Survival varies seasonally in a migratory bird: Linkages between breeding and non-breeding periods

Non-breeding conditions induce carry-over effects on survival of migratory birds

Identifying the processes that limit populations is a foundational objective of ecology and an urgent need for conservation. For migratory animals, researchers must study individuals throughout their annual cycles to determine how environmental conditions limit demographic rates within each period of the annual cycle and also between periods through carry-over effects and seasonal interactions.1,2,3,4,5,6 Our poor understanding of the rates and causes of avian migration mortality7 hinders the identification of limiting factors and the reversal of widespread avian population declines.8,9 Here, we implement new methods to estimate apparent survival (hereafter survival) during migration directly from automated telemetry data10 in Kirtland's Warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii) and indirectly from mark-recapture data in Black-throated Blue Warblers (S. caerulescens). Previous experimental and observational studies of our focal species and other migratory songbirds have shown strong effects of Caribbean precipitation and habitat quality on food availability,11,12,13,14 body condition,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19 migration timing,11,12,15,16,20,21,22,23 natal dispersal,24,25 range dynamics,26 reproductive success,20,22,27 and annual survival.18,19,20,23,28,29,30,31 Building on this research, we test the hypotheses that environmental conditions during the non-breeding period affect subsequent survival during spring migration and breeding. We found that reduced precipitation and environmental productivity in the non-breeding period strongly influenced survival in both species, primarily by reducing survival during spring migration. Our results indicate that climate-driven environmental conditions can carry over to affect survival in subsequent periods and thus likely play an important role in year-round population dynamics. These lethal carry-over effects may be widespread and are likely magnified by intensifying climate change.

Effects of persistent organic pollutants on telomere dynamics are sex and age-specific in a wild long-lived bird

Chemical pollution is a major man-made environmental threat to ecosystems and natural animal populations. Of concern are persistent organic pollutants (POPs), which can persist in the environment for many years. While bioaccumulating throughout the lives of wild animals, POPs can affect their health, reproduction, and survival. However, measuring long-term effects of POPs in wild populations is challenging, and therefore appropriate biomarkers are required in wildlife ecotoxicology. One potential target is telomere length, since telomere preservation has been associated to survival and longevity, and stressors as chemical pollution can disrupt its maintenance. Here, we investigated the effects of different classes of POPs on relative telomere length (RTL) and its rate of change (TROC) in wild long-lived Alpine swifts (Tachymarptis melba). As both RTL and TROC are often reported to differ between sexes and with chronological age, we tested for sex- and age-specific (pre-senescent vs. senescent, ≥ 9 age of years, individuals) effects of POPs. Our results showed that senescent females presented longer RTL and elongated telomeres over time compared to pre-senescent females and males. These sex- and age-related differences in RTL and TROC were influenced by POPs, but differently depending on whether they were organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) or industrial polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). OCPs (particularly drins) were negatively associated with RTL, with the strongest negative effects being found in senescent females. Conversely, PCBs led to slower rates of telomere shortening, especially in females. Our study indicates diametrically opposed effects of OCPs on RTL and PCBs on TROC, and these effects were more pronounced in females and senescent individuals. The mechanisms behind these effects (e.g., increased oxidative stress by OCPs; upregulation of telomerase activity by PCBs) remain unknown. Our results highlight the importance in wildlife ecotoxicology to account for sex- and age-related effects when investigating the health effects of pollutants on biomarkers such as telomeres.

Differential changes in the morphology and fuel loads of obligatory and partial migrant passerines over half a century in Britain

Migratory distances and stopover locations are changing for many passerines in response to climate change. Morphological changes have been linked to rising global temperatures in both migrants and residents, but the implications of these changes on fuel loads, and associated flight ranges are little studied. Wing length and body mass changes between 1964 and 2020 were calculated for 15 migrant and partially migrant passerines in Britain. Changes in fuel load and lean body mass were also estimated and used to predict flight ranges. Twelve of the species have undergone morphological changes and eight species, estimated fuel load changes. Nine species were estimated to have reduced flight ranges, indicating that the morphological changes have not compensated fully for the reduction in flight range experienced since 1964. Partial migrants showed greater decreases in flight ranges than did full migrants, which may indicate greater behavioural plasticity in the former. Those species which do not adapt morphologically or behaviourally may be unable to complete long migrations, resulting in restriction to sub-optimal breeding/wintering habitats, or a need for a sooner first stop and more stops en route. This highlights the importance of conserving migratory stopover sites, particularly in the Mediterranean and North Africa that immediately precede major geographical barriers, as-well-as breeding and wintering grounds.

