New Approaches to Age Estimation Using Palatal Suture Fusion

Age estimation from median palatine suture using computed tomography reconstructed 3D images: a comparison of Northern and Southwestern Chinese populations

To investigate the potential of computed tomography (CT) images of median palatine suture (MP) for adult age estimation in the Northern and Southwestern Chinese populations. A total of 1110 cranial CT scans from individuals aged 10-79 years, including 557 northern Chinese and 553 southwestern Chinese, were collected for analysis. After volume reformation and multiplanar reconstruction, a total of 20 slices of median palatine suture were selected from each individual. The closure of sutures was analyzed into four stages, and the cumulative scores of 20 slices were recorded as the suture closure score (SCS). The correlations between SCS and age were compared among the two Chinese populations residing in diverse geographic regions. Regression models were established for age estimation. The estimation accuracy was evaluated based on the test set. The mean absolute error (MAE) and the correlation between predicted age and chronological age were calculated to evaluate estimation accuracy. The SCS of MP exhibited a significant correlation with age (0.613, northern male; 0.678, southwestern male; 0.730, northern female; 0.704, Southwestern female; 0.662, total). Furthermore, there were statistically significant differences in SCS among different regions and sex groups (p < 0.001). The cubic regression model had the highest R2 value in all subjects, especially among Northern females and Southwestern males, while the power and quadratic regression models showed the highest R2 value in Northern males and Southwestern females, respectively. In the test set, the Northern cohort demonstrated a lower MAE (9.06 ± 7.32 years, males; 9.17 ± 5.28 years, females) compared to the Southwestern cohort (9.19 ± 7.49 years, male; 10.61 ± 6.83 years, female). Additionally, it was observed that males exhibited a lower MAE than females in both regional groups. This study demonstrated the potential utility of CT images of the MP for age estimation in Chinese populations, emphasizing the significance of incorporating regional and sex factors within this context.

Age estimation by evaluation of obliteration of the palatine sutures: a scoping review

The age estimation (AE) of human remains is a challenging task since it is dependent on the state in which these remains are found. Since the macroscopic evaluation of palatal sutures has been proposed as a method for AE, the aim of this study was to review the literature on this method, considering that the cases of edentulous elderly are among the greatest challenges in anthropological and forensic contexts. A scoping review was performed using a specific search strategy in PubMed, Web of Science, SciELO, LILACS, and Google Scholar. The search identified 13 articles, among which the USA yielded the most information with 3 articles. Only 1 study was identified in Latin America (Peru). There was great diversity regarding the origin of samples, and the studies were carried out on both historical and modern populations. Only 6 articles exceeded the average sample size (168.08) and 4 articles studied samples of fewer than 100 individuals. Although 6 different methods were identified, Mann et al.'s revised method was the most used. The selection of appropriate methods for AE depends on what skeletal elements are present and the general age of the specimens. Although evaluation of the obliteration of the palatal sutures has been found to be simple and promising for AE in individuals over 60 years of age, this method has been reported to have less precision than other more complex methods, which makes the use of a combination of methods necessary to increase the level of confidence and the percentage of success. Further research could resolve this weakness, and methodological refinement (perhaps the digitization and automation of processes, or the application of Bayesian methodology) could provide the necessary solidity to comply with international standards in the forensic scenario.

Estimating age at death by Hausdorff distance analyses of the fourth lumbar vertebral bodies using 3D postmortem CT images

The existing methods for determining adult age from human skeletons are mostly qualitative. However, a shift in quantifying age-related skeletal morphology on a quantitative scale is emerging. This study describes an intuitive variable extraction technique and quantifies skeletal morphology in continuous data to understand their aging pattern. A total of 200 postmortem CT images from the deceased aged 25-99 years (130 males, 70 females) who underwent forensic death investigations were used in the study. The 3D volume of the fourth lumbar vertebral body was segmented, smoothed, and post-processed using the open-source software ITK-SNAP and MeshLab, respectively. To measure the extent of 3D shape deformity due to aging, the Hausdorff distance (HD) analysis was performed. In our context, the maximum Hausdorff distance (maxHD) was chosen as a metric, which was subsequently studied for its correlation with age at death. A strong statistically significant positive correlation (P < 0.001) between maxHD and age at death was observed in both sexes (Spearman's rho = 0.742, male; Spearman's rho = 0.729, female). In simple linear regression analyses, the regression equations obtained yielded the standard error of estimates of 12.5 years and 13.1 years for males and females, respectively. Our study demonstrated that age-related vertebral morphology could be described using the HD method. Moreover, it encourages further studies with larger sample sizes and on other population backgrounds to validate the methodology.

