Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy

No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups

In ectotherms, the performance of physiological, ecological and life-history traits universally increases with temperature to a maximum before decreasing again. Identifying the most appropriate thermal performance model for a specific trait type has broad applications, from metabolic modelling at the cellular level to forecasting the effects of climate change on population, ecosystem and disease transmission dynamics. To date, numerous mathematical models have been designed, but a thorough comparison among them is lacking. In particular, we do not know if certain models consistently outperform others and how factors such as sampling resolution and trait or organismal identity influence model performance. To fill this knowledge gap, we compile 2,739 thermal performance datasets from diverse traits and taxa, to which we fit a comprehensive set of 83 existing mathematical models. We detect remarkable variation in model performance that is not primarily driven by sampling resolution, trait type, or taxonomic information. Our results reveal a surprising lack of well-defined scenarios in which certain models are more appropriate than others. To aid researchers in selecting the appropriate set of models for any given dataset or research objective, we derive a classification of the 83 models based on the average similarity of their fits.

Predicted short-term mesoscavenger release gives way to apex-scavenger dominance

Vultures play a crucial role in scavenging communities as apex scavengers. Scavenging communities in turn are a key component of terrestrial ecosystems, ensuring that dead biomass is removed quickly and efficiently. Anthropogenic disturbances, particularly mass poisonings, have caused crashes in vulture populations in Africa and Asia. We ask if vultures can re-establish themselves in a scavenging community from a point of near extirpation. To allow for maximum knowledge transfer across ecosystems, we focus on an ecosystem that is otherwise considered pristine. We chose Kruger National Park (KNP), a well-documented African scavenging community, as our focal ecosystem and parameterised a mathematical model of scavenging-community dynamics using field data from the park. We predicted the upper limit of vulture population size in an ecosystem like KNP. We then analysed vultures' path to recovery, using this empirically parameterised scavenging-community model. We used perturbation methods to determine how parameter values that may be specific to KNP influence our predictions. Comparisons of predicted vulture carrying capacity with recent population estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of human activities on vulture abundance is larger than previously believed. Our analysis shows that vulture populations can reach their carrying capacity approximately five decades after a poisoning event that would almost extirpate the population. Over shorter time scales, we predict a decade of enhanced mammal abundance (i.e. mesoscavenger release) before the mammals are excluded from the scavenging community. In our study system, jackals and hyenas are the mammalian groups predicted to benefit from the absence of vultures. However, neither group removes biomass as efficiently as vultures and animal carcasses are predicted to accumulate in the ecosystem while the vulture population recovers. In our framework, the carrying capacity for vulture populations is determined by carcass availability. As evidence for an alternative regulating factor is lacking, we conclude that present-day vulture population densities are orders of magnitude below their upper limits. Our results therefore suggest that with a recovery plan in place, the long-term prospects for vulture species and the associated ecosystems are positive.

A flexible model for thermal performance curves

Temperature responses of many biological traits-including population growth, survival, and development-are described by thermal performance curves (TPCs) with phenomenological models like the Briere function or mechanistic models related to chemical kinetics. Existing TPC models are either simple but inflexible in shape, or flexible yet difficult to interpret in biological terms. Here we present flexTPC: a model that is parameterized exclusively in terms of biologically interpretable quantities, including the thermal minimum, optimum, and maximum, and the maximum trait value. FlexTPC can describe unimodal temperature responses of any skewness and thermal breadth, enabling direct comparisons across populations, traits, or taxa with a single model. We apply flexTPC to various microbial and entomological datasets, compare results with the Briere model, and find that flexTPC often has better predictive performance. The interpretability of flexTPC makes it ideal for modeling how thermal responses change with ecological stressors or evolve over time.

Ecological roles and importance of sharks in the Anthropocene Ocean

In ecosystems, sharks can be predators, competitors, facilitators, nutrient transporters, and food. However, overfishing and other threats have greatly reduced shark populations, altering their roles and effects on ecosystems. We review these changes and implications for ecosystem function and management. Macropredatory sharks are often disproportionately affected by humans but can influence prey and coastal ecosystems, including facilitating carbon sequestration. Like terrestrial predators, sharks may be crucial to ecosystem functioning under climate change. However, large ecosystem effects of sharks are not ubiquitous. Increasing human uses of oceans are changing shark roles, necessitating management consideration. Rebuilding key populations and incorporating shark ecological roles, including less obvious ones, into management efforts are critical for retaining sharks' functional value. Coupled social-ecological frameworks can facilitate these efforts.

Environmental warming increases the importance of high-turnover energy channels in stream food webs

Warming temperatures are altering communities and trophic networks across Earth's ecosystems. While the overall influence of warming on food webs is often context-dependent, increasing temperatures are predicted to change communities in two fundamental ways: (1) by reducing average body size and (2) by increasing individual metabolic rates. These warming-induced changes have the potential to influence the distribution of food web fluxes, food web stability, and the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic ecological processes shaping community assembly. Here, we quantified patterns and the relative distribution of organic matter fluxes through stream food webs spanning a broad natural temperature gradient (5-27°C). We then related these patterns to species and community trait distributions of mean body size and population biomass turnover (P:B) within and across streams. We predicted that (1) communities in warmer streams would exhibit smaller body size and higher P:B and (2) organic matter fluxes within warmer communities would increasingly skew toward smaller, higher P:B populations. Across the temperature gradient, warmer communities were characterized by smaller body size (~9% per °C) and higher P:B (~7% faster turnover per °C) populations on average. Additionally, organic matter fluxes within warmer streams were increasingly skewed toward higher P:B populations, demonstrating that warming can restructure organic matter fluxes in both an absolute and relative sense. With warming, the relative distribution of organic matter fluxes was decreasingly likely to arise through the random sorting of species, suggesting stronger selection for traits driving high turnover with increasing temperature. Our study suggests that a warming world will favor energy fluxes through "smaller and faster" populations, and that these changes may be more predictable than previously thought.

A framework for understanding climate change impacts through non-compensatory intra- and interspecific climate change responses

Understanding and predicting population responses to climate change is a crucial challenge. A key component of population responses to climate change are cases in which focal biological rates (e.g., population growth rates) change in response to climate change due to non-compensatory effects of changes in the underlying components (e.g., birth and death rates) determining the focal rates. We refer to these responses as non-compensatory climate change effects. As differential responses of biological rates to climate change have been documented in a variety of systems and arise at multiple levels of organization within and across species, non-compensatory effects may be nearly ubiquitous. Yet, how non-compensatory climate change responses combine and scale to influence the demographics of populations is often unclear and requires mapping them to the birth and death rates underlying population change. We provide a flexible framework for incorporating non-compensatory changes in upstream rates within and among species and mapping their consequences for additional downstream rates across scales to their eventual effects on population growth rates. Throughout, we provide specific examples and potential applications of the framework. We hope this framework helps to enhance our understanding of and unify research on population responses to climate change.