Reduced hybrid survival in a migratory divide between songbirds

Migratory divides, hybrid zones between populations that use different seasonal migration routes, are hypothesised to contribute to speciation. Specifically, relative to parental species, hybrids at divides are predicted to exhibit (1) intermediate migratory behaviour and (2) reduced fitness as a result. We provide the first direct test of the second prediction here with one of the largest existing avian tracking datasets, leveraging a divide between Swainson's thrushes where the first prediction is supported. Using detection rates as a proxy for survival, our results supported the migratory divide hypothesis with lower survival rates for hybrids than parental forms. This finding was juvenile-specific (vs. adults), suggesting selection against hybrids is stronger earlier in life. Reduced hybrid survival was not explained by selection against intermediate phenotypes or negative interactions among phenotypes. Additional work connecting specific features of migration is needed, but these patterns provide strong support for migration as an ecological driver of speciation.

Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for-particularly small-populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.

Distance doesn't matter: migration strategy in a seabird has no effect on survival or reproduction

Migrating animals show remarkable diversity in migration strategies, even between individuals from the same population. Migrating longer distances is usually expected to be costlier in terms of time, energy expenditure and risks with potential repercussions for subsequent stages within the annual cycle. Such costs are expected to be balanced by increased survival, for example due to higher quality wintering areas or lower energy expenditure at lower latitudes. We compared reproductive parameters and apparent survival of lesser black-backed gulls (Larus fuscus) breeding in The Netherlands, whose winter range extends from the UK to West Africa, resulting in one-way migration distances that differ by more than 4500 km. Individuals migrating furthest arrived later in the colony than shorter distance migrants, but still laid in synchrony with the colony and consequently had a shorter pre-laying period. This shorter pre-laying period affected neither egg volumes nor hatching success. We found no relationship between migration distance and apparent survival probability, corresponding with previous research showing that annual energy expenditure and distance travelled throughout the year is similar across migration strategies. Combined, our results indicate an equal fitness payoff across migration strategies, suggesting there is no strong selective pressure acting on migration strategy within this population.

Seasonal trends in adult apparent survival and reproductive trade-offs reveal potential constraints to earlier nesting in a migratory bird

Birds aim to optimize resources for feeding young and self-maintenance by timing reproduction to coincide with peak food availability. When reproduction is mistimed, birds could incur costs that affect their survival. We studied whether nesting phenology correlated with the apparent survival of American kestrels (Falco sparverius) from two distinct populations and examined trends in clutch-initiation dates. We estimated apparent survival using multi-state mark-recapture models with nesting timing, nesting success, sex, age, and weather covariates. Nesting timing predicted the apparent survival of successful adults; however, the effect differed between populations. Early nesting kestrels had higher apparent survival than later nesters in the western population, where kestrels have a relatively long nesting season. At the eastern site, where kestrels have a relatively short nesting season, the pattern was reversed-later nesters had higher apparent survival than earlier nesters. Nesting timing did not affect the apparent survival of adults with failed nests suggesting that the energetic cost of producing fledglings contributed to the timing effect. Finally, clutch-initiation dates advanced in the western population and remained static in the eastern population. Given that both populations have seasonal declines in productivity, population-specific survival patterns provide insight into seasonal trade-offs. Specifically, nesting timing effects on survival paralleled productivity declines in the western population and inverse patterns of survival and reproduction in the eastern population suggest a condition-dependent trade-off. Concomitant seasonal declines in reproduction and survival may facilitate population-level responses to earlier springs, whereas seasonal trade-offs may constrain phenology shifts and increase vulnerability to mismatch.

