Combining seascape connectivity with cumulative impact assessment in support of ecosystem‐based marine spatial planning

Aquatic connectivity: challenges and solutions in a changing climate

The challenge of managing aquatic connectivity in a changing climate is exacerbated in the presence of additional anthropogenic stressors, social factors, and economic drivers. Here we discuss these issues in the context of structural and functional connectivity for aquatic biodiversity, specifically fish, in both the freshwater and marine realms. We posit that adaptive management strategies that consider shifting baselines and the socio-ecological implications of climate change will be required to achieve management objectives. The role of renewable energy expansion, particularly hydropower, is critically examined for its impact on connectivity. We advocate for strategic spatial planning that incorporates nature-positive solutions, ensuring climate mitigation efforts are harmonized with biodiversity conservation. We underscore the urgency of integrating robust scientific modelling with stakeholder values to define clear, adaptive management objectives. Finally, we call for innovative monitoring and predictive decision-making tools to navigate the uncertainties inherent in a changing climate, with the goal of ensuring the resilience and sustainability of aquatic ecosystems.

Evaluating the combined effect of climate and anthropogenic stressors on marine coastal ecosystems: Insights from a systematic review of cumulative impact assessment approaches

Cumulative impacts increasingly threaten marine and coastal ecosystems. To address this issue, the research community has invested efforts on designing and testing different methodological approaches and tools that apply cumulative impact appraisal schemes for a sound evaluation of the complex interactions and dynamics among multiple pressures affecting marine and coastal ecosystems. Through an iterative scientometric and systematic literature review, this paper provides the state of the art of cumulative impact assessment approaches and applications. It gives a specific attention to cutting-edge approaches that explore and model inter-relations among climatic and anthropogenic pressures, vulnerability and resilience of marine and coastal ecosystems to these pressures, and the resulting changes in ecosystem services flow. Despite recent advances in computer sciences and the rising availability of big data for environmental monitoring and management, this literature review evidenced that the implementation of advanced complex system methods for cumulative risk assessment remains limited. Moreover, experts have only recently started integrating ecosystem services flow into cumulative impact appraisal frameworks, but more as a general assessment endpoint within the overall evaluation process (e.g. changes in the bundle of ecosystem services against cumulative impacts). The review also highlights a lack of integrated approaches and complex tools able to frame, explain, and model spatio-temporal dynamics of marine and coastal ecosystems' response to multiple pressures, as required under relevant EU legislation (e.g., Water Framework and Marine Strategy Framework Directives). Progress in understanding cumulative impacts, exploiting the functionalities of more sophisticated machine learning-based approaches (e.g., big data integration), will support decision-makers in the achievement of environmental and sustainability objectives.

The Ecological Observing System of the Adriatic Sea (ECOAdS): structure and perspectives within the main European biodiversity and environmental strategies

This Policy Brief succinctly presents the Ecological Observing System of the Adriatic Sea (ECOAdS), aimed at integrating the ecological and oceanographic dimensions within the conservation strategy of the Natura 2000 network, and to propose a way to go for its future development and maintenance. After a definition of marine ecological observatories, we describe the current structure of ECOAdS, its key components and potential relevance in relation to the main European strategies for biodiversity and marine observation for the next decade. Finally, we suggest some actions that could be undertaken for the future development of ECOAdS, targeting possible perspectives in different regional, macro-regional, national and European strategic contexts. This Policy Brief is one of the outcomes of the Interreg Italy-Croatia Project ECOSS (ECological Observing System in the Adriatic Sea: oceanographic observations for biodiversity; https://www.italy-croatia.eu/web/ecoss), which had the main purpose to design and carry out the first steps for the establishment of ECOAdS.

Evaluating eDNA for Use within Marine Environmental Impact Assessments

In this review, the use of environmental DNA (eDNA) within Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is evaluated. EIA documents provide information required by regulators to evaluate the potential impact of a development project. Currently eDNA is being incorporated into biodiversity assessments as a complementary method for detecting rare, endangered or invasive species. However, questions have been raised regarding the maturity of the field and the suitability of eDNA information as evidence for EIA. Several key issues are identified for eDNA information within a generic EIA framework for marine environments. First, it is challenging to define the sampling unit and optimal sampling strategy for eDNA with respect to the project area and potential impact receptor. Second, eDNA assay validation protocols are preliminary at this time. Third, there are statistical issues around the probability of obtaining both false positives (identification of taxa that are not present) and false negatives (non-detection of taxa that are present) in results. At a minimum, an EIA must quantify the uncertainty in presence/absence estimates by combining series of Bernoulli trials with ad hoc occupancy models. Finally, the fate and transport of DNA fragments is largely unknown in environmental systems. Shedding dynamics, biogeochemical and physical processes that influence DNA fragments must be better understood to be able to link an eDNA signal with the receptor’s state. The biggest challenge is that eDNA is a proxy for the receptor and not a direct measure of presence. Nonetheless, as more actors enter the field, technological solutions are likely to emerge for these issues. Environmental DNA already shows great promise for baseline descriptions of the presence of species surrounding a project and can aid in the identification of potential receptors for EIA monitoring using other methods.