Metabolic plasticity drives mismatches in physiological traits between prey and predator

Metabolic rate, the rate of energy use, underpins key ecological traits of organisms, from development and locomotion to interaction rates between individuals. In a warming world, the temperature-dependence of metabolic rate is anticipated to shift predator-prey dynamics. Yet, there is little real-world evidence on the effects of warming on trophic interactions. We measured the respiration rates of aquatic larvae of three insect species from populations experiencing a natural temperature gradient in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Using a mechanistic model we predicted the effects of warming on these taxa's predator-prey interaction rates. We found that species-specific differences in metabolic plasticity lead to mismatches in the temperature-dependence of their relative velocities, resulting in altered predator-prey interaction rates. This study underscores the role of metabolic plasticity at the species level in modifying trophic interactions and proposes a mechanistic modelling approach that allows an efficient, high-throughput estimation of climate change threats across species pairs.

Is thermal sensitivity affected by predation risk? A case study in tadpoles from ephemeral environments

Changes in environmental temperature may induce variations in thermal tolerance and sensitivity in ectotherm organisms. These variations generate plastic responses that can be analyzed by examining their Thermal Performance Curves (TPCs). Additionally, some performance traits, like locomotion, could be affected by other factors such as biological interactions (e.g., predator-prey interaction). Here, we evaluate if the risk of predation modifies TPCs in Mendoza four-eyed frog (Pleurodema nebulosum, Burmeister, 1861) and Guayapa's four-eyed frog (Pleurodema guayapae, Barrio, 1964), two amphibian species that occur in ephemeral ponds in arid environments. We measured thermal tolerances and maximum swimming velocity at six different temperatures in tadpoles under three situations: control, exposure to predator chemical cues, and exposure to conspecific alarm cues. TPCs were fitted using General Additive Mixed Models. We found that curves of tadpoles at risk of predation differed from those of control mainly in thermal sensitivity parameters. Our work confirms the importance of biotic interactions have in thermal physiology.

Habitat-specific impacts of climate change on the trophic demand of a marine predator

Metabolic ecology predicts that ectotherm metabolic rates, and thus consumption rates, will increase with body size and temperature. Predicted climatic increases in temperature are likely to increase the consumption rates of ectothermic predators; however, the ecological impact of these increases will partly depend on whether prey productivity changes with temperature at a similar rate. Furthermore, total predator consumption and prey productivity will depend on species abundances that vary across habitat types. Here we combine energetics and biotelemetry to measure consumption rates in a critically endangered coral reef predator, the Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), in The Bahamas. We estimate that, at present, the Nassau grouper needs to consume 2.2% ± 1.0% body weight day-1 , but this could increase up to 24% with a predicted 3.1°C increase in ocean temperature by the end of the century. We then used surveys of prey communities in two major reef habitat types (Orbicella reef and Gorgonian plain), to predict the proportion of prey productivity consumed by grouper and how this varied by habitat with changing climates. We found that at present, the predicted proportion of prey productivity consumed by Nassau grouper decreased with increasing prey productivity and averaged 1.2% across all habitats, with a greater proportion of prey productivity consumed (maximum of 5%) in Gorgonian plain habitats. However, because temperature increases consumption rates faster than prey productivity, the proportion of prey productivity consumed in a Gorgonian plain habitat could increase up to 24% under future climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that increasing ocean temperatures will lead to significant energetic challenges for the Nassau grouper because of differential impacts within reef food webs, but the magnitude of these impacts will probably vary across prey productivity gradients.

Hotter is not (always) better: Embracing unimodal scaling of biological rates with temperature

Rate-temperature scaling relationships have fascinated biologists for nearly two centuries and are increasingly important in our era of global climate change. These relationships are hypothesized to originate from the temperature-dependent kinetics of rate-limiting biochemical reactions of metabolism. Several prominent theories have formalized this hypothesis using the Arrhenius model, which characterizes a monotonic temperature dependence using an activation energy E. However, the ubiquitous unimodal nature of biological temperature responses presents important theoretical, methodological, and conceptual challenges that restrict the promise for insight, prediction, and progress. Here we review the development of key hypotheses and methods for the temperature-scaling of biological rates. Using simulations, we examine the constraints of monotonic models, illustrating their sensitivity to data nuances such as temperature range and noise, and their tendency to yield variable and underestimated E, with critical consequences for climate change predictions. We also evaluate the behaviour of two prominent unimodal models when applied to incomplete and noisy datasets. We conclude with recommendations for resolving these challenges in future research, and advocate for a shift to unimodal models that better characterize the full range of biological temperature responses.

Optimizing nitrogen application position to change root distribution in soil and regulate maize growth and yield formation in a wide-narrow row cropping system: pot and field experiments

The wide-and narrow-row cropping technology used for maize has the advantages of protecting cultivated soil and improving the population structure in maize fields. However, the relationship between nitrogen application position and root interactions has not been determined. Through pot and field experiments, we evaluated the effects of two nitrogen application positions ((narrow row nitrogen application (RC) and wide row nitrogen application (RN)) and two nitrogen application regimens ((high nitrogen(HN) and low nitrogen(LN)) on root growth and yield composition of wide-narrow row maize during the flowering and harvest stages. In field experiments, RC increased the biomass, length and surface area of competing roots (narrow-row roots, CR) at the flowering stage. The yield and agronomic efficiency of N(AEN) and partial factor productivity of N(PFPN) were increased by RN compared to RC under HN, However, the AEN under LN was significantly lower; There was no significant effect on maize growth and biomass allocation at the same level of application of N. At the flowering stage, the results of CR and non-competing roots (wide-row roots, NCR) was consistent under pot experiments and the field experiments, and the yield under RN was also higher than that under RC, although the difference was not significant. Furthermore, according to the principal component analysis and correlation analysis, the competing roots were the main factor influencing yield and AEN. In conclusion, our study showed that RN is a useful fertilization method to improve overall productivity. All in all, how roots coordinate neighbors and nitrogen spatial heterogeneity is a complex ecological process, and its trophic behavior deserves further study.

