Ranking Hospitals Based on Preventable Hospital Death Rates: A Systematic Review With Implications for Both Direct Measurement and Indirect Measurement Through Standardized Mortality Rates

Safer and more efficient vital signs monitoring protocols to identify the deteriorating patients in the general hospital ward: an observational study

Background

The frequency at which patients should have their vital signs (e.g. blood pressure, pulse, oxygen saturation) measured on hospital wards is currently unknown. Current National Health Service monitoring protocols are based on expert opinion but supported by little empirical evidence. The challenge is finding the balance between insufficient monitoring (risking missing early signs of deterioration and delays in treatment) and over-observation of stable patients (wasting resources needed in other aspects of care).

Objective

Provide an evidence-based approach to creating monitoring protocols based on a patient's risk of deterioration and link these to nursing workload and economic impact.

Design

Our study consisted of two parts: (1) an observational study of nursing staff to ascertain the time to perform vital sign observations; and (2) a retrospective study of historic data on patient admissions exploring the relationships between National Early Warning Score and risk of outcome over time. These were underpinned by opinions and experiences from stakeholders.

Setting and participants

Observational study: observed nursing staff on 16 randomly selected adult general wards at four acute National Health Service hospitals. Retrospective study: extracted, linked and analysed routinely collected data from two large National Health Service acute trusts; data from over 400,000 patient admissions and 9,000,000 vital sign observations.

Results

Observational study found a variety of practices, with two hospitals having registered nurses take the majority of vital sign observations and two favouring healthcare assistants or student nurses. However, whoever took the observations spent roughly the same length of time. The average was 5:01 minutes per observation over a 'round', including time to locate and prepare the equipment and travel to the patient area. Retrospective study created survival models predicting the risk of outcomes over time since the patient was last observed. For low-risk patients, there was little difference in risk between 4 hours and 24 hours post observation.

Conclusions

We explored several different scenarios with our stakeholders (clinicians and patients), based on how 'risk' could be managed in different ways. Vital sign observations are often done more frequently than necessary from a bald assessment of the patient's risk, and we show that a maximum threshold of risk could theoretically be achieved with less resource. Existing resources could therefore be redeployed within a changed protocol to achieve better outcomes for some patients without compromising the safety of the rest. Our work supports the approach of the current monitoring protocol, whereby patients' National Early Warning Score 2 guides observation frequency. Existing practice is to observe higher-risk patients more frequently and our findings have shown that this is objectively justified. It is worth noting that important nurse-patient interactions take place during vital sign monitoring and should not be eliminated under new monitoring processes. Our study contributes to the existing evidence on how vital sign observations should be scheduled. However, ultimately, it is for the relevant professionals to decide how our work should be used.

Study registration

This study is registered as ISRCTN10863045.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 17/05/03) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 6. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Using days alive and out of hospital to measure surgical outcomes in New Zealand: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To measure differences at various deciles in days alive and out of hospital to 90 days (DAOH₉₀) and explore its utility for identifying outliers of performance among district health boards (DHBs).

METHODS

Days in hospital and mortality within 90 days of surgery were extracted by linking data from the New Zealand National Minimum Data Set and the births and deaths registry between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2021 for all adults in New Zealand undergoing acute laparotomy (AL-a relatively high-risk group), elective total hip replacement (THR-a medium risk group) or lower segment caesarean section (LSCS-a low-risk group). DAOH₉₀ was calculated without censoring to zero in cases of mortality. For each DHB, direct risk standardisation was used to adjust for potential confounders and presented in deciles according to baseline patient risk. The Mann-Whitney U test assessed overall DAOH₉₀ differences between DHBs, and comparisons are presented between selected deciles of DAOH₉₀ for each operation.

RESULTS

We obtained national data for 35 175, 52 032 and 117 695 patients undergoing AL, THR and LSCS procedures, respectively. We have demonstrated that calculating DAOH without censoring zero allows for differences between procedures and DHBs to be identified. Risk-adjusted national mean DAOH₉₀ Scores were 64.0 days, 79.0 days and 82.0 days at the 0.1 decile and 75.0 days, 82.0 days and 84.0 days at the 0.2 decile for AL, THR and LSCS, respectively, matching to their expected risk profiles. Differences between procedures and DHBs were most marked at lower deciles of the DAOH₉₀ distribution, and outlier DHBs were detectable. Corresponding 90-day mortality rates were 5.45%, 0.78% and 0.01%.

