Predicting the spatial dynamics of Wolbachia infections in Aedes aegypti arbovirus vector populations in heterogeneous landscapes

Wolbachia pipientis (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae) mediated effects on the fitness and performance of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) under variable temperatures and initial larval densities

Wolbachia pipientis (Hertig, 1936), also referred as Wolbachia, is a bacterium present across insect taxa, certain strains of which have been demonstrated to impact the fitness and capacity to transmit viruses in mosquitoes, particularly Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762). Most studies examine these impacts in limited sets of environmental regimes. Here we seek to understand the impacts of environmentally relevant conditions such as larval density, temperature, and their interaction on wAlbB-infected A. aegypti. Using a factorial design, we measured wAlbB stability (relative density, post-emergence in females, and in progeny), the ability for wAlbB to induce cytoplasmic incompatibility, and bacterial effects on mosquito fitness (fecundity, fertility, and body mass) and performance (adult survival and time to pupation) across 2 temperature regimes (fluctuating and constant) and 2 initial larval densities (low and high). Fluctuating daily regimes of temperature (27 to 40 °C) led to decreased post-emergence wAlbB density and increased wAlbB density in eggs compared to constant temperature (27 °C). An increased fecundity was found in wAlbB-carrying females reared at fluctuating temperatures compared to uninfected wild-type females. wAlbB-carrying adult females showed significantly increased survival than wild-type females. Contrarily, wAlbB-carrying adult males exhibited a significantly lower survival than wild-type males. We found differential effects of assessed treatments (Wolbachia infection status, temperature, and larval density) across mosquito sexes and life stages. Taken together, our results indicate that realistic conditions may not impact dramatically the stability of wAlbB infection in A. aegypti. Nonetheless, understanding the ecological consequence of A. aegypti-wAlbB interaction is complex due to life history tradeoffs under conditions faced by natural populations.

Genomic and Phenotypic Comparisons Reveal Distinct Variants of Wolbachia Strain wAlbB

The intracellular bacterium Wolbachia inhibits virus replication and is being harnessed around the world to fight mosquito-borne diseases through releases of mosquitoes carrying the symbiont. Wolbachia strains vary in their ability to invade mosquito populations and suppress viruses in part due to differences in their density within the insect and associated fitness costs. Using whole-genome sequencing, we demonstrate the existence of two variants in wAlbB, a Wolbachia strain being released in natural populations of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The two variants display striking differences in genome architecture and gene content. Differences in the presence/absence of 52 genes between variants include genes located in prophage regions and others potentially involved in controlling the symbiont's density. Importantly, we show that these genetic differences correlate with variation in wAlbB density and its tolerance to heat stress, suggesting that different wAlbB variants may be better suited for field deployment depending on local environmental conditions. Finally, we found that the wAlbB genome remained stable following its introduction in a Malaysian mosquito population. Our results highlight the need for further genomic and phenotypic characterization of Wolbachia strains in order to inform ongoing Wolbachia-based programs and improve the selection of optimal strains in future field interventions. IMPORTANCE Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes that threatens around half of the world population. Recent advances in dengue control involve the introduction of Wolbachia bacterial symbionts with antiviral properties into mosquito populations, which can lead to dramatic decreases in the incidence of the disease. In light of these promising results, there is a crucial need to better understand the factors affecting the success of such strategies, in particular the choice of Wolbachia strain for field releases and the potential for evolutionary changes. Here, we characterized two variants of a Wolbachia strain used for dengue control that differ at the genomic level and in their ability to replicate within the mosquito. We also found no evidence for the evolution of the symbiont within the 2 years following its deployment in Malaysia. Our results have implications for current and future Wolbachia-based health interventions.

Spatio-Temporal Modelling Informing Wolbachia Replacement Releases in a Low Rainfall Climate

Releases of Aedes aegypti carrying Wolbachia bacteria are known to suppress arbovirus transmission and reduce the incidence of vector-borne diseases. In planning for Wolbachia releases in the arid environment of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, we collected entomological data with ovitraps across a 7-month period in four locations. Herein, we show that mosquito presence in basements does not differ from that of non-basement areas of buildings. In modelling mosquito presence across the study sites, we found the spatial structure to be statistically significant in one of the four sites, while a significant spatial structure was found for egg production data across three of the four sites. The length scales of the spatial covariance functions fitted to the egg production data ranged from 143 m to 574 m, indicating that high productivity regions can be extensive in size. Rank-correlation analyses indicated that mosquito presence tended to persist from the dry to wet season, but that egg production ranks at locations could reverse. The data suggest that, in Jeddah, the quality of the local environment for breeding can vary over time. The data support the feasibility of dry season releases but with release numbers needing to be flexible depending on local rates of invasion.

