Understanding (Mis)classification Trends of Latin Americans in Fordisc 3.1: Incorporating Cranial Morphology, Microgeographic Origin, and Admixture Proportions for Interpretation

The need to incorporate human variation and evolutionary theory in forensic anthropology: A call for reform

In 1992, Norm Sauer called for a language shift in which practitioners would move away from the socially loaded term "race" and replace it with the less provocative term "ancestry." While many heeded the call and moved towards ancestry in their research and reports, the actual approach to research and analysis did not change. In response to this change, there was a large growth in ancestry estimation method development in the early decade of the 2000s. However, the practice of ancestry estimation did not adequately incorporate evolutionary theory in interpretation or trait selection and continued with little critical reflection. In the past decade, there has been an increase in ancestry validation methods with little critique of the "race" concept or discussion of modern human variation or reference samples. To advance, forensic anthropologists need to reckon with the practice of ancestry estimation as it is currently practiced. We are calling for another reform in the axiom focusing on evolutionary theory, population history, trait selection, and population-level reference samples. The practice needs to abandon the terms ancestry and race completely and recalibrate to an analysis of population affinity. Population affinity is a statistical approach based on the underlying population structure that would allow the understanding of how microevolutionary forces act in concert with historical events (e.g., colonization, the Transatlantic Slave Trade, etc.) to shape modern human variation. This is not to be confused with geographic ancestry that all too often can be perceived as interchangeable with social race and as an affirmation of the biological concept of race. It is time to critically evaluate the social and scientific implications of the current practice of ancestry estimation, and re-frame our approach to studying and analyzing modern human variation through a population structure approach.

Forensic anthropology casework performance: Assessing accuracy and trends for biological profile estimates on a comprehensive sample of identified decedent cases

The purpose of this study was to investigate the accuracy rates and trends in forensic anthropology casework concerning the estimation of the biological profile (sex, age, ancestry, and stature). Identified cases from the Forensic Anthropology Database for Assessing Methods Accuracy (FADAMA; n = 359) were analyzed to explore the following: accuracy rates per biological profile component, case-level performance in assessing the biological profile, and factors related to inaccuracy rates. Accuracy rates for the four biological profile components ranged from 83% to 98%, with sex estimation performing the best and stature performing the poorest. While the overall sex estimation inaccuracies were the lowest of any biological profile component, we found that females are missexed approximately ten times more often than males. Inaccurate age estimates were more frequently the result of overestimation than underestimation, while the trends are reversed for stature estimation. Regarding ancestry estimation performance, African American/Black and White decedents had the lowest inaccuracy rates, while Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander decedents demonstrated greater inaccuracy rates. When examining accuracy rates for each case, 81% of cases had no inaccurate biological profile estimates, while 17% and 2% inaccurately estimated one and two biological profile components, respectively. The demographic trends of identified forensic anthropology cases reflect the national unidentified decedent demographics. Biological profile accuracy rates were generally comparable to previous studies. The findings highlight the current status of forensic anthropologists' casework performance, with a greater amount of case-level inaccuracy rates than previously thought, and demonstrate the potential methodological and sampling strategies that could improve accuracy rates.

Diversity aboard a Tudor warship: investigating the origins of the Mary Rose crew using multi-isotope analysis

The great Tudor warship, the Mary Rose, which sank tragically in the Solent in 1545 AD, presents a rare archaeological opportunity to research individuals for whom the precise timing and nature of death are known. A long-standing question surrounds the composition of the Tudor navy and whether the crew were largely British or had more diverse origins. This study takes a multi-isotope approach, combining strontium (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr), oxygen (δ¹⁸O), sulfur (δ³⁴S), carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotope analysis of dental samples to reconstruct the childhood diet and origins of eight of the Mary Rose crew. Forensic ancestry estimation was also employed on a subsample. Provenancing isotope data tentatively suggests as many as three of the crew may have originated from warmer, more southerly climates than Britain. Five have isotope values indicative of childhoods spent in western Britain, one of which had cranial morphology suggestive of African ancestry. The general trend of relatively high δ¹⁵N and low δ¹³C values suggests a broadly comparable diet to contemporaneous British and European communities. This multi-isotope approach and the nature of the archaeological context has allowed the reconstruction of the biographies of eight Tudor individuals to a higher resolution than is usually possible.

Evaluating population affinity estimates in forensic anthropology: Insights from the forensic anthropology database for assessing methods accuracy (FADAMA)

Using a sample of anonymized U.S. forensic anthropology cases (n = 251) from the FADAMA database, we assess the degree of concordance between decedents' social identifiers and anthropologists' continental-based classifications. We report high success rates (>90%) that generally support previous findings, yet we acknowledge the limitations of assessing "ancestry" accuracy based on resolved cases and draw attention to situations in which our methods fail. For example, forensic anthropologists achieve just 20% accuracy when classifying individuals as "other" or "mixed"-problematic categories that we argue should be rejected. Leveraging our findings, we ask: what are we really estimating when we perform a skeletal assessment of "ancestry" in the US context? We argue that the "ancestry estimates" historically and routinely produced in forensic anthropology instead give information on population affinity: a measure of how similar a given case is to one among several socially relevant groups of interest. Distancing forensic anthropology from genetics and other disciplines that estimate ancestry, the approach of population affinity assesses similarities to both social and biological groupings, potentially at a fine-grained level, attempting to account for the complex histories, shared biologies, and wide ranges of diversity that characterize our communities and our casework. Population affinity is a flexible and inclusive approach that more accurately describes current forensic anthropological analyses of human variation. Going forward, we must acknowledge and build on the contributions of previous scholars as we work together toward our shared goal of theoretically grounded analyses of human variation that accurately and equitably serve all casework decedents.

Use of craniometric data to facilitate migrant identifications at the United States/Mexico border

OBJECTIVES

Thousands of migrants have died along the United States/Mexico border and many remain unidentified. The purpose of this research is to test whether estimations of population affinity, derived from craniometric data, can facilitate identification of migrant remains and provide a geographic region of origin rather than the broad label Hispanic. The appropriateness of current forensic reference data will also be assessed.

METHODS

A case study combined with craniometric data from positively identified and unidentified migrants from the Pima County Office of the Medical Examiner (n = 489) in Arizona and operation identification (n = 201) in Texas were compared to skeletal data representing Guatemalan (n = 87) and Mexican (n = 65) Mayans. Biological distance and discriminant function analyses were used to assess overall population relationships and classificatory models for forensic anthropological application.

RESULTS

The majority of evidence indicates that estimations of population affinity can assist in the facilitation identification of migrant remains, even when a broad classification is used. Biological distances among the groups suggest that positively identified Guatemalan and Mexican migrants are similar to one another but differ from Guatemalan and Mexican Mayans.

CONCLUSIONS

Population affinity estimations can aid migrant identification, and current reference data used in forensic anthropological practice should be replaced with data from positive identifications. Estimates of geographic origin may be more useful than the broad generic term Hispanic for narrowing down the search for a missing person, but more data and research is needed to achieve this goal. Although, the utility of geographic origin estimates relies on transnational data centralization and sharing, which is not always the case.