Community‐level responses of African carnivores to prescribed burning

Modeling mammal response to fire based on species' traits

Fire has shaped ecological communities worldwide for millennia, but impacts of fire on individual species are often poorly understood. We performed a meta-analysis to predict which traits, habitat, or study variables and fire characteristics affect how mammal species respond to fire. We modeled effect sizes of measures of population abundance or occupancy as a function of various combinations of these traits and variables with phylogenetic least squares regression. Nine of 115 modeled species (7.83%) returned statistically significant effect sizes, suggesting most mammals are resilient to fire. The top-ranked model predicted a negative impact of fire on species with lower reproductive rates, regardless of fire type (estimate = -0.68), a positive impact of burrowing in prescribed fires (estimate = 1.46) but not wildfires, and a positive impact of average fire return interval for wildfires (estimate = 0.93) but not prescribed fires. If a species' International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment includes fire as a known or possible threat, the species was predicted to respond negatively to wildfire relative to prescribed fire (estimate = -2.84). These findings provide evidence of experts' abilities to predict whether fire is a threat to a mammal species and the ability of managers to meet the needs of fire-threatened species through prescribed fire. Where empirical data are lacking, our methods provide a basis for predicting mammal responses to fire and thus can guide conservation actions or interventions in species or communities.

Fire as a driver and mediator of predator-prey interactions

Both fire and predators have strong influences on the population dynamics and behaviour of animals, and the effects of predators may either be strengthened or weakened by fire. However, knowledge of how fire drives or mediates predator–prey interactions is fragmented and has not been synthesised. Here, we review and synthesise knowledge of how fire influences predator and prey behaviour and interactions. We develop a conceptual model based on predator–prey theory and empirical examples to address four key questions: (i) how and why do predators respond to fire; (ii) how and why does prey vulnerability change post‐fire; (iii) what mechanisms do prey use to reduce predation risk post‐fire; and (iv) what are the outcomes of predator–fire interactions for prey populations? We then discuss these findings in the context of wildlife conservation and ecosystem management before outlining priorities for future research. Fire‐induced changes in vegetation structure, resource availability, and animal behaviour influence predator–prey encounter rates, the amount of time prey are vulnerable during an encounter, and the conditional probability of prey death given an encounter. How a predator responds to fire depends on fire characteristics (e.g. season, severity), their hunting behaviour (ambush or pursuit predator), movement behaviour, territoriality, and intra‐guild dynamics. Prey species that rely on habitat structure for avoiding predation often experience increased predation rates and lower survival in recently burnt areas. By contrast, some prey species benefit from the opening up of habitat after fire because it makes it easier to detect predators and to modify their behaviour appropriately. Reduced prey body condition after fire can increase predation risk either through impaired ability to escape predators, or increased need to forage in risky areas due to being energetically stressed. To reduce risk of predation in the post‐fire environment, prey may change their habitat use, increase sheltering behaviour, change their movement behaviour, or use camouflage through cryptic colouring and background matching. Field experiments and population viability modelling show instances where fire either amplifies or does not amplify the impacts of predators on prey populations, and vice versa. In some instances, intense and sustained post‐fire predation may lead to local extinctions of prey populations. Human disruption of fire regimes is impacting faunal communities, with consequences for predator and prey behaviour and population dynamics. Key areas for future research include: capturing data continuously before, during and after fires; teasing out the relative importance of changes in visibility and shelter availability in different contexts; documenting changes in acoustic and olfactory cues for both predators and prey; addressing taxonomic and geographic biases in the literature; and predicting and testing how changes in fire‐regime characteristics reshape predator–prey interactions. Understanding and managing the consequences for predator–prey communities will be critical for effective ecosystem management and species conservation in this era of global change.