Optimizing confirmation of invasive species eradication with rapid eradication assessment

Eradicating an invasive mammal requires local elimination and reduced reinvasion from an urban source population

Invasive mammal eradications are increasingly attempted across large, complex landscapes. Sequentially controlled management zones can be at risk of reinvasion from adjacent uncontrolled areas, and managers must weigh the relative benefits of ensuring complete elimination from a zone or minimizing reinvasion risk. This is complicated in urban areas, where habitat heterogeneity and a lack of baseline ecological knowledge increase uncertainty. We applied a spatial agent-based model to predict the reinvasion of a well-studied species, the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), across an urban area onto a peninsula that is the site of an elimination campaign in Aotearoa New Zealand. We represented fine-scale urban habitat heterogeneity in a land cover layer and tested management scenarios that varied four factors: the density of possums remaining following an elimination attempt, the maintenance trap density on the peninsula, and effort expended toward preventing reinvasion by means of a high-density trap buffer at the peninsula isthmus or control of the source population adjacent to the peninsula. We found that achieving complete elimination on the peninsula was crucial to avoid rapid repopulation. The urban isthmus was predicted to act as a landscape barrier and restrict immigration onto the peninsula, but reliance on this barrier alone would fail to prevent repopulation. In combination, complete elimination, buffer zone, and source population control could reduce the probability of possum repopulation to near zero. Our findings support urban landscape barriers as one tool for sequential invasive mammal elimination but reaffirm that novel methods to expose residual individuals to control will be necessary to secure elimination in management zones. Work to characterize the urban ecology of many invasive mammals is still needed.

Tracking an invasion front with environmental DNA

Data from environmental DNA (eDNA) may revolutionize environmental monitoring and management, providing increased detection sensitivity at reduced cost and survey effort. However, eDNA data are rarely used in decision-making contexts, mainly due to uncertainty around (1) data interpretation and (2) whether and how molecular tools dovetail with existing management efforts. We address these challenges by jointly modeling eDNA detection via qPCR and traditional trap data to estimate the density of invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas), a species for which, historically, baited traps have been used for both detection and control. Our analytical framework simultaneously quantifies uncertainty in both detection methods and provides a robust way of integrating different data streams into management processes. Moreover, the joint model makes clear the marginal information benefit of adding eDNA (or any other) additional data type to an existing monitoring program, offering a path to optimizing sampling efforts for species of management interest. Here, we document green crab eDNA beyond the previously known invasion front and find that the value of eDNA data dramatically increases with low population densities and low traditional sampling effort, as is often the case at leading-edge locations. We also highlight the detection limits of the molecular assay used in this study, as well as scenarios under which eDNA sampling is unlikely to improve existing management efforts.

Cost-effective surveillance of invasive species using info-gap theory

Invasive species can lead to community-level damage to the invaded ecosystem and extinction of native species. Most surveillance systems for the detection of invasive species are developed based on expert assessment, inherently coming with a level of uncertainty. In this research, info-gap decision theory (IGDT) is applied to model and manage such uncertainty. Surveillance of the Asian House Gecko, Hemidactylus frenatus Duméril and Bibron, 1836 on Barrow Island, is used as a case study. Our research provides a novel method for applying IGDT to determine the population threshold (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$K$$\end{document}K) so that the decision can be robust to the deep uncertainty present in model parameters. We further robust-optimize surveillance costs rather than minimize surveillance costs. We demonstrate that increasing the population threshold for detection increases both robustness to the errors in the model parameter estimates, and opportuneness to lower surveillance costs than the accepted maximum budget. This paper provides guidance for decision makers to balance robustness and required surveillance expenditure. IGDT offers a novel method to model and manage the uncertainty prevalent in biodiversity conservation practices and modelling. The method outlined here can be used to design robust surveillance systems for invasive species in a wider context, and to better tackle uncertainty in protection of biodiversity and native species in a cost-effective manner.

