Phylodynamic analysis of an emergent Mycobacterium bovis outbreak in an area with no previously known wildlife infections

Population structure and history of Mycobacterium bovis European 3 clonal complex reveal transmission across ecological corridors of unrecognized importance in Portugal

Mycobacterium bovis causes animal tuberculosis in livestock and wildlife, with an impact on animal health and production, wildlife management, and public health. In this work, we sampled a multi-host tuberculosis community from the official hotspot risk area of Portugal over 16 years, generating the largest available data set in the country. Using phylogenetic and ecological modeling, we aimed to reconstruct the history of circulating lineages across the livestock-wildlife interface to inform intervention and the implementation of genomic surveillance within the official eradication plan. We find evidence for the co-circulation of M. bovis European 1 (Eu1), Eu2, and Eu3 clonal complexes, with Eu3 providing sufficient temporal signal for further phylogenetic investigation. The Eu3 most recent common ancestor (bovine) was dated in the 1990s, subsequently transitioning to wildlife (red deer and wild boar). Isolate clustering based on sample metadata was used to inform phylogenetic inference, unravelng frequent transmission between two clusters that represent an ecological corridor of previously unrecognized importance in Portugal. The latter was associated with transmission at the livestock-wildlife interface toward locations with higher temperature and precipitation, lower agriculture and road density, and lower host densities. This is the first analysis of M. bovis Eu3 complex in Iberia, shedding light on background ecological factors underlying long-term transmission and informing where efforts could be focused within the larger hotspot risk area of Portugal.

IMPORTANCE

Efforts to strengthen surveillance and control of animal tuberculosis (TB) are ongoing worlwide. Here, we developed an eco-phylodynamic framework based on discrete phylogenetic approaches informed by M. bovis whole-genome sequence data representing a multi-host transmission system at the livestock-wildlife interface, within a rich ecological landscape in Portugal, to understand transmission processes and translate this knowledge into disease management benefits. We find evidence for the co-circulation of several M. bovis clades, with frequent transmission of the Eu3 lineage among cattle and wildlife populations. Most transition events between different ecological settings took place toward host, climate and land use gradients, underscoring animal TB expansion and a potential corridor of unrecognized importance for M. bovis maintenance. Results stress that animal TB is an established wildlife disease without ecological barriers, showing that control measures in place are insufficient to prevent long-distance transmission and spillover across multi-host communities, demanding new interventions targeting livestock-wildlife interactions.

Intra- and interspecies infectious neighbourhoods as determinant parameters for Mycobacterium bovis infection among badgers in southwestern France

The epidemiological system for Mycobacterium bovis in France involves cattle and, in some areas, wildlife species (mainly badgers and wild boar). This multi-host aspect complicates the control and eradication prospects for bovine tuberculosis in endemic areas, despite the surveillance and control measures implemented for decades in this officially tuberculosis-free European country. To improve control measures, and to manage spillback transmission from badgers to cattle, it is necessary to clarify the transmission mechanisms of M. bovis in these epidemiological systems. We modelled a badger population from a southwestern endemic area by a Dirichlet tessellation based on a sett census conducted by local hunters and trappers between 2013 and 2015. We then used a logistic regression model to test the association between the infection status of setts and computed variables depicting three types of transmission (intraspecific, interspecific and landscape-associated). The apparent prevalence of infected setts was of 40.5%. Two variables were significantly associated with the probability for a sett to be infected: the proportion of neighbouring setts that were infected (OR: 3.19 [2.04-5.17]95%) and the presence of nearby pastures belonging to an infected farm (OR: 2.33 [1.13-4.89]95%]. While badger culling measures have been implemented according to the national TB control plan in the study area since 2012 (in the vicinity of infected farms and their pastures), our results clearly highlight the need to reinforce measures aimed at reducing both intraspecific and interspecific infection pressure. For this purpose, the promising prospect of badger vaccination could be considered, along with biosecurity measures.

