Species‐specific spatiotemporal patterns of leopard, lion and tiger attacks on humans

How effective are interventions to reduce attacks on people from large carnivores? A systematic review protocol

BACKGROUND

Instances of attacks from large carnivores that lead to human injury or death are increasingly reported worldwide. Ensuring human safety when people and carnivores co-occur is central to minimizing human suffering but is also essential to support sustainable carnivore conservation. Various interventions are available intended to alter either the behavior of large carnivores or people, in order to reduce the likelihood of a risky encounter and an attack. Collated evidence on best practices is still lacking, and this protocol outlines a systematic review of evidence for intervention effectiveness to reduce the risk or severity of direct attacks on humans by large carnivores. Specifically, the review seeks to answer the question: How effective are evaluated interventions in reducing large carnivore attacks on people?

METHODS

The bibliographic databases Zoological Record, BIOSIS Citation Index, and Scopus will be searched using a predefined search string. Grey literature will be requested through professional networks, contacts with relevant organizations, and searching selected websites. All returned titles and abstracts will be manually screened using Rayyan.ai. For inclusion, studies should describe the Population, Intervention, Comparator, and Outcome (PICO) of the review research question and be written in English, Spanish, or Swedish. Review papers will be excluded. All records of data coding and extraction are documented in a purposely developed, and priorly piloted, data sheet. Critical appraisal of study validity will be done according to the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence Critical Appraisal Tool prototype version 0.3. Review outcomes will be synthesized in a narrative, and if possible, a quantitative synthesis. The narrative synthesis will describe in text the carnivore population (species, location), context (target object, intervention model), as well as the design and reported results of each study. The quantitative synthesis will include a summary statistic, preferably logarithmic risk ratio, calculated for each original study. A forest plot will be created to visualize study outcomes, as well as judgments of critical appraisal. Provided that enough data is available and that it complies with its assumptions, a meta-regression analysis will be undertaken using metafor package for R software.

A worldwide perspective on large carnivore attacks on humans

Large carnivores have long fascinated human societies and have profound influences on ecosystems. However, their conservation represents one of the greatest challenges of our time, particularly where attacks on humans occur. Where human recreational and/or livelihood activities overlap with large carnivore ranges, conflicts can become particularly serious. Two different scenarios are responsible for such overlap: In some regions of the world, increasing human populations lead to extended encroachment into large carnivore ranges, which are subject to increasing contraction, fragmentation, and degradation. In other regions, human and large carnivore populations are expanding, thus exacerbating conflicts, especially in those areas where these species were extirpated and are now returning. We thus face the problem of learning how to live with species that can pose serious threats to humans. We collected a total of 5,440 large carnivore (Felidae, Canidae, and Ursidae; 12 species) attacks worldwide between 1950 and 2019. The number of reported attacks increased over time, especially in lower-income countries. Most attacks (68%) resulted in human injuries, whereas 32% were fatal. Although attack scenarios varied greatly within and among species, as well as in different areas of the world, factors triggering large carnivore attacks on humans largely depend on the socioeconomic context, with people being at risk mainly during recreational activities in high-income countries and during livelihood activities in low-income countries. The specific combination of local socioeconomic and ecological factors is thus a risky mix triggering large carnivore attacks on humans, whose circumstances and frequencies cannot only be ascribed to the animal species. This also implies that effective measures to reduce large carnivore attacks must also consider the diverse local ecological and social contexts.

Predicting negative human-tiger (Panthera tigris) interactions in mosaic landscapes around Dudhwa and Pilibhit tiger reserves in India

Negative interactions between humans and large carnivores like tigers (Panthera tigris) and leopards (Panthera pardus) are of concern for the conservation of these carnivores, as well as for the health and wellbeing of people who experience such interactions routinely. Such interactions not only lead to human deaths, injuries and loss of domestic animals, but also can result in retaliatory persecution of carnivores and cause their population declines. The Dudhwa-Pilibhit landscape in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh is popularly regarded to be the second most affected hotspot of human-tiger conflicts in the country. Yet, very little information is published on human-tiger conflicts in this landscape. In this study, we recorded 7.4 ± 5.8 (range: 1-20) negative interactions per year between people and tigers that led directly to human deaths and injuries. Although there appeared to be peaks in negative interactions in more recent years, these were found to be statistically non-significant. The peaks in the numbers of cases in 2009-10 and 2016-17 can be attributed to higher numbers of human casualties cause by individual ‘problem’ tigers, and not due to an increase in the number of tigers engaging in conflicts. We used binomial generalized linear modelling to model the risk to humans from being attacked by tigers depending on landscape characteristics. This approach demonstrated that the mosaics of forests and human settlements, especially the presence of agriculture, forest patches and waterbodies, were the predominant factors at play. Notably, higher risks were not mediated by the presence of larger cattle population. Proximity of villages to forests or natural vegetation patches was the most significantly contributing factor identified by the model output. This suggested that despite the prevalent perception of attacks on humans occurring in human-dominated areas of this landscape, areas with forests or other natural vegetation entailed higher risks. This was corroborated by field observations, with most attacks occurring within, or close to, forests or dense vegetation. Based on these findings, we recommend that restricting human movements and taking precautionary measures in high-risk areas can significantly reduce negative interactions with tigers in our study area.

