Hierarchical modelling of population growth rate from individual capture-recapture data

Individual growth rates and size at metamorphosis increase with watershed area in a stream salamander

A fundamental goal of ecology is to understand how the physical environment influences intraspecific variability in life history and, consequently, fitness. In streams, discharge and associated habitat conditions change along a continuum from intermittency to permanence: Headwater streams typically have smaller watersheds and are thus more prone to drying than higher-order streams with larger watersheds and more consistent discharge. However, few empirical studies have assessed life history and associated population responses to this continuum in aquatic organisms. We tested the prediction that individual growth, rate of development, and population growth increase with watershed area in the long-lived stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus, where we use watershed area as a proxy for hydrologic intermittence. To address this hypothesis, we used 8 years of mark-recapture data from 53 reaches across 10 headwater streams in New Hampshire, USA. Individual growth rates and mean size at metamorphosis increased with watershed area for watersheds from 0.12 to 1.66 km2 . Population growth rates increased with watershed area; however, this result was not statistically significant at our sample size. Mean age of metamorphosis did not vary across watershed areas. Lower individual growth rates and smaller sizes at metamorphosis likely contributed to reduced lifetime fecundity and population growth in reaches with the smallest watershed areas and highest vulnerability to drought. These responses suggest that as droughts increase due to climate change, headwater specialists in hydrologically intermittent environments will experience a reduction in fitness due to smaller body sizes or other growth-related mechanisms.

Genomic signatures of thermal adaptation are associated with clinal shifts of life history in a broadly distributed frog

Temperature is a critical driver of ectotherm life‐history strategies, whereby a warmer environment is associated with increased growth, reduced longevity and accelerated senescence. Increasing evidence indicates that thermal adaptation may underlie such life‐history shifts in wild populations. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and copy number variants (CNVs) can help uncover the molecular mechanisms of temperature‐driven variation in growth, longevity and senescence. However, our understanding of these mechanisms is still limited, which reduces our ability to predict the response of non‐model ectotherms to global temperature change.

In this study, we examined the potential role of thermal adaptation in clinal shifts of life‐history traits (i.e. life span, senescence rate and recruitment) in the Columbia spotted frog Rana luteiventris along a broad temperature gradient in the western United States.

We took advantage of extensive capture–recapture datasets of 20,033 marked individuals from eight populations surveyed annually for 14–18 years to examine how mean annual temperature and precipitation influenced demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, life span, senescence rate, recruitment and population growth). After showing that temperature was the main climatic predictor influencing demography, we used RAD‐seq data (50,829 SNPs and 6,599 putative CNVs) generated for 352 individuals from 31 breeding sites to identify the genomic signatures of thermal adaptation.

Our results showed that temperature was negatively associated with annual adult survival and reproductive life span and positively associated with senescence rate. By contrast, recruitment increased with temperature, promoting the long‐term viability of most populations. These temperature‐dependent demographic changes were associated with strong genomic signatures of thermal adaptation. We identified 148 SNP candidates associated with temperature including three SNPs located within protein‐coding genes regulating resistance to cold and hypoxia, immunity and reproduction in ranids. We also identified 39 CNV candidates (including within 38 transposable elements) for which normalized read depth was associated with temperature.

Our study indicates that both SNPs and structural variants are associated with temperature and could eventually be found to play a functional role in clinal shifts in senescence rate and life‐history strategies in R. luteiventris. These results highlight the potential role of different sources of molecular variation in the response of ectotherms to environmental temperature variation in the context of global warming.

Density Dependence and Adult Survival Drive Dynamics in Two High Elevation Amphibian Populations

Amphibian conservation has progressed from the identification of declines to mitigation, but efforts are hampered by the lack of nuanced information about the effects of environmental characteristics and stressors on mechanistic processes of population regulation. Challenges include a paucity of long-term data and scant information about the relative roles of extrinsic (e.g., weather) and intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) factors. We used a Bayesian formulation of an open population capture-recapture model and >30 years of data to examine intrinsic and extrinsic factors regulating two adult boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) populations. We modelled population growth rate and apparent survival directly, assessed their temporal variability, and derived estimates of recruitment. Populations were relatively stable (geometric mean population growth rate >1) and regulated by negative density dependence (i.e., higher population sizes reduced population growth rate). In the smaller population, density dependence also acted on adult survival. In the larger population, higher population growth was associated with warmer autumns. Survival estimates ranged from 0.30–0.87, per-capita recruitment was <1 in most years, and mean seniority probability was >0.50, suggesting adult survival is more important to population growth than recruitment. Our analysis indicates density dependence is a primary driver of population dynamics for P. maculata adults.

