Exploring machine learning methods for predicting systemic lupus erythematosus with herpes

Prediction model for developing neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus in lupus patients

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to construct a predictive model for assessing the risk of development of neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus (NPSLE) among patients with SLE based on clinical, laboratory, and meteorological data.

METHODS

A total of 2232 SLE patients were included and were randomly assigned into training and validation sets. Variables such as clinical and laboratory data and local meteorological data were screened by univariate and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression modelling. After 10-fold cross-validation, the predictive model was built by multivariate logistic regression, and a nomogram was constructed to visualize the risk of NPSLE. The efficacy and accuracy of the model were assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve analysis. Net clinical benefit was assessed by decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

Variables that were included in the predictive model were anti-dsDNA, anti-SSA, lymphocyte count, hematocrit, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, pre-albumin, retinol binding protein, creatine kinase isoenzyme MB, Nterminal brain natriuretic peptide precursor, creatinine, indirect bilirubin, fibrinogen, hypersensitive C-reactive protein, CO, and mild contamination. The nomogram showed a broad prediction spectrum; the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.895 (0.858-0.931) for the training set and 0.849 (0.783-0.916) for the validation set.

CONCLUSION

The model exhibits good predictive performance and will confer clinical benefit in NPSLE risk calculation. Key Points • Clinical, laboratory, and meteorological data were incorporated into a predictive model for neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus (NPSLE) in SLE patients. • Anti-dsDNA, anti-SSA, LYM, HCT, ESR, hsCRP, IBIL, PA, RBP, CO, Fib, NT-proBNP, Crea, CO, and mild contamination are predictors of the development of NPSLE and may have potential for research. • The nomogram has good predictive performance and clinical value and can be used to guide clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Systemic lupus in the era of machine learning medicine

Artificial intelligence and machine learning applications are emerging as transformative technologies in medicine. With greater access to a diverse range of big datasets, researchers are turning to these powerful techniques for data analysis. Machine learning can reveal patterns and interactions between variables in large and complex datasets more accurately and efficiently than traditional statistical methods. Machine learning approaches open new possibilities for studying SLE, a multifactorial, highly heterogeneous and complex disease. Here, we discuss how machine learning methods are rapidly being integrated into the field of SLE research. Recent reports have focused on building prediction models and/or identifying novel biomarkers using both supervised and unsupervised techniques for understanding disease pathogenesis, early diagnosis and prognosis of disease. In this review, we will provide an overview of machine learning techniques to discuss current gaps, challenges and opportunities for SLE studies. External validation of most prediction models is still needed before clinical adoption. Utilisation of deep learning models, access to alternative sources of health data and increased awareness of the ethics, governance and regulations surrounding the use of artificial intelligence in medicine will help propel this exciting field forward.

Artificial intelligence differentiates abdominal Henoch-Schönlein purpura from acute appendicitis in children

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to construct an artificial intelligence (AI) model capable of effectively discriminating between abdominal Henoch-Schönlein purpura (AHSP) and acute appendicitis (AA) in pediatric patients.

METHODS

A total of 6965 participants, comprising 2201 individuals with AHSP and 4764 patients with AA, were enrolled in the study. Additionally, 53 laboratory indicators were taken into consideration. Five distinct artificial intelligence (AI) models were developed employing machine learning algorithms, namely XGBoost, AdaBoost, Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), MLPClassifier (MLP), and support vector machine (SVM). The performance of these prediction models was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration curve assessment, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

We identified 32 discriminative indicators (p < .05) between AHSP and AA. Five indicators, namely the lymphocyte ratio (LYMPH ratio), eosinophil ratio (EO ratio), eosinophil count (EO count), neutrophil ratio (NEUT ratio), and C-reactive protein (CRP), exhibited strong performance in distinguishing AHSP from AA (AUC ≥ 0.80). Among the various prediction models, the XGBoost model displayed superior performance evidenced by the highest AUC (XGBoost = 0.895, other models < 0.89), accuracy (XGBoost = 0.824, other models < 0.81), and Kappa value (XGBoost = 0.621, other models < 0.60) in the validation set. After optimization, the XGBoost model demonstrated remarkable diagnostic performance for AHSP and AA (AUC > 0.95). Both the calibration curve and decision curve analysis suggested the promising clinical utility and net benefits of the XGBoost model.

CONCLUSION

The AI-based machine learning model exhibits high prediction accuracy and can differentiate AHSP and AA from a data-driven perspective.