Whole-Genome sequencing in routine Mycobacterium bovis epidemiology - scoping the potential

Mycobacterium bovis the main agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), presents as a series of spatially-localised micro-epidemics across landscapes. Classical molecular typing methods applied to these micro-epidemics, based on genotyping a few variable loci, have significantly improved our understanding of potential epidemiological links between outbreaks. However, they have limited utility owing to low resolution. Conversely, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) provides the highest resolution data available for molecular epidemiology, producing richer outbreak tracing, insights into phylogeography and epidemic evolutionary history. We illustrate these advantages by focusing on a common single lineage of M. bovis (1.140) from Northern Ireland. Specifically, we investigate the spatial sub-structure of 20 years of herd-level multi locus VNTR analysis (MLVA) surveillance data and WGS data from a down sampled subset of isolates of this MLVA type over the same time frame. We mapped 2108 isolate locations of MLVA type 1.140 over the years 2000-2022. We also mapped the locations of 148 contemporary WGS isolates from this lineage, over a similar geographic range, stratifying by single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) relatedness cut-offs of 15 SNPs. We determined a putative core range for the 1.140 MLVA type and SNP-defined sequence clusters using a 50 % kernel density estimate, using cattle movement data to inform on likely sources of WGS isolates found outside of core ranges. Finally, we applied Bayesian phylogenetic methods to investigate past population history and reproductive number of the 1.140 M. bovis lineage. We demonstrate that WGS SNP-defined clusters exhibit smaller core ranges than the established MLVA type - facilitating superior disease tracing. We also demonstrate the superior functionality of WGS data in determining how this lineage was disseminated across the landscape, likely via cattle movement and to infer how its effective population size and reproductive number has been in flux since its emergence. These initial findings highlight the potential of WGS data for routine monitoring of bTB outbreaks.

The Irish bTB eradication programme: combining stakeholder engagement and research-driven policy to tackle bovine tuberculosis

A new Irish bovine tuberculosis (bTB) eradication strategy was launched in 2021. The strategy was formulated following extensive discussions with stakeholders, formal reviews of several aspects of the existing bTB policy and relevant inputs from the latest scientific research projects. A stakeholder discussion body, the TB Forum, had been established in 2018 and this continues under the new strategy, supported by three working groups (scientific, financial and implementation). The strategy sets out actions to address cattle-to-cattle and badger-to-cattle bTB transmission, along with actions to improve farm biosecurity and empower farmers to make their own choices to reduce bTB risk.Large scale vaccination of badgers has been rolled out under the new strategy, with over 20,000 km2 covered by the vaccination programme and 6,586 badgers captured in vaccination areas in 2021. Vaccination efforts have been complemented by intensive communications campaigns, including a web enabled software application ("app") enabling farmers to report the location of badger setts.Cattle which test inconclusive to the tuberculin skin test have been re-tested using a gamma interferon blood test since April 2021, enabling truly infected cattle to be identified more effectively due to the higher sensitivity of this test. An enhanced oversight process has been put in place for herds experiencing extended or repeat bTB breakdowns. Whole genome sequencing is being used to investigate links between breakdowns, with the results supporting operational decision making in case management.Communications, including biosecurity advice, are co-designed with stakeholders, in order to improve their effectiveness. A programme involving veterinary practitioners providing tailored biosecurity bTB advice to their clients was established in 2021 and was rolled out nationally during 2022.A core element of the new strategy is the continual improvement of policies in response to changing bTB risks, informed by scientific research and then implemented with stakeholder consultation.

Spatial association of Mycobacterium bovis infection in cattle and badgers at the pasture interface in an endemic area in France

Despite control and surveillance programmes, Mycobacterium bovis, the main aetiologic agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), is still detected on cattle farms and in wildlife populations in France, especially in badgers in the French Côte-d'Or département. The aim of our study was to find out if infected badgers were trapped significantly closer to pastures of infected farms than non-infected badgers and, if so, to determine the most efficient distance around those pastures for badger trapping, particularly for surveillance purposes. We studied two subareas (southern and northern), chosen based on natural barriers to badger movements and according to the presence of pastures belonging to infected farms (POIFs) and infected or non-infected badgers. In each subarea, we computed the shortest distances D0 and D between badgers trapped a given year n between 2015 and 2019 (n = 59 infected and n = 1535 non-infected badgers for D0; n = 53 infected and n = 1476 non-infected badgers for D) and POIFs designated as infected between the year n - 4 and n + 1 (respectively n = 373 and n = 388 POIFs). D0 was calculated without considering spoligotypes, while D was calculated considering the possible epidemiological link between infected badgers and POIFs by using bTB spoligotype information. Then, we computed the observed mean and median of the D0 and D distances and used a bootstrap analysis to test if infected badgers were found significantly closer to POIFs than non-infected badgers. We observed that infection of badgers was not independent of distance from POIF in both subareas but distances (D0 or D) were different between the northern and southern subarea. In the northern subarea, which displays a mosaic landscape (mean and median D distances were respectively 612 m and 303 m for infected badgers), infected badgers indeed were trapped closer to POIFs, considering D0 and D. In the southern subarea, predominantly forested, infected badgers were significantly closer to POIFs than non-infected badgers when considering D0 but not for D (mean and median D distances were respectively 7148 m and 4831 m for infected badgers). These results will help to determine the most efficient distance from POIFs to trap badgers to determine their infection status in countryside landscapes. They also highlight the need to better understand the epidemiological systems at play in more forested landscapes where badgers may behave differently or other susceptible sympatric wild species might play a more important role in the circulation of M. bovis, both phenomena contributing to badger infection at greater distances from POIFs.