Analytical Bayesian models to quantify pest eradication success or species absence using zero-sighting records

It is not possible to establish the absence of a population with certainty using imperfect zero-sighting records, but absence can be inferred. In this paper we use Bayesian methods to formulate analytical inferred distributions and statistics. When such formulations are available, they offer a highly efficient and powerful means of analysis. Our purpose is to provide accessible and versatile formulations to support an assessment of population absence for management decisions, using data from a series of regular and targeted surveys with zero-sightings. The stochastic processes considered here are prior population size, growth and imperfect detection, which are combined into a single distribution with sufficient flexibility to accommodate alternative distributions for each of the driving processes. Analytical solutions formulated include the inferred mean and variance for population size or number of infested survey-units, the probability of absence, the probability of a series of negative surveys conditional on presence, and the probability a population is first detected in a given survey, although we also formulate other statistics and provide explicit thresholds designed to support management decisions. Our formulation and results are straightforward to apply and provide insight into the nonlinear interactions and general characteristics of such systems. Although motivated by an assessment of population absence following a pest eradication program, results are also relevant to the status of threatened species, to 'proof-of-freedom' requirements for trade, and for inferring population size when a population is first detected.

Robust Decision Analysis under Severe Uncertainty and Ambiguous Tradeoffs: An Invasive Species Case Study

Bayesian decision analysis is a useful method for risk management decisions, but is limited in its ability to consider severe uncertainty in knowledge, and value ambiguity in management objectives. We study the use of robust Bayesian decision analysis to handle problems where one or both of these issues arise. The robust Bayesian approach models severe uncertainty through bounds on probability distributions, and value ambiguity through bounds on utility functions. To incorporate data, standard Bayesian updating is applied on the entire set of distributions. To elicit our expert's utility representing the value of different management objectives, we use a modified version of the swing weighting procedure that can cope with severe value ambiguity. We demonstrate these methods on an environmental management problem to eradicate an alien invasive marmorkrebs recently discovered in Sweden, which needed a rapid response despite substantial knowledge gaps if the species was still present (i.e., severe uncertainty) and the need for difficult tradeoffs and competing interests (i.e., value ambiguity). We identify that the decision alternatives to drain the system and remove individuals in combination with dredging and sieving with or without a degradable biocide, or increasing pH, are consistently bad under the entire range of probability and utility bounds. This case study shows how robust Bayesian decision analysis provides a transparent methodology for integrating information in risk management problems where little data are available and/or where the tradeoffs are ambiguous.

Six years of controlling the invasive species Vespa velutina in a Mediterranean island: The promising results of an eradication plan

BACKGROUND

The yellow-legged hornet, Vespa velutina nigrithorax, is an invasive alien species (IAS) which was accidentally introduced in Europe from Asia. This social insect preys primarily on honeybees but also on other pollinators and insects. Consequently, the establishment of this pest has a negative impact on biodiversity, pollination and economy. There is no clear coordination and uniformed methods for eradication measures between countries. Here we present the first field study of the strategy of eradication of the pest species V. velutina that has been conducted in the westernmost Mediterranean archipelago.

RESULTS

We investigated the combination of different eradication methods, such as trapping; the use of the citizen science data for detection of presence, the active search of nests and the removal of nests using mechanical methods. The progression of the number of secondary nests found was 1 (2015), 9 (2016) and 20 (2017), with zero during 2018, 2019 and 2020, and just one embryo nest in 2018. More than half of the nests (58%) were detected thanks to citizen science data. The people sent us adult detections, and we started the triangulation method to find the nests. The last hornet found in the traps was in June 2018.

CONCLUSION

Early detections of the IAS are crucial to minimise their effects, and citizen science may offer an important source of information to determine the presence and distribution of V. velutina. The findings we present here indicate successful management for this globally significant pest and could contribute to advance the 'science of eradication'. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Rodenticide baiting black rats (Rattus rattus) in mangrove habitats

ContextMangroves and intertidal habitats have been identified as particularly challenging environments for bait application within both tropical and temperate environments, because bait applied to areas that are tidally inundated could degrade rapidly or become inaccessible to rats. AimsTo determine rat density, ranging behaviour and probability of detection using different monitoring devices; additionally, to determine the availability (persistence, durability and uptake) of rodenticide baits within tidally inundated mangrove habitats. MethodsThe population biology of black rats (Rattus rattus) was studied in two contrasting mangrove habitats on Europa Island, and spatially explicit mark–recapture studies were performed to estimate densities and activity of rats. A series of bait availability trials was conducted to determine the durability of rodenticide baits on the ground and uptake in the canopy (‘bait bolas’). Key resultsBlack rats were found to be abundant in mangrove, and despite daily tidal inundation, still maintained ranging behaviour consistent with rats in adjacent terrestrial habitats. Larger rodenticide bait blocks remained within tidally inundated habitat throughout tidal cycles and were available and remained palatable to rats for at least three consecutive nights, although strong bait competition occurred with crabs. Bait bolas were available in mangrove canopy exclusively to rats and consumption commenced on the first night. ConclusionsThe results provide evidence that mangrove habitats are an important habitat for rats, but the biology of rats in these habitats does not meaningfully differ from adjacent terrestrial habitats. With the use of larger rodenticide blocks, tidal inundation does not affect bait availability, but crabs remain a major competitor for these baits. Alternatively, the present study revealed that bait bolas limit bait access to rats alone. Development as an aerial eradication technology should be also recommended. ImplicationsThese results provide a proof of concept that eradication of rats from tidally inundated habitats such as mangrove should be possible with only small modifications to current best practice.

