The relative influence of cross‐seasonal and local weather effects on the breeding success of a migratory songbird

Warming sea surface temperatures are linked to lower shorebird migratory fuel loads

Warming sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are altering the biological structure of intertidal wetlands at a global scale, with potentially serious physiological and demographic consequences for migratory shorebird populations that depend on intertidal sites. The effects of mediating factors, such as age-related foraging skill, in shaping the consequences of warming SSTs on shorebird populations, however, remain largely unknown. Using morphological measurements of Dunlin fuelling for a >3000 km transoceanic migration, we assessed the influence of climatic conditions and age on individuals' migratory fuel loads and performance. We found that juveniles were often at risk of exhausting their fuel loads en route to primary wintering grounds, especially following high June SSTs in the previous year; the lagged nature of which suggests SSTs acted on juvenile loads by altering the availability of critical prey. Up to 45% fewer juveniles may have reached wintering grounds via a non-stop flight under recent high SSTs compared to the long-term trend. Adults, by contrast, were highly capable of reaching wintering grounds in non-stop flight across years. Our findings suggest that juveniles were disproportionately impacted by apparent SST-related declines in critical prey, and illustrate a general mechanism by which climate change may shape migratory shorebird populations worldwide.

Relative breeding timing and reproductive success of a resident montane bird species

Wild populations appear to synchronize their reproductive phenology based on numerous environmental and ecological factors; yet, there is still individual variation in the timing of reproduction within populations and such variation may be associated with fitness consequences. For example, many studies have documented a seasonal decline in reproductive fitness, but breeding timing may have varying consequences across different environments. Using 11 years of data, we investigated the relationship between relative breeding timing and reproductive success in resident mountain chickadees (Poecile gambeli) across two elevational bands in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA. Chickadees that synchronized breeding with the majority of the population ('peak' of breeding) did not have the highest breeding success. Instead, birds that bred early performed best at high elevation, while at low elevation early and peak nests performed similarly. At both elevations, late nests consistently performed the worst. Overall, breeding success decreased with increasing relative timing at both high and low elevations, but the relationship between breeding success and timing differed among years. Our results suggest that in mountain chickadees, earlier breeding is associated with higher reproductive success, especially at high elevations, while late breeding is consistently associated with lower reproductive success at both elevations.

Complex relationships between climate and reproduction in a resident montane bird

Animals use climate-related environmental cues to fine-tune breeding timing and investment to match peak food availability. In birds, spring temperature is a commonly documented cue used to initiate breeding, but with global climate change, organisms are experiencing both directional changes in ambient temperatures and extreme year-to-year precipitation fluctuations. Montane environments exhibit complex climate patterns where temperatures and precipitation change along elevational gradients, and where exacerbated annual variation in precipitation has resulted in extreme swings between heavy snow and drought. We used 10 years of data to investigate how annual variation in climatic conditions is associated with differences in breeding phenology and reproductive performance in resident mountain chickadees (Poecile gambeli) at two elevations in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, USA. Variation in spring temperature was not associated with differences in breeding phenology across elevations in our system. Greater snow accumulation was associated with later breeding initiation at high, but not low, elevation. Brood size was reduced under drought, but only at low elevation. Our data suggest complex relationships between climate and avian reproduction and point to autumn climate as important for reproductive performance, likely via its effect on phenology and abundance of invertebrates.

Weather and nest cavity characteristics influence fecundity in mountain chickadees

Background

Examining direct and indirect effects on reproduction at multiple scales allows for a broad understanding of species' resilience to environmental change. We examine how the fecundity of the mountain chickadee (Poecile gambeli), a secondary cavity-nesting, insectivorous bird, varied in relation to factors at three scales: regional weather conditions, regional- and site-level food availability, site-level community dynamics, and nest-level cavity characteristics. We hypothesized that earlier laying dates and higher fecundity (clutch size, nest survival, brood size) would be associated with milder climatic conditions, increased food from insect outbreaks, lower densities of conspecifics and nest predators (red squirrel; Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), and safer (smaller, higher) cavities.

Methods

We collected data on laying date, clutch size, brood size, nest fate (success/failure), and cavity characteristics from 513 mountain chickadee nests in tree cavities in temperate mixed coniferous-broadleaf forest in interior British Columbia, Canada, from 2000 to 2011. We surveyed annual abundances of mountain chickadees and squirrels using repeated point counts, and mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and lepidopteran defoliators by monitoring host trees and by using regional-scale aerial overview forest insect survey data. We used weather data (temperature, rain, snow) from a local Environment and Climate Change Canada weather station. We modeled laying date, clutch size, daily nest survival, and brood size as a function of predictors at regional-, site-, and nest-scales.

Results and Conclusions

Measures of fecundity varied dramatically across years and spatial scales. At the regional (study-wide) scale, chickadees laid earlier and larger first clutches in warmer springs with minimal storms, and daily nest survival (DSR) increased with a 2-year lag in growing season temperature. Despite a doubling of mountain chickadee density that roughly accompanied the outbreaks of mountain pine beetle and lepidopteran defoliators, we found little evidence at the site scale that fecundity was influenced by insect availability, conspecific density, or predator density. At the nest scale, DSR and brood size increased with clutch size but DSR declined with nest cavity size indicating a positive reproductive effect of small-bodied cavity excavators. Double-brooding, rare in chickadees, occurred frequently in 2005 and 2007, coinciding with early breeding, high food availability from insect outbreaks, and warm spring temperatures with 0-1 spring storms. Our results support the idea that fecundity in secondary cavity-nesting species is impacted directly and indirectly by weather, and indirectly through changes in community dynamics (via cavity resource supply). We stress the importance of adopting holistic, community-level study frameworks to refine our understanding of fecundity in opportunistic and climate-sensitive species in future.