Large scale spatio-temporal modelling of risk factors associated with tuberculosis exposure at the wildlife-livestock interface

The management of animal tuberculosis (TB) is a priority for European Union animal health authorities. However, and despite all the efforts made to date, a significant part of Spain has as yet been unable to obtain the officially tuberculosis-free (OTF) status. Information regarding wildlife disease status is usually scarce, signifying that the role played by wildlife is usually ignored or poorly assessed in large-scale TB risk factor studies. The National Wildlife Health Surveillance Plan in Spain now provides information on infection rates in wildlife reservoirs at a national level, but there are limitations as regards the sample size, the spatio-temporal distribution of the samples, and the lack of homogeneity of the diagnostic techniques employed. The objective of the study described herein was, therefore, to employ a Bayesian approach with the intention of identifying the risk factors associated with four TB rates in cattle: prevalence, incidence, maintenance and persistence in Spain during the period 2014-2019. The modeling approach included highly informative spatio-temporal latent effects with which to control the limitations of the data. Variation partitioning procedures were carried out, and the pure effect of each factor was mapped in order to identify the most relevant factors associated with TB dynamics in cattle in each region. This made it possible to disclose that the movement of cattle, particularly from counties with herd incidence > 1%, was the main driver of the TB dynamics in cattle. The abundance of herds bred for bullfighting was retained in all four models, but had less weight than the movements. After accounting for farm-related factors, the TB prevalence in wild boar was retained in all the models and was significantly related to incidence, maintenance and persistence. With regard to the incidence, variation partitioning revealed that wildlife was the most explicative factor, thus suggesting that it plays a role in the introduction of the pathogen into uninfected herds, and consequently highlighting its importance in breakdowns. These results show, for the first time on a national scale, that wild ungulates play a relevant role in the spatio-temporal variability of TB in cattle, particularly as regards their disease status. Moreover, the spatial representation of the pure effect of each factor made it possible to identify which factors are driving the disease dynamics in each region, thus showing that it is a valuable tool with which to focus efforts towards achieving the OTF status.

Inferring bovine tuberculosis transmission between cattle and badgers via the environment and risk mapping

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is one of the most challenging and persistent health issues in many countries worldwide. In several countries, bTB control is complicated due to the presence of wildlife reservoirs of infection, i.e. European badger (Meles meles) in Ireland and the UK, which can transmit infection to cattle. However, a quantitative understanding of the role of cattle and badgers in bTB transmission is elusive, especially where there is spatial variation in relative density between badgers and cattle. Moreover, as these two species have infrequent direct contact, environmental transmission is likely to play a role, but the quantitative importance of the environment has not been assessed. Therefore, the objective of this study is to better understand bTB transmission between cattle and badgers via the environment in a spatially explicit context and to identify high-risk areas. We developed an environmental transmission model that incorporates both within-herd/territory transmission and between-species transmission, with the latter facilitated by badger territories overlapping with herd areas. Model parameters such as transmission rate parameters and the decay rate parameter of M. bovis were estimated by maximum likelihood estimation using infection data from badgers and cattle collected during a 4-year badger vaccination trial. Our estimation showed that the environment can play an important role in the transmission of bTB, with a half-life of M. bovis in the environment of around 177 days. Based on the estimated transmission rate parameters, we calculate the basic reproduction ratio (R) within a herd, which reveals how relative badger density dictates transmission. In addition, we simulated transmission in each small local area to generate a first between-herd R map that identifies high-risk areas.

Horizon scanning: what next for bovine TB control in England?