Seasonal Trends in Movement Patterns of Birds and Insects Aloft Simultaneously Recorded by Radar

Airspace is a key but not well-understood habitat for many animal species. Enormous amounts of insects and birds use the airspace to forage, disperse, and migrate. Despite numerous studies on migration, the year-round flight activities of both birds and insects are still poorly studied. We used a 2 year dataset from a vertical-looking radar in Central Europe and developed an iterative hypothesis-testing algorithm to investigate the general temporal pattern of migratory and local movements. We estimated at least 3 million bird and 20 million insect passages over a 1 km transect annually. Most surprisingly, peak non-directional bird movement intensities during summer were of the same magnitude as seasonal directional movement peaks. Birds showed clear peaks in seasonally directional movements during day and night, coinciding well with the main migration period documented in this region. Directional insect movements occurred throughout the year, paralleling non-directional movements. In spring and summer, insect movements were non-directional; in autumn, their movements concentrated toward the southwest, similar to birds. Notably, the nocturnal movements of insects did not appear until April, while directional movements mainly occurred in autumn. This simple monitoring reveals how little we still know about the movement of biomass through airspace.

Differential survival throughout the full annual cycle of a migratory bird presents a life-history trade-off

Long-distance migrations are among the most physically demanding feats animals perform. Understanding the potential costs and benefits of such behaviour is a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. A hypothetical cost of migration should be outweighed by higher productivity and/or higher annual survival, but few studies on migratory species have been able to directly quantify patterns of survival throughout the full annual cycle and across the majority of a species' range. Here, we use telemetry data from 220 migratory Egyptian vultures Neophron percnopterus, tracked for 3,186 bird months and across approximately 70% of the species' global distribution, to test for differences in survival throughout the annual cycle. We estimated monthly survival probability relative to migration and latitude using a multi-event capture-recapture model in a Bayesian framework that accounted for age, origin, subpopulation and the uncertainty of classifying fates from tracking data. We found lower survival during migration compared to stationary periods (β = -0.816; 95% credible interval: -1.290 to -0.318) and higher survival on non-breeding grounds at southern latitudes (<25°N; β = 0.664; 0.076-1.319) compared to on breeding grounds. Survival was also higher for individuals originating from Western Europe (β = 0.664; 0.110-1.330) as compared to further east in Europe and Asia, and improved with age (β = 0.030; 0.020-0.042). Anthropogenic mortalities accounted for half of the mortalities with a known cause and occurred mainly in northern latitudes. Many juveniles drowned in the Mediterranean Sea on their first autumn migration while there were few confirmed mortalities in the Sahara Desert, indicating that migration barriers are likely species-specific. Our study advances the understanding of important fitness trade-offs associated with long-distance migration. We conclude that there is lower survival associated with migration, but that this may be offset by higher non-breeding survival at lower latitudes. We found more human-caused mortality farther north, and suggest that increasing anthropogenic mortality could disrupt the delicate migration trade-off balance. Research to investigate further potential benefits of migration (e.g. differential productivity across latitudes) could clarify how migration evolved and how migrants may persist in a rapidly changing world.

Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action

Wildlife conservation policies directed at common and widespread, but declining, species are difficult to design and implement effectively, as multiple environmental changes are likely to contribute to population declines. Conservation actions ultimately aim to influence demographic rates, but targeting actions towards feasible improvements in these is challenging in widespread species with ranges that encompass a wide range of environmental conditions. Across Europe, sharp declines in the abundance of migratory landbirds have driven international calls for action, but actions that could feasibly contribute to population recovery have yet to be identified. Targeted actions to improve conditions on poor-quality sites could be an effective approach, but only if local conditions consistently influence local demography and hence population trends. Using long-term measures of abundance and demography of breeding birds at survey sites across Europe, we show that co-occurring species with differing migration behaviours have similar directions of local population trends and magnitudes of productivity, but not survival rates. Targeted actions to boost local productivity within Europe, alongside large-scale (non-targeted) environmental protection across non-breeding ranges, could therefore help address the urgent need to halt migrant landbird declines. Such demographic routes to recovery are likely to be increasingly needed to address global wildlife declines.