Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen

The effect of spatial dynamics on the behaviour of an environmentally transmitted disease

Understanding the spread of pathogens through the environment is critical to a fuller comprehension of disease dynamics. However, many mathematical models of disease dynamics ignore spatial effects. We seek to expand knowledge around the interaction between the bare-nosed wombat (Vombatus ursinus) and sarcoptic mange (etiologic agent Sarcoptes scabiei), by extending an aspatial mathematical model to include spatial variation. S. scabiei was found to move through our modelled region as a spatio-temporal travelling wave, leaving behind pockets of localized host extinction, consistent with field observations. The speed of infection spread was also comparable with field research. Our model predicts that the inclusion of spatial dynamics leads to the survival and recovery of affected wombat populations when an aspatial model predicts extinction. Collectively, this research demonstrates how environmentally transmitted S. scabiei can result in travelling wave dynamics, and that inclusion of spatial variation reveals a more resilient host population than aspatial modelling approaches.

Demographic History and Genomic Response to Environmental Changes in a Rapid Radiation of Wild Rats

For organisms to survive and prosper in a harsh environment, particularly under rapid climate change, poses tremendous challenges. Recent studies have highlighted the continued loss of megafauna in terrestrial ecosystems and the subsequent surge of small mammals, such as rodents, bats, lagomorphs, and insectivores. However, the ecological partitioning of these animals will likely lead to large variation in their responses to environmental change. In the present study, we investigated the evolutionary history and genetic adaptations of white-bellied rats (Niviventer Marshall, 1976), which are widespread in the natural terrestrial ecosystems in Asia but also known as important zoonotic pathogen vectors and transmitters. The southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was inferred as the origin center of this genus, with parallel diversification in temperate and tropical niches. Demographic history analyses from mitochondrial and nuclear sequences of Niviventer demonstrated population size increases and range expansion for species in Southeast Asia, and habitat generalists elsewhere. Unexpectedly, population increases were seen in N. eha, which inhabits the highest elevation among Niviventer species. Genome scans of nuclear exons revealed that among the congeneric species, N. eha has the largest number of positively selected genes. Protein functions of these genes are mainly related to olfaction, taste, and tumor suppression. Extensive genetic modification presents a major strategy in response to global changes in these alpine species.

Transmission modelling of environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases: a systematic review

Transmission of many infectious diseases depends on interactions between humans, animals, and the environment. Incorporating these complex processes in transmission dynamic models can help inform policy and disease control interventions. We identified 20 diseases involving environmentally persistent pathogens (ie, pathogens that survive for more than 48 h in the environment and can cause subsequent human infections), of which indirect transmission can occur from animals to humans via the environment. Using a systematic approach, we critically appraised dynamic transmission models for environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases to quantify traits of models across diseases. 210 transmission modelling studies were identified and most studies considered diseases of domestic animals or high-income settings, or both. We found that less than half of studies validated their models to real-world data, and environmental data on pathogen persistence was rarely incorporated. Model structures varied, with few studies considering the animal-human-environment interface of transmission in the context of a One Health framework. This Review highlights the need for more data-driven modelling of these diseases and a holistic One Health approach to model these pathogens to inform disease prevention and control strategies.

Herd immunity drives the epidemic fadeout of avian cholera in Arctic-nesting seabirds

Avian cholera, caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida, is a common and important infectious disease of wild birds in North America. Between 2005 and 2012, avian cholera caused annual mortality of widely varying magnitudes in Northern common eiders (Somateria mollissima borealis) breeding at the largest colony in the Canadian Arctic, Mitivik Island, Nunavut. Although herd immunity, in which a large proportion of the population acquires immunity to the disease, has been suggested to play a role in epidemic fadeout, immunological studies exploring this hypothesis have been missing. We investigated the role of three potential drivers of fadeout of avian cholera in eiders, including immunity, prevalence of infection, and colony size. Each potential driver was examined in relation to the annual real-time reproductive number (R_t) of P. multocida, previously calculated for eiders at Mitivik Island. Each year, colony size was estimated and eiders were closely monitored, and evaluated for infection and serological status. We demonstrate that acquired immunity approximated using antibody titers to P. multocida in both sexes was likely a key driver for the epidemic fadeout. This study exemplifies the importance of herd immunity in influencing the dynamics and fadeout of epidemics in a wildlife population.