England is currently in year nine of its 25-year strategy to achieve TB freedom. This talk will speculate on what new tools and approaches could be introduced in the future to help us achieve our goal.Using Defra's response to the independent review of its TB programme as a starting point and building on the plenary talk by the UK CVO, I will look at some opportunities that could arise under the different aspects of the response.Firstly, how best to help farmers reduce their herd TB risk through better informed purchasing decisions will be considered, including looking at the recent publication of the health ratings for every cattle herd in England.Cattle vaccination, and its associated DIVA test could be the biggest change in Tb control in England in many years while the related development of a molecularly defined tuberculin which could become the default testing reagent.Advances in whole genome sequencing will allow us to sequence the genome of M.bovis isolated from most infected herds in England and these data could unlock a variety of opportunities from tracing the spread of infection to ground-truthing the efficacy of testing and epidemiological assessment of breakdowns.Finally, the move to vaccination as the primary way of controlling TB in badgers with culling used very sparingly will be considered using a case study of how a targeted badger cull successfully removed infection from an area in Cumbria and enabled the switch to vaccination.

Unraveling the epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis using whole-genome sequencing combined with environmental and demographic data

When studying the dynamics of a pathogen in a host population, one crucial question is whether it transitioned from an epidemic (i.e., the pathogen population and the number of infected hosts are increasing) to an endemic stable state (i.e., the pathogen population reached an equilibrium). For slow-growing and slow-evolving clonal pathogens such as Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine (or animal) and zoonotic tuberculosis, it can be challenging to discriminate between these two states. This is a result of the combination of suboptimal detection tests so that the actual extent of the pathogen prevalence is often unknown, as well as of the low genetic diversity, which can hide the temporal signal provided by the accumulation of mutations in the bacterial DNA. In recent years, the increased availability, efficiency, and reliability of genomic reading techniques, such as whole-genome sequencing (WGS), have significantly increased the amount of information we can use to study infectious diseases, and therefore, it has improved the precision of epidemiological inferences for pathogens such as M. bovis. In this study, we use WGS to gain insights into the epidemiology of M. bovis in Cameroon, a developing country where the pathogen has been reported for decades. A total of 91 high-quality sequences were obtained from tissue samples collected in four abattoirs, 64 of which were with complete metadata. We combined these with environmental, demographic, ecological, and cattle movement data to generate inferences using phylodynamic models. Our findings suggest M. bovis in Cameroon is slowly expanding its epidemiological range over time; therefore, endemic stability is unlikely. This suggests that animal movement plays an important role in transmission. The simultaneous prevalence of M. bovis in co-located cattle and humans highlights the risk of such transmission being zoonotic. Therefore, using genomic tools as part of surveillance would vastly improve our understanding of disease ecology and control strategies.

Analysis of a multi-type resurgence of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle and badgers in Southwest France, 2007-2019

Although control measures to tackle bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle have been successful in many parts of Europe, this disease has not been eradicated in areas where Mycobacterium bovis circulates in multi-host systems. Here we analyzed the resurgence of 11 M. bovis genotypes (defined based on spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR) detected in 141 farms between 2007 and 2019, in an area of Southwestern France where wildlife infection was also detected from 2012 in 65 badgers. We used a spatially-explicit model to reconstruct the simultaneous diffusion of the 11 genotypes in cattle farms and badger populations. Effective reproduction number R was estimated to be 1.34 in 2007-2011 indicating a self-sustained M. bovis transmission by a maintenance community although within-species Rs were both < 1, indicating that neither cattle nor badger populations acted as separate reservoir hosts. From 2012, control measures were implemented, and we observed a decrease of R below 1. Spatial contrasts of the basic reproduction ratio suggested that local field conditions may favor (or penalize) local spread of bTB upon introduction into a new farm. Calculation of generation time distributions showed that the spread of M. bovis has been more rapid from cattle farms (0.5-0.7 year) than from badger groups (1.3-2.4 years). Although eradication of bTB appears possible in the study area (since R < 1), the model suggests it is a long-term prospect, because of the prolonged persistence of infection in badger groups (2.9-5.7 years). Supplementary tools and efforts to better control bTB infection in badgers (including vaccination for instance) appear necessary.