Designing effective Wolbachia release programs for mosquito and arbovirus control

Mosquitoes carrying endosymbiotic bacteria called Wolbachia are being released in mosquito and arbovirus control programs around the world through two main approaches: population suppression and population replacement. Open field releases of Wolbachia-infected male mosquitoes have achieved over 95% population suppression by reducing the fertility of wild mosquito populations. The replacement of populations with Wolbachia-infected females is self-sustaining and can greatly reduce local dengue transmission by reducing the vector competence of mosquito populations. Despite many successful interventions, significant questions and challenges lie ahead. Wolbachia, viruses and their mosquito hosts can evolve, leading to uncertainty around the long-term effectiveness of a given Wolbachia strain, while few ecological impacts of Wolbachia releases have been explored. Wolbachia strains are diverse and the choice of strain to release should be made carefully, taking environmental conditions and the release objective into account. Mosquito quality control, thoughtful community awareness programs and long-term monitoring of populations are essential for all types of Wolbachia intervention. Releases of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes show great promise, but existing control measures remain an important way to reduce the burden of mosquito-borne disease.

Simulating an invasion: unsealed water storage (rainwater tanks) and urban block design facilitate the spread of the dengue fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti, in Brisbane, Australia

Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) was once highly prevalent across eastern Australia, resulting in epidemics of dengue fever. Drought conditions have led to a rapid rise in semi-permanent, urban water storage containers called rainwater tanks known to be critical larval habitat for the species. The presence of these larval habitats has increased the risk of establishment of highly urbanised, invasive mosquito vectors such as Ae. aegypti. Here we use a spatially explicit network model to examine the role that unsealed rainwater tanks may play in population connectivity of an Ae. aegypti invasion in suburbs of Brisbane, a major Australian city. We characterise movement between rainwater tanks as a diffusion-like process, limited by a maximum distance of movement, average life expectancy, and a probability that Ae. aegypti will cross wide open spaces such as roads. The simulation model was run against a number of scenarios that examined population spread through the rainwater tank network based on non-compliance rates of tanks (unsealed or sealed) and road grids. We show that Ae. aegypti tank infestation and population spread was greatest in areas of high tank density and road lengths were shortest e.g. cul-de-sacs. Rainwater tank non-compliance rates of over 30% show increased connectivity when compared to less than 10%, suggesting rainwater tanks non-compliance should be maintained under this level to minimize the spread of an invading Ae. aegypti population. These results presented as risk maps of Ae. aegypti spread across Brisbane, can assist health and government authorities on where to optimally target rainwater tank surveillance and educational activities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-021-02619-z.

Effectiveness of Wolbachia-infected mosquito deployments in reducing the incidence of dengue and other Aedes-borne diseases in Niterói, Brazil: A quasi-experimental study

BACKGROUND

The introduction of the bacterium Wolbachia (wMel strain) into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes reduces their capacity to transmit dengue and other arboviruses. Evidence of a reduction in dengue case incidence following field releases of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti has been reported previously from a cluster randomised controlled trial in Indonesia, and quasi-experimental studies in Indonesia and northern Australia.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Following pilot releases in 2015-2016 and a period of intensive community engagement, deployments of adult wMel-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were conducted in Niterói, Brazil during 2017-2019. Deployments were phased across four release zones, with a total area of 83 km2 and a residential population of approximately 373,000. A quasi-experimental design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of wMel deployments in reducing dengue, chikungunya and Zika incidence. An untreated control zone was pre-defined, which was comparable to the intervention area in historical dengue trends. The wMel intervention effect was estimated by controlled interrupted time series analysis of monthly dengue, chikungunya and Zika case notifications to the public health surveillance system before, during and after releases, from release zones and the control zone. Three years after commencement of releases, wMel introgression into local Ae. aegypti populations was heterogeneous throughout Niterói, reaching a high prevalence (>80%) in the earliest release zone, and more moderate levels (prevalence 40-70%) elsewhere. Despite this spatial heterogeneity in entomological outcomes, the wMel intervention was associated with a 69% reduction in dengue incidence (95% confidence interval 54%, 79%), a 56% reduction in chikungunya incidence (95%CI 16%, 77%) and a 37% reduction in Zika incidence (95%CI 1%, 60%), in the aggregate release area compared with the pre-defined control area. This significant intervention effect on dengue was replicated across all four release zones, and in three of four zones for chikungunya, though not in individual release zones for Zika.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We demonstrate that wMel Wolbachia can be successfully introgressed into Ae. aegypti populations in a large and complex urban setting, and that a significant public health benefit from reduced incidence of Aedes-borne disease accrues even where the prevalence of wMel in local mosquito populations is moderate and spatially heterogeneous. These findings are consistent with the results of randomised and non-randomised field trials in Indonesia and northern Australia, and are supportive of the Wolbachia biocontrol method as a multivalent intervention against dengue, chikungunya and Zika.