CONCLUSION

In New Zealand after direct risk adjustment, differences in DAOH₉₀ between three types of surgical procedure reflected their respective risk levels and associated mortality rates. Outlier DHBs were identified for each procedure. Thus, our approach to analysing DAOH₉₀ appears to have considerable face validity and potential utility for contributing to the measurement of perioperative outcomes in an audit or quality improvement setting.

Moving beyond audit: driving system learning using a novel mortality classification system in a tertiary training hospital in Kenya

Clinical classification systems have proliferated since the APGAR score was introduced in 1953. Numerical scores and classification systems enable qualitative clinical descriptors to be transformed into categorical data, with both clinical utility and ability to provide a common language for learning. The clarity of classification rubrics embedded in a mortality classification system provides the shared basis for discussion and comparison of results. Mortality audits have been long seen as learning tools, but have tended to be siloed within a department and driven by individual learner need. We suggest that the learning needs of the system are also important. Therefore, the ability to learn from small mistakes and problems, rather than just from serious adverse events, remains facilitated.We describe a mortality classification system developed for use in the low-resource context and how it is 'fit for purpose,' able to drive both individual trainee, departmental and system learning. The utility of this classification system is that it addresses the low-resource context, including relevant factors such as limited prehospital emergency care, delayed presentation, and resource constraints. We describe five categories: (1) anticipated death or complication following terminal illness; (2) expected death or complication given clinical situation, despite taking preventive measures; (3) unexpected death or complication, not reasonably preventable; (4) potentially preventable death or complication: quality or systems issues identified and (5) unexpected death or complication resulting from medical intervention. We document how this classification system has driven learning at the individual trainee level, the departmental level, supported cross learning between departments and is being integrated into a comprehensive system-wide learning tool.

Variation in hospice use among trauma centers may impact analysis of geriatric trauma outcomes: An analysis of 1,961,228 Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services hospitalizations from 2,317 facilities

BACKGROUND

Defining discharges to hospice as "deaths" is vital for properly assessing trauma center outcomes. This is critical with older patients as a higher proportion is discharged to hospice. The goals of this study were to measure rates of hospice use, evaluate hospice discharge rates by trauma center level, and identify variables affecting hospice use in geriatric trauma.

METHODS

Patients from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Inpatient Standard Analytical Files for 2017 to 2019, 65 years or older, with ≥1 injury International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision , code, at hospitals with ≥50 trauma patients per year were selected. Total deaths was defined as inpatient deaths plus hospice discharges. Dominance analysis identified the most important contributors to a model of hospice use.

RESULTS

A total of 1.96 million hospitalizations from 2,317 hospitals (Level I, 10%; II, 14%; III, 18%; IV, 7%; none, 51%) were included. Level I's had significantly lower raw hospice discharge values compared with Levels II and III (I, 0.030; II, 0.035; III, 0.035; p < 0.05) but not Level IV (0.032) or nontrauma centers (0.030) ( p > 0.05). Adjusted Level I hospice discharge rates were lower than all other facility types (Level I, 0.026; II, 0.031; III, 0.034; IV, 0.033; nontrauma, 0.030; p < 0.05). Hospice discharges as a proportion of total deaths varied by level and were lowest (0.38) at Level I centers. Dominance analysis showed that proportion of patients with Injury Severity Score of >15 contributed most to explaining hospice utilization rates (3.2%) followed by trauma center level (2.3%), proportion White (1.9%), proportion female (1.5%), and urban/rural setting (1.4%).

CONCLUSION

In this near population-based geriatric trauma analysis, Level I centers had the lowest hospice discharge rate, but hospice discharge rates varied significantly by trauma level and should be included in mortality assessments of hospital outcomes. As the population ages, accurate assessment of geriatric trauma outcomes becomes more critical. Further studies are needed to evaluate the optimal utilization of hospice in end-of-life decision making for geriatric trauma.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic/Care Management; Level II.

Analysis of Surgical Mortalities Using the Fishbone Model for Quality Improvement in Surgical Disciplines

BACKGROUND

The healthcare industry is complex and prone to the occurrence of preventable patient safety incidents. Most serious patient safety events in surgery are preventable.

AIM

This study was conducted to determine the rate of occurrence of preventable mortalities and to use the fishbone model to establish the main contributing factors.

METHODS

We reviewed the records of patients who died following admission to the surgical wards. Data regarding their demography, diagnosis, acuity, comorbidities, categorization of death and contributing factors were extracted from the Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) database. Factors which contributed to preventable and potentially preventable mortalities were collated. The fishbone model was used for root cause analysis. The study received prior ethical clearance (M190122).