Bovine tuberculosis in youngstock cattle: A narrative review

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, remains a high-priority global pathogen of concern. The role of youngstock animals in the epidemiology of bTB has not been a focus of contemporary research. Here we have aimed to collate and summarize what is known about the susceptibility, diagnosis, transmission (infectiousness), and epidemiology to M. bovis in youngstock (up to 1-year of age). Youngstock are susceptible to M. bovis infection when exposed, with the capacity to develop typical bTB lesions. Calves can be exposed through similar routes as adults, via residual infection, contiguous neighborhood spread, wildlife spillback infection, and the buying-in of infected but undetected cattle. Dairy systems may lead to greater exposure risk to calves relative to other production systems, for example, via pooled milk. Given their young age, calves tend to have shorter bTB at-risk exposure periods than older cohorts. The detection of bTB varies with age when using a wide range of ante-mortem diagnostics, also with post-mortem examination and confirmation (histological and bacteriological) of infection. When recorded as positive by ante-mortem test, youngstock appear to have the highest probabilities of any age cohort for confirmation of infection post-mortem. They also appear to have the lowest false negative bTB detection risk. In some countries, many calves are moved to other herds for rearing, potentially increasing inter-herd transmission risk. Mathematical models suggest that calves may also experience lower force of infection (the rate that susceptible animals become infected). There are few modeling studies investigating the role of calves in the spread and maintenance of infection across herd networks. One study found that calves, without operating testing and control measures, can help to maintain infection and lengthen the time to outbreak eradication. Policies to reduce testing for youngstock could lead to infected calves remaining undetected and increasing onwards transmission. Further studies are required to assess the risk associated with changes to testing policy for youngstock in terms of the impact for within-herd disease control, and how this may affect the transmission and persistence of infection across a network of linked herds.

Selective sweep sites and SNP dense regions differentiate Mycobacterium bovis isolates across scales

Mycobacterium bovis, a bacterial zoonotic pathogen responsible for the economically and agriculturally important livestock disease bovine tuberculosis (bTB), infects a broad mammalian host range worldwide. This characteristic has led to bidirectional transmission events between livestock and wildlife species as well as the formation of wildlife reservoirs, impacting the success of bTB control measures. Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) has transformed our ability to understand disease transmission events by tracking variant sites, however the genomic signatures related to host adaptation following spillover, alongside the role of other genomic factors in the M. bovis transmission process are understudied problems. We analyzed publicly available M. bovis datasets collected from 700 hosts across three countries with bTB endemic regions (United Kingdom, United States, and New Zealand) to investigate if genomic regions with high SNP density and/or selective sweep sites play a role in Mycobacterium bovis adaptation to new environments (e.g., at the host-species, geographical, and/or sub-population levels). A simulated M. bovis alignment was created to generate null distributions for defining genomic regions with high SNP counts and regions with selective sweeps evidence. Random Forest (RF) models were used to investigate evolutionary metrics within the genomic regions of interest to determine which genomic processes were the best for classifying M. bovis across ecological scales. We identified in the M. bovis genomes 14 and 132 high SNP density and selective sweep regions, respectively. Selective sweep regions were ranked as the most important in classifying M. bovis across the different scales in all RF models. SNP dense regions were found to have high importance in the badger and cattle specific RF models in classifying badger derived isolates from livestock derived ones. Additionally, the genes detected within these genomic regions harbor various pathogenic functions such as virulence and immunogenicity, membrane structure, host survival, and mycobactin production. The results of this study demonstrate how comparative genomics alongside machine learning approaches are useful to investigate further the nature of M. bovis host-pathogen interactions.

A Bayesian evolutionary model towards understanding wildlife contribution to F4-family Mycobacterium bovis transmission in the South-West of France

In two “départements” in the South-West of France, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) outbreaks due to Mycobacterium bovis spoligotype SB0821 have been identified in cattle since 2002 and in wildlife since 2013. Using whole genome sequencing, the aim of our study was to clarify badger contribution to bTB transmission in this area. We used a Bayesian evolutionary model, to infer phylogenetic trees and migration rates between two pathogen populations defined by their host-species. In order to account for sampling bias, sub-population structure was inferred using the marginal approximation of the structured coalescent (Mascot) implemented in BEAST2. We included 167 SB0821 strains (21 isolated from badgers and 146 from cattle) and identified 171 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We selected a HKY model and a strict molecular clock. We estimated a badger-to-cattle transition rate (median: 2.2 transitions/lineage/year) 52 times superior to the cattle-to-badger rate (median: 0.042 transitions/lineage/year). Using the maximum clade credibility tree, we identified that over 75% of the lineages from 1989 to 2000 were present in badgers. In addition, we calculated a median of 64 transition events from badger-to-cattle (IQR: 10–91) and a median of zero transition event from cattle-to-badger (IQR: 0–3). Our model enabled us to infer inter-species transitions but not intra-population transmission as in previous epidemiological studies, where relevant units were farms and badger social groups. Thus, while we could not confirm badgers as possible intermediaries in farm-to-farm transmission, badger-to-cattle transition rate was high and we confirmed long-term presence of M.bovis in the badger population in the South-West of France.