Warming and top-down control of stage-structured prey: Linking theory to patterns in natural systems

Warming has broad and often nonlinear impacts on organismal physiology and traits, allowing it to impact species interactions like predation through a variety of pathways that may be difficult to predict. Predictions are commonly based on short-term experiments and models, and these studies often yield conflicting results depending on the environmental context, spatiotemporal scale, and the predator and prey species considered. Thus, the accuracy of predicted changes in interaction strength, and their importance to the broader ecosystems they take place in, remain unclear. Here, we attempted to link one such set of predictions generated using theory, modeling, and controlled experiments to patterns in the natural abundance of prey across a broad thermal gradient. To do so, we first predicted how warming would impact a stage-structured predator-prey interaction in riverine rock pools between Pantala spp. dragonfly nymph predators and Aedes atropalpus mosquito larval prey. We then described temperature variation across a set of hundreds of riverine rock pools (n = 775) and leveraged this natural gradient to look for evidence for or against our model's predictions. Our model's predictions suggested that warming should weaken predator control of mosquito larval prey by accelerating their development and shrinking the window of time during which aquatic dragonfly nymphs could consume them. This was consistent with data collected in rock pool ecosystems, where the negative effects of dragonfly nymph predators on mosquito larval abundance were weaker in warmer pools. Our findings provide additional evidence to substantiate our model-derived predictions while emphasizing the importance of assessing similar predictions using natural gradients of temperature whenever possible.

Body size and trophic position determine the outcomes of species invasions along temperature and productivity gradients

Species invasions are predicted to increase in frequency with global change, but quantitative predictions of how environmental filters and species traits influence the success and consequences of invasions for local communities are lacking. Here we investigate how invaders alter the structure, diversity and stability regime of simple communities across environmental gradients (habitat productivity, temperature) and community size structure. We simulate all three-species trophic modules (apparent and exploitative competition, trophic chain and intraguild predation). We predict that invasions most often succeed in warm and productive habitats and that successful invaders include smaller competitors, intraguild predators and comparatively small top predators. This suggests that species invasions and global change may facilitate the downsizing of food webs. Furthermore, we show that successful invasions leading to species substitutions rarely alter system stability, while invasions leading to increased diversity can destabilize or stabilize community dynamics depending on the environmental conditions and invader's trophic position.

Terrestrial amphibians respond to rapidly changing temperatures with individual plasticity of exploratory behaviour

Terrestrial ectotherms react to acute changes in environmental temperatures by adjusting their behaviour. Evaluating the adaptive potential of these behavioural adjustments requires information on their repeatability and plasticity. We examined behavioural response (exploration) to acute temperature change in two amphibian taxa, alpine (Ichthyosaura alpestris) and smooth (Lissotriton vulgaris) newts. These responses were investigated at both population and individual levels under multiple thermal contexts (dimensions), represented by the direction and range of changing temperature and rearing thermal regimes. Population-level analyses showed species-specific, non-additive effects of direction and range of temperature change on acute thermal reaction norms for exploration, but explained only a low amount (7-23%) of total variation in exploration. In contrast, within- and among-individual variation in acute thermal reaction norm parameters explained 42-50% of total variation in the examined trait. Although immediate thermal responses varied among individuals (repeatability = 0.07 to 0.53), they were largely shaped by environmental contexts during repeated trials. We conclude that these amphibians respond to acute temperature change through individual plasticity of behavioural traits. A repeated-measures approach under multiple thermal contexts will be needed to identify the selective and plastic potential of behavioural responses used by juvenile newts and perhaps other ectotherm taxa to cope with rapidly changing environmental temperatures.

Increasing ambient temperatures trigger shifts in activity patterns and temporal partitioning in a large carnivore guild

Shifts in species' interactions are implicated as an important proximate cause underpinning climate-change-related extinction. However, there is little empirical evidence on the pathways through which climate conditions, such as ambient temperature, impact community dynamics. The timing of activities is a widespread behavioural adaptation to environmental variability, and temporal partitioning is a key mechanism that facilitates coexistence, especially within large carnivore communities. We investigated temperature impacts on community dynamics through its influence on the diel activity of, and temporal partitioning amongst, four sympatric species of African large carnivores: lions (Panthera leo), leopards (Panthera pardus), cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) and African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus). Activity of all species was shaped by a combination of light availability and temperature, with most species becoming more nocturnal and decreasing activity levels with increasing temperatures. A nocturnal shift was most pronounced in cheetahs, the most diurnal species during median temperatures. This shift increased temporal overlap between cheetahs and other carnivore species by up to 15.92%, highlighting the importance of considering the responses of interacting sympatric species when inferring climate impacts on ecosystems. Our study provides evidence that temperature can significantly affect temporal partitioning within a carnivore guild by generating asymmetrical behavioural responses amongst functionally similar species.

Temperature and predators as interactive drivers of community properties

The effects of warming on ecological communities emerge from a range of potentially asymmetric impacts on individual physiology and development. Understanding these responses, however, is limited by our ability to connect mechanisms or emergent patterns across the many processes that drive variation in demography. Further complicating this understanding is the gain or loss of predators to many communities, which may interact with changes in temperature to drive community change. Here we conducted a factorial warming and predation experiment to test generalized predictions about responses to warming. We used microcosms with a range of protists, rotifers, and a gastrotrich, with and without the predator Actinosphaerium, to assess changes in diversity, body size, function, and composition in response to warming. We find that community respiration and predator:prey biovolume ratios peak at intermediate temperatures, while species richness declined with temperature. We also found that overall biomass increased with species richness, driven by the effect of temperature on richness. There was little evidence of an interaction between predation and temperature change, likely because the predator was mostly limited to the intermediate temperatures. Overall, our results suggest that general predictions about community change are still challenging to make but may benefit by considering multiple dimensions of community patterns in an integrated way.

High temperatures augment inhibition of parasites by a honey bee gut symbiont

Temperature affects growth, metabolism, and interspecific interactions in microbial communities. Within animal hosts, gut bacterial symbionts can provide resistance to parasitic infections. Both infection and populations of symbionts can be shaped by the host body temperature. However, the effects of temperature on the antiparasitic activities of gut symbionts have seldom been explored. The Lactobacillus-rich gut microbiota of facultatively endothermic honey bees is subject to seasonal and ontogenetic changes in host temperature that could alter the effects of symbionts against parasites. We used cell cultures of a Lactobacillus symbiont and an important trypanosomatid gut parasite of honey bees to test the potential for temperature to shape parasite-symbiont interactions. We found that symbionts showed greater heat tolerance than parasites and chemically inhibited parasite growth via production of acids. Acceleration of symbiont growth and acid production at high temperatures resulted in progressively stronger antiparasitic effects across a temperature range typical of bee colonies. Consequently, the presence of symbionts reduced both the peak growth rate and heat tolerance of parasites. Substantial changes in parasite-symbiont interactions were evident over a temperature breadth that parallels changes in diverse animals exhibiting infection-related fevers and the amplitude of circadian temperature variation typical of endothermic birds and mammals, implying the frequent potential for temperature to alter symbiont-mediated resistance to parasites in endo- and ectothermic hosts. Results suggest that the endothermic behavior of honey bees could enhance the impacts of gut symbionts on parasites, implicating thermoregulation as a reinforcer of core symbioses and possibly microbiome-mediated antiparasitic defense. IMPORTANCE Two factors that shape the resistance of animals to infection are body temperature and gut microbiota. However, temperature can also alter interactions among microbes, raising the question of whether and how temperature changes the antiparasitic effects of gut microbiota. Honey bees are agriculturally important hosts of diverse parasites and infection-mitigating gut microbes. They can also socially regulate their body temperatures to an extent unusual for an insect. We show that high temperatures found in honey bee colonies augment the ability of a gut bacterial symbiont to inhibit the growth of a common bee parasite, reducing the parasite's ability to grow at high temperatures. This suggests that fluctuations in colony and body temperatures across life stages and seasons could alter the protective value of bees' gut microbiota against parasites, and that temperature-driven changes in gut microbiota could be an underappreciated mechanism by which temperature-including endothermy and fever-alters animal infection.