Current Societal Views about Sustainable Wildlife Management and Conservation: A Survey of College Students in China

Simple Summary

Wildlife conservation and management has become a very complex public policy issue in China as concerns about animal welfare and empathy for animals have emerged, especially in the younger generation. Science-based conservation policy and strategy that focus on sustainable management are perceived as less irrelevant today and can often be in conflict with emerging attitudes and values. Sustainable wildlife management adheres to the conservation concept of effective combination of species conservation and sustainable utilization, with an aim to establish a long-acting species conservation model that promotes all-round development of ecology, society, and economy, and has traditionally formed the basis of conservation management. This study designed a semi-structured questionnaire, which aimed to assess attitudes of Chinese college students towards sustainable wildlife management and wildlife conservation, and investigate the role of demographic and other characteristics on attitude. From October 2018 to April 2019, nine universities (including “Double First-Class” universities, first-tier universities, second-tier universities), and four three-year colleges in China were selected as survey sites, where face-to-face interviews were conducted among students. The results show that students broadly support the sustainable wildlife management but not in issues relating to “Animal Welfare and Rights” and “Trophy Hunting”. Students with lowest support for the theory and practice of sustainable wildlife management are vegetarians, freshmen, and those who have taken environmental protection electives in their educational program.

Abstract

Wildlife conservation and management has become a very complex public policy issue in China as concerns over on animal welfare and empathy for animals have grown. Science-based conservation strategies that are oriented toward sustainable wildlife management (SWM) are under threat as these new attitudes and values emerge and take hold. This study accesses the attitudes of college students towards SWM and wildlife conservation, and investigates demographic characteristics influencing their attitudes in China, a country that is traditionally associated with consumptive use of wildlife and SWM, but where new ideas about wildlife conservation are emerging. From October 2018 to April 2019, nine universities (including “Double First-Class” universities, first-tier universities, second-tier universities), and four three-year colleges in China were selected as survey locations, and face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1991 students. A total of 1977 questionnaires were recovered, of which 1739 were valid, with a completion rate of 88%. A Likert seven-point scale method was used to score students’ attitudes, and a classification and regression tree (CART) was used to analyze whether their attitudes were affected by their demographic characteristics. The results show that although students are broadly supportive of the theory of SWM, some are deeply antagonistic about on SWM on issues that arouse strong emotions such as “Animal Welfare and Rights” and “Trophy Hunting”. Demographic characteristics of students affect their degree of support for the SWM with support for SWM lower among vegetarians, freshmen, and students who have taken environmental protection electives. This research suggests that the theory of SWM requires to be refreshed and adapted to appeal to the younger generation of Chinese students, with SWM principles integrated into the environmental education programs of universities and three-year colleges. More attention should also be attached to media publicity by the government about wildlife conservation so as to enhance awareness of the need for SWM.

When management meets science: adaptive analysis for the optimization of the eradication of the Northern raccoon (Procyon lotor)

The EU Regulation no.1143/2014 on invasive species requires the EU Member States to respond promptly and efficiently in eradicating the invasive alien species listed as species of Union concern. The Northern raccoon (Procyon lotor) was introduced in Northern Italy along the river Adda and we carried out its eradication campaign between 2016 and 2019. We used an integrated approach of camera traps and live traps. A standardized approach to the camera trap survey (2904 camera trap-nights) revealed that the detectability of raccoons (0.27 ± 0.07 SD) increased in the proximity of the river and their occupancy (0.15 ± 0.09 SD) was higher in urban areas. These results allowed us to increase the trapping success whilst reducing the effort. During the captures, systematic collection of catch and effort data allowed to estimate population size (65 ± 7.8 raccoons) and thus to have a continuous update on how far the campaign was from the complete eradication of the species, allowing to adjust the trapping effort accordingly. We captured 69 raccoons (7279 cage trap nights) thanks to both systematic trapping and opportunistic activation of traps following stakeholders’ reports. Stakeholders supported the campaign and some of them played an important role in reporting sightings, signs, and allowing access to their private land. Camera trap data also allowed us to make a Rapid Eradication Assessment that estimated an eradication probability of 99% after 6 months without detections. We finally give indications for future control campaigns on the species to increase removal success, reducing the effort.