Leprosy: The age-old companion of humans - Re-evaluation and comparative analysis of Avar-period cases with Hansen's disease from the Danube-Tisza Interfluve, Hungary

In recent years, our knowledge of leprosy in the past has substantially been enriched. Nonetheless, much still remains to be discovered, especially in regions and periods from where no written sources are available. To fill in some research gaps, we provide the comparative analysis of eight Avar-period leprosy cases from the Danube-Tisza Interfluve (Hungary). In every case, to reconstruct the biological consequences of leprosy, the detected bony changes were linked with palaeopathological and modern medical information. To reconstruct the social consequences of being affected by leprosy, conceptualisation of the examined individuals' treatment in death was conducted. In every case, the disease resulted in deformation and disfigurement of the involved anatomical areas (rhinomaxillary region, feet, and/or hands) with difficulties in conducting certain physical activities. These would have been disadvantageous for the examined individuals and limited or changed their possibilities to participate in social situations. The most severe cases would have required continuous support from others to survive. Our findings indicate that, despite their very visible disease and associated debility, the examined communities did not segregate leprosy sufferers but provided and cared for them, and maintained a strong enough social network that made their survival possible even after becoming incapable of self-sufficiency.

Age estimation by palatal suture using modified Kamijo's method

The present study aimed to investigate the correlation between palatal suture obliteration and age in modern Japanese and to develop an age estimation equation by modifying Kamijo's (1949) method. The subjects were 195 Japanese skeletal remains (155 males and 40 females) whose age and sex were known. First, obliteration score (OS) was obtained by measuring palatal suture obliteration from photographic images taken at the time of forensic autopsy, and the correlation with age was examined; no significant correlation was found in females. Second, the palatal sutures were divided into 14 sections, and each section was scored from 0 to 4 points according to the degree of the suture obliteration. Suture scores (SS) were then calculated for each of the four sutures, and the sum of the 14 scores (TSS: total suture score) was used to perform regression analysis for age. For male and all subjects (male and female), age significantly increased (p < 0.001) according to increment of SSs for all sutures. TSS has the highest regression coefficient (r = 0.540), and the lowest standard error of estimation (13.54 years) for all of the patients. The intra- and inter-observer agreement scoring showed high reliability. Validation study using the formulae showed a high percentage of correct responses (80 %). In conclusion, age estimation regression formula by palatal suture using modified Kamijo's method was established for Japanese population, and the study showed the formula might be valid for age estimation.

Age estimation by evaluating median palatine suture closure using postmortem CT

This study sought to develop an age-estimation formula to evaluate the extent of median palatine suture (MP) closure using postmortem computed tomographic (PMCT) images. The PMCT images of 634 Japanese subjects (mean age, 54.5 years; standard deviation [SD], 23.2 years) with known age and sex were examined. The degree of suture closure of the MP, anterior median palatine suture (AMP), and posterior median palatine suture (PMP) was measured and scored (suture closure score, SCS), and a single linear regression analysis was conducted with age at death. On the analysis, SCS of MP, AMP, and PMP showed a significant correlation with age (p < 0.001). The correlation coefficient of MP was higher (0.760, male; 0.803, female; and 0.779, total) than that of AMP (0.726, male; 0.745, female; and 0.735, total) or PMP (0.457, male; 0.630, female; and 0.549, total). The regression formula and standard error of estimation (SEE) of MP were calculated as Age = 100.95 × SCS + 20.51 (SEE 14.87 years) for male subjects, Age = 91.93 × SCS + 26.65 (SEE 14.12 years) for female subjects, and Age = 95.17 × SCS + 24.09 (SEE 14.59 years) for the total, respectively. In addition, another 50 Japanese subjects were randomly selected to validate the age-estimation formula. In this validation, the actual age of 36 subjects (72%) was within the estimated age ± SEE. This study showed that the age estimation formula using PMCT images of MPs was potentially useful for estimating the age of unidentified corpses.