Landscape resistance index aiming at functional forest connectivity

Resistance models may quantify the ability of the landscape to impede species' movement and represent suitable habitats. Moreover, the performance of resistance models parameterized by land-use/land cover attributes evidence that the integrity of the environments subject to urban sprawl is poorly understood. In this sense, the study assumed we could identify the forest functional connectivity in a landscape considering the disparity in the landscape mosaic. In this context, we sought to develop a landscape resistance index through structural equation modeling (SEM), supported by the criteria of heat emission, biomass, and anthropogenic barriers, obtained by remote sensing, called observed variables. The landscape studied in the Green Belt Biosphere Reserve of São Paulo has significant remnants of the Atlantic Forest, a biodiversity hotspot. However, our results indicated criteria variability in the landscape modeled through the SEM, obtaining a significant adjustment of the landscape resistance index, with comparative fit index (CFI) of 1.00 and root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) of 0.00. The index reflects the resistance levels of the land use/land cover, expressed by the class interval, ranging from 0% (1.73) to 100% (493.88), with the highest values associated with the anthropized uses and forest isolation. Thus, our index based on environmental attributes reflects the structure of functional forest connectivity and offers a framework to design forest corridors across landscapes.

Mean species responses predict effects of environmental change on coexistence

Environmental change research is plagued by the curse of dimensionality: the number of communities at risk and the number of environmental drivers are both large. This raises the pressing question if a general understanding of ecological effects is achievable. Here, we show evidence that this is indeed possible. Using theoretical and simulation-based evidence for bi- and tritrophic communities, we show that environmental change effects on coexistence are proportional to mean species responses and depend on how trophic levels on average interact prior to environmental change. We then benchmark our findings using relevant cases of environmental change, showing that means of temperature optima and of species sensitivities to pollution predict concomitant effects on coexistence. Finally, we demonstrate how to apply our theory to the analysis of field data, finding support for effects of land use change on coexistence in natural invertebrate communities.

Phenotypic response to different predator strategies can be mediated by temperature

Temperature change affects biological systems in multifaceted ways, including the alteration of species interaction strengths, with implications for the stability of populations and communities. Temperature-dependent changes to antipredatory responses are an emerging mechanism of destabilization and thus there is a need to understand how prey species respond to predation pressures in the face of changing temperatures. Here, using ciliate protozoans, we assess whether temperature can alter the strength of phenotypic antipredator responses in a prey species and whether this relationship depends on the predator's hunting behavior. We exposed populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum to either (i) a sit-and-wait generalist predator (Homalozoon vermiculare) or (ii) a specialized active swimmer predator (Didinium nasutum) across two different temperature regimes (15 and 25°C) to quantify the temperature dependence of antipredator responses over a 24-h period. We utilized a novel high-throughput automated robotic monitoring system to track changes in the behavior (swimming speed) and morphology (cell size) of P. caudatum at frequencies and resolutions previously unachievable by manual sampling. The change in swimming speed through the 24 h differed between the two temperatures but was not altered by the presence of the predators. In contrast, P. caudatum showed a substantial temperature-dependent morphological response to the presence of D. nasutum (but not H. vermiculare), changing cell shape toward a more elongated morph at 15°C (but not at 25°C). Our findings suggest that temperature can have strong effects on prey morphological responses to predator presence, but that this response is potentially dependent on the predator's feeding strategy. This suggests that greater consideration of synergistic antipredator behavioral and physiological responses is required in species and communities subject to environmental changes.

Eco-evolution from deep time to contemporary dynamics: The role of timescales and rate modulators

Eco-evolutionary dynamics, or eco-evolution for short, are often thought to involve rapid demography (ecology) and equally rapid heritable phenotypic changes (evolution) leading to novel, emergent system behaviours. We argue that this focus on contemporary dynamics is too narrow: Eco-evolution should be extended, first, beyond pure demography to include all environmental dimensions and, second, to include slow eco-evolution which unfolds over thousands or millions of years. This extension allows us to conceptualise biological systems as occupying a two-dimensional time space along axes that capture the speed of ecology and evolution. Using Hutchinson's analogy: Time is the 'theatre' in which ecology and evolution are two interacting 'players'. Eco-evolutionary systems are therefore dynamic: We identify modulators of ecological and evolutionary rates, like temperature or sensitivity to mutation, which can change the speed of ecology and evolution, and hence impact eco-evolution. Environmental change may synchronise the speed of ecology and evolution via these rate modulators, increasing the occurrence of eco-evolution and emergent system behaviours. This represents substantial challenges for prediction, especially in the context of global change. Our perspective attempts to integrate ecology and evolution across disciplines, from gene-regulatory networks to geomorphology and across timescales, from today to deep time.

Thermal dependence of Daphnia life history reveals asymmetries between key vital rates

Temperature variation affects virtually every aspect of ectotherms' ecological performance, such as their foraging rate, reproduction, and survival. Although these changes influence what happens at higher levels of organizations, such as populations and communities, qualitative changes in dynamics usually require some degree of asymmetry between key vital rates, i.e. that different vital rates, such as growth, development, fecundity and mortality rates, respond differently to temperature. In order to identify possible asymmetries among vital rates and/or life stages, we characterized the thermal response of individuals a clone of Daphnia sinensis, drawn from a high-mountain environment in Taiwan, and examined the temperature dependence of growth, maturation, reproduction, and mortality rates, as well as fitness measures (r and R₀) at eight temperatures. Daphnia sinensis was able to maintain reproductive success over a broad range of temperatures, much wider than the one experienced in its environment. However, negative effects of temperature were perceptible at temperatures much lower than the highest one at which they can achieve reproductive success. Adult mortality greatly increased for temperatures above 23 °C, and other vital rates started to decelerate, resulting in a large drop in lifetime reproductive success. This finding implies that D. sinensis may be able to persist over a wide range of temperatures, but also that it may become more sensitive to the detrimental effect of species interactions at increased temperatures. Different vital rates responded relatively similarly at low temperatures, but the degree of asymmetry among these rates was much more pronounced at higher temperatures. In particular, rates associated with adult performance decelerated more strongly than juveniles' rates. These findings indicate that elevated temperatures affect the balance between juvenile and adult performance, which is known to have a crucial role in Daphnia population dynamics. We discuss the implications of these results for the dynamics of structured populations.