Evolutionary history of field mice (Murinae: Apodemus), with emphasis on morphological variation among species in China and description of a new species

Mice of the genus Apodemus are widely distributed across Eurasia. Several species of this genus are hosts of important zoonotic diseases and parasites. The evolutionary history and dispersal routes of these mice remain unclear and the distribution of these species in China was poorly explored in previous studies. We here investigate the divergence times and historical geographical evolution of Apodemus and study the taxonomy of species in China by integrating molecular and morphological data. The crown age of this genus is dated to the Late Miocene, approximately 9.84 Mya. Western and Central Asia were inferred as the most likely ancestral area of this genus. Moreover, we recognize nine living species of Apodemus in China: Apodemus uralensis, A. agrarius, A. chevrieri, A. latronum, A. peninsulae, A. draco, A. ilex, A. semotus and A. nigrus sp. nov., the last from the highlands (elevation > 1984 m) of Fanjing Mountain in Guizhou Province and Jinfo Mountain in Chongqing Province. This new species diverged from A. draco, A. semotus and A. ilex approximately 4.53 Mya. The discovery of A. nigrus highlights the importance of high mountains as refugia and ‘isolated ecological islands’ for temperate species in south-eastern China.

Landscape structure affects the prevalence and distribution of a tick-borne zoonotic pathogen

Background

Landscape structure can affect pathogen prevalence and persistence with consequences for human and animal health. Few studies have examined how reservoir host species traits may interact with landscape structure to alter pathogen communities and dynamics. Using a landscape of islands and mainland sites we investigated how natural landscape fragmentation affects the prevalence and persistence of the zoonotic tick-borne pathogen complex Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu lato), which causes Lyme borreliosis. We hypothesized that the prevalence of B. burgdorferi (s.l.) would be lower on islands compared to the mainland and B. afzelii, a small mammal specialist genospecies, would be more affected by isolation than bird-associated B. garinii and B. valaisiana and the generalist B. burgdorferi (sensu stricto).

Methods

Questing (host-seeking) nymphal I. ricinus ticks (n = 6567) were collected from 12 island and 6 mainland sites in 2011, 2013 and 2015 and tested for B. burgdorferi (s.l.). Deer abundance was estimated using dung transects.

Results

The prevalence of B. burgdorferi (s.l.) was significantly higher on the mainland (2.5%, 47/1891) compared to island sites (0.9%, 44/4673) (P < 0.01). While all four genospecies of B. burgdorferi (s.l.) were detected on the mainland, bird-associated species B. garinii and B. valaisiana and the generalist genospecies B. burgdorferi (s.s.) predominated on islands.

Conclusion

We found that landscape structure influenced the prevalence of a zoonotic pathogen, with a lower prevalence detected among island sites compared to the mainland. This was mainly due to the significantly lower prevalence of small mammal-associated B. afzelii. Deer abundance was not related to pathogen prevalence, suggesting that the structure and dynamics of the reservoir host community underpins the observed prevalence patterns, with the higher mobility of bird hosts compared to small mammal hosts leading to a relative predominance of the bird-associated genospecies B. garinii and generalist genospecies B. burgdorferi (s.s.) on islands. In contrast, the lower prevalence of B. afzelii on islands may be due to small mammal populations there exhibiting lower densities, less immigration and stronger population fluctuations. This study suggests that landscape fragmentation can influence the prevalence of a zoonotic pathogen, dependent on the biology of the reservoir host.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3200-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Emerging Rodent-Borne Viral Zoonoses in Trento, Italy

Rodent-borne hanta- and arenaviruses are an emerging public health threat in Europe; however, their circulation in human populations is usually underestimated since most infections are asymptomatic. Compared to other European countries, Italy is considered 'low risk' for these viruses, yet in the Province of Trento, two pathogenic hantaviruses (Puumala and Dobrava-Belgrade virus) and one arenavirus (Lymphocytic Choriomeningitis Virus) are known to circulate in rodent reservoirs. In this paper, we performed a follow-up serological screening in humans to detect variation in the prevalence of these three viruses compared to previous analyses carried out in 2002. We also used a statistical model to link seropositivity to risk factors such as occupational exposure, cutting firewood, hunting, collecting mushrooms, having a garden and owning a woodshed, a dog or a companion rodent. We demonstrate a significant increase in the seroprevalence of all three target viruses between 2002 and 2015, but no risk factors that we considered were significantly correlated with this increase. We conclude that the general exposure of residents in the Alps to these viruses has probably increased during the last decade. These results provide an early warning to public health authorities, and we suggest more detailed diagnostic and clinical investigations on suspected cases.

Hantavirus maintenance and transmission in reservoir host populations

Hantaviruses are primarily hosted by mammalian species of the orders Rodentia, Eulipotyphla and Chiroptera. Spillover to humans is common, and understanding hantavirus maintenance and transmission in reservoir host populations is important for efforts to curtail human disease. Recent field research challenges traditional phases of virus shedding kinetics derived from laboratory rodent infection experiments. Organ infection sites in non-rodent hosts suggest similar transmission routes to rodents, but require direct assessment. Further advances have also been made in understanding virus persistence (and fadeouts) in fluctuating host populations, as well as occupational, recreational and environmental risk factors associated with spillover to humans. However, despite relevance for both intra-species and inter-species transmission, our understanding of the longevity of hantaviruses in natural environments remains limited.