New aliens in Australia: 18 years of vertebrate interceptions

Abstract ContextAustralia has a high diversity of endemic vertebrate fauna. Yet, transnational human activities continue to increase the rate of transportation, introduction and establishment of new alien vertebrates in Australia, to the detriment of environmental and socioeconomic services. Eradication of invasive vertebrates is often costly and without guarantee of success; therefore, methods for detecting, intercepting and preventing the transport of alien species earlier in the invasion pathway provide substantial benefit. AimTo anticipate emergent threats to Australian biosecurity posed by the transport and introduction of new alien vertebrates over time. MethodsWe collated vertebrate interception data from various mainland Australian State, Territory and Commonwealth government reporting agencies, including data from a previously published study, at both pre-border and post-border stages from 1999 to 2016. Using generalised linear and generalised additive modelling, we predicted trends in interception frequency using predictors such as vertebrate taxa, detection category and alien status. Key resultsInterception frequency increased over time for all vertebrate classes, for pre-border stowaways and for post-border captive and at-large interceptions, with no saturation in the accumulation of new species over time. Five species were responsible for almost half of all incidents, of which red-eared sliders (Trachemys scripta elegans), boa constrictors (Boa constrictor) and corn snakes (Pantherophis guttatus) are prominent in Australia’s illegal alien pet trade. Rose-ringed parakeets (Psittacula krameri) are prominent in the legal alien cage-bird trade, which remains poorly regulated. Asian common toads (Duttaphrynus melanostictus) were frequently detected as stowaways, and most stowaway incidents originated from Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, via shipping. Data deficiency for pre-border incidents increased rapidly in 2015 and 2016. ConclusionsAustralia is subject to a persistent and increasing risk of alien vertebrate introductions and incursions over time, owing partly to emergent trends in the alien pet trade as well as increased global trade and tourism. ImplicationsThe future of Australia’s biosecurity remains dependent on stringent border security to prevent the arrival of novel species, but our findings also highlight the importance of ongoing management and control of high-risk species already present, often illegally, within Australia.

Rapid eradication assessment (REA): a tool for pest absence confirmation

Abstract ContextEradication of invasive species is necessary to protect and assist the recovery of native species and ecosystems. Knowing when to declare an eradication has been successful after ongoing non-detections is a challenge. AimsThe rapid eradication assessment (REA) model is a powerful simulation framework to determine, given model parameters and a fixed level of monitoring effort, the level of confidence in declaring the success of pest eradication. The aim of the present study was to extend the current functionality of the REA model for broader applicability. MethodsThe REA model was advanced so that it was able to account for (1) usage of multiple static device types with different probabilities of detection, (2) incursion detection at a known location and (3) usage of mobile detection devices, which are increasingly being used in conservation. Key resultsAn invasive rat incursion response on Great Mercury Island in New Zealand is used as a comprehensive example to demonstrate the distribution of estimated probability of pest absence among the cases using the current REA model and the extensions presented here. ConclusionsAlthough Great Mercury Island already had a sparse but extensive island-wide network of static biosecurity surveillance devices, and deployed additional static devices around the area of incursion, the greatest improvement in the estimated probability of pest absence following a rat incursion was from additionally using a trained rodent-detection dog. ImplicationsThe added functionality in the REA model and demonstration of its use on a real-world scenario will allow more realistic application by wildlife managers.

Right place. Right time. Right tool: guidance for using target analysis to increase the likelihood of invasive species detection

In response to the National Invasive Species Council’s 2016–2018 Management Plan, this paper provides guidance on applying target analysis as part of a comprehensive framework for the early detection of and rapid response to invasive species (EDRR). Target analysis is a strategic approach for detecting one or more invasive species at a specific locality and time, using a particular method and/or technology(ies). Target analyses, which are employed across a wide range of disciplines, are intended to increase the likelihood of detection of a known target in order to maximize survey effectiveness and cost-efficiency. Although target analyses are not yet a standard approach to invasive species management, some federal agencies are employing target analyses in principle and/or in part to improve EDRR capacities. These initiatives can provide a foundation for a more standardized and comprehensive approach to target analyses. Guidance is provided for improving computational information. Federal agencies and their partners would benefit from a concerted effort to collect the information necessary to perform rigorous target analyses and make it available through open access platforms.