A difference in larval mosquito size allows a biocontrol agent to target the invasive species

As the global temperature rises in the coming decades, Aedes albopictus is expected to invade and establish in South East England, where Culex pipiens is currently the most common native mosquito species. Biocontrol measures that use local cyclopoid copepods against Ae. albopictus may be compromised if the copepods prefer alternate Cx. pipiens prey. In this study, I assessed the predation efficiency of Megacyclops viridis copepods against Ae. albopictus larvae from France and larvae that hatched from egg rafts of Cx. pipiens collected in South East England. The experiments were conducted at 15 and 25°C, which are representative of present and future summer temperatures in South East England. Ae. albopictus larvae that survived the course of the experiment in the predator-absent controls were significantly smaller than Cx. pipiens larvae that survived in the absence of predation. The background mortality of Cx. pipiens larvae increased with the 10-degree increase in temperature, and the smaller size of surviving Cx. pipiens larvae at 25°C, relative to survivors at 15°C, suggests that larger Cx. pipiens larvae were more likely to die at the higher temperature setting. Across all experimental treatments, the ratio of copepod body length to mean prey length, based on larval lengths of survivors from the corresponding predator-absent controls, was a significant predictor of the copepod's predation efficiency. Adding temperature setting to the predation efficiency model as a predictor did not improve model fit. Within the mixed prey treatments, the predation efficiency of M. viridis was 34.5 percentage points higher against Ae. albopictus prey than against Cx. pipiens prey. The higher predation efficiency that M. viridis exhibited against invasive Ae. albopictus prey, likely due to the smaller size of these larvae, supports the future use of M. viridis as a biocontrol agent in the United Kingdom.

Mutualisms in a warming world

Predicting the impacts of global warming on mutualisms poses a significant challenge given the functional and life history differences that usually exist among interacting species. However, this is a critical endeavour since virtually all species on Earth depend on other species for survival and/or reproduction. The field of thermal ecology can provide physiological and mechanistic insights, as well as quantitative tools, for addressing this challenge. Here, we develop a conceptual and quantitative framework that connects thermal physiology to species' traits, species' traits to interacting mutualists' traits and interacting traits to the mutualism. We first identify the functioning of reciprocal mutualism-relevant traits in diverse systems as the key temperature-dependent mechanisms driving the interaction. We then develop metrics that measure the thermal performance of interacting mutualists' traits and that approximate the thermal performance of the mutualism itself. This integrated approach allows us to additionally examine how warming might interact with resource/nutrient availability and affect mutualistic species' associations across space and time. We offer this framework as a synthesis of convergent and critical issues in mutualism science in a changing world, and as a baseline to which other ecological complexities and scales might be added.

Thermal mismatches explain consumer-resource dynamics in response to environmental warming

Changing temperatures will impact food webs in ways we yet to fully understand. The thermal sensitivities of various physiological and ecological processes differ across organisms and study systems, hindering the generation of accurate predictions. One step towards improving this picture is to acquire a mechanistic understanding of how temperature change impacts trophic interactions before we can scale these insights up to food webs and ecosystems. Here, we implement a mechanistic approach centered on the thermal sensitivity of energetic balances in pairwise consumer-resource interactions, measuring the thermal dependence of energetic gain and loss for two resource and one consumer freshwater species. Quantifying the balance between energy gain and loss, we determined the temperature ranges where the balance decreased for each species in isolation (intraspecific thermal mismatch) and where a mismatch in the balance between consumer and resource species emerged (interspecific thermal mismatch). The latter reveals the temperatures for which consumer and resource energetic balances respond either differently or in the same way, which in turn informs us of the strength of top-down control. We found that warming improved the energetic balance for both resources, but reduces it for the consumer, due to the stronger thermal sensitivity of respiration compared to ingestion. The interspecific thermal mismatch yielded different patterns between the two consumer-resource pairs. In one case, the consumer-resource energetic balance became weaker throughout the temperature gradient, and in the other case it produced a U-shaped response. By also measuring interaction strength for these interaction pairs, we demonstrated the correspondence of interspecific thermal mismatches and interaction strength. Our approach accounts for the energetic traits of both consumer and resource species, which combined produce a good indication of the thermal sensitivity of interaction strength. Thus, this novel approach links thermal ecology with parameters typically explored in food-web studies.

When death comes: linking predator-prey activity patterns to timing of mortality to understand predation risk

The assumption that activity and foraging are risky for prey underlies many predator-prey theories and has led to the use of predator-prey activity overlap as a proxy of predation risk. However, the simultaneous measures of prey and predator activity along with timing of predation required to test this assumption have not been available. Here, we used accelerometry data on snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) to determine activity patterns of prey and predators and match these to precise timing of predation. Surprisingly we found that lynx kills of hares were as likely to occur during the day when hares were inactive as at night when hares were active. We also found that activity rates of hares were not related to the chance of predation at daily and weekly scales, whereas lynx activity rates positively affected the diel pattern of lynx predation on hares and their weekly kill rates of hares. Our findings suggest that predator-prey diel activity overlap may not always be a good proxy of predation risk, and highlight a need for examining the link between predation and spatio-temporal behaviour of predator and prey to improve our understanding of how predator-prey behavioural interactions drive predation risk.

Mismatches in thermal performance between ectothermic predators and prey alter interaction strength and top-down control

Climate change can alter predator-prey interactions when predators and prey have different thermal preferences as temperature change can exacerbate thermal mismatches (also called thermal asymmetry) with population-level consequences. We tested this using micro-arthropod predators (Stratiolaelaps scimitus) and prey (Folsomia candida) that differ in their temperature optima to examine predator-prey interactions across two temperature ranges, a cool (12 and 20 °C) and warm (20 and 26 °C) range. We predict that the lower thermal preference and optimum in F. candida will alter top-down control (i.e., interaction strength) by predators with interaction strength being strongest at intermediate temperatures, coinciding with F. candida thermal optimum. Predators and prey were placed in mesocosms, whereafter we measured population (predator and prey abundance), trait-based (average predator and prey body mass, and prey body length distribution), and predator-prey indices (predator-prey mass ratio (PPMR), Dynamic Index, and Log Response Ratio) to determine how temperature affected their interactions. Prey populations were the highest at intermediate temperatures (average temperature exposure: 16-23 °C) but declined at warmer temperatures (average temperature exposure: 24.5-26 °C). Predators consistently lowered prey abundances and average prey mass increased when predators were added. Top-down control was the greatest at intermediate temperatures (indicated by Log Response Ratio) when temperatures were near or below the thermal optimum for both species. Temperature-related prey declines negated top-down control under the warmest conditions suggesting that mismatches in thermal performance between predators and their prey will alter the strength and dominance of top-down or bottom-up forces of predator-prey interactions in a warmer world.