Integrating broad-scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Climate variation and trends affect species distribution and abundance across large spatial extents. However, most studies that predict species response to climate are implemented at small spatial scales or are based on occurrence-environment relationships that lack mechanistic detail. Here, we develop an integrated population model (IPM) for multi-site count and capture-recapture data for a declining migratory songbird, Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), in three genetically distinct breeding populations in western North America. We include climate covariates of vital rates, including spring temperatures on the breeding grounds, drought on the wintering range in northwest Mexico, and wind conditions during spring migration. Spring temperatures were positively related to productivity in Sierra Nevada and Pacific Northwest genetic groups, and annual changes in productivity were important predictors of changes in growth rate in these populations. Drought condition on the wintering grounds was a strong predictor of adult survival for coastal California and Sierra Nevada populations; however, adult survival played a relatively minor role in explaining annual variation in population change. A latent parameter representing a mixture of first-year survival and immigration was the largest contributor to variation in population change; however, this parameter was estimated imprecisely, and its importance likely reflects, in part, differences in spatio-temporal distribution of samples between count and capture-recapture data sets. Our modeling approach represents a novel and flexible framework for linking broad-scale multi-site monitoring data sets. Our results highlight both the potential of the approach for extension to additional species and systems, as well as needs for additional data and/or model development.

Survival cost to relocation does not reduce population self-sustainability in an amphibian

Relocations are increasingly popular among wildlife managers despite often low rates of relocation success in vertebrates. In this context, understanding the influence of extrinsic (e.g., relocation design, habitat characteristics) and intrinsic factors (e.g., age and sex) on demographic parameters, such as survival, that regulate the dynamics of relocated populations is critical to improve relocation protocols and better predict relocation success. We investigated survival in naturally established and relocated populations of yellow-bellied toads (Bombina variegata), an amphibian that was nearly extinct in Belgium by the late 1980s. We quantified survival at three ontogenetic stages (juvenile, subadult, and adult) in the relocated population, the source population, and a control population. In the relocated population, we quantified survival in captive bred individuals and their locally born descendants. Then, using simulations, we examined how survival cost to relocation affects the self-sustainability of the relocated population. We showed that survival at juvenile and subadult stages was relatively similar in all populations. In contrast, relocated adult survival was lower than adult survival in the source and control populations. Despite this, offspring of relocated animals (the next generation, regardless of life stage) survived at similar rates to individuals in the source and control populations. Simulations revealed that the relocated population was self-sustaining under different scenarios and that the fate (e.g., stability or increase) of the simulated populations was highly dependent on the fecundity of relocated adults and their offspring. To summarize, our results indicate that survival in relocated individuals is lower than in non-relocated individuals but that this cost (i.e., reduced survival) disappears in the second generation. A finer understanding of how relocation affects demographic processes is an important step in improving relocation success of amphibians and other animals.

Assessing the effect of density on population growth when modeling individual encounter data

The relative role of density-dependent and density-independent variation in vital rates and population size remains largely unsolved. Despite its importance to the theory and application of population ecology, and to conservation biology, quantifying the role and strength of density dependence is particularly challenging. We present a hierarchical formulation of the temporal symmetry approach, also known as the Pradel model, that permits estimation of the strength of density dependence from capture-mark-reencounter data. A measure of relative population size is built in the model and serves to detect density dependence directly on population growth rate. The model is also extended to account for temporal random variability in demographic rates, allowing estimation of the temporal variance of population growth rate unexplained by density dependence. We thus present a model-based approach that enable to test and quantify the effect of density-dependent and density-independent factors affecting population fluctuations in a single modeling framework. More generally, we use this modeling framework along with simulated and empirical data to show the value of including density dependence when modeling individual encounter data without the need for auxiliary data.

Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate-driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual-based data on a trans-equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large-scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ_i , estimated using local climate-driven parameters with ρ_i , a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ_i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate-dependent parameters, ρ_i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate-driven projections.