Modelling the Wolbachia incompatible insect technique: strategies for effective mosquito population elimination

BACKGROUND

The Wolbachia incompatible insect technique (IIT) shows promise as a method for eliminating populations of invasive mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Culicidae) and reducing the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. Successful implementation of this biological control strategy relies on high-fidelity separation of male from female insects in mass production systems for inundative release into landscapes. Processes for sex-separating mosquitoes are typically error-prone and laborious, and IIT programmes run the risk of releasing Wolbachia-infected females and replacing wild mosquito populations.

RESULTS

We introduce a simple Markov population process model for studying mosquito populations subjected to a Wolbachia-IIT programme which exhibit an unstable equilibrium threshold. The model is used to study, in silico, scenarios that are likely to yield a successful elimination result. Our results suggest that elimination is best achieved by releasing males at rates that adapt to the ever-decreasing wild population, thus reducing the risk of releasing Wolbachia-infected females while reducing costs.

CONCLUSIONS

While very high-fidelity sex separation is required to avoid establishment, release programmes tend to be robust to the release of a small number of Wolbachia-infected females. These findings will inform and enhance the next generation of Wolbachia-IIT population control strategies that are already showing great promise in field trials.

Gene Drive Dynamics in Natural Populations: The Importance of Density Dependence, Space, and Sex

The spread of synthetic gene drives is often discussed in the context of panmictic populations connected by gene flow and described with simple deterministic models. Under such assumptions, an entire species could be altered by releasing a single individual carrying an invasive gene drive, such as a standard homing drive. While this remains a theoretical possibility, gene drive spread in natural populations is more complex and merits a more realistic assessment. The fate of any gene drive released in a population would be inextricably linked to the population's ecology. Given the uncertainty often involved in ecological assessment of natural populations, understanding the sensitivity of gene drive spread to important ecological factors is critical. Here we review how different forms of density dependence, spatial heterogeneity, and mating behaviors can impact the spread of self-sustaining gene drives. We highlight specific aspects of gene drive dynamics and the target populations that need further research.

Embracing Dynamic Models for Gene Drive Management

Robust methods of predicting how gene drive systems will interact with ecosystems is essential for safe deployment of gene drive technology. We describe how quantitative tools can reduce risk uncertainty, streamline empirical research, guide risk management, and promote cross-sector collaboration throughout the process of gene drive technology development and implementation.

Modeling confinement and reversibility of threshold-dependent gene drive systems in spatially-explicit Aedes aegypti populations

Background

The discovery of CRISPR-based gene editing and its application to homing-based gene drive systems has been greeted with excitement, for its potential to control mosquito-borne diseases on a wide scale, and concern, for the invasiveness and potential irreversibility of a release. Gene drive systems that display threshold-dependent behavior could potentially be used during the trial phase of this technology, or when localized control is otherwise desired, as simple models predict them to spread into partially isolated populations in a confineable manner, and to be reversible through releases of wild-type organisms. Here, we model hypothetical releases of two recently engineered threshold-dependent gene drive systems—reciprocal chromosomal translocations and a form of toxin-antidote-based underdominance known as UD^MEL—to explore their ability to be confined and remediated.

Results

We simulate releases of Aedes aegypti, the mosquito vector of dengue, Zika, and other arboviruses, in Yorkeys Knob, a suburb of Cairns, Australia, where previous biological control interventions have been undertaken on this species. We monitor spread to the neighboring suburb of Trinity Park to assess confinement. Results suggest that translocations could be introduced on a suburban scale, and remediated through releases of non-disease-transmitting male mosquitoes with release sizes on the scale of what has been previously implemented. UD^MEL requires fewer releases to introduce, but more releases to remediate, including of females capable of disease transmission. Both systems are expected to be confineable to the release site; however, spillover of translocations into neighboring populations is less likely.

Conclusions

Our analysis supports the use of translocations as a threshold-dependent drive system capable of spreading disease-refractory genes into Ae. aegypti populations in a confineable and reversible manner. It also highlights increased release requirements when incorporating life history and population structure into models. As the technology nears implementation, further ecological work will be essential to enhance model predictions in preparation for field trials.