Mixed cumulative probit: a multivariate generalization of transition analysis that accommodates variation in the shape, spread and structure of data

Biological data are frequently nonlinear, heteroscedastic and conditionally dependent, and often researchers deal with missing data. To account for characteristics common in biological data in one algorithm, we developed the mixed cumulative probit (MCP), a novel latent trait model that is a formal generalization of the cumulative probit model usually used in transition analysis. Specifically, the MCP accommodates heteroscedasticity, mixtures of ordinal and continuous variables, missing values, conditional dependence and alternative specifications of the mean response and noise response. Cross-validation selects the best model parameters (mean response and the noise response for simple models, as well as conditional dependence for multivariate models), and the Kullback-Leibler divergence evaluates information gain during posterior inference to quantify mis-specified models (conditionally dependent versus conditionally independent). Two continuous and four ordinal skeletal and dental variables collected from 1296 individuals (aged birth to 22 years) from the Subadult Virtual Anthropology Database are used to introduce and demonstrate the algorithm. In addition to describing the features of the MCP, we provide material to help fit novel datasets using the MCP. The flexible, general formulation with model selection provides a process to robustly identify the modelling assumptions that are best suited for the data at hand.

Missing data in bioarchaeology II: A test of ordinal and continuous data imputation

OBJECTIVES

Previous research has shown that while missing data are common in bioarchaeological studies, they are seldom handled using statistically rigorous methods. The primary objective of this article is to evaluate the ability of imputation to manage missing data and encourage the use of advanced statistical methods in bioarchaeology and paleopathology. An overview of missing data management in biological anthropology is provided, followed by a test of imputation and deletion methods for handling missing data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Missing data were simulated on complete datasets of ordinal (n = 287) and continuous (n = 369) bioarchaeological data. Missing values were imputed using five imputation methods (mean, predictive mean matching, random forest, expectation maximization, and stochastic regression) and the success of each at obtaining the parameters of the original dataset compared with pairwise and listwise deletion.

RESULTS

In all instances, listwise deletion was least successful at approximating the original parameters. Imputation of continuous data was more effective than ordinal data. Overall, no one method performed best and the amount of missing data proved a stronger predictor of imputation success.

DISCUSSION

These findings support the use of imputation methods over deletion for handling missing bioarchaeological and paleopathology data, especially when the data are continuous. Whereas deletion methods reduce sample size, imputation maintains sample size, improving statistical power and preventing bias from being introduced into the dataset.

Paleodemography: From archaeology and skeletal age estimation to life in the past

Much of paleodemography, an interdisciplinary field with strong ties to archaeology, among other disciplines, is oriented toward clarifying the life experiences of past people and why they changed over time. We focus on how human skeletons contribute to our understanding of preindustrial demographic regimes, including when changes took place that led to the world as we know it today. Problems with existing paleodemographic practices are highlighted, as are promising directions for future work. The latter requires both better age estimates and innovative methods to handle data appropriately. Age-at-death estimates for adult skeletons are a particular problem, especially for adults over 50 years that undoubtedly are mistakenly underrepresented in published studies of archaeological skeletons. Better age estimates for the entirety of the lifespan are essential to generate realistic distributions of age at death. There are currently encouraging signs that after about a half-century of intensive, and sometimes contentious, research, paleodemography is poised to contribute much to understandings of evolutionary processes, the structure of past populations, and human-disease interaction, among other topics.

