Large-scale spatial analysis of ringing and re-encounter data to infer movement patterns: A review including methodological perspectives

A synthesis of recent tools and perspectives in migratory connectivity studies

Migration movements connect breeding and non-breeding bird populations over the year. Such links, referred to as migratory connectivity, have important implications for migratory population dynamics as they dictate the consequences of localised events for the whole population network. This calls for concerted efforts to understand migration processes for large-scale conservation. Over the last 20 years, the toolbox to investigate connectivity patterns has expanded and studies now consider migratory connectivity over a broader range of species and contexts. Here, we summarise recent developments in analysing migratory connectivity, focusing on strategies and challenges to pooling various types of data to both optimise and broaden the scope of connectivity studies. We find that the different approaches used to investigate migratory connectivity still have complementary strengths and weaknesses, whether in terms of cost, spatial and temporal resolution, or challenges in obtaining large sample sizes or connectivity estimates. Certain recent developments offer particularly promising prospects: robust quantitative models for banding data, improved precision of geolocators and accessibility of telemetry tracking systems, and increasingly precise probabilistic assignments based on genomic markers or large-scale isoscapes. In parallel, studies have proposed various ways to combine the information of different datasets, from simply comparing the connectivity patterns they draw to formally integrating their analyses. Such data combinations have proven to be more accurate in estimating connectivity patterns, particularly for integrated approaches that offer promising flexibility. Given the diversity of available tools, future studies would benefit from a rigorous comparative evaluation of the different methodologies to guide data collection to complete migration atlases: where and when should data be collected during the migratory cycle to best describe connectivity patterns? Which data are most favourable to combine, and under what conditions? Are there methods for combining data that are better than others? Can combination methods be improved by adjusting the contribution of the various data in the models? How can we fully integrate connectivity with demographic and environmental data? Data integration shows strong potential to deepen our understanding of migratory connectivity as a dynamic ecological process, especially if the gaps can be bridged between connectivity, population and environmental models.

Eco-evolutionary drivers of avian migratory connectivity

Migratory connectivity, reflecting the extent by which migrants tend to maintain their reciprocal positions in seasonal ranges, can assist in the conservation and management of mobile species, yet relevant drivers remain unclear. Taking advantage of an exceptionally large (~150,000 individuals, 83 species) and more-than-a-century-long dataset of bird ringing encounters, we investigated eco-evolutionary drivers of migratory connectivity in both short- and long-distance Afro-Palearctic migratory birds. Connectivity was strongly associated with geographical proxies of migration costs and was weakly influenced by biological traits and phylogeny, suggesting the evolutionary lability of migratory behaviour. The large intraspecific variability in avian migration strategies, through which most species geographically split into distinct migratory populations, explained why most of them were significantly connected. By unravelling key determinants of migratory connectivity, our study improves knowledge about the resilience of avian migrants to ecological perturbations, providing a critical tool to inform transboundary conservation and management strategies at the population level.

Migratory connectivity of North American waterfowl across administrative flyways

Management of waterfowl that migrate seasonally across North America occurs within four flyways that were delineated in the early 1900s to include the annual movements of populations. Movements may have changed over the past century since the administrative flyways were established, and may do so while management plans are in use, so information about transitions among flyways through time can illustrate how management assumptions may change. Today there are more than 12 million records from 60 years of migratory waterfowl band recoveries to assess adaptive management approaches that will be most effective when they account for movements within and between flyways. We examined how much the movement of North American waterfowl occurs between flyways, whether those movements have changed through time, and whether movements of mallards are representative of multiple species, as suggested by current harvest management strategies. We estimated the probability a duck would transition from one flyway to another and the strength of migratory connectivity (MC) for each species within and among flyways. We used capture-mark-recovery models to estimate population-specific movement within and among flyways (transition probabilities) for 15 migratory waterfowl species that were banded during breeding and recovered during winter. We developed new functionality in the R package MigConnectivity to estimate the species-specific strength of MC using transition probability samples from the capture-mark-recovery models. We found the regular movement of duck populations among flyways, overall weak MC, and no consistent change in migratory movements through time. Mallard movements were median among all duck species, but significantly different from many species, particularly diving ducks. Despite the significant movement between flyways, our work suggests flyway management of waterfowl matches many of the seasonal movements of these species when considering mid-continent flyway management. We recommend models accounting for all transition probabilities between populations and regularly estimating harvest derivations, transition probabilities, and MC metrics to verify that the current movements match model assumptions.