Population Dynamics of Underdominance Gene Drive Systems in Continuous Space

Underdominance systems can quickly spread through a population, but only when introduced in considerable numbers. This promises a gene drive mechanism that is less invasive than homing drives, potentially enabling new approaches in the fight against vector-borne diseases. If regional confinement can indeed be achieved, the decision-making process for a release would likely be much simpler compared to other, more invasive types of drives. The capacity of underdominance gene drive systems to spread in a target population without invading other populations is typically assessed via network models of panmictic demes linked by migration. However, it remains less clear how such systems would behave in more realistic population models where organisms move over a continuous landscape. Here, we use individual-based simulations to study the dynamics of several proposed underdominance systems in continuous-space. We find that all these systems can fail to persist in such environments, even after an initially successful establishment in the release area, confirming previous theoretical results from diffusion theory. At the same time, we find that a two-locus two-toxin-antidote system can invade connected demes through a narrow migration corridor. This suggests that the parameter space where underdominance systems can establish and persist in a release area while at the same time remaining confined to that area could be quite limited, depending on how a population is spatially structured. Overall, these results indicate that realistic spatial context must be considered when assessing strategies for the deployment of underdominance drives.

Establishment of wMel Wolbachia in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and reduction of local dengue transmission in Cairns and surrounding locations in northern Queensland, Australia

Background: The wMel strain of Wolbachia has been successfully introduced into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and subsequently shown in laboratory studies to reduce transmission of a range of viruses including dengue, Zika, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Mayaro viruses that cause human disease. Here we report the entomological and epidemiological outcomes of staged deployment of Wolbachia across nearly all significant dengue transmission risk areas in Australia. Methods: The  wMel strain of  Wolbachia was backcrossed into the local  Aedes aegypti genotype (Cairns and Townsville backgrounds) and mosquitoes were released in the field by staff or via community assisted methods. Mosquito monitoring was undertaken and mosquitoes were screened for the presence of  Wolbachia. Dengue case notifications were used to track dengue incidence in each location before and after releases. Results: Empirical analyses of the Wolbachia mosquito releases, including data on the density, frequency and duration of Wolbachia mosquito releases, indicate that Wolbachia can be readily established in local mosquito populations, using a variety of deployment options and over short release durations (mean release period 11 weeks, range 2-22 weeks). Importantly, Wolbachia frequencies have remained stable in mosquito populations since releases for up to 8 years. Analysis of dengue case notifications data demonstrates near-elimination of local dengue transmission for the past five years in locations where Wolbachia has been established. The regression model estimate of Wolbachia intervention effect from interrupted time series analyses of case notifications data prior to and after releases, indicated a 96% reduction in dengue incidence in Wolbachia treated populations (95% confidence interval: 84 - 99%). Conclusion: Deployment of the wMel strain of Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations across the Australian regional cities of Cairns and most smaller regional communities with a past history of dengue has resulted in the reduction of local dengue transmission across all deployment areas.

Establishment of wMel Wolbachia in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and reduction of local dengue transmission in Cairns and surrounding locations in northern Queensland, Australia

Background: The wMel strain of Wolbachia has been successfully introduced into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and subsequently shown in laboratory studies to reduce transmission of a range of viruses including dengue, Zika, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Mayaro viruses that cause human disease. Here we report the entomological and epidemiological outcomes of staged deployment of Wolbachia across nearly all significant dengue transmission risk areas in Australia.

Methods: The  wMel strain of  Wolbachia was backcrossed into the local  Aedes aegypti genotype (Cairns and Townsville backgrounds) and mosquitoes were released in the field by staff or via community assisted methods. Mosquito monitoring was undertaken and mosquitoes were screened for the presence of  Wolbachia. Dengue case notifications were used to track dengue incidence in each location before and after releases.

Results: Empirical analyses of the Wolbachia mosquito releases, including data on the density, frequency and duration of Wolbachia mosquito releases, indicate that Wolbachia can be readily established in local mosquito populations, using a variety of deployment options and over short release durations (mean release period 11 weeks, range 2-22 weeks). Importantly, Wolbachia frequencies have remained stable in mosquito populations since releases for up to 8 years. Analysis of dengue case notifications data demonstrates near-elimination of local dengue transmission for the past five years in locations where Wolbachia has been established. The regression model estimate of Wolbachia intervention effect from interrupted time series analyses of case notifications data prior to and after releases, indicated a 96% reduction in dengue incidence in Wolbachia treated populations (95% confidence interval: 84 – 99%).

Conclusion: Deployment of the wMel strain of Wolbachia into local Ae. aegypti populations across the Australian regional cities of Cairns and most smaller regional communities with a past history of dengue has resulted in the reduction of local dengue transmission across all deployment areas.