RESULTS

Records of 859 mortalities were found, of which 65.7% (564/859) were males. The median age of the patients who died was 49 years (IQR: 33-64 years). The median length of hospital stay before death was three days (IQR: 1-11 days). Twenty-four percent (24.1%) of the deaths were from gastrointestinal (GIT) emergencies, 18.4% followed head injury and 17.0% from GIT cancers. Overall, 5.4% of the mortalities were preventable, and 41.1% were considered potentially preventable. The error of judgment and training issues accounted for 46% of mortalities.

CONCLUSION

Most surgical mortalities involve males, and around 46% are either potentially preventable or preventable. The majority of the mortality were associated with GIT emergencies, head injury and advanced malignancies of the GIT. The leading contributing factors to preventable and potentially preventable mortalities were the error of judgment, inadequate training and shortage of resources.

Management of the deteriorating adult patient: does simulation-based education improve patient safety?

Failure to recognise the deteriorating patient can cause severe harm and is related to preventable death. Human factors are often identified as contributing factors. Simulation-based education is used to develop clinicians' human factors skills. This article discusses the evidence concerning the efficacy of simulation-based education for improving the recognition and management of the acutely deteriorating adult patient, and the limitations of simulation-based education. Findings demonstrated simulation-based education was the most effective educational method identified for training staff in recognising unwell patients. The evidence demonstrating the impact of simulation-based education on patient outcomes was equivocal. The quality of the evidence was low grade regarding the efficacy of simulation-based education on human factors. Further research is required to confirm the efficacy of simulation-based education for human factors and patient outcomes.

Increasing specialist intensity at weekends to improve outcomes for patients undergoing emergency hospital admission: the HiSLAC two-phase mixed-methods study

Background

NHS England’s 7-day services policy comprised 10 standards to improve access to quality health care across all days of the week. Six standards targeted hospital specialists on the assumption that their absence caused the higher mortality associated with weekend hospital admission: the ‘weekend effect’. The High-intensity Specialist-Led Acute Care (HiSLAC) collaboration investigated this using the implementation of 7-day services as a ‘natural experiment’.

Objectives

The objectives were to determine whether or not increasing specialist intensity at weekends improves outcomes for patients undergoing emergency hospital admission, and to explore mechanisms and cost-effectiveness.

Design

This was a two-phase mixed-methods observational study. Year 1 focused on developing the methodology. Years 2–5 included longitudinal research using quantitative and qualitative methods, and health economics.

Methods

A Bayesian systematic literature review from 2000 to 2017 quantified the weekend effect. Specialist intensity measured over 5 years used self-reported annual point prevalence surveys of all specialists in English acute hospital trusts, expressed as the weekend-to-weekday ratio of specialist hours per 10 emergency admissions. Hospital Episode Statistics from 2007 to 2018 provided trends in weekend-to-weekday mortality ratios. Mechanisms for the weekend effect were explored qualitatively through focus groups and on-site observations by qualitative researchers, and a two-epoch case record review across 20 trusts. Case-mix differences were examined in a single trust. Health economics modelling estimated costs and outcomes associated with increased specialist provision.

Results

Of 141 acute trusts, 115 submitted data to the survey, and 20 contributed 4000 case records for review and participated in qualitative research (involving interviews, and observations using elements of an ethnographic approach). Emergency department attendances and admissions have increased every year, outstripping the increase in specialist numbers; numbers of beds and lengths of stay have decreased. The reduction in mortality has plateaued; the proportion of patients dying after discharge from hospital has increased. Specialist hours increased between 2012/13 and 2017/18. Weekend specialist intensity is half that of weekdays, but there is no relationship with admission mortality. Patients admitted on weekends are sicker (they have more comorbid disease and more of them require palliative care); adjustment for severity of acute illness annuls the weekend effect. In-hospital care processes are slightly more efficient at weekends; care quality (errors, adverse events, global quality) is as good at weekends as on weekdays and has improved with time. Qualitative researcher assessments of hospital weekend quality concurred with case record reviewers at trust level. General practitioner referrals at weekends are one-third of those during weekdays and have declined further with time.

Limitations

Observational research, variable survey response rates and subjective assessments of care quality were compensated for by using a difference-in-difference analysis over time.

Conclusions

Hospital care is improving. The weekend effect is associated with factors in the community that precede hospital admission. Post-discharge mortality is increasing. Policy-makers should focus their efforts on improving acute and emergency care on a ‘whole-system’ 7-day approach that integrates social, community and secondary health care.