Host-driven temperature dependence of Deformed wing virus infection in honey bee pupae

The temperature dependence of infection reflects changes in performance of parasites and hosts. High temperatures often mitigate infection by favoring heat-tolerant hosts over heat-sensitive parasites. Honey bees exhibit endothermic thermoregulation-rare among insects-that can favor resistance to parasites. However, viruses are heavily host-dependent, suggesting that viral infection could be supported-not threatened-by optimum host function. To understand how temperature-driven changes in performance of viruses and hosts shape infection, we compared the temperature dependence of isolated viral enzyme activity, three honey bee traits, and infection of honey bee pupae. Viral enzyme activity varied <2-fold over a > 30 °C interval spanning temperatures typical of ectothermic insects and honey bees. In contrast, honey bee performance peaked at high (≥ 35 °C) temperatures and was highly temperature-sensitive. Although these results suggested that increasing temperature would favor hosts over viruses, the temperature dependence of pupal infection matched that of pupal development, falling only near pupae's upper thermal limits. Our results reflect the host-dependent nature of viruses, suggesting that infection is accelerated-not curtailed-by optimum host function, contradicting predictions based on relative performance of parasites and hosts, and suggesting tradeoffs between infection resistance and host survival that limit the viability of bee 'fever'.

Vulnerability to climate change increases with trophic level in terrestrial organisms

The resilience of ecosystem function under global climate change is governed by individual species vulnerabilities and the functional groups they contribute to (e.g. decomposition, primary production, pollination, primary, secondary and tertiary consumption). Yet it remains unclear whether species that contribute to different functional groups, which underpin ecosystem function, differ in their vulnerability to climate change. We used existing upper thermal limit data across a range of terrestrial species (N = 1701) to calculate species warming margins (degrees distance between a species upper thermal limit and the maximum environmental temperature they inhabit), as a metric of climate change vulnerability. We examined whether species that comprise different functional groups exhibit differential vulnerability to climate change, and if vulnerability trends change across geographic space while considering evolutionary history. Primary producers had the broadest warming margins across the globe (μ = 18.72 °C) and tertiary consumers had the narrowest warming margins (μ = 9.64 °C), where vulnerability tended to increase with trophic level. Warming margins had a nonlinear relationship (second-degree polynomial) with absolute latitude, where warming margins were narrowest at about 33°, and were broader at lower and higher absolute latitudes. Evolutionary history explained significant variation in species warming margins, as did the methodology used to estimate species upper thermal limits. We investigated if variation in body mass across the trophic levels could explain why higher trophic level organisms had narrower warming margins than lower trophic level organisms, however, we did not find support for this hypothesis. This study provides a critical first step in linking individual species vulnerabilities with whole ecosystem responses to climate change.

Environmental refuges from disease in host-parasite interactions under global change

The physiological performance of organisms depends on their environmental context, resulting in performance-response curves along environmental gradients. Parasite performance-response curves are generally expected to be broader than those of their hosts due to shorter generation times and hence faster adaptation. However, certain environmental conditions may limit parasite performance more than that of the host, thereby providing an environmental refuge from disease. Thermal disease refuges have been extensively studied in response to climate warming, but other environmental factors may also provide environmental disease refuges which, in turn, respond to global change. Here, we (1) showcase laboratory and natural examples of refuges from parasites along various environmental gradients, and (2) provide hypotheses on how global environmental change may affect these refuges. We strive to synthesize knowledge on potential environmental disease refuges along different environmental gradients including salinity and nutrients, in both natural and food-production systems. Although scaling up from single host-parasite relationships along one environmental gradient to their interaction outcome in the full complexity of natural environments remains difficult, integrating host and parasite performance-response can serve to formulate testable hypotheses about the variability in parasitism outcomes and the occurrence of environmental disease refuges under current and future environmental conditions.

Do predator (Mystus gulio) and prey (Penaeus monodon) have differential response against heatwaves? Unveiling through oxidative stress biomarkers and thermal tolerance estimation

Extreme climatic events such as heatwaves are anticipated to intensify in future and impose additional thermal stress to aquatic animals. Knowledge regarding an organism's thermal tolerance or sensitivity is therefore important in determining the effects of fluctuating water temperature on physiological responses. Thus, thermal tolerance tests can serve as a first step in understanding the present and future effects of climate warming. Climatic variability will alter prey-predator attributes differentially and impact their subsequent interactions. The key objective of this study was to compare and decode the stress responses, resistance and vulnerability of two economically important species from Sundarbans estuarine system- Penaeus monodon (prey) and Mystus gulio (predator) subjected to acute thermal challenges such as sudden heatwaves. Both the species were subjected to an increasing thermal ramp of 1°C h^-1 from 22°C to 42°C. Organisms were observed continuously throughout the ramping period and changes in the locomotory behaviour were followed until their loss of equilibrium. The digestive tissue samples were dissected out from both M. gulio and P. monodon at every 2°C and also after a recovery period of 48 h. The SOD, CAT, GST, LPO were measured and integrated biomarker response (IBR) was analysed. The results from thermal tolerance maxima estimation, biomarker study, IBR responses indicated more intense stress response in fish M. gulio whereas recovery potential was greater in shrimp P. monodon. Our findings corroborate the 'trophic sensitivity hypothesis' which advocates predators to be less tolerant in aggravated environmental stress than their prey.

The importance of considering the duration of extreme temperatures when investigating responses to climate change

The frequency and duration of heatwaves are increasing because of human activities. To cope with the changes, species with longer generation times may have to rely on plastic responses. The probability that their responses are adaptive is higher if the species have experienced temperature fluctuations also in their evolutionary past. However, experimental studies investigating responses to heatwaves often use exposure times that are significantly shorter than recent heatwaves. We show that this can lead to faulty conclusions and that the duration of higher temperature has to be considered in experimental designs. We recorded the response of threespine stickleback to prolonged duration of higher temperature during the breeding season, using a population that has experienced large fluctuations in temperature in its past and, hence, is expected to endure temperature changes well. We found males to adaptively adjust their reproductive behaviours to short periods of higher temperature, but not to longer periods that extended across two breeding cycles. Males initially increased their reproductive activities-nest building, courtship and parental care-which ensured high reproductive success during the first breeding cycle, but decreased their reproductive activities during the second breeding cycle when exposed to sustained high temperature. This reduced their courtship success and resulted in fewer offspring. Thus, a species expected to cope well with higher temperature suffers fitness reductions when the duration of high temperature is prolonged. The results stress the importance of considering the duration of extreme environmental conditions when investigating the impact that human activities have on species. Responses to short-term exposures cannot be extrapolated to assess responses to longer periods of extreme conditions.