A hierarchy of expert performance as applied to forensic anthropology

Due to their medicolegal repercussions, forensic anthropology conclusions must be reliable, consistent, and minimally compromised by bias. Yet, a synthetic analysis of the reliability and biasability of the discipline's methods has not yet been conducted. To do so, this study utilized Dror's (2016) hierarchy of expert performance (HEP), an eight-level model aimed at examining intra- and inter-expert reliability and biasability (the potential for cognitive bias) within the literature of forensic science disciplines. A systematic review of the forensic anthropology literature was conducted (1972-present), including papers published in the American Journal of Physical Anthropology, Forensic Anthropology, Forensic Science International, and the Journal of Forensic Sciences and Anthropology Section abstracts published in the Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the AAFS which matched keywords such as "forensic anthropology," "bias," "reliability," "cognition," "cognitive," or "error." The resulting forensic anthropology HEP showcases areas that have ample research and areas where more research can be conducted. Specifically, statistically significant increases in reliability (p < 0.001) and biasability (p < 0.001) publications were found since 2009 (publication of the NAS report). Extensive research examined the reliability of forensic anthropological observations and conclusions (n = 744 publications). However, minimal research investigated the biasability of forensic anthropological observations and conclusions (n = 20 publications). Notably, while several studies demonstrated the biasing effect of extraneous information on anthropological morphological assessments, there was no research into these effects on anthropological metric assessments. The findings revealed by the forensic anthropology HEP can help to guide future research, ultimately informing the development and refinement of best-practice standards for the discipline.

The accuracy of age estimation using transition analysis in the Hamann-Todd collection

OBJECTIVES

Reconstructing demography of past populations using skeletal data is challenging when analyzing adults because the process of biological aging does not always reflect the individual's chronological age. A proposed solution to address the limitations of traditional age estimation methods is transition analysis (TA), a multifactorial method of age estimation. However, despite its methodological refinement, TA has varying degrees of accuracy when applied to different known-age skeletal samples. This study assesses TA's accuracy by comparing age estimates to known age at death in the Hamann-Todd Collection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We contrasted the maximum likelihood age estimates generated by the ADBOU program to the known ages of 221 individuals. The absolute error was calculated for the entire sample, and compared between sex and ancestry.

RESULTS

The mean absolute error in the sample is 11.6 (SD = 10.3) years, with white individuals' errors (14.1 years) being significantly higher than black individuals' (9.1 years; p < 0.001). No significant differences were found between sexes (p = 0.621). A weak to moderate positive correlation was found between known age and absolute error for white males (R = 0.607; p < 0.001), white females (R = 0.509; p < 0.001), and black males (R = 0.371; p = 0.006). The accuracy of TA age estimates varied when each anatomical region was analyzed independently, but the combination of all three anatomical regions yielded the most accurate age estimates.

DISCUSSION

These findings further support that TA accuracy depends on the prior distribution used and, in the Hamann-Todd Collection, the accuracy for white individuals is more influenced by this limitation than when black individuals are analyzed.

An epidemiological approach to the analysis of cribra orbitalia as an indicator of health status and mortality in medieval and post-medieval London under a model of parasitic infection

OBJECTIVES

Many individuals living in medieval and post-medieval London suffered issues with sanitation, food insecurity, infectious disease, and widespread exposure to parasites from a multitude of sources, causing increased risk of death for many inhabitants. We examine this stressful environment and its relationship with various demographic and temporal dimensions, using cribra orbitalia (CO) as an indicator of stress, to model an increased risk of dying under the expectations of our proposed parasitic model of infection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyze the relationship between CO and mortality across seven medieval and post-medieval cemeteries from London by the covariates of sex, status, and age-at-death. A survival analysis (Cox regression) and a binomial logit estimated hazard and odds ratios of dying with CO across age-at-death, sex, status, and time-period within single statistical models. In addition, we provide new Bayesian age-at-death estimates for post-medieval samples.

RESULTS

The models show the rate of CO decreased over time and age-at-death, regardless of sex or status; post-medieval individuals were ~72% less likely to die with lesions than their medieval counterparts. Further, individuals with CO had ~1% decrease in risk of dying with CO per year of age.

DISCUSSION

These results suggest increased mortality risk for those with lesions indicative of anemia (CO), and selective mortality of younger individuals during the medieval period. Despite sex-specific nutritional and occupational hazards, and status-based access to resources, the prevalence of CO was similar across sex and status, which suggests living with parasitic infection that caused anemia was an everyday reality for medieval and post-medieval Londoners.