Forecasting the future establishment of invasive alien freshwater fish species

Contemporary perspectives on the ecological impacts of invasive freshwater fishes

Introductions of non-native freshwater fish continue to increase globally, although only a small proportion of these introductions will result in an invasion. These invasive populations can cause ecological impacts in the receiving ecosystem through processes including increased competition and predation pressure, genetic introgression and the transmission of non-native pathogens. Definitions of ecological impact emphasize that shifts in the strength of these processes are insufficient for characterizing impact alone and, instead, must be associated with a quantifiable decline of biological and/or genetic diversity and lead to a measurable loss of diversity or change in ecosystem functioning. Assessments of ecological impact should thus consider the multiple processes and effects that potentially occur from invasive fish populations where, for example, impacts of invasive common carp Cyprinus carpio populations are through a combination of bottom-up and top-down processes that, in entirety, cause shifts in lake stable states and decreased species richness and/or abundances in the biotic communities. Such far-reaching ecological impacts also align to contemporary definitions of ecosystem collapse, given they involve substantial and persistent declines in biodiversity and ecosystem functions that cannot be recovered unaided. Thus, while not all introduced freshwater fishes will become invasive, those species that do develop invasive populations can cause substantial ecological impacts, where some of the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning might be sufficiently harmful to be considered as contributing to ecosystem collapse.

Risk Assessment Model System for Aquatic Animal Introduction Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

The spread of invasive species (IS) has the potential to upset ecosystem balances. In extreme cases, this can hinder economical utilization of both aquatic (fisheries) and terrestrial (agricultural) systems. As a result, many countries regard risk assessment of IS as an important process for solving the problem of biological invasion. Yet, some IS are purposefully introduced for what is seen as their potential economic benefits. Thus, conducting IS risk assessments and then formulating policies based on scientific information will allow protocols to be developed that can reduce problems associated with IS incursions, whether occurring purposefully or not. However, the risk assessment methods currently adopted by most countries use qualitative or semiquantitative methodologies. Currently, there is a mismatch between qualitative and quantitative assessments. Moreover, most assessment systems are for terrestrial animals. What is needed is an assessment system for aquatic animals; however, those currently available are relatively rudimentary. To fill this gap, we used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to build a risk assessment model system for aquatic IS. Our AHP has four primary indexes, twelve secondary indexes, and sixty tertiary indexes. We used this AHP to conduct quantitative risk assessments on five aquatic animals that are typically introduced in China, which have distinct biological characteristics, specific introduction purposes, and can represent different types of aquatic animals. The assessment results show that the risk grade for Pterygoplichthys pardalis is high; the risk grade for Macrobrachium rosenbergii, Crassostrea gigas, and Trachemys scripta elegans is medium; and the grade risk for Ambystoma mexicanum is low. Risk assessment of the introduction of aquatic animals using our AHP is effective, and it provides support for the introduction and healthy breeding of aquatic animals. Thus, the AHP model can provide a basis for decision-making risk management concerning the introduction of species.

Modelling temperature-driven changes in species associations across freshwater communities

Due to global climate change-induced shifts in species distributions, estimating changes in community composition through the use of Species Distribution Models has become a key management tool. Being able to determine how species associations change along environmental gradients is likely to be pivotal in exploring the magnitude of future changes in species' distributions. This is particularly important in connectivity-limited ecosystems, such as freshwater ecosystems, where increased human translocation is creating species associations over previously unseen environmental gradients. Here, we use a large-scale presence-absence dataset of freshwater fish from lakes across the Fennoscandian region in a Joint Species Distribution Model, to measure the effect of temperature on species associations. We identified a trend of negative associations between species tolerant of cold waters and those tolerant of warmer waters, as well as positive associations between several more warm-tolerant species, with these associations often shifting depending on local temperatures. Our results confirm that freshwater ecosystems can expect to see a large-scale shift towards communities dominated by more warm-tolerant species. While there remains much work to be done to predict exactly where and when local extinctions may take place, the model implemented provides a starting-point for the exploration of climate-driven community trends. This approach is especially informative in regards to determining which species associations are most central in shaping future community composition, and which areas are most vulnerable to local extinctions.