Resource limitation determines realized thermal performance of consumers in trophodynamic models

Recent work has demonstrated that changes in resource availability can alter a consumer's thermal performance curve (TPC). When resources decline, the optimal temperature and breadth of thermal performance also decline, leading to a greater risk of warming than predicted by static TPCs. We investigate the effect of temperature on coupled consumer-resource dynamics, focusing on the potential for changes in the consumer TPC to alter extinction risk. Coupling consumer and resource dynamics generally reduces the potential for resource decline to exacerbate the effects of warming via changes to the TPC due to a reduction in top-down control when consumers near the limits of their thermal performance curve. However, if resources are more sensitive to warming, consumer TPCs can be reshaped by declining resources, leading to increased extinction risk. Our work elucidates the role of top-down and bottom-up regulation in determining the extent to which changes in resource density alter consumer TPCs.

A Temperature-Dependent Model for Tritrophic Interactions Involving Tea Plants, Tea Green Leafhoppers and Natural Enemies

The tea green leaf hopper, Empoasca onukii Matsuda, is a severe pest of tea plants. Volatile emissions from tea shoots infested by the tea green leafhopper may directly repel insect feeding or attract natural enemies. Many studies have been conducted on various aspects of the tritrophic relationship involving tea plants, tea green leafhoppers and natural enemies. However, mathematic models which could explain the dynamic mechanisms of this tritrophic interaction are still lacking. In the current work, we constructed a realistic and stochastic model with temperature-dependent features to characterize the tritrophic interactions in the tea agroecosystem. Model outputs showed that two leafhopper outbreaks occur in a year, with their features being consistent with field observations. Simulations showed that daily average effective accumulated temperature (EAT) might be an important metric for outbreak prediction. We also showed that application of slow-releasing semiochemicals, as either repellents or attractants, may be highly efficacious for pest biocontrol and can significantly increase tea yields. Furthermore, the start date of applying semiochemicals can be optimized to effectively increase tea yields. The current model qualitatively characterizes key features of the tritrophic interactions and provides critical insight into pest control in tea ecosystems.

Spectrum of artificial light at night drives impact of a diurnal species in insect food web

Artificial light at night (ALAN) has become a profound form of global anthropogenic environmental change differing in from natural light regimes in intensity, duration, distribution and spectra. It is clear that ALAN impacts individual organisms, however, population level effects, particularly of spectral changes, remain poorly understood. Here we exposed experimental multigenerational aphid-parasitoid communities in the field to seven different light spectra at night ranging from 385 to 630 nm and compared responses to a natural day-night light regime. We found that while aphid population growth was initially unaffected by ALAN, parasitoid efficiency declined under most ALAN spectra, leading to reduced top-down control and higher aphid densities. These results differ from those previously found for white light, showing a strong impact on species' daytime performance. This highlights the importance of ALAN spectra when considering their environmental impact. ALAN can have large impacts on the wider ecological community by influencing diurnal species.

Linking animal behavior to ecosystem change in disturbed environments

Environmental disturbances often cause individuals to change their behavior. The behavioral responses can induce a chain of reactions through the network of species interactions, via consumptive and trait mediated connections. Given that species interactions define ecosystem structure and functioning, changes to these interactions often have ecological repercussions. Here, we explore the transmission of behavioral responses through the network of species interactions, and how the responses influence ecological conditions. We describe the underlying mechanisms and the ultimate impact that the behavioral responses can have on ecosystem structure and functioning, including biodiversity and ecosystems stability and services. We explain why behavioral responses of some species have a larger impact than that of others on ecosystems, and why research should focus on these species and their interactions. With the work, we synthesize existing theory and empirical evidence to provide a conceptual framework that links behavior responses to altered species interactions, community dynamics, and ecosystem processes. Considering that species interactions link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning, a deeper understanding of behavioral responses and their causes and consequences can improve our knowledge of the mechanisms and pathways through which human activities alter ecosystems. This knowledge can improve our ability to predict the effects of ongoing disturbances on communities and ecosystems and decide on the interventions needed to mitigate negative effects.

Evolutionary interactions between thermal ecology and sexual selection

Thermal ecology and mate competition are both pervasive features of ecological adaptation. A surge of recent work has uncovered the diversity of ways in which temperature affects mating interactions and sexual selection. However, the potential for thermal biology and reproductive ecology to evolve together as organisms adapt to their thermal environment has been underappreciated. Here, we develop a series of hypotheses regarding (1) not only how thermal ecology affects mating system dynamics, but also how mating dynamics can generate selection on thermal traits; and (2) how the thermal consequences of mate competition favour the reciprocal co-adaptation of thermal biology and sexual traits. We discuss our hypotheses in the context of both pre-copulatory and post-copulatory processes. We also call for future work integrating experimental and phylogenetic comparative approaches to understand evolutionary feedbacks between thermal ecology and sexual selection. Overall, studying reciprocal feedbacks between thermal ecology and sexual selection may be necessary to understand how organisms have adapted to the environments of the past and could persist in the environments of the future.

Warming alters the metabolic rates and life-history parameters of Ceriodaphnia silvestrii (Cladocera)

Temperature rise has effects on the metabolic process of organisms, population structure, and ecosystem functioning. Here, we tested the effects of warming on the metabolic rates and life-history parameters of the widespread cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii. Two scenarios of global warming were established, an increase of 2 °C and an increase of 4 °C; the control temperature was 22°C. Our results showed that warming altered C. silvestrii metabolic rates, by increasing the rates of assimilation and secondary production, and decreasing the rates of filtration and ingestion. Warming also increased C. silvestrii fecundity and the body size of neonates and juveniles, and decreased the embryonic and post-embryonic time of development. C. silvestrii might be an important food resource at intermediary temperature as it had higher assimilation rates, even filtering fewer algae. At the highest temperature, we observed a substantial decrease in assimilation and secondary production, which could be a sign of stress starting. The increase in temperature by global warming will affect the cladocerans' metabolic processes and the population survival, even a small increase (2°C) might induce drastic fluctuations in such processes and affect the carbon and energy availability inside aquatic food-webs.