Drivers of predator-proof boma disrepair in the Amboseli Ecosystem, Kenya

As natural habitats continue to shrink in Kenya's Amboseli Ecosystem, livestock depredation by lions Panthera leo threatens both the livelihoods of pastoralist communities and the lion populations affected by retaliatory killings. Finding ways for people and carnivores to coexist at the landscape scale is crucial to the long-term persistence of many threatened animal populations. The fortification of existing traditional bomas to make them predator-proof reduces night-time depredation of livestock. However, the sustainability and cost-effectiveness of such an initiative rely on boma owners taking responsibility for the upkeep and repair of their bomas. In August 2018 we surveyed 88 predator-proof bomas constructed during 2012–2018 and recorded their characteristics and levels of damage. We examined which variables influence disrepair, using a series of statistical analyses, including generalized linear mixed models. Our results reveal there was more disrepair in bomas constructed with wooden posts, confirming the benefit of using recycled plastic posts; in bomas with lower livestock density, suggesting that fewer animals could cause more damage or that such damage is not repaired; and in bomas located further away from a neighbouring predator-proof boma, suggesting a social element in encouraging or enabling boma owners to carry out maintenance. We recommend the consideration and further investigation of this social influence in guiding and improving the sustainability of conservation programmes that use predator-proof bomas, with a view to reducing negative interactions between pastoralists and lions.

Fostering Coexistence Between People and Large Carnivores in Africa: Using a Theory of Change to Identify Pathways to Impact and Their Underlying Assumptions

Coexistence with large carnivores poses challenges to human well-being, livelihoods, development, resource management, and policy. Even where people and carnivores have historically coexisted, traditional patterns of behavior toward large carnivores may be disrupted by wider processes of economic, social, political, and climate change. Conservation interventions have typically focused on changing behaviors of those living alongside large carnivores to promote sustainable practices. While these interventions remain important, their success is inextricably linked to broader socio-political contexts, including natural resource governance and equitable distribution of conservation-linked costs and benefits. In this context we propose a Theory of Change to identify logical pathways of action through which coexistence with large carnivores can be enhanced. We focus on Africa's dryland landscapes, known for their diverse guild of large carnivores that remain relatively widespread across the continent. We review the literature to understand coexistence and its challenges; explain our Theory of Change, including expected outcomes and pathways to impact; and discuss how our model could be implemented and operationalized. Our analysis draws on the experience of coauthors, who are scientists and practitioners, and on literature from conservation, political ecology, and anthropology to explore the challenges, local realities, and place-based conditions under which expected outcomes succeed or fail. Three pathways to impact were identified: (a) putting in place good governance harmonized across geographic scales; (b) addressing coexistence at the landscape level; and (c) reducing costs and increasing benefits of sharing a landscape with large carnivores. Coordinated conservation across the extensive, and potentially transboundary, landscapes needed by large carnivores requires harmonization of top-down approaches with bottom-up community-based conservation. We propose adaptive co-management approaches combined with processes for active community engagement and informed consent as useful dynamic mechanisms for navigating through this contested space, while enabling adaptation to climate change. Success depends on strengthening underlying enabling conditions, including governance, capacity, local empowerment, effective monitoring, and sustainable financial support. Implementing the Theory of Change requires ongoing monitoring and evaluation to inform adaptation and build confidence in the model. Overall, the model provides a flexible and practical framework that can be adapted to dynamic local socio-ecological contexts.