Future work

Future work should evaluate the role of doctors in hospital and community emergency care and investigate pathways to emergency admission and quality of care following hospital discharge.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 9, No. 13. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Analysis of structure indicators influencing 3-h and 6-h compliance with the surviving sepsis campaign guidelines in China: a systematic review

Background

Compliance with the surviving sepsis campaign (SSC) guidelines (C_ssc) is a key factor affecting the effects of sepsis treatment. We designed this study to investigate the relationships of the structure indicators of ICU on 3 and 6-h C_ssc in China.

Methods

A total of 1854 hospitals were enrolled in a survey, led by the China National Critical Care Quality Control Center (China-NCCQC) from January 1, 2018, through December 31, 2018. We investigated the 1854 hospitals’ 3 and 6-h C_ssc, including compliance with each specific measure of the 3-h and 6-h SSC bundles. We also investigated the actual level of the structure indicators of ICU, released by China-NCCQC in 2015.The outcomes were in adherence with the SSC guidelines (2016). Monitoring indicators included 3 and 6-h C_ssc.

Results

In the subgroup, the rate of broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy was the highest, and the rate of CVP and ScvO2 measurement was the lowest among the items of 3 and 6-h C_ssc. Structure indicators related to 3 and 6-h C_ssc include the predicted mortality rate and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). The relationships between 3 and 6-h C_ssc and the proportion of ICU in total inpatient bed occupancy, the proportion of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score ≥ 15 in all ICU patients were uncertain. There was no relationship of 3 and 6-h C_ssc with the proportion of ICU patients among total inpatients.

Conclusions

Structure indicators influencing 3 and 6-h C_ssc in China are the predicted mortality rate and the standardized mortality rate.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40001-021-00498-7.

Changes in weekend and weekday care quality of emergency medical admissions to 20 hospitals in England during implementation of the 7-day services national health policy

Background

In 2013, the English National Health Service launched the policy of 7-day services to improve care quality and outcomes for weekend emergency admissions.

Aims

To determine whether the quality of care of emergency medical admissions is worse at weekends, and whether this has changed during implementation of 7-day services.

Methods

Using data from 20 acute hospital Trusts in England, we performed randomly selected structured case record reviews of patients admitted to hospital as emergencies at weekends and on weekdays between financial years 2012–2013 and 2016–2017. Senior doctor (‘specialist’) involvement was determined from annual point prevalence surveys. The primary outcome was the rate of clinical errors. Secondary outcomes included error-related adverse event rates, global quality of care and four indicators of good practice.

Results

Seventy-nine clinical reviewers reviewed 4000 admissions, 800 in duplicate. Errors, adverse events and care quality were not significantly different between weekend and weekday admissions, but all improved significantly between epochs, particularly errors most likely influenced by doctors (clinical assessment, diagnosis, treatment, prescribing and communication): error rate OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.87; adverse event OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.69; care quality OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.87; all adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity. Postadmission in-hospital care processes improved between epochs and were better for weekend admissions (vital signs with National Early Warning Score and timely specialist review). Preadmission processes in the community were suboptimal at weekends and deteriorated between epochs (fewer family doctor referrals, more patients with chronic disease or palliative care designation).

Conclusions and implications

Hospital care quality of emergency medical admissions is not worse at weekends and has improved during implementation of the 7-day services policy. Causal pathways for the weekend effect may extend into the prehospital setting.

Rate of Preventable Mortality in Hospitalized Patients: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The number of preventable inpatient deaths in the USA is commonly estimated as between 44,000 and 98,000 deaths annually. Because many inpatient deaths are believed to be preventable, mortality rates are used for quality measures and reimbursement. We aimed to estimate the proportion of inpatient deaths that are preventable.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library through April 8, 2019, was conducted. We included case series of adult patients who died in the hospital and were reviewed by physicians to determine if the death was preventable. Two reviewers independently performed data extraction and study quality assessment. The proportion of preventable deaths from individual studies was pooled using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Sixteen studies met inclusion criteria. Eight studies of consecutive or randomly selected cohorts including 12,503 deaths were pooled. The pooled rate of preventable mortality was 3.1% (95% CI 2.2-4.1%). Two studies also reported rates of preventable mortality limited to patients expected to live longer than 3 months, ranging from 0.5 to 1.0%. In the USA, these estimates correspond to approximately 22,165 preventable deaths annually and 7150 deaths for patients with greater than 3-month life expectancy.

DISCUSSION

The number of deaths due to medical error is lower than previously reported and the majority occur in patients with less than 3-month life expectancy. The vast majority of hospital deaths are due to underlying disease. Our results have implications for the use of hospital mortality rates for quality reporting and reimbursement.

STUDY REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration number CRD42018095140.