Thermal Traits Vary with Mass and across Populations of the Marsh Periwinkle, Littoraria irrorata

AbstractPhysiological processes influence how individuals perform in various environmental contexts. The basis of such processes, metabolism, scales allometrically with body mass and nonlinearly with temperature, as described by a thermal performance curve. Past studies of thermal performance curves tend to focus on effects of temperature on a single body size or population, rather than variation in the thermal performance curve across sizes and populations. Here, we estimate intraspecific variation in parameters of the thermal performance curve in the salt marsh gastropod Littoraria irrorata. First, we quantify the thermal performance curve for respiration rate as a function of both temperature and body size in Littoraria and evaluate whether the thermal parameters and body size scaling are interdependent. Next, we quantify how parameters in the thermal performance curve for feeding rate vary between three Littoraria populations that occur along a latitudinal gradient. Our work suggests that the thermal traits describing Littoraria respiration are dependent on body mass and that both the thermal traits and the mass scaling of feeding vary across sites. We found limited evidence to suggest that mass scaling of Littoraria feeding or respiration rates depends on temperature. Variation in the thermal performance curves interacts with the size structure of the Littoraria population to generate divergent population-level responses to temperature. These results highlight the importance of considering variation in population size structure and physiological allometry when attempting to predict how temperature change will affect physiological responses and consumer-resource interactions.

Protist Predation Influences the Temperature Response of Bacterial Communities

Temperature strongly influences microbial community structure and function, in turn contributing to global carbon cycling that can fuel further warming. Recent studies suggest that biotic interactions among microbes may play an important role in determining the temperature responses of these communities. However, how predation regulates these microbiomes under future climates is still poorly understood. Here, we assess whether predation by a key global bacterial consumer-protists-influences the temperature response of the community structure and function of a freshwater microbiome. To do so, we exposed microbial communities to two cosmopolitan protist species-Tetrahymena thermophila and Colpidium sp.-at two different temperatures, in a month-long microcosm experiment. While microbial biomass and respiration increased with temperature due to community shifts, these responses changed over time and in the presence of protists. Protists influenced microbial biomass and respiration rate through direct and indirect effects on bacterial community structure, and predator presence actually reduced microbial respiration at elevated temperature. Indicator species analyses showed that these predator effects were mostly determined by phylum-specific bacterial responses to protist density and cell size. Our study supports previous findings that temperature is an important driver of microbial communities but also demonstrates that the presence of a large predator can mediate these responses to warming.

Metabolic plasticity improves lobster's resilience to ocean warming but not to climate-driven novel species interactions

Marine species not only suffer from direct effects of warming oceans but also indirectly via the emergence of novel species interactions. While metabolic adjustments can be crucial to improve resilience to warming, it is largely unknown if this improves performance relative to novel competitors. We aimed to identify if spiny lobsters—inhabiting a global warming and species re-distribution hotspot—align their metabolic performance to improve resilience to both warming and novel species interactions. We measured metabolic and escape capacity of two Australian spiny lobsters, resident Jasus edwardsii and the range-shifting Sagmariasus verreauxi, acclimated to current average—(14.0 °C), current summer—(17.5 °C) and projected future summer—(21.5 °C) habitat temperatures. We found that both species decreased their standard metabolic rate with increased acclimation temperature, while sustaining their scope for aerobic metabolism. However, the resident lobster showed reduced anaerobic escape performance at warmer temperatures and failed to match the metabolic capacity of the range-shifting lobster. We conclude that although resident spiny lobsters optimise metabolism in response to seasonal and future temperature changes, they may be unable to physiologically outperform their range-shifting competitors. This highlights the critical importance of exploring direct as well as indirect effects of temperature changes to understand climate change impacts.

A specialist bee and its host plants experience phenological shifts at different rates in response to climate change

Changes in climate can alter the phenology of organisms, potentially decoupling partners within mutualisms. Previous studies have shown that plant and pollinator phenologies are shifting over time, but these shifts have primarily been documented for generalists and within small geographic regions, and the specific climatic cues regulating these shifts are not well-understood. We examined phenological shifts in a specialist pollinator and its host plant species over a 117-year study period using a digitized dataset of over 4000 unique collection records. We assess how climatic cues regulate these organisms' phenologies using PRISM weather data associated with each record. We tested the hypothesis that rates of phenological change would be greater at northern latitudes. We found that the phenology of the specialist bee pollinator Habropoda laboriosa is changing over time, but at different rates across its range. Specifically, phenology is advancing to a greater degree in more northern populations, with increasing phenological advances of 0.04 days/year with each degree of latitude, and with a delay in phenology in more southern populations. In contrast, only one species in the host plant genus Vaccinium is experiencing phenological change over time. For this plant, rates of change are also variable across latitudes, but in a pattern opposite that of the bee; while phenology is advancing across its range, rates of advance are highest in more southern populations, with decreasing phenological advances of 0.01 days/year with each degree of latitude. The phenologies of both the bee and three of four Vaccinium spp. were regulated primarily by spring temperature, with phenologies overall advancing with increasing temperature, and with the strongest responses shown by the bee in northern populations. Our study provides partial support for the hypothesis that phenologies advance most at northern latitudes, but demonstrates that pollinators and plants do not adhere similarly to this prediction. Additionally, we illustrate the potential for phenological mismatch between a specialist pollinator and its host plants by showing that plants and pollinators are advancing their phenologies at different rates across space and time and with differing responses to changing climatic cues.

Mixed interactions among life history stages of two harvested related species

Climate change and harvesting can affect the ecosystems' functioning by altering the population dynamics and interactions among species. Knowing how species interact is essential for better understanding potentially unintended consequences of harvest on multiple species in ecosystems. I analyzed how stage-specific interactions between two harvested competitors, the haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), living in the Barents Sea affect the outcome of changes in the harvest of the two species. Using state-space models that account for observation errors and stochasticity in the population dynamics, I run different harvesting scenarios and track population-level responses of both species. The increasing temperature elevated the number of larvae of haddock but did not significantly influence the older age-classes. The nature of the interactions between both species shifted from predator-prey to competition around age-2 to -3. Increased cod fishing mortality, which led to decreasing abundance of cod, was associated with an increasing overall abundance of haddock, which suggests compensatory dynamics of both species. From a stage-specific approach, I show that a change in the abundance in one species may propagate to other species, threatening the exploited species' recovery. Thus, this study demonstrates that considering interactions among life history stages of harvested species is essential to enhance species' co-existence in harvested ecosystems. The approach developed in this study steps forward the analyses of effects of harvest and climate in multi-species systems by considering the comprehension of complex ecological processes to facilitate the sustainable use of natural resources.