A Framework for Estimating Human-Wildlife Conflict Probabilities Conditional on Species Occupancy

Managing human-wildlife conflicts (HWCs) is an important conservation objective for the many terrestrial landscapes dominated by humans. Forecasting where future conflicts are likely to occur and assessing risks to lives and livelihoods posed by wildlife are central to informing HWC management strategies. Existing assessments of the spatial occurrence patterns of HWC are based on either understanding spatial patterns of past conflicts or patterns of species distribution. In the former case, the absence of conflicts at a site cannot be attributed to the absence of the species. In the latter case, the presence of a species may not be an accurate measure of the probability of conflict occurrence. We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that integrates conflict reporting data and species distribution data, thus allowing the estimation of the probability that conflicts with a species are reported from a site, conditional on the species being present. In doing so, our model corrects for both false-positive and false-negative conflict reporting errors. We provide study design recommendations using simulations that explore the performance of the model under a range of conflict reporting probabilities. We applied the model to data on wild boar (Sus scrofa) space use and conflicts collected from the Central Terai Landscape (CTL), an important tiger conservation landscape in India. We found that tolerance for wildlife was a predictor of the probability with which farmers report conflict with wild boars from sites not used by the species. We also discuss useful extensions of the model when conflict data are verified for potential false-positive errors and when landscapes are monitored over multiple seasons.

Social and environmental factors influencing contemporary cases of wolf aggression towards people in Poland

Understanding factors and mechanisms causing large carnivore aggression towards people is crucial for their conservation in modern human-dominated landscapes. We present detailed descriptions of wolf attacks on people in early summer 2018 in two areas of Poland, analysis of behaviour, fitness and origin of individuals responsible for the attacks and management actions undertaken by local communities as well as governmental bodies and non-governmental organisations. We show that attacks were caused by yearling wolves (13-month-old male and 14-month-old female) originating from local packs, which appeared near households several months prior to incidents. Both individuals were positively food-conditioned and showed increasing habituation caused by irresponsible behaviour of people such as long-lasting intentional feeding or illegal keeping. Post mortem necropsy revealed obesity and serious abnormality of spleen (polysplenia) in the problem female wolf that negatively impacted her fitness and was the most likely reason for her presence near households and feeding on leftovers. Despite prolonged observations of these wolves very close to human settlements (less than 30 m), no mitigation actions were undertaken until the attacks, after which both individuals were killed. We provide several recommendations to avoid aggressive human-carnivore encounters.

Something Scary Is Out There: Remembrances of Where the Threat Was Located by Preschool Children and Adults with Nighttime Fear

Young children frequently report imaginary scary things in their bedrooms at night. This study examined the remembrances of 140 preschool children and 404 adults selecting either above, side, or below locations for a scary thing relative to their beds. The theoretical framework for this investigation posited that sexual-size dimorphism in Australopithecus afarensis, the presumed human ancestor in the Middle Pliocene, constrained sleeping site choice to mitigate predation. Smaller-bodied females nesting in trees would have anticipated predatory attacks from below, while male nesting on the ground would have anticipated attacks from their side. Such anticipation of nighttime attacks from below is present in many arboreal primates and might still persist as a cognitive relict in humans. In remembrances of nighttime fear, girls and women were predicted to select the below location and males the side location. Following interviews of children and adult questionnaires, multinomial log-linear analyses indicated statistically significant interactions (p < 0.001) of sex by location for the combined sample and each age class driven, in part, by larger frequencies of males selecting the side location and females selecting the below location. Data partitioning further revealed that males selected the side location at larger frequencies (p < 0.001) than the below location, whereas female selection of side and below locations did not differ significantly. While indicative of evolutionary persistence in cognitive appraisal of threat locations, the female hypothesis did not consider natural selection acting on assessment of nighttime terrestrial threats following the advent of early Homo in the Late Pliocene.

The impact of leopards (Panthera pardus) on livestock losses and human injuries in a human-use landscape in Maharashtra, India

There are many ways in which large carnivores and humans interact in shared spaces. In this study we provide insights into human-leopard relationships in an entirely modified, human-dominated landscape inhabited by dense populations of humans (266 per km²), their livestock (162 per km²) and relatively high densities of large predators (10 per 100 km²). No human deaths were recorded, and livestock losses to leopards numbered only 0.45 per km²per year (averaged over three years) despite the almost complete dependency of leopards on domestic animals as prey. Predation was not the major cause of livestock mortality as diseases and natural causes caused higher losses (80% of self-reported losses). We also found that ineffective night time livestock protection and the presence of domestic dogs increased the probability of a farmer facing leopard attacks on livestock. Resident farmers faced much lower livestock losses to leopard predation in contrast to the migratory shepherds who reported much higher losses, but rarely availed of the government compensation schemes. We recommend that local wildlife managers continue to shift from reactive measures such as leopard captures after livestock attacks to proactive measures such as focusing on effective livestock protection and informing the affected communities about safety measures to be taken where leopards occur in rural landscapes. The natural causes of livestock deaths due do diseases may be better prevented by involving animal husbandry department for timely vaccinations and treatment.