The need for spatially explicit quantification of benefits in invasive-species management

Worldwide, invasive species are a leading driver of environmental change across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater environments and cost billions of dollars annually in ecological damages and economic losses. Resources limit invasive-species control, and planning processes are needed to identify cost-effective solutions. Thus, studies are increasingly considering spatially variable natural and socioeconomic assets (e.g., species persistence, recreational fishing) when planning the allocation of actions for invasive-species management. There is a need to improve understanding of how such assets are considered in invasive-species management. We reviewed over 1600 studies focused on management of invasive species, including flora and fauna. Eighty-four of these studies were included in our final analysis because they focused on the prioritization of actions for invasive species management. Forty-five percent (n = 38) of these studies were based on spatial optimization methods, and 35% (n = 13) accounted for spatially variable assets. Across all 84 optimization studies considered, 27% (n = 23) explicitly accounted for spatially variable assets. Based on our findings, we further explored the potential costs and benefits to invasive species management when spatially variable assets are explicitly considered or not. To include spatially variable assets in decision-making processes that guide invasive-species management there is a need to quantify environmental responses to invasive species and to enhance understanding of potential impacts of invasive species on different natural or socioeconomic assets. We suggest these gaps could be filled by systematic reviews, quantifying invasive species impacts on native species at different periods, and broadening sources and enhancing sharing of knowledge.

I smell a rat! Estimating effective sweep width for searches using wildlife-detector dogs

Context Dogs are often used to find rare or cryptic species, but search methods are not standardised, making it difficult to interpret and compare results. Standardised approaches are needed to optimise search effectiveness and/or efficiency. Designing an optimal search strategy requires knowledge of the effective sweep width, which is related to the probability of detection (POD) at various distances between the searcher and the search object. Aims Our primary aim was to estimate effective sweep width for wildlife-detector dogs searching for rodents. We also tested whether dogs differed in their reaction on encountering a laboratory rat (Rattus norvegicus) or a wild-caught Norway rat (wild-type R. norvegicus). Methods We conducted field trials using trained rodent-detector dogs to locate dead laboratory rats. We used the numbers of detections and non-detections at distances of 0–100 m to estimate detection probability and effective sweep width. Key results Dog teams located 100% of rats (regardless of strain) placed directly in their search path. POD declined rapidly with an increasing distance, yielding an observed detection rate of 33% at 10 m, and close to zero at ≥20 m. The data were best described by an exponential decay function. Effective sweep width was estimated to be 16.8 m (95% confidence interval 12.3–21.4 m), corresponding to a strip extending 8.4 m on either side of a walked track. Handlers could not consistently judge whether a dog had encountered a laboratory rat or a wild rat. Conclusions Our results suggest that when dogs are >10 m from a source of rat odour, POD declines sharply. We estimate that the effective distance explored when searching for a stationary rodent is 8.4 m either side of the search path. Implications This information will allow users to optimise the search pattern that dog teams should follow for a given search scenario.

Eradicating invasive rodents from wet and dry tropical islands in Mexico

Eradications of invasive rodents from tropical islands have a lower success rate compared to temperate islands. In the tropics the wide range of physical and biological conditions results in a wide variety of island biomes, with unique challenges and windows of opportunity for rodent eradications. We describe and compare research and operational details of six successful eradications of invasive mice Mus musculus and ship rats Rattus rattus carried out during 2011–2015. The work was conducted on six islands in two distinct tropical archipelagos in Mexico (one dry in the Gulf of Mexico; one wet in the Caribbean), and included the first eradication of rats from a mangrove-dominated island > 500 ha. Invasive rodent populations varied among species and islands, even neighbouring islands; overall density was higher on wet islands. Physical and biological features, including the presence of land crabs, determined eradication timing and rates of bait broadcast (higher on wet islands). An interval of 6–10 days between the two bait applications per island was sufficient to eradicate actively breeding mouse and rat populations. Impacts on non-target species were negligible, including those on wild and captive iguanas. Eradication success was rapidly confirmed based on ground monitoring and statistical modelling. Rodent eradications on larger tropical islands should be achievable with directed research to inform planning and implementation.