, the global invader Ae. aegypti consistently exhibited the highest CTmax, whilst differences among CTmin were inconsistent among prey species according to instar stage.

CONCLUSION

These results point to significant predator-prey mismatches under environmental change, potentially adversely affecting natural mosquito biocontrol given projected shifts in temperature fluctuations in the study region. The overall narrower thermal breadth of native predators relative to larval mosquito prey may reduce natural biotic resistance to pests and harmful mosquito species, with implications for population success and potentially vector capacity under global change.