Rehabilitation and release of confiscated songbirds into the wild: A pilot study

Songbirds are currently the most prevalent animals in illegal trafficking in Brazil and other countries, so they are often confiscated, and this poses legal, ethical, and conservation challenges. Returning them to nature requires complex and expensive management, a topic that is sparingly addressed in the literature. Here, we described the processes and costs associated with an attempt to rehabilitate and release confiscated songbirds into the wild. A total of 1,721 songbirds of several species were quarantined, rehabilitated, and released, primarily on two farms located within their typical geographical distribution. Health assessments were performed on samples from 370 birds. Serology revealed no antibodies against Newcastle disease, and Salmonella spp. cultures were negative. Real-time polymerase chain reactions detected M. gallisepticum in samples from seven birds. Atoxoplasma spp. and Acuaria spp. infections, sepsis, and trauma were the top causes of bird death. About 6% of the released birds were recaptured, within an average period of 249 days after release, and at a mean distance of 2,397 meters from the release sites. The majority of these birds were found with free-living mates within or close to fragments of transitional ecoregions with native or cultivated grasslands, and native groves/forests, and shrublands. However, eucalyptus plantations with rich understory regeneration provided a suitable environment for the released forest species to settle, since they were recaptured during the defense of these sites. Over half of the recaptured birds presented behavioral profiles with both dominant and tame traits. Birds with dominant traits are more likely to settle in habitats and face the live decoys during fieldwork, whereas birds with tame characteristics tend to accept close contact with humans. Ultramarine grosbeak (Cyanoloxia brissonii), the least common species among those released, at the release sites showed an almost 2-fold recapture rate in the shortest mean distances from the release sites. This suggests less territory competition, perhaps a major factor of bird re-establishment here. The total per-bird cost was USD 57. Our findings suggested suitable survival and re-establishment of confiscated songbirds in the wild, when managed as we describe.

Estimation in the multinomial reencounter model - Where do migrating animals go and how do they survive in their destination area?

Spatial variation in survival has individual fitness consequences and influences population dynamics. Which space animals use during the annual cycle determines how they are affected by this spatial variability. Therefore, knowing spatial patterns of survival and space use is crucial to understand demography of migrating animals. Extracting information on survival and space use from observation data, in particular dead recovery data, requires explicitly identifying the observation process. We build a fully stochastic model for animals marked in populations of origin, which were found dead in spatially discrete destination areas. The model acts on the population level and includes parameters for use of space, survival and recovery probability. It is based on the division coefficient and the multinomial reencounter model. We use a likelihood-based approach, derive Restricted Maximum Likelihood-like estimates for all parameters and prove their existence and uniqueness. In a simulation study we demonstrate the performance of the model by using Bayesian estimators derived by the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We obtain unbiased estimates for survival and recovery probability if the sample size is large enough. Moreover, we apply the model to real-world data of European robins Erithacus rubecula ringed at a stopover site. We obtain annual survival estimates for different spatially discrete non-breeding areas. Additionally, we can reproduce already known patterns of use of space for this species.

Birds with multiple homes. The annual cycle of the pallid swift (Apus pallidus brehmorum)

We tracked pallid swifts (Apus pallidus brehmorum) from a single breeding colony in Gibraltar over two years. Our results show movement of birds between specific regions within the non-breeding geographical area at specific times of the year. The tracking of a single individual showed remarkable fidelity to the areas visited between years. Furthermore, two pallid swifts tracked over the entire eight-month non-breeding period, while in Africa, gave no indication of coming to land, supporting previous findings of an airborne existence in swifts outside the breeding season. In addition, the crossing of the Sahara Desert to and from breeding grounds is remarkably fast, with one individual crossing it in just over a day. We discuss our findings in the context of bird migration evolutionary strategies.

Comparing population trend estimates of migratory birds from breeding censuses and capture data at a spring migration bottleneck

Europe has a well-established network of breeding bird monitoring that is used to produce supranational indices of population trends for many species. However, a comparison of breeding bird censuses with other methods may be beneficial to confirm the validity of such indices. The aim of this study was to assess the value of standardized capture data of migratory birds at migration bottlenecks as an indicator of the effective breeding populations. One limitation to this method is that several populations are co-occurring at these bottlenecks and their catchment areas need to be clearly identified to allow extrapolation of population indices. Here, we used standardized trends in capture numbers of 30 species on the island of Ponza, a migration bottleneck in the central Mediterranean, and compared them to population trends estimated in the putative catchment breeding areas between 2005 and 2016. The catchment areas were identified through the analysis of ring recoveries during the breeding season of birds passing through Ponza. Our results show an agreement between the population trends observed on Ponza and those in the breeding areas in 15 out of 30 species. The correlations were strongest in species with a more robust definition of the catchment areas, that is, species with more than 10 recoveries, and for which the recoveries were most likely of breeding birds. The main reason for disagreement between the two indices in the remaining species might be related to different intensity of sampling in different areas. This issue can be solved by further developing monitoring projects in underrepresented countries, as well as by intensifying monitoring through ringing, both in the breeding grounds and at migration bottlenecks. These results show that spring migration monitoring at bottlenecks has the potential to provide a valuable complement and an independent control of breeding bird surveys, allowing raising early warnings of population declines and contributing to their conservation.

