Student Enrollment and Teacher Statistics Forecasting Based on Time-Series Analysis

Education competitiveness is a key feature of national competitiveness. It is crucial for nations to develop and enhance student and teacher potential to increase national competitiveness. The decreasing population of children has caused a series of social problems in many developed countries, directly affecting education and com.petitiveness in an international environment. In Taiwan, a low birthrate has had a large impact on schools at every level because of a substantial decrease in enrollment and a surplus of teachers. Therefore, close attention must be paid to these trends. In this study, combining a whale optimization algorithm (WOA) and support vector regression (WOASVR) was proposed to determine trends of student and teacher numbers in Taiwan for higher accuracy in time-series forecasting analysis. To select the most suitable support vector kernel parameters, WOA was applied. Data collected from the Ministry of Education datasets of student and teacher numbers between 1991 and 2018 were used to examine the proposed method. Analysis revealed that the numbers of students and teachers decreased annually except in private primary schools. A comparison of the forecasting results obtained from WOASVR and other common models indicated that WOASVR provided the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) for all analyzed datasets. Forecasting performed using the WOASVR method can provide accurate data for use in developing education policies and responses.

Theoretical models of cognitive aging and implications for translational research in medicine

PURPOSE

We provide an overview of theoretical models of cognitive aging and present empirical research that uses these models to explain older patients' medical behaviors and to develop interventions for improving the delivery of health information and services to older adults.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Theoretical accounts of age and cognition are summarized and are related to key research findings, including age differences in comprehension of medical information, adherence, and use of medical technologies. The implications of cognitive aging theories for designing optimal medical environments and enhancing adherence are discussed.

RESULTS

Age declines in basic cognitive abilities such as working memory capacity limit older adults' ability to comprehend and recall several types of novel medical information. In contrast, automatic processes and environmental cues can benefit older adults, as shown by age increases in compliance for practiced or mentally imaged health behaviors, but can also be dangerous, as shown by older adults' greater belief in false but familiar health statements. Last, cognitive aging is shown to be a useful model for investigating cognitive disorders.

IMPLICATIONS

Cognitive aging theories are important for understanding older patient behaviors and suggest age-related declines as well as gains in performance in medical domains. In addition, models of cognitive aging are useful in guiding the development of interventions that improve health care in older patients and in furthering our understanding of cognitive dysfunction in populations other than older adults.