Long-distance natal dispersal is relatively frequent and correlated with environmental factors in a widespread raptor

Dispersal is a critical process influencing population dynamics and responses to global change. Long-distance dispersal (LDD) can be especially important for gene flow and adaptability, although little is known about the factors influencing LDD because studying large-scale movements is challenging and LDD tends to be observed less frequently than shorter-distance dispersal (SDD). We sought to understand patterns of natal dispersal at a large scale, specifically aiming to understand the relative frequency of LDD compared to SDD and correlates of dispersal distances. We used bird banding and encounter data for American kestrels (Falco sparverius) to investigate the effects of sex, migration strategy, population density, weather, year and agricultural land cover on LDD frequency, LDD distance and SDD distance in North America from 1961 to 2015. Nearly half of all natal dispersal (48.9%) was LDD (classified as >30 km), and the likelihood of LDD was positively associated with the proportion of agricultural land cover around natal sites. Correlates of distance differed between LDD and SDD movements. LDD distance was positively correlated with latitude, a proxy for migration strategy, suggesting that migratory individuals disperse farther than residents. Distance of LDD in males was positively associated with maximum summer temperature. We did not find sex-bias or an effect of population density in LDD distance or frequency. Within SDD, females tended to disperse farther than males, and distance was positively correlated with density. Sampling affected all responses, likely because local studies more frequently capture SDD within study areas. Our findings that LDD occurs at a relatively high frequency and is related to different proximate factors from SDD, including a lack of sex-bias in LDD, suggest that LDD may be more common than previously reported, and LDD and SDD may be distinct processes rather than two outcomes originating from a single dispersal distribution. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that LDD and SDD may be separate processes in an avian species, and suggests that environmental change may have different outcomes on the two processes.

Integrating stable isotopes, parasite, and ring-reencounter data to quantify migratory connectivity-A case study with Barn Swallows breeding in Switzerland, Germany, Sweden, and Finland

Ecosystems around the world are connected by seasonal migration. The migrant animals themselves are influenced by migratory connectivity through effects on the individual and the population level. Measuring migratory connectivity is notoriously difficult due to the simple requirement of data conveying information about the nonbreeding distribution of many individuals from several breeding populations. Explicit integration of data derived from different methods increases the precision and the reliability of parameter estimates. We combine ring-reencounter, stable isotope, and blood parasite data of Barn Swallows Hirundo rustica in a single integrated model to estimate migratory connectivity for three large scale breeding populations across a latitudinal gradient from Central Europe to Scandinavia. To this end, we integrated a non-Markovian multistate mark-recovery model for the ring-reencounter data with normal and binomial mixture models for the stable isotope and parasite data. The integration of different data sources within a mark-recapture modeling framework enables the most precise quantification of migratory connectivity on the given broad spatial scale. The results show that northern-breeding populations and Southern Africa as well as southern-breeding populations and Western-Central Africa are more strongly connected through Barn Swallow migration than central European breeding populations with any of the African wintering areas. The nonbreeding distribution of Barn Swallows from central European breeding populations seems to be a mixture of those populations breeding further north and south, indicating a migratory divide.

Using genetic markers to unravel the origin of birds converging towards pre-migratory sites

Identifying patterns of individual movements in spatial and temporal scales can provide valuable insight into the structure of populations and the dynamics of communities and ecosystems. Especially for migrating birds, that can face a variety of unfavorable conditions along their journey, resolving movements of individuals across their annual cycle is necessary in order to design better targeted conservation strategies. Here, we studied the movements of a small migratory falcon, the Lesser Kestrel (Falco naumanni), by genetically assigning feathers from individuals of unknown origin that concentrate in large roosts during the pre-migratory period. Our findings suggest that birds from multiple breeding populations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean region move towards two pre-migratory sites in the Balkans, some of them detouring greatly from their expected flyways, travelling more than 500 km to reach these sites and prepare for the post-nuptial migration. By identifying the origin of individuals using the pre-migratory sites, not only we provide a better understanding of the possible impact of local threats at these sites on multiple breeding populations but also inform the design of effective conservation actions for the species.

Timing and body condition of dichromatic Black Redstarts during autumn migration

Individual variation in postjuvenile molt in male Black Redstart is pronounced with about 90% of young males retaining female‐like coloration (cairei plumage type) and about 10% acquiring adult male‐like feathers (paradoxus plumage type). We examined whether autumn migration timing and body condition differed between individuals of the two plumage types. We used the data of 10,977 Black Redstarts captured during autumn at a ringing site in northern Switzerland where a protocol to record plumage types of captures has been applied since 1980. As cairei individuals cannot be distinguished from young females while sexing is comparatively easy for paradoxus individuals, the proportion of missing data on sex was likely to be higher for cairei individuals than for paradoxus individuals. We formally accounted for captures with unidentified sex using a Bayesian approach and conducted a simulation study to show that our approach was able to provide unbiased results even if the proportion of unsexed captures was high. Applying the method to the Black Redstart data, we found that the proportion of individuals with paradoxus plumage type increased from 7.6% in 1980 to 18.1% in 2013. Individuals with the paradoxus plumage type were on average 0.25 g heavier and had 0.62 mm longer third primaries than individuals with the cairei plumage type. However, we found no support for our expectation of later migration of paradoxus males compared to cairei individuals based on the assumption that paradoxus individuals should occupy autumn territories like adult males. Our results shed new light on the understudied timing of autumn migration in birds and are in line with available studies on Black Redstarts, suggesting a molt‐constraint that allows only young males in good body condition to molt into adult‐like plumages.